French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

Rafael Nadal has been perfect en route to the French Open semifinals.

The only reason why he is not perfect during this entire clay-court swing is because of the man who will oppose him on the other side of the net on Friday.

Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers and for the seventh time on clay when they collide again in the Roland Garros semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-2 in favor of the Spaniard, who has won two of their three encounters in 2017–all of which have come this spring. Nadal triumphed in straight sets during finals in Barcelona and Madrid before Thiem got revenge with a 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Rome quarterfinals.

That is Nadal’s lone blemish on the red stuff this season, as he lifted trophies in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to go along with wins this fortnight over Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta–the latter via second-set retirement on Wednesday. The nine-time French Open champion has not surrendered a set and has not even been pushed past 6-4 in any set. He has lost a grand total of 22 games in five matches.

“I am in semifinals; that’s all,” Nadal said after getting the virtual free pass from Carreno Busta. “I am in semifinals and with a very positive feelings. I played well all the matches here. Until 5-2 (when Carreno Busta got hurt), I think I was playing well today. So positive feelings and playing well.”

Thiem has been the undisputed second best player on clay this year, with a 22-4 record on the surface and a title in Rio de Janeiro. The Austrian avenged a blowout loss to Novak Djokovic in Rome by upsetting the world No. 2 and defending champion 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarterfinals. Thiem preceded that result by rolling over Bernard Tomic, Simone Bolelli, Steve Johnson, and Horacio Zeballos. Like Nadal, the 23-year-old is perfect in total sets.

“So far I have always played way worse match the following day if I beat a top guy,” admitted Thiem, who got clobbered by Djokovic after toppling Nadal in Rome. “So I hope I can improve that. I mean, it’s a joke how tough it is to win a slam. Because obviously now I beat Novak; on Friday (it) is Nadal. In the finals there is another top star. That’s why it’s a slam–because it’s such a tough achievement.”

Nadal, though, has almost made French Open titles look simple. He is a ridiculous 77-2 lifetime at this event and remains the clear favorite to win No. 10 having taken his last seven completed sets 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, and 6-2. Thiem, of course, represents much stiffer competition. At the same time, however, it has to be said that for Thiem, going from Djokovic to Nadal right now is also a massive step up.

The world No. 7 has never been to a Grand Slam final and with Nadal back in peak form, the wait may be one more year.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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28 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. Poor Thiem. Beats Nadal, Djokovic schools him. Beats Djokovic, Nadal pastes him. The big 4 dont take kindly to someone else beating their fellow members

    • Rafa my darling! I am at the hairdresser a d they all think I am nuts because I am going crazy checking the score!

      Rafa is going to do it with ease! Schooling Thiem!

  2. The thought of Rafa losing at RG once he gets through the QF is just so unthinkable…. It will take an all-time great, Herculean effort from Stan for Rafa to lose a Roland Garros final. I PRAY that Stan shows up
    to play. If he does, this has potential to be an all-time classic final… That being said, when a guy is 9-0 in RG finals, it’s just ridiculous to imagine him losing.

  3. The commentator is right, this is the first time Rafa’s match here goes over two hours!

    Rafa had won 75% of his second serve points! He bageled Thiem and only gave him seven games! He lost only 29 games in six BO5 matches, unbelievable!

    So Rafa is into his tenth FO final, and seventh final this year! I’m just so happy with the way Rafa plays, not even needs to go into fifth gear. Thiem may be playing subpar tennis today compared to his QF vs Djoko, still takes nothing away from the brilliance of Rafa! Vamos!

  4. I dont think Rafa played great today. He was solid. Served well when it mattered. But Theim was as bad as Rome honestly.

    • The fact that Stan couldn’t win his match in straight sets means he’s still inconsistent in his level of play. He broke serves but couldn’t hold on to his own service games.

      I think Rafa will up his level in the final even if Stan up his.

  5. Rafa will not let Stan play his game. He will force Stan into errors.
    it will probably be straight sets again.

  6. Rafa was tested today and saved all the break points when needed. he is so confident. La Decima is his destiny. Stan wont even come close.

    • I think Rafa is ready for Sunday. He wasn’t even at his best. It shows once again how tough it is to take out the top four back-to-back. Rafa showed Thiem why he’s the King of Clay.

      Congratulations Rafa! I am SO proud of you!

  7. I understand that Rafa is 31 years old and is not at the absolute peak of his powers. However, being 9-0 in RG finals cannot be overstated- the guy just DOES NOT lose in the final of Roland Garros! Yes, he absolutely can lose one, and Stan is probably the only guy who truly has any shot at it. But even if this isn’t quite 2013 Rafa, I just don’t see how I could give Rafa any less than a 75% chance of winning strictly going on his invincibility in RG finals… If Stan is going to win, it is going to have to be shocking. NOBODY picked him to beat Novak in 2015 when Novak was virtually unbeatable in big matches, but he shocked everyone by putting on a rare display. I believe that Stan would have to SHOCK the world with his play to beat Rafa in a RG final. Yes, he did it once before against an unstoppable force in 2015, but I just don’t see him ever replicating that level of performance again, especially not against the guy who has been challenged 9 times and won every single one of them. I think it will be Rafa for the title in 4 sets. If Stan manages to become a terminator again, then I think Stan could win in 4. But I, personally, do not see it going 5 and I just don’t expect Rafa to lose…

    • Nole was too passive in that final. Becker was dumbfounded.

      Nole definitely felt the pressure to finally win there with Rafa out of the picture.

      • Nole was also feeling tired in that final in 2015. he had a 5 hour semis against Murray. And he had beaten rafa in quarters.

  8. Rafa will not let Stan play like he did in 2015. Dont be surprised it the outcome is very similar to today’s match against theim

  9. @CarlBialik 53m53 minutes ago
    Games lost by Nadal before final at French Open:
    2017: 29
    2014: 40
    2013: 87
    2012: 35
    2011: 77
    2010: 61
    2008: 37
    2007: 51
    2006: 69
    2005: 61

  10. @gasparlanca 1h1 hour ago
    Rafa Nadal’s first six matches at #RG17:

    6-1, 6-4, 6-1
    6-1, 6-4, 6-3
    6-0, 6-1, 6-0
    6-1, 6-2, 6-2
    6-2, 2-0 ret.
    6-3, 6-4, 6-0

    Next: Final

  11. @carole_bouchard 16m16 minutes ago
    “10 is a beautiful number. Actually my favorite is 9”, Rafa for general laughter

  12. Rafa, bomaye! Bomaye Rafael Nadal!

    ATP Media Info‏Verified account @ATPMediaInfo 29m29 minutes ago
    #CryBaby bids to become 1st player outside of Big Four to reach No. 2 in Emirates #ATP Rankings since @LleytonHewitt from July 18-24, 2005.

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