Madrid SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

It will be a rematch of the 2015 Madrid final when Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal square off during semifinal action on Saturday. They winner will go up against either Novak Djokovic or Kei Nishikori for the title.

Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray will be facing each other for the 24th time in their careers when they clash in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 17-6, including 8-1 on clay. Murray’s lone victory on the red stuff, however, came last spring in the title match of this same Madrid event (the Scot triumphed 6-3, 6-2). Still, Nadal has won four of their last five encounters after most recently prevailing 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the Monte-Carlo semis.

It is safe to say this is not the Nadal whom Murray defeated in last year’s final. The fifth-ranked Spaniard dug himself out of a prolonged slump by restoring order to his old stomping grounds in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. Nadal followed up his recent win over Murray by beating Gael Monfils for the Monte-Carlo title and he came back out the next week to steamroll through Barcelona without dropping a single set. So far in Madrid the 14-time major champion has fought past Andrey Kuznetsov, Sam Querrey, and Joao Sousa, donating one set to Sousa in the process.

Murray’s title defense got off to a bit of a rocky start when he surrendered a set to Radek Stepanek in round two, but the second seed promptly destroyed both Gilles Simon and Tomas Berdych. He is now 16-4 for the season and in confident form on clay after struggling in both Indian Wells and Miami.
Murray Monday
“Andy played the semifinals in Monte-Carlo, winning good matches, and was close to beating me,” Nadal reflected. “Last year he won [this title], so he knows how to play very well here. That’s a great level that he’s playing. He’s a player that can win against everybody.”

Murray certainly has the capability of picking up a win on Saturday, but life would be easier on him with a closed roof. Such was the unfortunate case for Nadal against Sousa, who bounced back from a first-set bagel to steal the second amidst indoor conditions after the roof was shut because of rain. Rain is not in the Madrid forecast again until Sunday. This should be another competitive Murray-Nadal contest, but the four-time champion is likely to raise his level with one of the toughest opponents on the other side of the net.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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46 Comments on Madrid SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

  1. Feel so bad for the crowd…they were really trying hard. Murray played like a world no.2 (esp on big points) and Rafa played like a …. don’t wanna use the word…

  2. Not for one second did I think Rafa would lose this match. What was he doing? He wasn’t firing on all cylinders, that’s for sure.

  3. Nothing like the Rafa of MC and Barcelona…this was more like Rafa of 2015…amazing…

    Forget about beating Djokovic.. he is still vulnerable to the field! Embarrasing loss I would say…

  4. is today that surprising?? this was just a reversion to the normal rafa of the last 15 months. there has been the odd signs of revival…wtf…mc and barcelona..but then like a firework he just fizzles out again.
    whole lotta denial going on….

  5. Rafa played like crap!

    I think the title is Djoko’s to lose now. I doubt Kei could beat Djoko and Murray as usual will find a way to lose to Djoko in the final. The story about Djoko and Murray is always such, sad( for Murray) but true.

  6. a whole lot’a denial is right, Amy

    Rafa, keep finding ways to deal better with the in between the ears. I won’t mention the a word.

    • yes indeed chloro. plays well indoors last year when no pressure. then feels pressure and screws up. same again. rinse and repeat.

  7. But at least Murray has wins over Rafa only on his least favorite clay surface 😀 Rafa played like crap definitely. But hope it is an exception rather than the norm. Rome and France clay are more in tune with the clay of MC and Barca

  8. When Rafa practice with other players he thinks they are just hitting with him in good faith but they have their own agenda.

  9. Rafa looked wasted even yesterday! He overplayed and must have been feeling tired. He will bounce back in Rome! I didn’t care about Madrid only wanted Rafa to defend his points. This loss means nothing as long as Rafa continues improving…

    Vamos Rafa!

  10. Rafa is fond of playing defensive tennis these days even when he clearly has weapons to play more offensive tennis!

    During his heydays on clay, even though his defensive skill was top notch, he would still hit offensive shots and was the best in turning defense into offence, well before the appearance of Djoko v2 in 2011.

    Playing defensive tennis is not going to win him many matches, esp all players would play aggressive, offensive tennis vs him. Even Simon and Ferrer, the two top class counterpunchers would play aggressive attacking tennis vs Rafa – Simon at Rome in 2014 and Ferrer at WTF last year for examples. Even Sousa turned so offensive playing against Rafa!

    Its simply tiring for Rafa having to grind so much to defend; its even more tiring for his fans watching him gets overpowered by some low ranked opponents so often, even on clay! He’s simply allowing his opponents to do whatever they want against him.

    He’s not going to win slam playing like this!!

    • lucky doesn’t get it.

      Rafa no longer consistently has the mental tools to play aggressively since almost three years ago.

  11. Seriously. I wanted to see rafole much more than Murray vs Novak. I had a bad feeling though. After Rafa was tested by Sousa and Murray crushed Berdych it seemed he was in better form heading in and plus he would’ve been #3 if Rafa had beaten him but of course Murray wins and has same amount of points as Roger and is #2 because of alphabetical order from his first name starting with an A. I hope Roger can be healthy for Rome next week. He may have kept the #2 spot after next week if Murray had lost today but Roger is defending points from making the final last year so he could’ve dropped right back for sure. Also I hope Murray can actually make the final a good one (if he plays Novak).

    • Murray won’t be playing a mental problema tomorrow and as such will lose in two mundane muzzole like sets.

      Hope this helps.

  12. Rafa please rest up and think of how to play more aggressive tennis come Rome.

    I hate this indecisive, defensive, error prone, poor smash, poor drop shots, poor BP conversion, poor consolidation of miserable break of serves, etc and etc Rafa. This Rafa, please go away!

  13. What fragile hope I was nursing of Rafa’s chances of winning the French after mc and Barcelona have been snuffed.

    Next to no chance now.

    Seriously coming to the sad realization that his mental problema will never be under sufficient control to win another slam ever.

    • agreed. criminal waste of talent. criminally poor management of the problem by toni.
      could have been dealt with early last year and rafa would have won more slams by now.

    • Although mental part does play a role I don’t think it’s that… Rafa was tired both physically and mentally beating some strong opponents in MC and Barcelona. His physical condition has tremendously improved compared to 2015 but this was a little too much and especially when Rafa could foresee playing Novak under the roof tomorrow. He could not focus today. I hope he will rest a bit and be ready to play at his improved (not yet perfect though) level in Rome!

      In Rafa we trust!
      Vamos!

      • Sorry nats if this was isolated I’d tend to agree. Yes he had improved but still no where near to where he needs to be to win slams without a lot of help now even further away from Feds chances to win his 18th.

        No match is NID anymore and that won’t win slams.

        Also boring to watch weak tennis.

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