Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

Shockingly, Juan Martin Del Potro has never won a Masters 1000 title. For the fourth time in his otherwise illustrious career, he is one victory away from accomplishing that elusive feat.

In order to finally lunge across the finish line, Del Potro will have to upset world No. 1 and 27-time Masters 1000 champion Roger Federer in the BNP Paribas Open title match on Sunday afternoon.

This marks the 25th career contest between Federer and Del Potro, with the Swiss leading the head-to-head series 18-6. It is really much more competitive than the 18-6 number suggests, as these two fan favorites have waged all kinds of memorable battles against each other. In fact, without a myriad of injury issues endured by Del Potro this would undoubtedly be one of the best rivalries in recent tennis history.

Federer and Del Potro did not face each other once in 2014, 2015, or 2016, but that all changed thanks to the Argentine’s resurgence last season. They squared off four times, with Federer getting the job done in Miami, Shanghai, and Basel in addition to Del Potro’s 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 upset in the U.S. Open quarterfinals.

A much healthier and in-form Federer should be on display now that he presumably is dealing with no back problems. The 36-year-old Swiss went on to capture titles in Shanghai and Basel after beating Del Potro, and doing the same in Indian Wells would give him back-to-back winner’s trophies at the fifth biggest tournament in the world. His title defense has been successful but also rocky, featuring wins over Federico Delbonis, Filip Krajinovic, Jeremy Chardy, Hyeon Chung, and Borna Coric. Federer’s semifinal against Coric was an especially tumultuous affair, as the top seed recovered from a set deficit and from a break down in both the second and third.

Del Potro dropped sets to Leonardo Mayer and Philipp Kohlschreiber earlier in the fortnight, but for the most part he has been the best player in the desert so far. The 29-year-old is coming off an impressive 6-2, 6-3 semifinal beatdown of Milos Raonic.

Still, Del Potro is not as reliable as his Indian Wells results would suggest. He has losses in 2018 to Roberto Bautista Agut (Auckland), Frances Tiafoe (Delray Beach), and Tomas Berdych (Australian Open). Although none of those are particularly terrible, Del Potro was a considerable favorite in all three matches and he got blown out by Berdych 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 during third-round action Down Under.

Not many other players have found the correct tactics to beat Del Potro, which requires a steady diet of heavy shots to the backhand side and the right times to pull the trigger to the deuce court–getting the world No. 8 on the run to his forehand side. Federer is a master of implementing effective game-plans–against Del Potro and against everyone else. The 20-time major champion dug his way out of countless holes against Coric by changing the rhythm of the match, and he may do something to produce a similar escape against a red-hot Del Potro.

Pick: Federer in 3

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37 Comments on Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

  1. One thing I’ve always loved about Del Po is that in the biggest matches, he pretty much always competes really well. Whether or not he wins in big matches, he always shows up ready to battle. You can tell by the score lines- if you look back at his matches against the big boys, he almost always takes them to a decider in best-of-three or a 4th or 5th set at majors. I wish more players competed like him against the big guys. Technically, he is one of the big guys, himself! And I mean that both literally and figuratively. 🙂

    Del Po has now won the first set for four straight matches vs. Federer. Fed managed to pull out the last two. Getting three come-from-behind victories in a row against Del Po will be very difficult, and the odds are now stacked against him. Can he pull a repeat of his semifinal match? We shall see…. I honestly can’t even tell you how happy I would be for Del Po if he wins Indian Wells. I can’t think of a more deserving guy of a first Masters title than Del Po. Especially if he gets it off of the world #1.

  2. Fed with two of the worst FH misses I’ve ever seen him have in that last game. Fortunately, he hit a couple good ones and an ace. Still, I’m not sure what is going on with his FH today.

  3. This match is a good example of why tennis needs to get rid of human line-calling entirely and just go with hawkeye. It’s just a disruption to the play and leaves a bad taste in my mouth no matter the outcome today.

    • I don’t think it’s entitlement. He just wants to win badly like delpo does.

      What was ridiculous was Fed complaining that the ump failed to call a serve that was clearly out, out; and then hawkeye showed it was squarely on the line. But the machine made Fed look ridiculous on its own.

    • Huuuge whining vmk and yes entitlement exactly along with the adoring fans calling out in the middle of points and cheering unforced errors.

    • What top player doesn’t “whine”? They all do. They are all whiny, entitled dudes because they competitors. The best players in every sport whine. Tennis should be BK different. When people whine and complain, it’s because they wan to win that much. And that’s what we want to see in sports. But seriously, can you name a true top player who Federer whines and complains any more than. No, because they all do it.

      You can not like Federer. Hate him for all I care. But let’s not pretend like whoever your favorite player is is any better than Federer in that department. Because I would imagine you favor one of the big four, and all 4 of those guys equally have their moments of complaining and whining. That’s a fact!

      You don’t like Roger Federer. We get it.

      • He can whine all he wants. But do you ever hear him being called out for it. Never. The narrative is that Rafa takes too long, Djoko fakes in the middle of matches, Murray blasts himself
        But then just watch for the commentators oohing and aahing about what a great ambassador he is and what a gentleman he is on the court, the elegance, the poise blah blah blah…

  4. What a set. Del Potro needs to calm it down and quit worrying about the crowd. Even if it’s inexcusable, the umpire can’t stop every person from shouting out. Just deal with it and do your thing.

    • I don’t know. I think the tennis is entertaining enough; I can do without the other stuff. It reminds me of the bad old days with Connors and Mac, though nothing nearly as bad of course.

      • The match is very high quality, with Delpo dictating so much. Fed is having to really scrap. It makes a good change to see these guys get testy. Poor Fergus Murphy is having to listen to it all though.

    • I hope you realize one day that you are embarrassing yourself with all these PED arguments. Ironically, you and the Fed fans you criticize deserve each other. They cited foul play when Nadal was dominating and here you are sounding bitter daily. Get off your high horse.

      • Seriously though. Almost 37 and no endurance problems?

        It’s suspicious. And I’m not ruling out any player but this is OTT.

        • It is very suspicious but so were the 6 hour matches. There’s no point speculating though. Neither those performances nor these deserve negative speculation. Either they get caught or they don’t. There’s nothing you can do about it if the authorities want to cover up.

          • I can call it out for what I think it could be.

            Ten times worse for Rafa when even the media were speculating in 2013.

    • Hawks, c’mon…. It doesn’t feel at all wrong to have (rightfully) complained about people accusing Rafa of doping without a shred of evidence, but then turn around and do the same to Federer? Is it an act of vengeance, like tooth for a tooth, eye for an eye? What’s the deal?

  5. just tuned in…
    oh crikey.

    Poor Delpo. He is fighting for his first 1000 pt. trophy. Delpo needs block the noise out if he’s to win. And it’s all the sweeter for him if he can get this vs Federer and the crowd. Come on Delpo, Vamos!

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