Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Raonic vs. Shapovalov

Rafael Nadal continue his bid for a sixth Madrid title when he goes up against Diego Schwartzman during third-round action on Thursday. Fellow Canadians Milos Raonic and Denis Shapovalov are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (13) Diego Schwartzman

Nadal and Schwartzman will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers when they meet again in round three of the Mutua Madrid Open on Thursday. All four of their previous encounters have gone the way of Nadal, who is 10-1 in total sets. Schwartzman has, however, been competitive at times; including a 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-5 loss at the 2015 U.S. Open and a 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3 setback at this year’s Australian Open.

Taking a set off the Spaniard–as Schwartzman did Down Under–is not something anyone has been able to accomplish in Nadal’s last 48 sets of clay-court tennis dating back to the 2017 French Open. The world No. 1’s current stretch of dominance includes a 10th title at Roland Garros, 11th triumphs in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, two Davis Cup wins, and a 6-3, 6-1 beatdown of Gael Monfils on Wednesday. Schwartzman’s clay-court campaign began with early losses in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Munich–where he compiled a combined 1-3 record. But the 16th-ranked Argentine is still in contention for a top 16 seed at the French Open and he has boosted his chances in that department with Madrid victories over Adrian Mannarino and Feliciano Lopez. Schwartzman is not in the kind of peak form necessary to give Nadal a real test–and neither is anyone else, except for perhaps a huge server who can occasionally take the racket out of Nadal’s hands.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Denis Shapovalov vs. Milos Raonic

It will be an all-Canadian affair when Raonic and Shapovalov go head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Thursday. Grass may the preferred surface of the one-time Wimbledon finalist, but he is also quite capable on clay. Raonic, who was one set away from the French Open quarterfinals last spring, is one round away from a third trip to the Madrid quarters following wins this week over Nicolas Kicker and No. 3 seed Grigor Dimitrov.

Shapovalov has already enjoyed a productive week, as well, with defeats of Tennys Sandgren (6-1, 6-4) and Benoit Paire (7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4). The 19-year-old is inexperienced on clay, but the two aforementioned performances were encouraging and with a little bit more success he will be in contention for a seed at Roland Garros (currently 43rd in the world). This, though, is an especially tough test for Shapovalov. Raonic is once again thriving in these Madrid conditions, serving right at 70 percent through two rounds with a total of 29 aces and three double-faults.

Pick: Raonic in 2

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40 Comments on Madrid R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Raonic vs. Shapovalov

  1. Rafa and Raonic in 2. Rafa was on another level vs Monfils today and can only get better. Will be scary good by the time RG comes around

  2. Got to agree with the picks; Raonic is playing well again and I think he’ll make fewer errors than Shapo even if both can serve very well.

    Nothing more to say about Rafa, just hope that he gets better, as his draw is getting tougher and tougher as he progresses.

  3. I think Rafa had his easy match. It will get tougher from here on out. I expect Rafa to get better with each match. He played better in the second set, but Monfils really wasn’t putting in much effort.

    Raonic seems to be getting back into form and the conditions here would suit his game. I think he gets the win over Shapo.

    • It may have looked like Monfils wasn’t trying but courtside, he was. Rafa didn’t get the win easily; if Rafa had dropped his guard one little bit he may not have won, not so easily, anyway.

    • First is vulnerable in clay only in his first match of the tournament, where he loses more games than usual.

      From now on juggernaut will roll. Not more than 24 games will be lost by Rafa, from now to final

    • Hope that guy bets big Sanju! Only thing that can stop Rafa is injury or if eventually he overplays and get tired.

  4. Rafa to take the win in routine sets,something like 6-3/6-3.
    Raonic for the win,Shapo’ ROS not that good and he’s still very inconsistent and doesn’t feel comfortable at all on clay.

  5. Raonic looks so lack lustre whilst Shapovalov looks sharp and energetic; Shapo takes the first set.

    It’s really a joke clay court, when both of them playing like it’s a HC! It’s just about big serving, hard hitting from the baseline and short point tennis; both but exp Raonic can’t hold up if the rally goes a bit longer.

    • You’re so right Lucky,I remember the early 2000’s where we had so many clay court specialists. Now,it seems like everyone’s growing up on hard courts and plays the same way in all kind of surfaces. In grass it’s even worst than clay at the moment,many guys look like amateurs moving on the surface.

      • Yep, thats what I was saying some time earlier. The players now are all playing attacking tennis on clay as if its a HC, serving big and hitting as hard as possible; there’re not many traditional clay court players left. Those still around, like ARV, couldnt withstand the power thrown at him/them.

        We talked about the courts playing about the same speed, ie slow, regardless of the surfaces and many said that helped the big four to dominate as they could play the same game on any surface without having to adapt much.

        I think now we are seeing something similar in the younger generation, as most if not all of them are playing the power game and they play the same way on any surface. I see Shapo for example hardly needs to adjust his game to play on clay, he just serves big and hits hard and it works for him!

  6. Raonic looks so slow whilst Shapo looks like he can run the whole day. Raonic not even trying to move forward when it looks like Shapo is winning the baseline rallies.

  7. Well done to Shapo, just going for his shots. It’ll be interesting to see how Edmund handles him; Edmund can move better than Raonic and has a big FH as well.

    Raonic looked old and slow vs Shapo, he’s not winning staying at the baseline; surprising that he hardly attempted to move inside the court; he’s not able to counter Shapo’s firepower from the baseline.

    • Fortunately I was wrong and Shapo got the win,I like his character and he represents a much needed breath of fresh air for the circuit. The way Edmund’s backhand gonna hold Shapo’s powerful ground game will be a key point,imo.

      • I prefer Tsitsipas TBH, as hes not all about hard hitting when he plays on clay. The boy has a good game on clay, he at least can rally and constructs points on clay.

        I guess hes better on slower surfaces whilst Shapo with his fiery nature and firepower, prefers the quicker court. The clay courts at Madrid suits Shapo’s game but I doubt he would do better when he gets to Rome, where the courts are slower there.

        I dont really like big serving and hard hitting tennis; its like using raw power to overcome your opponent.

        • “Stef” is my new favorite of the youngsters — for now. We’ll see how he goes on grass. I hope he can be good on all surfaces but I didn’t notice him much until MC on slow clay.

          Delpo struggling to hold serve right now vs Lajovic. Lajovic is playing with confidence – he likes Madrid. I fear for my Delpo pick right now.

          • I agree,regarding point construction Tsitsipas is clearly far ahead of Shapo. Normally I also prefer the baseline grinders to the guys that go out there hitting bombs all the time,but Shapo really has something that captivates me. Stefanos has the potential to be a big player,at the moment his game has some holes,especially in hardcourtsand the reverse happens with Shapo on clay.

      • You know what, I think Shapo reminds us of a young Rafa – his demeanour, his bouncing at the baseline waiting to return serves, his fist pumping, he’s a lefty, he’s so full of energy and running all over the place.

        When Rafa first came onto the scene, he was also very aggressive, definitely more aggressive and more attacking than he is now. It’s just that Rafa didn’t have a great serve like that of Shapo’s but Rafa had better court craft, knowing and sensing when was the right time to move forward to attack.

        • Compared to Shapo, Tsitsipas looks more gentle. I’ve noticed him last year, when he was even younger looking, spotting a clean cut look (cleanly shaven, non scruffy look)and he has very nice but a little bit girlish features. He was already getting some attention then, being one of the more promising prospects.

        • Yeah,who knows,maybe the similarities echo in my subconscious and make me like Shapo. The way Rafa was able to cover the court was simply unreal,his explosion legs power was the best I’ve ever seen.

    • Delpo lost? Wow! I was checking in on that match and saw Lajovic win the second set. That is a surprise.

        • rc,

          Hey! Nice to see you here again! Still doing the bracket challenges!

          I haven’t done them in a while.

          It’s Rafa time!
          😀

  8. Anyone watching Thiem vs Coric? The match goes the distance and the points are getting ridiculously incredibly good! My goodness, the two of them, the way they retrieve and hitting the ball to barely going over the net is simply unreal!

    Thiem finally up a break and is serving for the match at 5-4 third set! Wow, Thiem hits a ridiculous BZh DRK and his 40-0 and has MPs! He takes the match, well done, a hard fought match!

      • Only caught bits of the match. Have to watch it later. Wow, Dominic Thiem must have really wanted it. Congrats to Thiem!

        Appears Zverev is in control vs Mayer. But today is a day of surprises… in WTA, too, but that’s quite normal.

  9. I only saw the end of Thiem/Coric. But i thought that Thiem would get himself going in the clay season. It looks like he might be getting there.

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