Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the second time in a clay-court final this season when they battle for the Mutua Madrid Open title on Sunday.
Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 3-1 (all on clay) after beating Thiem 6-4, 6-1 just two weeks ago to lift the Barcelona trophy. The Austrian’s lone victory came via a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) decision in the 2016 Buenos Aires semis, while Nadal also cruised to straight-set wins in 2014 (French Open) and 2016 (Monte-Carlo).
These are the two best clay-courters in the sport right now, so a high-quality contest should be in the cards. The question is if Thiem can sustain a high enough level for two full sets, and perhaps three, which is something he was unable to do in a Barcelona showdown that took a drastic turn from competitive to one-sided in a hurry. The good news for Madrid’s eighth seed is that he has conserved energy in the form of three routine matches to offset his 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(9) thriller against Grigor Dimitrov in which he saved five match points. Thiem has otherwise coasted past Jared Donaldson, Borna Coric, and Pablo Cuevas.
Like the world No. 9, Nadal endured one scare en route to championship Sunday. The fifth-ranked Spaniard got his three-setter out of the way early, as he outlasted Fabio Fognini 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-4 and then rolled over Nick Kyrgios, David Goffin, and second-seeded Novak Djokovic. Nadal had lost seven straight matches and 15 consecutive sets in that head-to-head series before defeating Djokovic 6-2, 6-4 on Saturday afternoon.
“If I’m at my best and he’s at his best on clay, he’s probably the better player,” Thiem admitted. “If you see his records on this surface, it’s just amazing. But tomorrow is a new day. I will try to improve the things I didn’t do that [well] in Barcelona and then we will see what happens…. I think he played a very good match in Barcelona. I played well also.”
And therein lies the problem. When Nadal is at his best on the red stuff, as he has been for approximately nine of the last 12 years, it hardly matters what is going on across the net. Even if Thiem plays well, he will struggle to penetrate Nadal’s defense–especially on clay and from his preferred positioning so far behind his own baseline.
Expect something similar to their Rome tilt, with Thiem contending for a while before the weight of having to hit too many low-percentage shots during tough baseline rallies becomes too great.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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Good to hear that Rafa will be calm and more relaxed playing at Rome after what he has already achieved at Madrid. I hope he wins his matches quickly like in MC or Barcelona. The conditions at Madrid was tough for everyone, so Rafa had to spend more time on the court.
I hope Rafa beats all his opponents, whoever they are, to win again in Rome and has enough energy for the big trophy at RG. Vamos Rafa!
The Juggernaut springs back to life again and start collecting silverwares. However, the more he is winning the more his fans deteriorate their health because it is truly energy zapping by just watching him play. No Rafan ever seated in a chair comfortably while watching as they do the ump-ing and eke-ing in unison every time he hit the ball and as exhausted as him when the match is over LOL.