Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the second time in a clay-court final this season when they battle for the Mutua Madrid Open title on Sunday.
Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 3-1 (all on clay) after beating Thiem 6-4, 6-1 just two weeks ago to lift the Barcelona trophy. The Austrian’s lone victory came via a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) decision in the 2016 Buenos Aires semis, while Nadal also cruised to straight-set wins in 2014 (French Open) and 2016 (Monte-Carlo).
These are the two best clay-courters in the sport right now, so a high-quality contest should be in the cards. The question is if Thiem can sustain a high enough level for two full sets, and perhaps three, which is something he was unable to do in a Barcelona showdown that took a drastic turn from competitive to one-sided in a hurry. The good news for Madrid’s eighth seed is that he has conserved energy in the form of three routine matches to offset his 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(9) thriller against Grigor Dimitrov in which he saved five match points. Thiem has otherwise coasted past Jared Donaldson, Borna Coric, and Pablo Cuevas.
Like the world No. 9, Nadal endured one scare en route to championship Sunday. The fifth-ranked Spaniard got his three-setter out of the way early, as he outlasted Fabio Fognini 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-4 and then rolled over Nick Kyrgios, David Goffin, and second-seeded Novak Djokovic. Nadal had lost seven straight matches and 15 consecutive sets in that head-to-head series before defeating Djokovic 6-2, 6-4 on Saturday afternoon.
“If I’m at my best and he’s at his best on clay, he’s probably the better player,” Thiem admitted. “If you see his records on this surface, it’s just amazing. But tomorrow is a new day. I will try to improve the things I didn’t do that [well] in Barcelona and then we will see what happens…. I think he played a very good match in Barcelona. I played well also.”
And therein lies the problem. When Nadal is at his best on the red stuff, as he has been for approximately nine of the last 12 years, it hardly matters what is going on across the net. Even if Thiem plays well, he will struggle to penetrate Nadal’s defense–especially on clay and from his preferred positioning so far behind his own baseline.
Expect something similar to their Rome tilt, with Thiem contending for a while before the weight of having to hit too many low-percentage shots during tough baseline rallies becomes too great.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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Thiem’s slice, drops shots have a lot of room for improvement. He will need that going forward. Rafa is a more well-rounded and that helps the spaniard.
Okay deuce. Here is a chance.
Nope. Rafa has to hold again.
My nerves are shot.
Yes! One more game!
Chance squandered! Rafa takes a good two sets of tennis and still could only break serves once, despite all the BPs! Quite un-Rafalike.
Two match points gone.
vamossss! great clay court tennis to take that game! Now break here Rafa !
INCREDIBLE RAFA NADAL! what a forehand DTL
Not a bad time to bring out your deadliest weapon! two match points for the god of clay!
Reminds me of the match with Dimi. Fighting off match points.
Now I have to bite my nails as Rafa serves for the match.
How many chances Rafa must squander??
Thiem is still trying his best. His forehand winner at deuce was LOADED with topspin. Solid hold from thiem.
Rafa, please hold!!
Rafa simply just has too much respect for Thiem! Thiem is serving well no doubt, but Rafa is rather passive during those BP chances.
0-30 I do not believe this.
0-15!! nervous
can’t have a nice and calm finish, can we? 15-40
Excellent serving!!! vamosssssssssssss
Rafa you are killing me!
WHAT A FOREHANDDDDDDDDDDD
He just cannot do it.
Match point. Rafa please get it done now.
Nope.
Another match point.
Thank God! Rafa wins!
Rafa is the 5-time Madrid champion!!!!! ? ? ? ? ?
Yayyyyy!!!!!
? ? ? ? ?
Oh Thank U God!!Thank U!!!!
So nervy this last game, Rafa finally takes it after four championship points!
Rafa is truly very nervous, couldn’t string two good enough serves to take the match after so many tries until finally!
Credit to Thiem for playing very well and pushing Rafa all the way, he’s not even nervous it seems!
yeah but he had no hesitation when facing those break points. He was the aggressor and had plenty of belief he could do it. That’s what confidence, titles and winnng streaks do for you! RAFA IS THE BEST.