Shockingly, Juan Martin Del Potro has never won a Masters 1000 title. For the fourth time in his otherwise illustrious career, he is one victory away from accomplishing that elusive feat.
In order to finally lunge across the finish line, Del Potro will have to upset world No. 1 and 27-time Masters 1000 champion Roger Federer in the BNP Paribas Open title match on Sunday afternoon.
This marks the 25th career contest between Federer and Del Potro, with the Swiss leading the head-to-head series 18-6. It is really much more competitive than the 18-6 number suggests, as these two fan favorites have waged all kinds of memorable battles against each other. In fact, without a myriad of injury issues endured by Del Potro this would undoubtedly be one of the best rivalries in recent tennis history.
Federer and Del Potro did not face each other once in 2014, 2015, or 2016, but that all changed thanks to the Argentine’s resurgence last season. They squared off four times, with Federer getting the job done in Miami, Shanghai, and Basel in addition to Del Potro’s 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 upset in the U.S. Open quarterfinals.
A much healthier and in-form Federer should be on display now that he presumably is dealing with no back problems. The 36-year-old Swiss went on to capture titles in Shanghai and Basel after beating Del Potro, and doing the same in Indian Wells would give him back-to-back winner’s trophies at the fifth biggest tournament in the world. His title defense has been successful but also rocky, featuring wins over Federico Delbonis, Filip Krajinovic, Jeremy Chardy, Hyeon Chung, and Borna Coric. Federer’s semifinal against Coric was an especially tumultuous affair, as the top seed recovered from a set deficit and from a break down in both the second and third.
Del Potro dropped sets to Leonardo Mayer and Philipp Kohlschreiber earlier in the fortnight, but for the most part he has been the best player in the desert so far. The 29-year-old is coming off an impressive 6-2, 6-3 semifinal beatdown of Milos Raonic.
Still, Del Potro is not as reliable as his Indian Wells results would suggest. He has losses in 2018 to Roberto Bautista Agut (Auckland), Frances Tiafoe (Delray Beach), and Tomas Berdych (Australian Open). Although none of those are particularly terrible, Del Potro was a considerable favorite in all three matches and he got blown out by Berdych 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 during third-round action Down Under.
Not many other players have found the correct tactics to beat Del Potro, which requires a steady diet of heavy shots to the backhand side and the right times to pull the trigger to the deuce court–getting the world No. 8 on the run to his forehand side. Federer is a master of implementing effective game-plans–against Del Potro and against everyone else. The 20-time major champion dug his way out of countless holes against Coric by changing the rhythm of the match, and he may do something to produce a similar escape against a red-hot Del Potro.
Pick: Federer in 3
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