Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

Shockingly, Juan Martin Del Potro has never won a Masters 1000 title. For the fourth time in his otherwise illustrious career, he is one victory away from accomplishing that elusive feat.

In order to finally lunge across the finish line, Del Potro will have to upset world No. 1 and 27-time Masters 1000 champion Roger Federer in the BNP Paribas Open title match on Sunday afternoon.

This marks the 25th career contest between Federer and Del Potro, with the Swiss leading the head-to-head series 18-6. It is really much more competitive than the 18-6 number suggests, as these two fan favorites have waged all kinds of memorable battles against each other. In fact, without a myriad of injury issues endured by Del Potro this would undoubtedly be one of the best rivalries in recent tennis history.

Federer and Del Potro did not face each other once in 2014, 2015, or 2016, but that all changed thanks to the Argentine’s resurgence last season. They squared off four times, with Federer getting the job done in Miami, Shanghai, and Basel in addition to Del Potro’s 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 upset in the U.S. Open quarterfinals.

A much healthier and in-form Federer should be on display now that he presumably is dealing with no back problems. The 36-year-old Swiss went on to capture titles in Shanghai and Basel after beating Del Potro, and doing the same in Indian Wells would give him back-to-back winner’s trophies at the fifth biggest tournament in the world. His title defense has been successful but also rocky, featuring wins over Federico Delbonis, Filip Krajinovic, Jeremy Chardy, Hyeon Chung, and Borna Coric. Federer’s semifinal against Coric was an especially tumultuous affair, as the top seed recovered from a set deficit and from a break down in both the second and third.

Del Potro dropped sets to Leonardo Mayer and Philipp Kohlschreiber earlier in the fortnight, but for the most part he has been the best player in the desert so far. The 29-year-old is coming off an impressive 6-2, 6-3 semifinal beatdown of Milos Raonic.

Still, Del Potro is not as reliable as his Indian Wells results would suggest. He has losses in 2018 to Roberto Bautista Agut (Auckland), Frances Tiafoe (Delray Beach), and Tomas Berdych (Australian Open). Although none of those are particularly terrible, Del Potro was a considerable favorite in all three matches and he got blown out by Berdych 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 during third-round action Down Under.

Not many other players have found the correct tactics to beat Del Potro, which requires a steady diet of heavy shots to the backhand side and the right times to pull the trigger to the deuce court–getting the world No. 8 on the run to his forehand side. Federer is a master of implementing effective game-plans–against Del Potro and against everyone else. The 20-time major champion dug his way out of countless holes against Coric by changing the rhythm of the match, and he may do something to produce a similar escape against a red-hot Del Potro.

Pick: Federer in 3

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42 Comments on Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

  1. Fed to serve for the match. He’s turned it around by changing things up a bit, as he did yesterday. Delpo isn’t quite as comfortable dealing with change of pace and being moved up and down the court. And at 6’6″ playing in the hot sun, he’s starting to tire.

  2. There’s a big bracket win on the line: Mira Andi wins if Delpo does!!
    It’s Mira Andi vs all the Federer brackets 😀 Vamos

    • I’ll be damned. Delpo REALLY wants this and he could do it if he can break Fed or maybe a small gift from RF? This is good.

  3. And how come Fed still not tired after more than 4 hrs now??He looks as fresh as my daisies!!..I’m scratching my head!!

      • Yeah Hawks!…I’ve been thinking about this mystery for a long time now…Sorry to all nice Fedfans but it seems….surreal…

        • It’s bizarre MA.

          It must be something if a great, kind and fair person like yourself is speculating and saying so on this forum.

          Seriously. Long match yesterday and same today and no sign of breathing hard nor tiring at that age?

          Listen, his outlandish talent is undeniable and he may be the greatest of all time – I have no quarrel with that opinion even if it isn’t my own.

          But so many, even fedfans, used age and natural resultant degradation as a reason for diminishing stamina.

          But not one person is supposed to speculate because of who it is?

          Just no.

          • Yeah Hawks!…I have to say sorry once again to all Fedfans..i love u guys & i know i will feel very guilty to u guys for talking about this..but…i’ve stored in my chest for so long now..i had to get it out…

            It seems unthinkable to me..if he is still 30 or 31,32..i can accept it without too much scratching to my head…but he is 36,outlast all his younger opponents in a Bo5 or Masters & still standing strongly & continue his domination for 15 months straight without being tired?I mean,all his younger opponents sweating & breathing heavily after such a long & hard match..in a hot sun?I mean…take a look at Rafa…the season still not finish last year,but his body already failed him….But Fed…Wow!this mystery is mind boggling to me!!

          • Ditto MA.

            Also, the number of injured players at the moment is unprecedented. I’ve never seen anything like it.

        • And yes MA, he’s by a huge margin better than anyone I’ve seen play tennis 33 or older. Almost four years older.

          A big racquet doesn’t give you limitless stamina at almost 37.

    • Hehehe…Once again thank u Smartest Pantzz!…And i would like to share my prize money[i was told upped to 1 Billion this year] with my fellow Bracketeers…let’s go enjoy in an island somewhere guys!Wooooohooooo!!

      • One small request, MA, the island will broadcast tennis, of course, and have wifi for us to play the bracket challenge 😀

        I love Delpo…always have. Happy for him. Also hoping he goes deep in Miami where he’ll have a ton of fans cheering him Vamos Delpo!

        • RC!…I will buy u a mother of a broadcast & wifi for u guys to enjoy!!Yeehaa!!

          But,it’s really interesting to pick a Miami Bracket rc considering he’s playing & winning too much tennis now…Can he do it for 3 straight tourneys?I honestly don’t think so rc…i certainly won’t pick him..there’s so many guys out there who’s got much fresher legs than him…

  4. What a match. This is one of the best moments for Del Potro, without a doubt. Saving three match points on Roger’s serve is very tough to do.

    • Of course he can. He almost managed to do for a third straight time what he did in their last two matches – come back from a set down to win. So I definitely would not say Federer “can’t figure out how to beat Del Po anymore”, because that would imply that Federer hasn’t beaten him recently, when he actually had won 3 of their last 4 matches.

      What I have noticed, though, is that Fed definitely does have a bit of a mental problema when facing Del Po in the biggest matches in recent times. Specifically at the US Open last year and now the IW Final. Fed had to come back from a set down against Del Po to win their last two matches, and he was mentally tough to come through those, especially in Basel where he had been beaten by Del Po twice in the final. But that mental toughness did not show quite enough in today’s match, and it REALLY didn’t show up at US Open. Sure, he did really well to push it to a third set and then serve for the match. But he got tight in the wrong moments, and this has happened to him a few times now against Del Po.

      Anyway, Del Po is definitely a really tough matchup for Fed, but let’s not pretend like he “can’t find a way to beat Del Po now” when he won 3 out of 4 of their matches before today, and is 18-7 overall against him. I think what you meant to say was, “Fed couldn’t find a way to beat Del Po today.”

  5. Vamosssss Delpo! You deserved it!
    When Delpo played Milos I cheered for Delpo as I knew he could and should beat the maestro of arrogance! And so he did!
    Bravo Delpo!!!

  6. Wow. There’s no question that nerves are a factor when facing Del Po in big matches these days. At both the US Open and now Indian Wells, he couldn’t win the biggest and most important moments. I’m just so glad that we have a legitimate rival to Fed right now. At least there’s one!

    I am over the moon for De Po right now. He deserves big titles. He will surely get a BIG confidence boost.

    • Awww!Thank u so much Ramara!…Let’s go!I’ll buy u an ice cream!

      Hey!…U joined Bracket too Ramara?In a jalep wildguess?

      • Yes to that ice cream!! But, no, I have not joined Bracket. I am terrible at predicting tennis. 🙂 I did pick DelPo to win IW and to win the final but just in the polls. Didn’t want to influence any bets since it was just a hunch.

        Grats to Roger for all his success this year but really, the commies drool too much. It’s not like he’s actually played anyone, you know? Well, no one much to play any more and there’s something to be said for being the last man standing, especially when you’re also the oldest man. Really, really hope Rafa, especially Rafa, can come back healthy. But also Wawa and Muzz and the Joker! I want Competition back. And yes, I’ll be delighted if JMDP can keep it up.

        • Yes!!!…Wait a minute k Ramara!…I have to hollered to RC & the gangs first!…
          Hey!…It’s s shame u won’t join us on TDC..C’mon!It’s fun Ramara!..and if your first attempt will not excites u,then u don’t have to do it anymore..besides,u never know whether u sucks at this or not unless u try it first?How about it sis?C’mon!Pweeeaassse!

          And yeah!…Really happy for DelPo too for his win!1st masters at the age of 30?Hope he will keep healthy after this so he can collect as many masters as he can…

  7. There is just nothing that feels better than when someone who deserves something so much finally gets what they fought and worked hard for…

    We knew this match would likely go the distance, and Del Po showed the most amazing resilience. I give props to Federer for fighting hard himself, but Del Po was too clutch today!

    I don’t know about you all, but I hope we get another Del Federer final! Cuz let’s face it, no one who is healthy right now can truly challenge Fed in the big matches like Del Po can, and I want to see good competitive matches. I think Coric also showed this week that if a select few of these younger guys play really well, they can have a shot at beating Fed, at least in best-of-three.

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