Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Raonic vs. Shapovalov

Rafael Nadal continue his bid for a sixth Madrid title when he goes up against Diego Schwartzman during third-round action on Thursday. Fellow Canadians Milos Raonic and Denis Shapovalov are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (13) Diego Schwartzman

Nadal and Schwartzman will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers when they meet again in round three of the Mutua Madrid Open on Thursday. All four of their previous encounters have gone the way of Nadal, who is 10-1 in total sets. Schwartzman has, however, been competitive at times; including a 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-5 loss at the 2015 U.S. Open and a 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3 setback at this year’s Australian Open.

Taking a set off the Spaniard–as Schwartzman did Down Under–is not something anyone has been able to accomplish in Nadal’s last 48 sets of clay-court tennis dating back to the 2017 French Open. The world No. 1’s current stretch of dominance includes a 10th title at Roland Garros, 11th triumphs in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, two Davis Cup wins, and a 6-3, 6-1 beatdown of Gael Monfils on Wednesday. Schwartzman’s clay-court campaign began with early losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Munich–where he compiled a combined 1-3 record. But the 16th-ranked Argentine is still in contention for a top 16 seed at the French Open and he has boosted his chances in that department with Madrid victories over Adrian Mannarino and Feliciano Lopez. Schwartzman is not in the kind of peak form necessary to give Nadal a real test–and neither is anyone else, except for perhaps a huge server who can occasionally take the racket out of Nadal’s hands.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Denis Shapovalov vs. Milos Raonic

It will be an all-Canadian affair when Raonic and Shapovalov go head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Thursday. Grass may the preferred surface of the one-time Wimbledon finalist, but he is also quite capable on clay. Raonic, who was one set away from the French Open quarterfinals last spring, is one round away from a third trip to the Madrid quarters following wins this week over Nicolas Kicker and No. 3 seed Grigor Dimitrov.

Shapovalov has already enjoyed a productive week, as well, with defeats of Tennys Sandgren (6-1, 6-4) and Benoit Paire (7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4). The 19-year-old is inexperienced on clay, but the two aforementioned performances were encouraging and with a little bit more success he will be in contention for a seed at Roland Garros (currently 43rd in the world). This, though, is an especially tough test for Shapovalov. Raonic is once again thriving in these Madrid conditions, serving right at 70 percent through two rounds with a total of 29 aces and three double-faults.

Pick: Raonic in 2

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33 Comments on Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Raonic vs. Shapovalov

  1. Rafa has come out serving better in this match. Diego looks like he wants to make a match out of this.

  2. Diego can play very well on clay and he’s able to hang on with Rafa from the baseline way better than many players ranked higher than him.

  3. Imo Rafa is not playing the right way vs Diego; Diego likes rhythm and pace, Rafa should throw in some slices, varies the pace and keeps Diego off guard.

  4. Finally Rafa gets the break, he couldve broken serve in Diego’s first service game but Diego played well to outfox Rafa to hold serve.

  5. Yes, Rafa wins his 49th straight set on clay, vamos!

    Rafa did vary his game, more topspin slower pace (moonballing?) and threw in a timely dropshot too when Diego least expected it.

    • Moonballing will always be a great approach to dismantle Diego on clay.If Rafa’s able to play deep,it’s very hard for Diego to stay close to the baseline given his height.

  6. Rafa’s FH is terrible today, more UEs than winners. I think he felt pressurized by Diego’s hard hitting and passing shots from both wings. Diego is able to force errors out of Rafa.

    Rafa is gifted the break back when Diego DF’d; Rafa for goodness sake please serve out the match! Rafa not hitting well today, being rushed no doubt but he’s not doing everything all that well, rushed to the net for nothing only to be passed by Diego’s great passing shots.

  7. I think Rafa has been making too many errors. He got lucky to get the break back with the DF from Diego.

  8. Rafa go lucky to get the break back Thought he was about to lose his 2 set winning record. Diego must be furious with himself

  9. Vamos Rafa! And grats on the new record – whether you’re impressed by it or no. 🙂 (Rafa seems to be from the “just win baby” school)

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