Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

Shockingly, Juan Martin Del Potro has never won a Masters 1000 title. For the fourth time in his otherwise illustrious career, he is one victory away from accomplishing that elusive feat.

In order to finally lunge across the finish line, Del Potro will have to upset world No. 1 and 27-time Masters 1000 champion Roger Federer in the BNP Paribas Open title match on Sunday afternoon.

This marks the 25th career contest between Federer and Del Potro, with the Swiss leading the head-to-head series 18-6. It is really much more competitive than the 18-6 number suggests, as these two fan favorites have waged all kinds of memorable battles against each other. In fact, without a myriad of injury issues endured by Del Potro this would undoubtedly be one of the best rivalries in recent tennis history.

Federer and Del Potro did not face each other once in 2014, 2015, or 2016, but that all changed thanks to the Argentine’s resurgence last season. They squared off four times, with Federer getting the job done in Miami, Shanghai, and Basel in addition to Del Potro’s 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 upset in the U.S. Open quarterfinals.

A much healthier and in-form Federer should be on display now that he presumably is dealing with no back problems. The 36-year-old Swiss went on to capture titles in Shanghai and Basel after beating Del Potro, and doing the same in Indian Wells would give him back-to-back winner’s trophies at the fifth biggest tournament in the world. His title defense has been successful but also rocky, featuring wins over Federico Delbonis, Filip Krajinovic, Jeremy Chardy, Hyeon Chung, and Borna Coric. Federer’s semifinal against Coric was an especially tumultuous affair, as the top seed recovered from a set deficit and from a break down in both the second and third.

Del Potro dropped sets to Leonardo Mayer and Philipp Kohlschreiber earlier in the fortnight, but for the most part he has been the best player in the desert so far. The 29-year-old is coming off an impressive 6-2, 6-3 semifinal beatdown of Milos Raonic.

Still, Del Potro is not as reliable as his Indian Wells results would suggest. He has losses in 2018 to Roberto Bautista Agut (Auckland), Frances Tiafoe (Delray Beach), and Tomas Berdych (Australian Open). Although none of those are particularly terrible, Del Potro was a considerable favorite in all three matches and he got blown out by Berdych 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 during third-round action Down Under.

Not many other players have found the correct tactics to beat Del Potro, which requires a steady diet of heavy shots to the backhand side and the right times to pull the trigger to the deuce court–getting the world No. 8 on the run to his forehand side. Federer is a master of implementing effective game-plans–against Del Potro and against everyone else. The 20-time major champion dug his way out of countless holes against Coric by changing the rhythm of the match, and he may do something to produce a similar escape against a red-hot Del Potro.

Pick: Federer in 3

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41 Comments on Indian Wells final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

  1. Over the years I’ve noticed Fed has often fallen at the final fence if he wants something badly – particularly when it has meant another entry in the record books. He completely crumbled in the dying stages of the match while Delpo held his nerve and against the odds pulled out the win to lift his first Master’s trophy.

  2. Congrats to DelPo, I didn’t get to see it but it looks like it was a great match – not unexpected since the Fed/DelPo ones usually are.

    That this is DelPo’s first Masters title shows (1) Just how much injuries have kept him out of it; and (2) Just how hard it has been to win a single big tournament in recent years. He certainly had to earn this one and he really deserves it.

  3. Huge congrats to Del Potro for an incredible and well-deserved win. Fed made the adjustments needed in the 2nd and 3rd sets, and got himself to where he needed to be, with two match points on serve (and then one more I believe). But Juan Martin was just better on those biggest points, that’s all. Well done!

    • vmk, both guys were complaining a lot; I thought both of them should just shut up and play. Why do you think Fed’s behaviour was worse? It’s true that some people in the pro-Fed crowd behaved horribly, but there’s nothing either the ump or Fed can do about that.

      • Where did I say Delpo was better. I would have said the same regarding Delpo if Delpo were to receive the Stefan Eberg sportsmanship award year after year like the pseudo classy champion does

        • Well, that award is voted by the players. They might get it wrong year after year, but presumably they are on to something.

          For someone who started watching tennis in the 70s, today’s bad tennis behaviour barely registers. Fed and Delpo are good friends, embraced warmly at the net after the match, and Fed was fairly classy afterwards in defeat, saying that delpo deserved to win.

          • It says it is voted for by the players. But then Rolex and the other corporate giants want the suave, urbane, gentlemanly image of his to be plastered all over the media. What better way then to give him the award.
            He has won the award in years he has won/not won grandslams or has been injured, not been no 1 or 2.
            It is all in the moment anyway. Djokovic after all his chest thumping (after his victories) was always gracious in his speech but he never got the tag of classy.
            But yeah the corporate juggernauts have built an empire on bigger lies. This is a minor thing

          • For myself, I’ve always found all of big four generally classy in their post-match interviews (the Fed post 2011 USO that you posted is a notable exception, but there are others).

            As you say, it’s generally all in the moment. Imo, almost all of it will disappear once the human element is taken out of line calling.

  4. Regarding Fed’s fitness, to my eye there was plenty of evidence of tiredness. He started slow (once again) and his large number of mis-hits speaks imo partly to tired legs. It’s true he seemed fresher at the end than his opponent, but delpo is a much bigger man. At the end of a nearly 3 hour match in the hot sun, anyone his size would be tired.

  5. Sorry for the loss to all nice Fedfans here..Joe,Eugene,Big Al,Benny…But Fed truly awesome in this match too…Tho,i don’t understand his grumpy mood last nite…This is the 1st time i see Fed in this mood..maybe he felt vulnerable against DelPo?

  6. I am shocked Fed double faulted twice in the breaker and lost three match points on his own serve. I would never expect him to lose those kind of chances when serving for it. That said, Del Po’s monstrous forehand and serve and his always incredible fighting spirit were very admirable and he fully deserved the win. So happy for him to claim a maiden masters title!

    • Benny, the other day I blew a 5-1 lead in the first set of an inter-club match, eventually losing it 7-6 in the TB. In the 2nd set, all I could think about was how I blew the lead in the first set; I lost the 2nd set 6-2.

      Even Roger Federer is not immune to the thought that he had his chance, with two match points (then another) on serve -and blew it. That can really mess with your head in the TB, which is probably what happened. Fed may well have believed at that point that del Potro deserved to win the match.

      I think Delpo was in a similar frame of mind at the beginning of the 3rd set, after blowing match point in the 2nd. Fed was very close to breaking his serve at the outset of the 3rd, and if that had happened, delpo might have crumbled and Fed run away with the set. But Juan Martin held his nerve, whereas Fed couldn’t in the 3rd set TB.

  7. That said. Delpo could burn the clay court season this year especially with Rafa being iffy.

    Also did anyone else notice it when Fed drilled a backhand into Delpo directly and with a quick wave of hand go back.

    when Rafa did it to Djoko it got so many eyeballs even though Rafa stood at the net until Djoko saw him

    • To me it looked like the only/best option to hit it at Del Po. Also the same thing for when Rafa did it. Rafa hit the right shot when Djokovic got mad. Djoko was just being a baby when that happened. It’s like when Berdych didn’t shake Almagro’s hand for doing the same thing.

      • Hitting the ball directly at the player at net is and has always been part of the game. Delpo hit one right at Fed in this match, but Fed volleyed it for a winner.

        If you don’t want to get hit by a tennis ball, all you have to do is crouch down and hold your racquet head above the net.

    • Boom vmk1. Such is the double standard.

      Delpo gave him an unbelieving long glare after being hit by such class and sportsmanship.

      It’s a ratings award. Players vote in an unverified process.

      Nole much more a sportsman in defeat, but he’s not the peRFect one.

      • “Delpo gave him an unbelieving long glare after being hit by such class and sportsmanship.”

        LOL!! Yeah I am sure Delpo’s vote for the award will go to Fed too this year. Just that Delpo wont even know

  8. To Benny G

    What exactly are you referring to when you say Rafa has had his fair share of grumpy moments? One can count on one hand the moments when he has been seriously out of sorts on court – usually when Carlos Bernardes has been in the chair.

  9. Unlike your hero, he’s never smashed his racquet, chucked water bottles around the court or made audibly insulting remarks to the chair umpire. Just saying.

  10. One final comment from me on yesterday’s match. Fed really needs to avoid the drop shot on big points, and yesterday reminded me of the 2011 RG final when he tried one and failed on set point (1st set) vs. Rafa.

    Yesterday, Fed had three set points on serve, up 5-4 in the 3rd set. On the first (40-15), Delpo constructed a nice point and hit a winner; just too good. On the second (40-30), Fed attempted an incredibly dumb drop shot from the baseline off a delpo missile. Total fail; it would have been much smarter to try to stay in the rally for awhile. The third match point (ad Fed), was the worst. Fed hit a nice deep shot to Delpo’s FH corner, forcing JM to hit a defensive shot which landed short. Ideally (imo) Fed would have followed that first shot into net and hit a volley. He didn’t, but still was in good position to hit a BH drive crosscourt, which probably would have won the match. Instead, he attempted a drop shot, executed terribly, which delpo was onto in a second and hit a nice easy passing shot down the line.

    The point isn’t that Fed failed to execute in the big moments. He did fail, but anyone can do that. Rather, it’s that he made bad decisions in the biggest moments, something that imo he does more often than one might expect, given his record. Some commentators described his attempted drop shot as a somewhat arrogant attempt to win with flair, but I think it actually shows a lack of confidence and nerve to go for the clean passing shot when you have a good chance at it.

  11. So many times he can win with his serve, either winner or set up the next shot.Not this time. For him to try dropshots on two consecutive match points is bizarre.

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