Madrid SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

It will be a rematch of the 2015 Madrid final when Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal square off during semifinal action on Saturday. They winner will go up against either Novak Djokovic or Kei Nishikori for the title.

Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray will be facing each other for the 24th time in their careers when they clash in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 17-6, including 8-1 on clay. Murray’s lone victory on the red stuff, however, came last spring in the title match of this same Madrid event (the Scot triumphed 6-3, 6-2). Still, Nadal has won four of their last five encounters after most recently prevailing 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the Monte-Carlo semis.

It is safe to say this is not the Nadal whom Murray defeated in last year’s final. The fifth-ranked Spaniard dug himself out of a prolonged slump by restoring order to his old stomping grounds in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. Nadal followed up his recent win over Murray by beating Gael Monfils for the Monte-Carlo title and he came back out the next week to steamroll through Barcelona without dropping a single set. So far in Madrid the 14-time major champion has fought past Andrey Kuznetsov, Sam Querrey, and Joao Sousa, donating one set to Sousa in the process.

Murray’s title defense got off to a bit of a rocky start when he surrendered a set to Radek Stepanek in round two, but the second seed promptly destroyed both Gilles Simon and Tomas Berdych. He is now 16-4 for the season and in confident form on clay after struggling in both Indian Wells and Miami.
Murray Monday
“Andy played the semifinals in Monte-Carlo, winning good matches, and was close to beating me,” Nadal reflected. “Last year he won [this title], so he knows how to play very well here. That’s a great level that he’s playing. He’s a player that can win against everybody.”

Murray certainly has the capability of picking up a win on Saturday, but life would be easier on him with a closed roof. Such was the unfortunate case for Nadal against Sousa, who bounced back from a first-set bagel to steal the second amidst indoor conditions after the roof was shut because of rain. Rain is not in the Madrid forecast again until Sunday. This should be another competitive Murray-Nadal contest, but the four-time champion is likely to raise his level with one of the toughest opponents on the other side of the net.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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