Madrid SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

It will be a rematch of the 2015 Madrid final when Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal square off during semifinal action on Saturday. They winner will go up against either Novak Djokovic or Kei Nishikori for the title.

Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray will be facing each other for the 24th time in their careers when they clash in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 17-6, including 8-1 on clay. Murray’s lone victory on the red stuff, however, came last spring in the title match of this same Madrid event (the Scot triumphed 6-3, 6-2). Still, Nadal has won four of their last five encounters after most recently prevailing 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the Monte-Carlo semis.

It is safe to say this is not the Nadal whom Murray defeated in last year’s final. The fifth-ranked Spaniard dug himself out of a prolonged slump by restoring order to his old stomping grounds in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. Nadal followed up his recent win over Murray by beating Gael Monfils for the Monte-Carlo title and he came back out the next week to steamroll through Barcelona without dropping a single set. So far in Madrid the 14-time major champion has fought past Andrey Kuznetsov, Sam Querrey, and Joao Sousa, donating one set to Sousa in the process.

Murray’s title defense got off to a bit of a rocky start when he surrendered a set to Radek Stepanek in round two, but the second seed promptly destroyed both Gilles Simon and Tomas Berdych. He is now 16-4 for the season and in confident form on clay after struggling in both Indian Wells and Miami.
Murray Monday
“Andy played the semifinals in Monte-Carlo, winning good matches, and was close to beating me,” Nadal reflected. “Last year he won [this title], so he knows how to play very well here. That’s a great level that he’s playing. He’s a player that can win against everybody.”

Murray certainly has the capability of picking up a win on Saturday, but life would be easier on him with a closed roof. Such was the unfortunate case for Nadal against Sousa, who bounced back from a first-set bagel to steal the second amidst indoor conditions after the roof was shut because of rain. Rain is not in the Madrid forecast again until Sunday. This should be another competitive Murray-Nadal contest, but the four-time champion is likely to raise his level with one of the toughest opponents on the other side of the net.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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35 Comments on Madrid SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

  1. First break point for in set 2 Murray and he gets it … Rafa had a good look at a forehand pass and as expected, nets it 🙂

    Someone please give Rafa a shutup call if he says he is not feeling nervous on the court…

    • very well said vr!!
      also will someone please hit toni over the head…i hold him responsible for much of this..

  2. And adds fuel to the theory that he does not feel nervous only when Djoko is not around. Like how Fed plays freely when rafa was not around

  3. And the irony is that Rafa invited Murray to practise with him in Mallorca and he ends up defetaing him in Madrid :O

    • Yeah, not forgetting he practiced with Sousa too who gave him a nightmare yesterday! He’s letting them get used to his way of hitting the ball!

  4. Rafa is definitely losing this match because even if he can hold serve here, he’s not going to break Murray’s serve so Murray will win.

  5. The confidence gained from winning Monte carlo and Barcelona has gone out of the window. Welcome back 2015 rafa.

    However sorry to say I wanted this result. 2 reasons – not to face Djokovic and 2nd he has never won all 5 clay tourneys . A loss here was welcome going by history. In 2010 when he made clean sweep did not play Barcelona.

    • Are you kidding. He wins MC and Barcelona. Has beaten Murray the last two times they have played and you were “100 percent” sure he will not win this. Not to mention the gigantic h2h lead he has over Murray on clay

      • Forget history. With Rafa these days it’s about current state of mind and present.

        Murray played very well against Simon and berdych , much better than rafa was against querrey and souza

      • Yes vr not loling. Knew he would not win this. Did you not see his patchy level of play past 2 matches.he is not the player we saw in Barcelona. Where did that disappear suddenly.

  6. The crowd getting it done for Rafa…sooooo much support they gave him in that game and Muzz caved in! Lifeline for Nadal

    • incredible. rafa’s overheads normally the safest in the game.
      all mental. he was missing easy ones last year as well.

  7. Well the shots did not work, did not convert break points, did not save break points, could not get a drop shot over, could not hit a forehand or the backhand but at least he fought well.
    Now as nadline likes to say, i hope its not a case of Murray busting his gut against Rafa even in exhibition matches and then rolls over for Djoko 😀 😀

    • You are being too polite… What about the overhead misses?! It is not about missing the drop shot, it is about WHEN he missed the four of them and the the fact that he did not have faith in his forehand DTL! Forehand DTL was sitting in Mallorca for most part!

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