Miami final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

Arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history is picking up steam in a major way. And it is doing so 13 years after it first began–at this same Miami Open.

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be facing each other for the 37th time in their careers and for the third time already this season when they battle for the Miami title on Sunday afternoon. Federer and Nadal went 15 months without a single meeting before colliding at both the Australian Open and the Indian Wells Masters earlier this year. The Swiss survived a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 thriller to triumph Down Under before destroying Nadal 6-2, 6-3 in an all-too-early fourth-round showdown in the California desert.

Nadal still leads the overall head-to-head series 23-13, but it is now tied up 9-9 on hard courts. The two all-time greats have squared off three times in Miami, where each of their first two encounters took place. Nadal cruised 6-3, 6-3 back in 2004, Federer prevailed 2-6, 6-7(4), 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-1 in the 2005 final, and Nadal got the job done 6-3, 6-2 in 2011.

This one almost did not come to fruition. Federer has been the dominant player of 2017 with an 18-1 record and titles in Melbourne and Indian Wells, but it was far from one-way traffic for him in the quarterfinals and semis. After saving two match points to outlast Tomas Berdych 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(6), the 35-year-old returned one day later and battled past Nick Kyrgios 7-6(9), 6-7(9), 7-6(5) in three hours and 10 minutes. Federer preceded those results with more routine defeats of Frances Tiafoe, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Roberto Bautista Agut.

“He’s playing so good,” Nadal commented. “That’s all, no? He’s playing great. When (a) top player like him is playing that well, then it’s always a big challenge for every player. That’s all.”

Nadal endured only one real scare on the way to his fifth Miami final. The sixth-ranked Spaniard got bageled in the first set of his third-round date with Philipp Kohlschreiber, but he recovered to win 0-6, 6-2, 6-3. Nadal also boasts straight-set victories over Dudi Sela, Nicolas Mahut, Jack Sock, and Fabio Fognini.

The 14-time major champion is still in search of his first Miami title, currently saddle with an 0-4 record in finals. This one should be more competitive than what transpired in Indian Wells, but Federer is battle-hardened thanks to Berdych and Kyrgios and a full day off will restored whatever energy was sapped in those thrillers. Given the way he is hitting his backhand, which had been his waterloo against Nadal in the past, Federer should make it three in a row at his rival’s expense.

Pick: Federer in 2

[polldaddy poll=9713040]

153 Comments on Miami final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nadal

  1. rafa in twoi’m looking past his two losses to fed as records don’t matter when it comes to these two. aussie open could’ve easily been nadal 6-2 final set… of course the 2 – 0 in the indian wells would’ve hurt, but no way fed goes 3 – 0 on the season on another goat. fed has had a tougher path to the finals and nadal will have been anticipating this clash

  2. Can the “objective” Rafa fans here just enjoy Rafa playing without claiming his current struggles are “mental”? His mental strength is legendary. It is his body which is his weak point. The armchair pundits here seem to be unaware that Rafa has or ever had any physical struggles. He is an inspiration to all athletes who have to fight through injuries and physical pain. Marion Bartoli couldn’t take it anymore. Del Potro plays through great pain too. He isn’t what he was but no one keeps saying it is because of his anxiety.
    Rafa is obviously not in the physical form he was in during his peak years.His speed, especially his lateral movement, is impaired. Yet here he is once again in a final. No matter how he fares today, he is and always will be my GOAT.

    • Mine too in my heart. Just not in my head at the moment.

      He is very much still physically more than capable of beating this Fed IMO.

    • Well said Mary. Rafa is physically not the same as the Rafa of old. He’s in another HC final which really says something about him despite not being at his best.

      Sock and Foggy couldn’t break Rafa’s serve, I think that’s encouraging. His serve is his main weakness imo, he barely can serve a 120mph serve these days but has to rely on good varieties and placements to make it tough for his opponents to break his serve.

      Rafa should just mix it up a little bit when facing Fed, don’t just serve to Fed’s BH all the time!

    • Absolutely right, Mary. I am not a huge Rafa fan but I have always admired his competitive spirit and I think he comes to play every match to the very best of his ability. Physically he is not what he was, for the reasons you say (decline in lateral movement above all) but he is in another final, testament to his championship talent and competitive fire. I don’t think he will win it, but he might; that’s why they play the game.

  3. RT @TheBorisBecker: I hope my man @DjokerNole is watching this …it’s time for you to clean your shoes and fix your racket and get back to business…

  4. Rafa looks determined. Good serve placement. Miami crowd lost all my respect. Pathetic.
    But they will have to be more respectful to Rafa just as the AO crowd was.
    Regardless, Fed will win this.
    But Rafa will crush him on clay. And the rest of the field.

    • I just hope Rafa can win this Miami title and then forget about going to Miami from next year onwards; just concentrate his efforts on clay. He’s getting older so he needs all the energy come the clay season.

  5. I am not at all confident about Rafa winning today. But I know he is going to do his best.
    Fed has always been formidable. It is just that Rafa used to be better. He could run down every ball and could depend on his lethal forehand to crush the mighty Fed. Alas that speed is gone and that forehand is a shadow of itself.

    • @mary, 12:56 PM,

      I will have to agree on that. His speed and his footwork have clearly detorioated, thus he does no longer dominate the opponents he used to send to bushes. However, Fed almost lost to Berdy who has clearly been in the slump lately. So why do people think Fed is unbeatable and that Rafa can’t survive this Fed is beyond me! Of course if Rafa showes up playing badly he will lose and would lose to much lesser opponents like he did to Query.
      But why this impressiion that Miami 2017 Rafa can’t deal with this Fed who was almost sent packing by two of his opponents?

      • Exactly Nats! Fed almost lost to Berdych and had a narrow escape against Kyrgios and people still think Fed is so formidable and Rafa having no chances but to lose in straight sets. There’s just so little respect for Rafa, even from some of his fans. Rafa will fight hard, win or loss, for he knows he won’t have that many chances anymore winning the Miami title.

        • I am not one who has bought into the Fed invincibility nonsense. I thought he should have lost to Berdy and Nik. So I am not on the Fed bandwagon. I do not disrespect Rafa’s chances at all in the final. He has found solutions when his rivals got the better of him in the past and can do so again.

          I know that Rafa will give it his all. He would love to win this elusive title. As long as Rafa plays his best and gives it his all, that is all I can ask as his fan.

          • Exactly NNY, I too don’t but into this Fed invincibility nonsense as I saw his vulnerability in both the Berdych and Kyrgios matches.

        • Those that say Rafa cannot be as good as he was anymore and cannot hit his FH like he used to are the ones that disrespect Rafa.

          • I am using invincibility because that is how some are perceiving Fed. Just read some of the predictions and comments from the Fed fans.

            No straw man argument here. Do. It misconstrue what I am saying. When you read Fed fans saying he will be undefeated and win this, that and the other, that is what I am addressing. Those are the ones who have bought into the invincibility and unbeatable business.

          • No wrong, hawks. He has lost speed so he cannot move sideways to his left fast enough. That impacts his forehand. Also his footwork is messed up. Maybe he scrambles to the side and hurriedly takes the shot without time for proper footwork? vr or lucky can probably tell us more about this.

          • My point is that his loss in speed is mostly recoverable to a point that the rest of his game with modest evolution can be recovered to its full effect.

      • Show me who said “unbeatable” besides the squawking strawman ?.

        No one else here nor in the federazzi fawning so called failing federazzi have said so.

        On the contrary, I for one said in the end both Kyrgios and Berdych had their respective racquets until their belief collapsed at the very end.

        Like Rafa’s did in Australia.

        Rafa was physically capable in Australia and is very close.

        He needs to close the gap.

        It is possible tomorrow. Just not probable at the moment.

        Unbeatable lol. Too funny.

        • Will Rafa come out with a new game plan tomorrow? Fed too has lost speed so Rafa can exploit it.
          I think the extra weapon which Fed had at AO was that he did not have expectations of winning anything so soon after his return. So he played with carefree abandon. At IW, he was helped by Rafa. Our man wanted too much to win and so played safe and lost.
          Win or lose, hope Rafa plays tomorrow like his 17 year old self at Miami with nothing to lose.

          • Agreed 99% except for Feds speed.

            He chased down a very good Kyrgios drop shot for a CC winner as fast as ever.

            The question is how at almost 36.

        • Hawkeye,

          You are coming a bit too close to being disrespectful to what I am saying. Don’t go there. You know perfectly well what I am referencing. Some Fed fans have indicated that Fed could remain undefeated. Or did you forget that little discussion with a Fed fan? They are waxing poetic about Wimbledon and being undefeated on hard courts.

          Stop with the straw man accusations.

          • So you want to tell me how to post now when you’ve called out others for trying to do the same to you.

            In your own words, I’ll continue to speak my mind within the site rules.

            There are definite lazy straw man statements here from both sides and I will point them out where I see fit.

  6. Fed in 2. At this level its mind game. At present Fed believes he can not lose.
    In 2015 Djoko believed he cannot lose. Fed was playing better than all during 2015 Wimbeldon & US open until he reached final against Djoko. Fed was looking unbeatable against Murray in Wibeldon 2015 Semifinal and Stan in US open 2015. But Fed was not believing he can beat Djoko in final.
    Fed 2.0 believes he will beat Nadal hence he will win Miami Final on Sunday.

      • At almost 36, he has the reaction time, stamina and speed of any player in his 20s which gives him that confidence.

        How is that possible at almost 36 is the question that no one wants to consider.

        • We have not seen anybody dominating like him at 35+. Agassi & Connors had longevity. But they were not dominating like Fedo. During Ao 17 Fedo build confidence and now he is having never give up mind set. He thinks he can not lose. His winning streak will be halted at some stage. But it will not happen in Miami final. Fedo will be prepared for dominating final.

          • There are more 30+ players competing at highest level than before. Reason could be matches reduced to 3 sets other than Grand slam.
            Fedo’s style of play is the reason for lessor toll on his body. Players like Nadal, Djoko and Murray will not have longevity like Fedo because of their style of play. Fedo can easily continue for next 2 to 3 years unless gets serious injury.

          • Sure Anant, nine less matches per year are B03 instead of B05 since 2005.

            Massive difference LOL.

            You evade the point.

            Federer is as good and arguably better than he’s ever been at 35+ with no significant loss in speed, reaction and endurance. Witness two long b2b three set matches with four tiebreaks in less than 36 hours with no signs of tiring.

            And yes strangely many players suddenly playing career best tennis north of 30.

            Curious.

          • Anant, you have hit the nail on the head! A daniel come to Judgment! Fed’s style of play does not cause injuries. Rafa’s style does. So when Rafa takes an injury break, it is really an injury break. Your less enlightened brethren actually wanted us to believe Rafa is never injured!
            Why did Fed take a 6 month break? Was it a silent ban?

          • @Mary..Have you seen Fed’s game in Clay & Grass season of 2016 after returning from injury? He was badly struggling with movement. His fitness level caused him match against Raonic in Wimby 2016. That made him taking harsh decision of 6 months rest. It allowed him to recover completely mentally & physically.
            Difference of win and loss is very less.
            You need little luck also to win tournament which he is getting in 2017.
            Now Fed is having high confidence of doing well in tournaments.
            There is no limit for raising Doubts. You need evidence. Do you think other players will keep quiet if ATP is biased about Fed?

            @Hawkeye,
            Fed’s style of play, his level of fitness and his injury free career(except minor injuries in 2013 and 2016) are the only reason for his longevity. After switching to new Wilson racquet from 2014 he is grown in confidence. He was little unlucky not to win Wimbeldon 2014 & 2015. However he could able to regain no. 2 rankings(Remember he missed number 1 by whisker). Fed himself confessed large head new racquet gives him easy power on Serve, ROS and backhand.
            Credit should be given to Fed for showing flexibility to adapt technology changes.

  7. Kyrgios had no choice but to play the bad guy. Heck, if Mother Theresa were alive today, she might get booed if she went out to hit a few with Federer.

    Is this not the height of how ludicrous a tennis writer can get? Mother Theresa seriously who is anointed a saint now and devoted all her life to serve people will get booed if she hit with Federer? The extent and silliness of this Fed worshipping gets on my nerves..

    Some other article said has anyone seen such an astonishing comeback..Ofcourse a much bigger one than this..Rafa in 2013 who went on a tear winning 10 titles and 15 finals after 6 months off in 2012.

    • Sanju, but Rafa was 27 when he did it in 2013; this Fed is 35! If Fed goes on to win some more titles similar to Rafa did in 2013, then the question is: what has or had Fed done to improve during his six months away. The same people who questioned Rafa’s comeback in 2013 should now question Fed’s 2017 comeback.

      • But they would never Lucky because of their confirmatory bias.

        He just played two consecutive three setters with multiple TBs in 36 hours and I fail to see the tiredness being claimed.

      • Luckystar APRIL 1, 2017 AT 3:05 PM says: “The same people who questioned Rafa’s comeback in 2013 should now question Fed’s 2017 comeback.”
        .
        In April 2016, Rafa filed his defamation lawsuit against one of these people – former French sports minister (between 2007 and 2010) Roselyne Bachelot, who said on French TV: “We know that Nadal’s famous seven-month injury [in 2012] was because he tested positive. If a player takes a significant time out from the sport, it’s because he tested positive and the whole thing was covered up.”
        The case will be heard before a Paris court on July 7, 2017.
        http://www.lequipe.fr/Tennis/Actualites/Roselyne-bachelot-sera-jugee-le-7-juillet-2017/700376

    • Also Sanju, I read some of Delpo’s comments about Rafa’s comeback in 2013, he expressing disbelief too ( for that I really dislike Delpo from then on). Perhaps Delpo at that time was comparing his own comeback to Rafa’s when his wasn’t that successful in comparison. I wonder what Delpo thinks about Fed’s comeback this time.

      Critics are harsh on Rafa as always; when Rafa beat Fed at AO2009 after his unbelievable five plus hours SF, some questioned that and instigating that Rafa was doping. However, Djoko had done a similar feat at AO2012. Rafa had his incredible 2013 comeback and now Fed at 35 has his in 2017. I think if Rafa is doping then both Djoko and Fed are also doping, maybe the big four all dope to get to where they are now?

          • You do not get to be near the top in the world at tennis without being ultra competitive. That is sufficient motivation to dope, but the top players are also playing for sums that are, for most of us, unimaginably huge. No one should ever be surprised when a player is found guilty of doping. By the same token, I think it crosses the line into irresponsibility (and possibly worse) to insinuate that any player is doping without hard evidence. Some posters here seem to be coming close to that line.

      • I like it that whatever they questioned Rafa of doing, others (Djoko and Fed) are doing that too. What goes around comes around; they have to keep their mouth shut, now that their beloved Fed is also doing some unbelievable stuff.

  8. Fed snatched the racquet out of Rafas hands in AO and caught Rafa by surprise by just going all out aggressive in final set. Rafa was just not prepared as he had never seen this side of Federer in a slam since 10 years against him.

    What surprises me is IW where Rafa knew what to expect and did nothing at all.

  9. @hawks,

    Well, if you say Rafa is to lose in straights that corresponds with unbeatable at this tourney, doesn’t it? Or you will contradict yourself again, and interpret it differently! I am not a mind reader so I do not know what you actually meant. Pardon me!

    Anyway, doesn’t really matter! Everybody is entitled to their own opinion! We can’t all be right!

    I respect Rafa’s efforts! I know he is not Rafa of 2013 and will never be, but I know if he was not tired he would have beaten this “formidable” Fed in that AO final and then you would have been singing a different song!

    Vamos Rafa! Give your best! We love you! ❤

    • It’s my best prediction.

      Nowhere did I say it is the only possible outcome or that he can’t win.

      If you bothered to read and actually CONSIDER my follow up posts instead of the ones that fit strawman confirmatory bias, you and others here might realize that.

      Only strawman deal in absolutes by definition.

      Hope this helps.

      • I don’t need to deal in strawman arguments.

        They are the cheap tool displaying lazy desperation and only work against the inexperienced debater.

    • Natasha o-
      How in the world does someone picking a player to win a tournament in any way suggest that that person thinks the player is “unbeatable”? It means that they think that player will win the tournament… Doesn’t every player who wins a tournament go unbeaten at that tournament? How is that remotely the same as unbeatable? Unbeatable means no can beat them. But no one has ever been undefeated. Plus, he lost in Dubai like a month ago! I still don’t understand where this idea that anyone on the Grandstand ever said he is “unbeatable” came from… I saw people saying that he was playing extremely well, and maybe would be “tough to beat”. But unbeatable?? Like, not capable of losing?? Oh please…. The only people dumb enough to actually think things like that are the Big 3-Fanatic Trolls on Twitter and YouTube. Even if 1 person said it on here, that’s just one moronic opinion out of hundreds on here. But this idea that “people are saying that Fed is unbeatable!” I don’t understand it.

      So my question to you, Natashao, is this- If someone says a player is “unbeatable”, why would it matter? Shouldn’t that person immediately be disqualified from being taken seriously after making such a moronic comment? People said after the US Open in 2010 that Rafa would never lose another major- those people were idiots. People said similar things about Nole in 2011 and 2015. They were not worth listening to. People said things about Fed all the time in his dominant prime. Those people were brainless.

    • I can tell by your tired fedfawn hedging excuses that I don’t need to click on your link to realize that it’s also just more tired federazzi fedfawning propaganda lol.

        • But you and I know who’s who. I once clicked on your avatar and saw my old virtual friend’s name.

          Could have been a typo.

          #DoingTheVirtualWinkings

          • No you did not. you suspected somebody was me and clicked on that poster’s avatar and saw your friend’s name. amy did it bcause she is used to clicking on a poster’s name rather than the post as is done on tennis-x where she is an active poster under a different moniker.

          • No she told me what to click on which proved to me that you weren’t RITB once I checked it out for myself.

          • amy told you to click on another poster’s name, It is a stretch. You suspect x to be mary. amy, who is used to being Margot on tennis-x, clicks on the poster’s name instead of the post. She finds your friend’s name and tells you to click too. So x who is supposed to be mary turns out to be your friend. You and amy conclude mary is your friend. But wait, you did not prove x is mary? Mind you, I have no problem with being RITB or holdserve. Both are Rafa fans and people change their monikers all the time. You have been conspirator, Elina (?)… what not. So why should you call me holdserve? But amy’s caseis different. Margot can change her name to amy or whatever. it is immaterial. What was pertinent in the troll amy case was not that Margot called herself amy but that she falsely claimed to be a Rafa fan and bashed Rafa.

        • amy not only bashed Rafa,she attacked me viciously repeatedly but none of you seemed shocked by her ugly posts. All I did was object to her Rafa bashing and expose her as a fake Rafa fan. So I am evil and amy is good??? Really???
          Anyway, I am dropping this topic. If you think the fake Rafa fan’s viciousness prove she is sweet and good, that’s your problem.

          • Nothing to do with amy or deuce.

            You brought it on yourself and viciousness is a two-way street. But you were the instigator. Also with no proof to base your claims on.

          • The preponderance of probability that amy is deuce is so high that it is as good as certain. 99.999999%. Obviously we cannot prove it 100% unless amy herself admits it. IP address won’t be the same.
            Want me to list out the clues?
            Margot came here posing as a Rafa fan and proceeded to bash Rafa and attack loyal Rafa fans. How does that make me an instigator?

          • Their personalities, and writing styles are completely different.

            deucy doesn’t offend easily and laughs it off. She couldn’t care less. She doesn’t give it any weight. She was tires of this site being so one sided so she moved on.

            amy takes it more personally and takes insults head on but she also moved on.

            But they are completeley different personalities.

            As opposed to you and I who don’t change regardless of our moniker.

            On a completely different and unrelated topic, you know much about probability Mary? Such as the probability of Nole being randomly draw into feds half in 13 consecutive non-clay slams?

            See what I did just there? LOL.

          • you are making me, the victim, responsible for the vicious attacks on me? Wow this sounds like alternative facts

          • AT 10:54 PM says: ¤¤ deucy doesn’t offend easily and laughs it off.
            amy takes it more personally and takes insults head on but she also moved on.¤¤
            .
            I have read in amy’s comments on the Grandstand that deucy wrote email to the owner of the GS to complain about Mary, and amy herself is busy with political battles.

  10. The main difference with Nadal and Berdych/Kyrgios is the serve.

    Don’t expect tiebreakers in final.

    It will be simply a straight set victory for fed.

  11. It seems Fed liked all the shouting of the crowd in his match against Kyrgios. I wonder how he will like it if the crowd tomorrow supports Rafa? I remember he said shut up or something similar to Nole’s parents when they were cheering for their son.
    Anyway, tomorrow it will be GOAT vs GOAT so the crowd is going to be divided.

    • As I posted earlier Mary…

      Shocker. What a trooper…

      RT @SI_Tennis: A little bit of crowd noise during a tennis match? That doesn’t bother Roger Federer https://t.co/VbgNpJL73L https://t.co/YTC5gIZE7e

      The crowd will undoubtedly be over 50% pro-Fed as in 99% of his matches regardless of the opponent (Olympics, Spain and Serbia events the lone exceptions).

    • Mary APRIL 1, 2017 AT 4:07 PM,
      At the 2012 FO, Fed screamed “Shut up!” after he hit the ball into the net and the spectators were cheering for his opponent (Delpo).

      • Another made up story by the fiction expert who claims to know the nationailty of the fans that cheer for Federer and Isner at the French and the fans that booed Rafa in Australia.

        Hilarious!

        • It was Mr. S.Tiggy, who created (in 2014) a fake story that Fed yelled “Shut up!” to the crowd at the 2012FO BECAUSE he was distracted by their cheering for HIM (“by their oohs and aahs”). LOL LOL LOL
          The same Mr. Tiggys’s article has been published 3 years (!) in a row during (!) the French Open , obviously trying thoroughly to brainwash readers. LOL LOL LOL

          • so why are you responding to Hawkeye’s post by mentioning a fake story created by Tignor. Is he or anyone else here Tignor’s secretary or what? lol :s

          • LOL VR, she claims stories are false and makes up her own fake news to fit her confirmatory bias with zero information to back her up.

            #AlternateFactsAreEverywhere

  12. Rafa’s serve against Feds ROS and Rafas FHCC against Feds backhand.

    This was and will be the tactic. But the difference is Feds ROS and BH has vastly improved and Rafas otherwise immaculate defence is a thing of past now.

    • The question that remains to be answered is though Joy, how is that possible at almost 36 he is simply playing better than he ever has before?

      (Still think 2008-2013 Rafa and 2011-2016.5 Nole would beat him though as moot and subjective as that may be.)

      For that matter, Berdych, Kyrgios in Miami and Rafa in AO this year had those matches on their racquets until their belief faltered at the last moments.

      • I don’t think it was belief in the first place! Nick faltered because he let the crowd get to him. He was obviously annoyed and we all know his temper. Berdy, well, we have seen it so many times before, nothing new! He is known for being weak mentally, that’s mainly why he fails to win GS! And as for Rafa at the AO he was too tited both physically and emotionally, so that he was just not able to counterattack an aggressive Fed. That’s my view…

  13. amy forgot and sent a message to nny on tennis-x! ah the perils of old age!
    hawks, you really want me to rake up all the muck?

    • No. I don’t see why it matters who was who. I didn’t think referring to you as hs would matter. You are Mary now.

      I was conspirator and milostard on TT, and many other multiple names on TX (have to keep changing them as Sean bans me so keeping my latest moniker there to myself even though its not much of a secret lol).

      As I said, I’m happy you are posting here Mary.

    • How did I get into this discussion! Nobody has sent me a message on TX because I haven’t posted there in years!

      I don’t like seeing this nonsense starting up
      again! Leave me out of it, but do not start spreading lies about me getting messages on another site!

      Prove it!

  14. On a side note…

    No matter what the outcome of this final is, Rafa has such a great opportunity this clay season. If Murray really doesn’t even return to match play until Madrid, it could very well take him a while to get back into form. Who know’s what the deal is with Djokovic… If his injury concerns are serious, he could continue to slump through clay. He could also prove everyone wrong and suddenly start kicking ass again. Either way, even if Djokovic didn’t have injury concerns, I see no reason why Rafa can’t turn the their rivalry in his favor again this year, especially on clay. Sure, Rafa might not be at top form right now, but he is surely playing well enough where he can turn it up in the clay season! Assuming he continues to play better, I don’t why Rafa can’t handle Thiem and the other good clay court players just fine. I’m also not convinced that Fed would be able to impose his game on Rafa on a clay court, not to mention that Fed might only play a couple clay tournament. I think the biggest question is where Djokovic will be at, and I personally think that this could be the year that Rafa gains back control of that rivalry, on clay anyway. So even if Rafa loses the final today, I think he will be a serious contender for all the big clay titles… I think Rafa fans should be psyched about it, especially if he wins Miami. That will give him boatloads of confidence!

    • On traditionally slow clay, yes.

      However I think Fed has a really good shot at the French Open for his second career slam this year which would also keep the calendar slam in play to one up Djokovic.

  15. Until Rafa actually beats Fed on clay this year, we have to assume Fed has the best chance of winning RG especially as the clay maybe like the blue clay of Madrid? What a wonderful thing it would be if the RG guys could help the GOAT achieve a double career slam and maybe the calendar slam too to put his GOAT status beyond doubt?

      • In fact, the RG people have an underground bunker/clay lab deep under the mountains of Switzerland where the top scientists in the world have been working with Roger to design a clay court that peRFectly works in tandem with his game style to make sure he wins RG again! They’re making sure each layer and ingredient of the court ensures the ball bounces extra low and shoots through the court like a bullet. They’re even working together with Nike to make sure that the outsole of Roger’s shoes, and ONLY Roger’s shoes, specifically allows him to move and feel the court as if it were Basel! And just be safe, they’ve even designed exact clones of Rafa, Novak, Stan, Jo Willy, and EVEN ERNIE GULBIS, for Roger to practice against to ensure that he just won’t lose at RG this year! Similar to the AO, I don’t understand why the hell they decided to wait until 2017 to do this, but your guesses are as good as mine… 🙂

        #WatchOutErnie!!

        • And they are designing special balls that have sensors installed in them which prevent the ball from bouncing higher than shoulder level 😛

          Lol. Nothing is going to happen to RG. The player who plays best will win it like always.

          • And those sensors also trigger the release of a special substance, not visible to the naked eye, whenever any non-Federer player hits the ball, which makes said player drowsy and weak! 🙂

          • Sure. Believe what you want.

            AO17 was fastest slam hardcourt in at least 10 years by a significant margin, faster than recent Wimbledon grass.

            Madrid blue clay played faster than Madrid’s already fast high altitude conditions.

            It’s ok.

            Everybody laughed when I picked Fed to win AO this year.

            All the better to have the last laugh. 🙂

          • Not a conspiracy. Just business and marketing 101.

            Besides, can’t have Nole’s grand slam over his head which didn’t happen until 2016.

        • A good guess would be that they did not have the technology earlier!
          Also if they can have clones of Rafa etc, they can have clones of Fed too and also any number of them.. So maybe the Fed we see now is a clone? that explains why Fed is never tired. A tired clone can be replaced with a fresh one. ooh multiple calendar slams coming up!!!

  16. Kyrgios-Fed was a crazy match. The crowd was really bad and NK was annoyed to hell. NK could not find serve well enough and served a DF in the last few points. I must also say that Fed also read Nick’s first serves better in those moments and the forehand volley he hit at 3-4 down in the TB was insane. It really looked like the ball rebounded from a brick wall.

    We have seen what confident can do for a player. Fed has been winning these close matches and he must be feeling exceedingly confident. If this match were today, I would have said Rafa would surely win but now that there is a break, it’s not that simple.

    Fed’s physical tiredness won’t be a factor tomorrow. I am not sure about the emotional state as only he would know.

    • Seeing how incredibly close their AO match was, and how the conditions in Miami are different than in IW, I see no reason why this match couldn’t go either way. Fed could come out firing and make it difficult for Rafa to impose his game, like in IW. Or Rafa could come out firing and not let Fed get into any rhythm… These guys have just had too many close hardcourt matches at various times for me to ever just assume it will be one-sided for either of them. That’s just me, though.

    • I picked Fed in 3 only because of the confidence factor. Now, going into this final Fed will be ultra confident. Rafa has been good but not great to be honest. His second serve against Fog was very up and down and there were way too many central/passive backhands which would obviously lead to a straight set loss in the final. Rafa hit some good serves but I would still like to see him go more for the lines and get some angle on his second serves in the ad court.

      The biggest problem is Fed stepping in to attack rafa’s vulnerable serves. Fed used to attack some in the past but often he used to run around his backhand to hit big forehand returns but now he does not have to do that as he can attack with his backhand return more. He was chipping/slicing a lot more in the past.I hope after IW team Rafa has realised that they need to shake things up a bit.

      My concerns:

      (i) Don’t overdo the body serves. Rafa is now capable of hitting all four corners of the ad and deuce courts so no doesn’t have to be uncertain and go for safe serves. Body serves will only be good if he keeps them unpredictable. And, if you are to go for them, either hit with more pace or get loads of action on them!

      (ii) GET DEPTH on your CC forehand. If you want to get them high to fed’s backhand (which I know he will often try to do), make sure they are struck well and have some angle on them, rather than just have them land in the middle of the service box.

      (iii) Be really aggressive with your backhand counterpunching and as a first strike shot. Hit flat and hard or deep+heavy and not let Fed have all the time in the world by giving so much air to your backhands. I felt Fed had so much pace on his running forehand CC that day and Rafa was just unable to do anything in return!

      (iv) Fed will target your ROS vulnerabilities so don’t be afraid to take some risks. Moya said Rafa should have gone for more on returns in IW so I am hoping they will try this time. CHOOSE RETURN POSITIONING WISELY! Don’t stubbornly stay on the baseline just because it is supposed to be the aggressive option. Would rather stand back and make good contact !

      (v) beware of Fed’s forehand DTL. He’ll spread the court by using angles and then unleash it. Rafa is not fast enough to keep tracking most of them so he needs to be really alert.

      • VR great analysis but you are describing a game that Rafa has not been able to play consistently over the course of a match vs Fedole in a long time.

        His progress is in the right direction but is very slow and Federer has been outpacing him.

        • You are right Hawkeye. The AO final gives me hope though. In the sets which Rafa won and for some phases in even the sets the lost, he played great tennis and was able to overcome a lot of the concerns I have mentioned.

          I think Rafa thought the AO final was a one-off and Fed played an inspired final and won’t be able to sustain that level on the slower/higher bouncing IW courts. He was in for a shocker. I think that match would certainly serve as a wake up call and Rafa will not make the mistake of being passive.

          Also, this time Rafa has won 5 matches to reach the final whereas IW it was really early doors.

          I am expecting a much better performance and fight (he was not at all fighting that well in IW) from Rafa. If Fed plays crazy like in IW, I think he will win but his level drops a bit (esp his serve) and rafa puts more pressure, it could go Rafa’s way.

          But, I do agree with you that a Fed victory is more probable. I am really hoping Rafa can get a title here and head into the clay season like a tsunami.

          • Rafa’s wins have not been against high ranked players in Miami,

            He’s been mediocre by his standards.

          • I know. I only made the point as we know Rafa likes to play himself into form. Imagine Rafa facing fed instead of Kohls in the third round! He is over his worst patch here this tournament and is now in a position to improve.

          • which is why I don’t see him as the favourite. But, something is better than nothing, no? He has improved little by little and I am hoping he can play some inspired tennis in the final.

          • Well, that bagel set Rafa had gotten from Kohl was a wake up call. Note that thereafter, Rafa was way more aggressive when he came out to play – vs Mahut, Sock and Foggy. I think deep down Rafa knows he can’t afford to be tentative, esp in the final against Fed.

            I think Rafa should be well ready for the battle on Sunday, for he knows there are not many chances left for him to win the Miami title, and he won’t want to lose to Fed again, esp in B2B events, certainly doesn’t want a repeat of 2011 here.

          • Also, playing against three SHBH players gave Rafa the idea on how to handle the aggressive one, the net rushing one and the normal rallying one of the SHBHs. It’s quite interesting seeing Rafa adjusting his court positions during the Kohl match.

            Imo, what Rafa should do is to return from further back but thereafter moves forward for the next shot. Also, tries something different, lobbing instead of the usual passing shots. Fed will serve and return aggressively and then rushes forward, so Rafa has to hit it deep enough and if possible lob Fed when Fed is at the net.

            I’m sure Rafa and his team would come out with some game plans, we’re just some armchair advisors; I trust that they have learned from the past two mistakes; it’s up to Rafa how he executes the game plan, how he ‘psych’ himself to remain calm and fight for every point and not let the pressure of winning the title burdened him.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.