Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the second time in a clay-court final this season when they battle for the Mutua Madrid Open title on Sunday.
Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 3-1 (all on clay) after beating Thiem 6-4, 6-1 just two weeks ago to lift the Barcelona trophy. The Austrian’s lone victory came via a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) decision in the 2016 Buenos Aires semis, while Nadal also cruised to straight-set wins in 2014 (French Open) and 2016 (Monte-Carlo).
These are the two best clay-courters in the sport right now, so a high-quality contest should be in the cards. The question is if Thiem can sustain a high enough level for two full sets, and perhaps three, which is something he was unable to do in a Barcelona showdown that took a drastic turn from competitive to one-sided in a hurry. The good news for Madrid’s eighth seed is that he has conserved energy in the form of three routine matches to offset his 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(9) thriller against Grigor Dimitrov in which he saved five match points. Thiem has otherwise coasted past Jared Donaldson, Borna Coric, and Pablo Cuevas.
Like the world No. 9, Nadal endured one scare en route to championship Sunday. The fifth-ranked Spaniard got his three-setter out of the way early, as he outlasted Fabio Fognini 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-4 and then rolled over Nick Kyrgios, David Goffin, and second-seeded Novak Djokovic. Nadal had lost seven straight matches and 15 consecutive sets in that head-to-head series before defeating Djokovic 6-2, 6-4 on Saturday afternoon.
“If I’m at my best and he’s at his best on clay, he’s probably the better player,” Thiem admitted. “If you see his records on this surface, it’s just amazing. But tomorrow is a new day. I will try to improve the things I didn’t do that [well] in Barcelona and then we will see what happens…. I think he played a very good match in Barcelona. I played well also.”
And therein lies the problem. When Nadal is at his best on the red stuff, as he has been for approximately nine of the last 12 years, it hardly matters what is going on across the net. Even if Thiem plays well, he will struggle to penetrate Nadal’s defense–especially on clay and from his preferred positioning so far behind his own baseline.
Expect something similar to their Rome tilt, with Thiem contending for a while before the weight of having to hit too many low-percentage shots during tough baseline rallies becomes too great.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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WWW?
Rafa in two
Rafa in two tight sets, 7-6, 7-5.
Rafa in 2 sets. 7-6 6-3
sounds about right
Thiem
stick to WTA
Hilarious reply from Ricky 🙂
Bhahahahaha
Any particular reason for the call, Addict?
Hey guys!Check this out!!
http://www.tennisworldusa.org/news/news/Rafael_Nadal/43323/fabio-fognini-makes-fun-of-nadal-s-otitis-on-instagram/
Fog has always seemed uncultured with his rather barbaric behavior on court…this is just another proof of his immature actions…if I were him I would be more worried about meeting Andy in Rome…I am pretty sure Andy will beat him handily…
Mira Andi (AT 9:20 AM),
Gatto Luigi, a young Italian guy, who is the author of the article you posted, has to read this:
https://www.brisbaneinternational.com.au/2016/01/federer-books-dimitrov-rematch
That is about as tasteless as anything I have seen! I am not a fan of Fog as it is, but this is really just boorish beyond belief!
Ha ha, the elephant looks cute!!! Let Fabio have his fun and let Rafa have all the wins! Who cares?
The final will be a real test of Thiem’s fitness and stamina. He won his SF in straight sets but the match went on to way past midnight and he looked exhausted after some of the extended rallies. Luckily for him his serve held up winning him a lot of free points.
Hope he has sufficient in the tank to make it an interesting final – unlike their last meeting when he buckled under the pressure.
Rafa in 2
Meant to say ‘under the relentless pressure from Rafa
Would be a similar scoreline to the the Barcelona final.
6pm start gives enough rest to Thiem. He is young and fit, playing late is not an issue. Rafa OTOH had mentally demanding match vs Nole and I hope he is focused and mentally strong in the finals not to let Thiem take a set of him! This should be over in 2 with one break in each set!
Both players have Rome to deal with no need to go through a triller here…
Vamos Rafa!
Hope it’s a better final than in Barcelona.
Rafa in 2
Yes…Rafa has just too much going on these days (and months!!)…he’s BACK!!!…in two.
The mind says Rafa but the heart wants a change now, someone new but beating Rafa is next to impossible on clay. However Thiem does have a chance, but it’ll be Rafa in 3 …… http://www.138mph.com/rafael-nadal-vs-dominic-thiem-present-vs-future/
Where’s hawkeye?
Keep your mind sharp and focused, remain confident, be strong and show your warrior spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_ysXxQXYAAtXUr.jpg
Go for it Rafa! Let’s do this!
Vamos champ!
?
Poor drop shot from Rafa.
Comes back with a wide out serve.
Deuce on Rafa’s serve.
Break point for Thiem. He’s come out focused and playing well.
Bad strategy from Rafa with another poorly timed drop shot. Thiem gets the early break.
I never like seeing Rafa get broken early. He doesn’t look as sharp as he did against Novak.
Nny!Maybe nervous again??
Rafa looks like having low energy level. I don’t have good feeling about this match. Thiem will be hitting as hard as possible to blow Rafa off the court.
I agree. Rafa doesn’t have the intensity he had yesterday. He looks flat. Thiem has come out strong and is just outplaying Rafa right now. Maybe it took too much out of Rafa to beat Novak.
Rafa serves poorly, returns poorly so far. It looks like another Foggy match on the card. Thiem isn’t serving that great but Rafa can’t capitalize because he’s returning poorly!
Even though that drop shot worked, I don’t love it. But at least he’s trying to change up the patterns.
At least Rafa is thinking out there. He’s trying to disrupt Thiem who is content to power his shots from the back of the court.
I have to believe that Rafa will get himself going and use the right tactics.
Rafa, please don’t stay at the baseline to rally with Thiem; he’s hitting so hard you can’t out rally him! Come forward, make him run! Please serves and returns properly, Rafa!!
He’s trying to change it up.
I feared Rafa would come out mentally spent…he is having slow start, serving poorly, no energy…hope this changes soon otherwise Rafa loses this set…
Now that is Rafa! What a point!
Unreal from Rafa! Two break points!
Yes Rafa breaks back!! Vamos!!!