Arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history is picking up steam in a major way. And it is doing so 13 years after it first began–at this same Miami Open.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be facing each other for the 37th time in their careers and for the third time already this season when they battle for the Miami title on Sunday afternoon. Federer and Nadal went 15 months without a single meeting before colliding at both the Australian Open and the Indian Wells Masters earlier this year. The Swiss survived a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 thriller to triumph Down Under before destroying Nadal 6-2, 6-3 in an all-too-early fourth-round showdown in the California desert.
Nadal still leads the overall head-to-head series 23-13, but it is now tied up 9-9 on hard courts. The two all-time greats have squared off three times in Miami, where each of their first two encounters took place. Nadal cruised 6-3, 6-3 back in 2004, Federer prevailed 2-6, 6-7(4), 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-1 in the 2005 final, and Nadal got the job done 6-3, 6-2 in 2011.
This one almost did not come to fruition. Federer has been the dominant player of 2017 with an 18-1 record and titles in Melbourne and Indian Wells, but it was far from one-way traffic for him in the quarterfinals and semis. After saving two match points to outlast Tomas Berdych 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6), the 35-year-old returned one day later and battled past Nick Kyrgios 7-6(9), 6-7(9), 7-6(5) in three hours and 10 minutes. Federer preceded those results with more routine defeats of Frances Tiafoe, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Roberto Bautista Agut.
“He’s playing so good,” Nadal commented. “That’s all, no? He’s playing great. When (a) top player like him is playing that well, then it’s always a big challenge for every player. That’s all.”
Nadal endured only one real scare on the way to his fifth Miami final. The sixth-ranked Spaniard got bageled in the first set of his third-round date with Philipp Kohlschreiber, but he recovered to win 0-6, 6-2, 6-3. Nadal also boasts straight-set victories over Dudi Sela, Nicolas Mahut, Jack Sock, and Fabio Fognini.
The 14-time major champion is still in search of his first Miami title, currently saddle with an 0-4 record in finals. This one should be more competitive than what transpired in Indian Wells, but Federer is battle-hardened thanks to Berdych and Kyrgios and a full day off will restored whatever energy was sapped in those thrillers. Given the way he is hitting his backhand, which had been his waterloo against Nadal in the past, Federer should make it three in a row at his rival’s expense.
Pick: Federer in 2
[polldaddy poll=9713040]
Hi everyone. This is the 2nd time I post here, but usually read lots of comments. Respect for those who are so dedicated to comment here while watching the matches.
As a Federer fan, who first of all loves tennis, I have deep appreciation for Nadal fans who are not generalizing about Fed fans. I don’t really think that ALL of those people cheering for Roger are real fans. Most of them are friends and families just going out as they would at cinema, basketball matches etc. It’s a matter of personal ethics and education. Federer fans are human beings from different social classes, different levels of education, perceptions etc. They can’t be put in the same category as you can’t do with Nadal or Djokovic fans.
I think Roger himself is feeling very uncomfortable when having the type of Roland Garros/US Open crowd vs Djokovic on his side. They put too much pressure on him, have high expectations, while Djoko becomes stronger and more motivated inside sensing the heroic opportunity arisen for himself ( being able to beat Fed EVEN when 90% of the crowd it’s on his side). At the end of the day it feels ‘easier’ to lose a hard match when the crowd is against you (your brain somehow justifies it plus some victimization going on :)), than having the entire court cheering at your opponent’s double fault and then lose the match, despite having such a ‘lovely’ support.
I’ve seen SOME Nadal fans are trying to justify Fed victories over and over again. Let’s take the match against Kyrgios for example. Let’s analyze the statistics…I’ll not go deep. After 2 sets, 1:1 was the fair score. It could have been 2:0 or 0:2 also. Kyrgios could have won it all, agree. Crowd was quite awful. But that’s not to say Roger won undeservedly. That 35 old guy played more than 3 hours against a 21 y.o. hot and talented player and hit more winners (what a surprise right?). There is a reason why he survived against Nadal in the 5th set, Berdych and Kyrgios. When it happens once ( e.g. Donskoy) you can call this guy lucky. When it happens consistently, this is master class.
Again, I have much respect for Nadal and for most players. Even if you are ranked 115th you still earned it. You might not have Nadal’s defensive skills, Federer’s creativity or Djokovic strength, but you worked a lot to get there and deserve to be treated equally well on the court and off it.
I think disagreements arise when people can’t control their ego, which is way too much associated with their favorite player. Let’s not take it too personal. I hope Roger wins tomorrow. If not, will be happy for Rafa. Yes, I am able to find joy in Fed’s defeats and at the same time being his fan. He can’t and probably shouldn’t win everything.
I hope this website/forum remains/becomes a balanced place to enjoy, exchanging opinions about tennis. I so hope and believe that’s possible. At the moment this forum is playing a tiebreak. There is one side that knows what respect and balance is and the other trying to break it. It’s 6:4 for us with 2 match points. Fortunately not Federer is on the other side of the net.
A lot of what you said I agree with.
As much as I hated to see Rafa lose, I was amazed seeing what Federer achieved playing as well as he did.
I also love watching tennis played at it’s best as in last night’s semifinal at a much better level than Rafa’s semifinal.
However, for me I was unable to enjoy the match because of the crowd. I disagree that Fed is uncomfortable with the crowd being loud and boisterous in his favour. He has encouraged it in the past and has never commented that the fans should be respectful of both players.
https://www.si.com/tennis/2017/03/30/ap-ten-federer-crowd-noise
He generalizes here but he knows the difference between good spirited cheers vs boos, jeers and calling out during serves and balls in play and doesn’t mention that. Of course he likes it.
I also firmly believe that Nole does not enjoy the crowd against him constantly and primarily vs Fed. He was able to learn to channel the crowd against him but only for so long and I believe it has taken its toll and is part of his long slump.
The crowd played a factor in both wins over Berdych and Kyrgios in a negative way IMO.
You seem like a great fedfan Eugene. Hope you stick around. We’ve lost a few good ones like yourself as well as one Nole fan (danica) and one Murray fan (deuce) who got tired of constant attacks from the couple of (mostly one) crazy so called Rafans.
Lately TT is getting a better mix and I hope it continues. Need a few Nole fans and Murray fans. TX has a better mix but the moderator there is unfair.
TG I mean.
#OldHabits
hawkeye, I agree. At some point Roger should send a personal message to the public – being more respectful towards his opponents.
Yeah I doubt it would make any difference unless he actually did it during a match and not many players I can think if would ever do that.
Well, maybe just one LOL.
Yup, but it is only a matter of time before TT gets more Nole and Murray fans too. We are getting new people here.
#TTforever
and I copide you lol. TG I mean!! not TT haha
Wise words, Eugene. I don’t find as much of a problem with the crowd as some others. I do think Roger could and should publicly suggest that fans show respect to all players. Stepping back a bit, I wonder if tennis as a sport should consider trying to shed some of its elitist, ‘gentlemanly’ traditions, and crowd noise/interference is one of them. NBA players on the road shoot free throws with thousands of fans screaming abuse at them. Players in most sports deal with this kind of thing. I realize it would be a big change, but maybe tennis could look into becoming a bit less precious about it.
That’s a separate issue from the special treatment Fed gets when playing, but I doubt there’s anything to be done about that. I know when I’m watching at home I cheer great shots by Federer’s opponents, and I groaned when Kyrgios double faulted in the 3rd set tie-break. I’ve never understood fans who cheer DFs, but I don’t understand a lot of things people do.
AT 7:53 PM says: “We’ve lost a few good ones like yourself as well as one Nole fan (danica) and one Murray fan (deuce) who got tired of constant attacks from the couple of (mostly one) crazy so called Rafans.”
¤ Poster ‘danica’ has never posted on the GS and she was happy that the Tennistalk disappeared (according to her own comment that someone copied from the Tennis-X and inserted into the Grandstand).
¤ Poster ‘deucy’ wrote on the Grandstand: “…I can’t stand Uncle T. I think he is a bully…”
I typed the same her sentence in Google Search and saw almost the same written on the Tennis-X: Margot Says: “…Re: Uncle Toni. I think he is a bully…” (March 22nd, 2015)
I believe that there is not enough U.Toni haters for her taste on the GS (and obviousy there is a lot of haters on the Tennis-X; Fedlovers, for example, have always hated Toni).
good post and welcome to Tenngrand. We need good Fed fans here. keep posting ! 🙂
Thanks vamosrafa.
Eugene- I’ve only been following this site for a couple years at MOST, so I don’t know what it was like before that. But at least in terms of people who comment, this site very Rafa-centric. All of these sites seem to be biased to either Federer or Nadal (unfortunate in my opinion), but I choose to follow this site over the others because the majority of people have a good appreciation for the game and it’s players, and aren’t here strictly to troll Federer or Nadal. You’re right that those types of people aren’t really tennis fans… Every one of these sites has at least a few of those types, but I’ve found that the Grandstand seems to have much fewer of them than other sites. Let’s face it- there are shitty trolling “fans” of both Federer and Nadal who believe that they are somehow different from the other guy’s shitty fans. And even though it could appear at times that pro-Rafa people on here are bashing anyone who simply likes Roger Federer, I don’t think I’m naive in saying that almost all of them are strictly bashing the shitty Federer fans, or “Fedfawns” as Hawkeye calls them, and not just anyone who just likes Federer…
All of these sites are naturally biased- we’re dealing with arguably the two best players ever, and that means a lot of tension. But I find this site to be much more enjoyable and respectful than others I’ve experienced… Welcome!
Solid take Kevin.
Helpful. Thanks. Indeed, I checked other sites. And I like this most.
@Eugene…Hey hey hey!!…Great great analysis and I liked it very much!Yeah,like u love Roger,I also love rafa and wish/want him to win but if Roger win,it’s okay for me either…yeah,of coz will hurt and disappointed if Rafa lose but IMO be positive is very important..for me if u win it is because it was meant for u..same if u lose..i usually not pondered over it for too long..it’s no use to rationalize something that is not ours to decide…
Same with Roger’s amazing arisen atm…I only can ooh! aah and wow!..and I believe everybody has their shares and moment in this life…if u look the trend/pattern..at this time last year..it’s novak’s time..he’s winning everything and conquered the world and everything in it..and then Andy and his incredible surged till the end of the year..and out of nowhere The Maestro and his amazing comeback…I just wish[from this pattern at least]that Rafa will taste his own heaven after this…that’s all I can do…Hoping..
But,enjoyed reading your comment Eugene!Hope u will come here more often!
This is the reason that Federer will beat Nadal the 4th time in a row http://www.138mph.com/rogers-backhand-the-new-kid-in-town/
…speaking of fedfawns.
Don’t even need to click the link to know it’s fedfawning propaganda besed on your posts.
Federazzi are everywhere lol.
Kavita, are you not tired yet of bombarding us with your links? Sharing is good, but too much sharing not.
Kavita,you are like a chinese water torture specialist.
I think that Nadal has the will and the gust to win Federer who is exhausted after he batteled last two matches …remember that he is 35 years old.
Almost 36. He doesn’t show it.
Im not saying posters should agree on everything, and i wouldnt want them to either, as thats the whole point in having a blog, i think you will always get sites that are heavy with fan groups, depending on a players success rate, TX was terrible a while ago with alot of bullying Novak fans,and their name calling, thankfully it seems to have calmed down alot there now lately, this site seems more diverse ….
Yeah, Alison, it would indeed be boring if there was all agreeing and no debating! That’s why more Federer fans should be join here.
I am all for fans of Fed and Novak and Murray and others posting here. The more diversity, the better the discussions.
I hope that the people who are just discovering this site, stay and join in the discussions. I don’t mind disagreement, as long as it’s respectful. Insults, name calling and personal attacks are the kind of things to which I prefer not to respond.
Three cheers for respectful debate.
#MissouriIsNorth
#WhenYouLiveDownUnder
three more cheers! 😉
yes, it is great to have fans of other stars here. We can fight with them instead of among ourselves!
Alison Hodge (AT 9:10 PM) says: “TX was terrible a while ago with alot of bullying Novak fans…”
It’s refreshing to read the truth! 🙂
at 10:38 PM,
How would YOU know. YOU don’t even post there! LOL
AT 10:56 PM,
I trust Alison.
Agree Ali!!!!This site is a little bit calm and respectful to other poster’s and despite Hawks/Augusta ‘loving’ brother/sister’s banter with each other..i would say this site way more amateur in terms of nastiness,brutality and disrespectful towards other poster’s which is VERY AWESOME!!YOU GUYS ARE ALL AMAZING!!Keep doing that guys!!
Let Nole start playing well and all the bullies would be back on tx. Incidentally, hawks, I occasionally post there. A different moniker.
I know.
😉
😉
Was supposed to be a smiley wink.
ok don’t say the name (Sean will put me under moderation double quick) but you know who I am on tx?
Tiggy picks Rafa:
If he can swing as freely as he did there, and keep the points as short, there’s no reason he can’t win again. Nadal insists that the dynamic between them hasn’t shifted in Federer’s favor, but it’s going to be up to him to turn it back in his favor. He’ll need to find ways not just to hit the ball to Federer’s backhand, but to make sure he pushes Federer back in the court when he does. While Rafa got tight trying to finish off Fabio Fognini in the semifinals, he has been sharp in Miami so far, and there’s no question that he’d like to avoid going 0-5 in finals here.
What should favor Rafa the most, though, is that semifinal Federer had to play with Nick Kyrgios on Friday. Federer has been extremely good this season when he’s been rested, but his level dropped as this week progressed and his time on court mounted. He had to save match points against Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, and while he played brilliantly against Kyrgios, he had to do it for three hours.
I didn’t think Federer would have the energy to beat the 21-year-old Aussie in the semis, but he proved me wrong. Can he do it again?
Winner: Nadal
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2017/04/previewing-roger-federer-versus-rafael-nadal/65160/
Only Fed would know how fresh he is. Like I said, if this were being played the next day, rafa would surely have won. He has had a day’s rest now and knowing he has a long break coming, he can give it all in the final. However, the marathon semi will have some effect on him I guess but the outcome will only be in Rafa’s favor if the the Spaniard is able to play aggressively, return well and serve well because Fed’s going to be more determined than ever to keep the points short.
Tiggy still thinks it’s on Rafa’s racquet as do I.
It’s a shame Kyrgios let the crowd’s actions get to him. I think he should win the match if he didn’t let the first set slipped away from him when he had the lead, such was his inexperience, taking it easy and now would regret it. The match was his to take if he had won that first set.
Both Berdych and Kygrios buckled under pressure in the last few points of their matches when theyre in the TB to decide who’s the winner. Fed was the more steady one and so won both times. Funny that Fed had to get to so many TBs in order to win; against Agut its two TBs where Fed won both. Such were the narrow margins that Fed beat his opponents.
That’s why I believe it’s on Rafa’s racquet.
Shows Fed is mentally very strong. Nerves of steel.
#GOAT
Well Mary, that’s partly because Fed was winning so much lately; a few losses and who knows the doubts might come back. He didn’t need to face a Djoko of AO2016 this year; that to him might be a big relief. After winning his no.18th, he’s now more relaxed. If he lost that AO final to Rafa, chances are he won’t be as confident as he is now; winning titles does make one feels good about oneself and then confidence starts to build.
And that’s why I was so disappointed that Rafa lost that Acapulco final. I mean winning a title would mean that Rafa was doing things right and so his confidence would then be restored, at least to some extent, better than losing and doubting again. I think he would play better at IW if he won that Acapulco title.
That’s the point. It’s about winning titles. If Rafa had won the AO he might be the one on a roll right now. Doubts can change be back if a player starts losing.
Rafa needs to win titles. That will give him real confidence and belief. I think he will get there.
Batista-Agut played better than any of Nadal’s opponents in Miami (first set against Kohls excepted) -never mind Berdych and especially Kyrgios. Just going with the last, I don’t see that Nadal’s level is near Kyrgios’ at the moment. In contrast, I think Roger’s level is very near what it was at IW. He played near his best, overall, in that semi-final. It’s just that Kyrgios is probably the 2nd best player in the world at the moment and also played very well. Unless Nadal can raise his game significantly, I see tomorrow’s final as following a similar pattern to their IW match. Maybe Rafa can indeed raise his game to that level, but I haven’t seen evidence of it in his last four matches. The match is on Federer’s racquet in any case.
Never was since 2007 or indoors.
Joe, you must be joking comparing Rafa to Kygrios. They are different types of players, and, it’s always the counter punching types of players who have the better of Fed – Rafa, Djoko; Murray and Simon at times, even Monfils. Fed rarely has problems vs attacking type or big serving/big hitting players, so far Delpo being the only exception yet Fed beat him 16 out of 21 times they played.
Rafa certainly won’t be playing like Kygrios, he has his own way of counter punching cum aggression.
Agut has no major weapons, he just runs and runs, hitting flat shots and making Fed run with him. Sock OTOH has a big serve and big FH, however Rafa didn’t allow Sock to play his game esp in set one. It’s not like Sock was playing badly, Rafa was aggressive vs Sock, and Sock was’nt comfortable defending.
I was surprised that Agut could push Fed to two TB sets, when in the past Fed would dispatch him easily. Agut exposed Fed’s weakness, i.e. his slowness in covering his FH corner, compared to the Fed of the past. Kygrios in the SF was hitting CC to Fed’s BH most of the times, and when he hit a DTL shot to Fed’s FH, he won the point.
Players are intimidated by Fed’s BH yet they play into his hands by hitting there most of the time. From what I’ve seen, only Agut had tried to attack Fed’s FH when he got the chances; Rafa should do like Agut did, mix it up and be less predictable.
If this Miami match was just after AO, I would have said Rafa will win. But after the IW drubbing, I am not sure. He does sound more confident though. Maybe he has an ace up his sleeve if not on his serve.
Just watched the highlights again. Don’t think Nadal can beat Fed at the moment. He’s stepping into his shots and taking as much time away from his opponent as humanly possible. Playing with almost perfect efficiency.
Nadal doesn’t have an answer to that at the moment, he’s topspin forehand doesn’t keep his opponent back in the court like it use to even though he is playing better than he was 12 months ago.
Fed in 3.
Spot on analysis, Jim. Only thing I would add is that Roger’s ROS has taken a quantum leap ahead recently. The way he was returning some of those Kyrgios bombs makes me think that there won’t be many easy service games for Rafa.
But I’m curious: why/how do you think Rafa will manage to take a set? Just because he’s Nadal playing Federer? (that’s as good an answer as any, I think).
I’m giving Rafa the benefit of the doubt that he’ll take a set because Fed is on a 3-match win streak (Rafa will throw everything at this), Fed dropped sets and had a tougher draw physically coming into the final and Rafa has dropped only 1 set in Miami.
Fed in 2 or 3. I’ll stick with 3 based on the above.
Fair enough.
I am hoping that Rafa can pull this one out. I saw that Fed was sweating throughout and the long match can only hurt older bones. IMO the absence of Nole Murray and an iffy Rafa is helping Fed vulture these wins.
Msybe. At 35 and a half, age is always a potential factor. And, for many years now, Roger has generally not played as well in the daytime heat as he has in the evening. That’a a potential edge to Nadal, but he himself is nearly 31 and doesn’t have the stamina he used to.
Regarding the absence of Nole and Murray, I would agree only with respect to Nole (Federer has pretty much owned Andy for the last few years and I think the pattern would continue if he’s in this form), and only with respect to Nole’s form of 2015-16. He’s clearly not been the same player since then, and in their current form I like Roger’s chances.
Well..Contrary to some beliefs that the match on Roger’s racquet[in some way..yeah]..but Rafa also has a chance to win IF he’s apply an aggressive play[and of coz he’s already knew this] and not stick with his conservative and traditional play..FH/BH,FH/BH,FH/BH till forever[rolling eyes!]..the difference between in the past and now is that Rafa combined a defensive and offensive skills really well..he knows how to get defensive and when the opportunity arrived..boom!there comes the winners from everywhere!He’s the master of the defense to offense attack…I just hope he realize that he’s still be able to beat Rog with all that quality..all he have to do is put some belief and confidence in himself that he can do it…
I think he’s gonna do it tomorrow, Mira! 🙂
YAY Kevin!!!!Give me a virtual high five Kev!!Wooohooo!!
Mira, I love your passionate defense of Nadal. A true fan! For your sake I hope you are right. However, I think Hawkeye’s words above apply:
“… you are describing a game that Rafa has not been able to play consistently over the course of a match vs Fedole in a long time.
His progress is in the right direction but is very slow and Federer has been outpacing him.”
Are you a Fed fan , Joe?
No Mary. He’s now a hawkeye fan.
Can’t stop not responding to My posts as promised ? ? ?.
#Humb1e
Lol!
Hawk: I think you have some perceptive things to say, which I believe is more than you’ve ever said about me. I propose a truce, and you can take whatever bragging rights you want about promises that can’t be kept and so forth. I’m not interested in making internet (or any) enemies, especially when it comes to something as trivial as disagreement about sports; I really do find it boring. What do you say?
On the contrary joe, based on your continual digs on Rafa and responses to other posts including mine, you don’t find it boring at all.
You quite enjoy it.
Yes I am, Mary. At least, he’s my favourite player of the big four, even though there are a few other lower ranked players I like more. How about you?
I am a Rafa fan. I like Muzz, Fed too ( though reluctantly). Currently I do not like Nole but that might change.
I don’t believe that Joe is being sincere regarding his love for MA’s passionate defence either.
More like he loves his own condescension. Yeah that’s it.
@Joe…hahaha… thank u for your words up there..ermm..yeah,I appreciate very much your honest comments and of coz you are right and hawks also is right with his statement regarding Rafa and BELIEVE ME Joe I know what you are saying and I’m aware of the current reality that things a little bit unreal for rafa to win…BUT as a Rafa fan who’s already withstand and shared the painful slump in his career and we’ve done it a multiple times already..you name it Joe and we’ve tasted all of it…I don’t think have a hope and believe is too much atm Joe..If Rafa just give one statement that saying that he don’t believe he can’t win anymore and just playing for fun and not for glory anymore,i will be happily sit back and just enjoy his tennis without much hope…
But the thing is,Rafa still very much BELIEVE that he can win..slam or Masters..pre AO,he’s already gave a very clear statement about it and who am I to question his motivation and his still passionate desire to win?Same with Roger…before AO,the last time he won a slam was Wimby 12 right?And that was 4 years ago!..and in span of that time,i’ve read a 100’s of articles that degraded and some of it almost insulted that Rog will never win a slam again…and look at how he silenced those who don’t believe in him at AO…I,for one would NEVER EVER discounted a BIG 4 because they’re a very special species who can turn things around in a blink of an eye…and in this case..as long as Rafa still believe..so am I Joe!He’s not too far away strayed and he’s already been to his 3rd final this year….Surely,it’s not that bad Joe?..Nice chatting with u Joe!….VAMOS RAFA!!!WOOOHOOOO!!
Mira, I think you are right that Rafa believes he can still win slams; otherwise I’m not sure he would keep playing. You’re also right that by any objective measure he has done very well this year. Let’s hope for a good match tomorrow, even if you and I will be cheering for opposite sides.
Yeah Joe!I wish u,Rog and other Fedfans here a very very gooooood luck for tonight’s match…and if Rog win,u will find my honest and sincere congrats here tomorrow Joe!..Good day @ night @ afternoon wherever u are Joe!!VAMOS!!
It’s funny how before Miami started, Federer said that making the semis in Miami would be an “unbelievable run”…
Turned out to be pretty accurate. He’s done well in three tough matches to make the final.
Being 36 years old is a bad excuse considering fed just won A.O. and those are long 3 set minimum matches. But in the end, both fed and nadal are great competitors and only one can win. So I say this match is up in the air for either to win because they both are good.
So its 80: 20 here in Rogers favor over here for the win including many Rafa fans …
Most likely result yes given that confidence plays a huge part in any tennis match and Roger is riding very high on it now..and Rafa..not so much given that though made 3 finals..not won anything yet..
The AO final loss, Rafa may have been caught offguard as he did not expect Fed to take it out of his hand and after the Dimi match no matter how much any Fed fan argues, Rafa was not at his physical best for the final…however was very disappointed how he responded at IW..hence I am hoping Rafa makes it a pride issue to fight the best he can tomorrow…This is a title that has eluded him and he does not want 2011 vs Nole to repeat here against Fed…
However great the rivalry has been, there have been many lop sided matches between these 2…RG 2008, Rome 2013, Miami 2011, IW 2013 in Rafas favor and WTF 2011, IW 2017, IW 2012 in Feds favor
Hoping for a Rafa win 🙂
Sanju: That sounds about right to me. And, although you’re right about confidence, it has to be based on something. For Fed, of course, that is recent results in the first instance. Nadal has had good results too, apart from the elusive title thus far this year.
For me, the match comes down to this. At the moment, I see Roger as having a clear advantage in serve and ROS. He also has a greater proven capacity to hit winners off the BH, and maybe the FH. His net game is better. Their mobility is about even, as is (I think) their consistency from the baseline. Nadal will probably be a bit fresher, and in recent years Federer generally has not been as good in the mid-day sun as he has been under the lights. If fatigue comes into play, then Rafa may be able to capitalize. But if Federer plays anything near the level of his last match, or even any match thus far in Miami, I just don’t see Nadal having the weapons or consistency to beat him tomorrow. We’ll soon find out.
Agree except ‘or even any match thus far in Miami’. If he plays at the level he did against Berdych or Agut..he is in for a tough one..
Feds serve has always been great..what has made difference is his ROS (no more just block or chip), he is stepping in and crushing it and putting opponent on defensive in the first 2 shots itself and ofcourse the coming over the BH rather than slice it most times…If you notice Fed did this in 1st set of AO 2012 semi too and jumped to 4 1 lead rightaway but somehow could not hold it and reverted back to his original play..difference is that he is now consistently doing this throughout the match..I am sure Rafa realizes this now and will come up with a plan to not play into Feds hands ..he has to mix it up all the time and ofcourse make it very physical and made Fed runa nd stretch him on his FH..
Rafa has also to hit his top spin FH very deep and not drop it short for Fed to crush it..Feds ability to hit winners will drop substantially if Rafa is able to keep the ball very deep
Yes, you may be right about that. He played terrific in the first set against Berdych but then dropped in the 2nd. I think Rafa’s best baseline tactic may indeed be to hit to Roger’s FH more, especially if he can hit the DTLFH.
I don’t care whether Rafa wins or loses today. Let him play well and give me hope that he is moving closer to his best.
Who you guys think will be more nervous heading into this one? Till AO, remember people expected Rafa to win most times and pressure was on him, I feel now Fed carries the pressure more than Rafa..The only pressure on Rafa is to capture Miami..
I really think winning the AO took all the pressure off Roger, and that’s part of the reason he’s now playing so well. He had been trying to win that slam for so long and coming up short, I think he just surprised himself by winning it. The fact that it came against Rafa was icing on the cake. Maybe there’s more on Rafa because he hasn’t won this tournament, but I think he’s too experienced and too much of a champ to let it get to him.
Agree Joe!We can see very clearly how confident Rog is atm from his body language,his shots..no hesitation whatsoever…But Rafa is another story…been in a final twice and lost..and one to Querry of all player,surely the pressure very well sit on his shoulder atm..but like u said,i don’t think it mattered much to him…but if today,his serve is not working very well,he maybe get nervous and Rog certainly will take advantage of that..hopefully Rafa will find a solution to Rog’s puzzle today…But if he fails,that’s okay…try again next time…
Mira, I think Rafa will just move on to clay, whether he wins this Miami title or not. I feel it’s his fans that can’t move on, somewhat feeling regrets that he couldn’t win a Miami title.
I feel Rafa and his team have clay as his target, perhaps they’re more realistic than Rafa’s many fans; realizing that his best bet is still on the clay courts, with HCs now favoring the big servers cum big hitters and the attacking players.
Rafa’s best bets on HCs were during 2010 and then 2013, when he had his good to great serve to help him, plus his still very lethal FH, great footwork and foot speed, and aggressive play. After his back injury, he’s no longer the same, with his serve suffering the greatest impact from that back injury imo.
I do feel positive about his clay court season, I mean if he can reach HC finals despite not being at his best, more so will he do even better on clay.
Lucky…Very agree with everything u said..Rafa is a very professional..if he lost in any tournament,he rarely pondered about it for long..he once said,as soon as he get’s home,he already can forget about his loss..except for a few painful tournament that stayed with him for an amount of time..same with Novak,Roger and Andy..
As for fan’s,i think when you’re hoping too much and to see him lose when your almost grasp the trophy especially on certain tournament,it is really hard to accept..but we have no choice..accept it we must and move on after that…
About clay,like u and many fan’s,i hope he’s going to have a very positive one..because clay is a very crucial for him..have a good one then all will be okay in Rafaland but if it’s not…every confidence and his self belief will suffered once again and only God knows when or how it will restored back to it’s place…I just wish rafa can survive this year without injury..then everything will get better and better…Insyaallah…
After seeing how well he does on the HCs( reaching finals in major events), I’m confident that Rafa will do well on clay (without injury). Don’t have to worry too much about him on clay, he will be fine.
Okay Lucky!..Hey,I’ve just gave an article about Rafa a few minutes ago …read it and please give your opinion Lucky..i want to hear it from u..
Some points I would like to say after going through all the above posts:
1) Kyrgios losing the match was not due to the crowd (of course the crowd was as pathetic as it can get at a tennis match). Regarding the belief that he double faulted because of the crowd is pretty lame. Kyrgios redlined pretty similar 2nd serves against his wins over Nole in crunch situations. That’s where he got the belief and confidence to go for a huge 2nd serve not because of the crowd jeering him (Even Federer lost a point in the 2nd set TB due to someone shouting ‘out’ from the crowd. Given how closely the TB was contested, it could have even helped Roger win the 2nd set TB) The crowd was pretty much the same throughout the 2nd and 3rd set. But Kyrgios held himself pretty well in all those moments.
2) The match was never on Kyrgios racquet at any stage. It was a very evenly competed contest (Rather Federer had some +15 Winners/UE ratio as compared to +5 of Nick) So to say it was Kyrgios who faltered at the end is maybe exaggerating it a bit. Though I would agree that Berdych did faltered to close it out( but that is what Berdych has been doing for such a long time no)
3) The reason for Federer being the probable favourite is because Federer played in the semi at a level which Rafa has not been able to display in any of his matches so far. But, since tennis is a sport and anything can happen in a sport on any given day, Rafa can come out playing at a higher level than what Federer showed. My guess is just as good as anyone’s else in that regards.
4) Now comes the question for which I would really like to offer my 2 cents on: How is Roger able to do it?
First things first.. when Roger took the injury break, he was still playing at pretty high level for past 2.5 yrs i.e 2014-15, made it to the semis of AO & almost made it to the finals of Wimby. So it’s not like he suddenly started playing so well at 35+. He was playing as good as today in 2014 and 2015 & even 2016 AO. It was just that Nole was playing at an even higher level that denied Roger some big titles. I think that injury break rather made Fed feel more fresh and willing to go.
Secondly, from the time I have been following Roger, his game has always appeared to me as one which doesn’t need much rhythm or court time to start middling the ball as he would want to (unlike Rafa or Nole). Rather it just depends on how he is feeling the ball on the given day. One match he is striking the ball cleanly, very next day he will start spraying & shanking it. So more of a ‘feeling it’ player than a rhythm player. So even 1 or 2 matches are sometimes good enough to get his shots going.
Thirdly, the manner in which Fed won the AO, has given him immense belief and confidence that he can still come on top in any match whatsoever the situation might be. That confidence is what Federer used to have during his glory years which Fed himself has brought out on occassions in his interview in the past. This confidence is helping him to go for his shots and play better in tight situations (of course not having to face 2015-2016.5 Nole helps ).
Lastly, Federer probably has more elements and variety in his game (just my opinion) than anyone else on the tour that I have seen. That helps him win many matches because some elements of his game prove good enough to carry him through even on his bad days.
Some astute comments. As one who suggested that the match may have been on Kyrgios’ racquet, I’d just say that is mostly about his serve. He is now in the habit of hitting the hardest second serves I have ever seen, and if he can do that without DF very often, it makes him very hard to break. But you are right that Roger had the higher net winners, and once the ball is returned into play, Federer objectively has a slight edge. I also think you are right that Roger’s level is higher, but not much higher, than it has been for the last three years or so. He was denied a major title three times by Nole at his very best (I also think Roger choked in the 2015 (and maybe end of 2014 Wimby title matches). The major change came when he upgraded his racquet. There is no other good explanation for his markedly improved play from 2014-present.
Precisely. The change came with his racquet.
And as far Federer choking in 2015 is concerned, I would just say that he should have won the US Open final but Novak got the better of him in crunch situations. Wimbledon, Roger didn’t choked! Novak was simply playing the best grass court tennis I’ve seen him play in his career. In my opinion, only Federer having his very best day with his FH and serve might have been able to come unscathed that day. Heck, I can’t even say for sure that Fed/Rafa of 2008 Wimby would have been able to defeat Nole that day. Such was his level of play. I still don’t know how Roger managed to win a set in that match (or in last year’s AO SF for that matter) when Nole was completely outplaying him in almost every aspect of the game.
Sampras did it first.
Nick’s obvious weakness right now is ROS.
I give credit to Nadal for his good tournament here in Miami but he didn’t face players like Federer.
His draw was even easier by far than Fed’s draw. He didn’t beat players like Kyrgios or that Berdych who played a very good match against Fed.
More over Fed is another beast at the moment with his confidence so high. The only factor (according to me) in favor of Nadal is the fitness. Fed could be tired even if he had one day of rest. But in the other part, in a final you just give everything you have without thinking too much at your fitness. So i don’t think it will be a big factor.
For me the main keys of this match will be Nadal serve. If he is able to hit good serve and hold serve pretty easily he has a great shot to beat Fed again. If he is under pressure on every service game (like the previous time against Fed) he will lose.
My pick is Fed in 3 tight sets.
Well to tell the truth, even after being an ardent fan of Fed, I never imagined a day when Federer would be pipped as the overwhelming favourite against Nadal(that too in conditions which suit Nadal’s game the most)
But I guess, that is what sports is all about. Things change with time.
He’s not an overwhelming favourite lol.
Ask any gambler or check a betting site.
Everyone knows that having mps on your own serve or being up 5-X in a deciding tb on your own serve is considered as having the match on your racquet.
Umm
When exactly did Nick had MP on his serve? ?
Not what I said.
He was up 5-4 in last TB with two serves to come on his racquet. Fed needed a mini break to survive. Otherwise known in the moment as having the match on your racquet.
This really is basic stuff for any experienced tennis fan.
#Tennis101
“Everyone knows that having mps on your own serve”
Isn’t this what you said?
I didn’t question the tiebreaker thing!
abhirf cannot understand
#fedfawnbrain
Hey guys especially Nny and my dear Rafa fans…a good article to read before the final…
http://www.tennisworldusa.org/news/news/Rafael_Nadal/42058/carlos-moya-nadal-is-favourite-we-are-confident-on-him-/
okay atleast that means Rafa wont go to his BH all the time :-)..he will mix it up..
Yeah Sanju…I can’t wait to see whether there’s something new that Rafa and Carlos has working out in order to deal with Rog this time around…
I am waiting too though mentally all prepared for a Rafa loss 🙂
I think it will be too quick to expect any changes bearing immediate fruit however let us see what those changes are..
Sanju….Hahaha..yeah,me too always prepared mentally for a Rafa loss…I never expect too much from him…and also agree with u on the changes..i’m not expect much on that aspect as well..when Novak hired Boris,it took them 6 months or so to bear a fruit..and what a fruit that was!!…on Rafa..if he can go out on court full of confidence and self belief,it will be enough for me atm because if he feels confidence,everything will come alive for him especially his serve…
Read Rafa’s post SF press conference transcript; Rafa said win or loss, he’s happy to be in a HC final, and remains positive about his clay court season. I think that’s good to hear, I doubt he would lose confidence even if he loses in this final, for he knows clay is his forte, not HCs.
Mira, about that article, I’m with Moya, and that’s why I’ve picked Rafa to win in 2 or 3 sets. It all depends on how Rafa plays, whether he’s calm or nervous under pressure. If he’s nervous, chances are he will mess up like in IW.
I feel playing against Kohl has helped Rafa, at least he knows now he can’t return from the baseline but gives himself more time by stepping back (like he did in set two). However, I do hope he can step inside the court once he hits his returns, so that 1) he won’t need to run to cover a wider angle, 2) he may be able to hit deep to the corners when he hit from inside the court, that may force Fed to step back, giving Rafa time to move to the net to attack any weak response.
I hope Rafa plays with calm and freely, not be burdened by the ‘must win’ mentality.
“It all depends on how Rafa plays”
Lucky gets it.
On Rafa’s racquet.
Nothing new.
Lucky…once again I agree with all u said…in a match against Fog,i like his body language..very positive although I’m going to be honest,i don’t like his conservative play..attack opponent’s BH and just wait for his opponent make an error without the intent to make his own winner..i just wish he will play aggressively..it’s okay to send his FH to BH multiple times but when his opponent start to feel comfortable in the rally he should ‘kill it’ as soon as possible..but u and I know,it’s not happen that way..Hope we will see something different today..he had to…Rog certainly will come out with gun blazing that’s for sure…
MA,
Thanks for that link. I would expect Moya to express confidence in Rafa’s ability to find solutions. He’s done it in the past in his career. I remember when done said that Rafa would never, absolutely never beat Novak again after losing to him again at the 2012 AO. But I knew better. Even though Rafa lost again, I knew this was different. Rafa was competitive and fought back to level the match at 4 sets all. He was up a break and two games from winning the match when he missed an easy backhand and was broken. So Rafa found answers. I knew the next time they played Rafa would beat him. He did during the clay season and got the better of Novak for the next two years in slams.
It’s dangerous to ever write off a great player or think things will not change. The fact that Rafa played Fed so tough at the AO after two years of not being able to go deep in slams, says something. Even given the fast court conditions plus the fact that Rafa had one day’s rest and also that Fed made adjustments with his backhand, Rafa was still in that match to the end.
I think after Rafa’s poor performance at IW, is when perceptions changed. Rafa may not beat Fed here, but beat him again he will!
Nny!..You’re most welcome Nny!..and yeah,agree with everything u said…even if rafa lost today,that’s okay…he will next time…it will take time but as long as Rafa still have the desire to fight then the chances is still there..
Poor Rafa, always has to find solutions – first Fed, then Djoko, and now Fed again and thereafter maybe Djoko again when Djoko comes back to play – never ending process until Rafa retires. And, add to that his own injuries to overcome, his is certainly not a smooth going career, full of ups and downs.
I really enjoy those times when Rafa was in his heydays, playing on clay and almost unbeatable, beating his opponents in straight sets and handing out some bagels and breadsticks. At those times, I would relax and enjoy his clay court matches knowing that he would win in the end. Those were the days!
Some poster’s mention amy up there…and suddenly I miss u so so so much amy….I wish we can chat but I also knew that is impossible…I wish you’re healthy and happy wherever u are….Please know that you’re always in my thought amy…
This match is on Rafa’s racquet.
It’s not indoors.
Nothing new. Vamos!!!