Rafael Nadal has been perfect en route to the French Open semifinals.
The only reason why he is not perfect during this entire clay-court swing is because of the man who will oppose him on the other side of the net on Friday.
Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers and for the seventh time on clay when they collide again in the Roland Garros semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-2 in favor of the Spaniard, who has won two of their three encounters in 2017–all of which have come this spring. Nadal triumphed in straight sets during finals in Barcelona and Madrid before Thiem got revenge with a 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Rome quarterfinals.
That is Nadal’s lone blemish on the red stuff this season, as he lifted trophies in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to go along with wins this fortnight over Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta–the latter via second-set retirement on Wednesday. The nine-time French Open champion has not surrendered a set and has not even been pushed past 6-4 in any set. He has lost a grand total of 22 games in five matches.
“I am in semifinals; that’s all,” Nadal said after getting the virtual free pass from Carreno Busta. “I am in semifinals and with a very positive feelings. I played well all the matches here. Until 5-2 (when Carreno Busta got hurt), I think I was playing well today. So positive feelings and playing well.”
Thiem has been the undisputed second best player on clay this year, with a 22-4 record on the surface and a title in Rio de Janeiro. The Austrian avenged a blowout loss to Novak Djokovic in Rome by upsetting the world No. 2 and defending champion 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarterfinals. Thiem preceded that result by rolling over Bernard Tomic, Simone Bolelli, Steve Johnson, and Horacio Zeballos. Like Nadal, the 23-year-old is perfect in total sets.
“So far I have always played way worse match the following day if I beat a top guy,” admitted Thiem, who got clobbered by Djokovic after toppling Nadal in Rome. “So I hope I can improve that. I mean, it’s a joke how tough it is to win a slam. Because obviously now I beat Novak; on Friday (it) is Nadal. In the finals there is another top star. That’s why it’s a slam–because it’s such a tough achievement.”
Nadal, though, has almost made French Open titles look simple. He is a ridiculous 77-2 lifetime at this event and remains the clear favorite to win No. 10 having taken his last seven completed sets 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, and 6-2. Thiem, of course, represents much stiffer competition. At the same time, however, it has to be said that for Thiem, going from Djokovic to Nadal right now is also a massive step up.
The world No. 7 has never been to a Grand Slam final and with Nadal back in peak form, the wait may be one more year.
Pick: Nadal in 4
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WWW?
Rafa in three.
Thiem in 4
same with Ricky .. Rafa in 4 ..
6-3 , 7-6(5) , 4-6 , 6-2
Thiem in 4 and that’s if Rafa plays well.
Other than anon internet fans, is anyone not getting odds actually picking Thiem FTW???
haha
Yeah,agree with Ricky!…Hahaha…How Jim Courier can play tennis and make a prediction like that?I have no idea!!
Up until now I thought that was the REAL Jimbo.
Lol rc!!
No, because the real Jim Courier would have picked Rafa to win!
?
Thiem won’t maybe the mistake of getting the big win and then not backing up. He seems like a player that learns and doesnt make the same mistake twice. He looks like he’s carb loading and could last 20 sets out there. Nadal stint have the physical advantage and age catches up with everyone. Theim is around the breakthrough age for a future world no.1. Its line to see Nadal beat Djokovic 3:0. Massive form line right there. Underestimate at your peril.
Thiem won’t make the mistake of getting the big win and then not backing up. He seems like a player that learns and doesnt make the same mistake twice. He looks like he’s carb loading also and could last 20 sets out there. Nadal won’t have the physical advantage and age catches up with everyone. Theim is around the breakthrough age for a future world no.1. I’d like to see Nadal beat Djokovic 3:0. Massive form line right there. Underestimate at your peril.
Rafa in 3..or if Thiem plays well in 4..
As I said elsewhere, I think this match is actually on Thiem’s racquet. He’s the more aggressive, more powerful player, with the bigger weapons. With his youth he may cover the court better and have more stamina. He just won a match against an all time great whom he had never beaten, and he beat another in Rafa, in their last encounter on clay. So he will be brimming with confidence. Just on form, you’d have to say that he is at least as impressive as Nadal right now, possibly more so because Rafa really hasn’t been tested yet in this tournament.
What’s holding Thiem back, besides Nadal’s reliably great form? Mainly Rafa’s mystique at RG, on PCC. The potential impact of that can’t be underestimated, and if Thiem gets overwhelmed by the moment, he has no chance. But if he’s matured enough to bracket that out, to play the ball not the man (as Federer said he tried to do in the last set of the AO), then I think we’ll see Dominic in his first GS final.
Thiem’s best could conceivably beat Nadal’s best. But Thiem’s best involves playing on top of the baseline and firing winners all over the place. Don’t think he will be willing or able to do that for at least 3 sets against Nadal.
I agree that Thiem will have to play ultra aggressively to win. But that’s what he did in Rome in their last match, and against Novak yesterday; I’m pretty sure that will be his strategy.
Can he pull it off for three sets? I don’t know. I think confidence will have a lot to do with it, which is why I think it’s extremely important for Thiem to win the first set. If he loses it -especially if he blows a lead- I can see Nadal running away with the match. However, if Thiem takes the 1st set, and if he continues with a high level power game into the second set, it’s also possible that Rafa could get discouraged; he’s not immune to it.
For me, the biggest question is simply whether Thiem can bring anything like the level he did against Novak, or whether he will have a big let down.
First of all I owe you an apology for the rude comment I made a few days ago. Guess I was feeling jittery and vented it on you. Rafa doesn’t do let downs – particularly not at RG. I doubt too if Thiem will either. However I agree he might well take the first set but hanging with Rafa over BO5 in a SF this year, of all years, is not going to happen.
No worries, Ed. It’s just tennis!
I don’t think Thiem bringing his level will actually be much of an issue. Imo Thiem’s level against Novak was basically what he brought to his other FO matches, it’s just that Novak’s form was ordinary, and he couldn’t mentally stick with Thiem after losing the first set. I think Thiem will bring pretty much the same game against Nadal, but playing an in-form Rafa vs an out of form Djokovic is a different thing. Thiem has soundly beaten all his opponents so far, but Rafa has crushed his. He has more gears on clay, and he has plenty of energy in the tank.
The scoreline was almost exactly the same as when Nole beat Rafa at RG in 2015 when Rafa was a shadow of himself with confidence shattered. In such a state, Rafa could only stay with Nole for one set.
Now Nole’s confidence is shattered.
#RafaIsBack
His confidence is low alright, he looks like he needs time off from the game, right now he is not properly motivated. In that last set, he was almost Tomic-like in his efforts, practically indifferent as to whether his ROS went in or not. He looked like he wanted the match to be done so that he could get out of the arena. When was the last time he got bageled in a slam? Must’ve been eons ago. Thiem was very good, but not red-hot or unstoppable by any means, which is partly why I see Rafa as a very different test.
Yep, just like Rafa (for the only time in his career) looked like he wanted out in the last set vs Nole in 2015.
Nole’s not Nole right now, nor, more importantly, is he The King of Clay.
I agree with Ricky! Thiem won’t be able to sustain three or four or five sets of hard hitting without faltering, against a Rafa who’s playing well throughout this clay season, not just at RG.
Rafa need not be tested to play his best tennis on clay, because on clay, he has a few levels of play that he could go to but rarely needs to ( of course he has to be fit enough to be able to play at that level and he’s fit right now).
It’s not on Thiem’s racket, I’m sorry to say. Rafa has a more varied game than Thiem’s; and Rafa has a good enough serve to trouble Thiem’s returns and Rafa could rush Thiem too (it’s not only Djoko or Fed or Goffin who could rush Thiem), it all depends on how Rafa wants to play his game. If he chooses to stay at the baseline to rally with Thiem, then Thiem would most probably win the battle.
The PC court is slow, slower than SL court, so Thiem’s shots may not be as fast or as lethal there, even though I understand Thiem hits with high topspin rate plus pace. It will come down to how Rafa neutralizes Thiem’s heavy and powerful shots, which I think Rafa and his team by now would have formulated a game plan.
PS. It’s strange that people still doubt Rafa the king of clay when he’s playing well on clay, and insist that he has to be tested to be able to play well enough to beat tough opponents. Whilst, when it comes to Fed on grass, most people believe that he can beat anyone even without much warm up.
I’m curious, Lucky. If you think that Thiem probably has the edge if Rafa tries to stay at the baseline and rally with him, then how do you see Nadal gaining the advantage? By going for winners earlier? Coming to net? Hitting drop shots?
As I see, Nadal’s main advantage (just on form, not mystique or the mental aspect of the game) has always been his greater consistency and ability to make his opponent hit another ball, especially on clay. Of course his forehand is a major weapon, but overall I think Thiem has greater weapons -if they’re on target. But that’s a big if, because if they’re not on target, then Thiem will play more conservatively and then I think he’s lost. His only path to victory, imo, is a Stan-like high risk style of play. From what’s I’ve seen lately, he’s capable of pulling it off.
Well I just hope that you not comparing “on Thiem’s racquet” with “he’s capable of pulling it off”. Don’t you? Or do you.
The latter is definitely true.
The former goes against what Federer and Djokovic couldn’t do despite looking unbeatable during Rafa’s reign.
I don’t really think any serious tennis fan with a modicum of objectivity would think Rafa was near his best in 2009 and 2015.
In my book, “the match is on Joe’s racquet” means Joe is likely to win if he plays the way he’s capable of playing at the time -basically, Joe’s best will beat his opponent’s best.
That says nothing about how likely Joe is to play near his best, so the match might be on Joe’s racquet and yet his opponent is objectively favoured. (That’s what I would say in this match, with Nadal the objective favourite).
Maybe my usage is idiosyncratic, but that’s what I mean by it.
DON’T count out the Nadal forehand factor. You guys will see tomorrow what I mean
Agree with VR. Rafa’s FH on clay is no.1, just don’t understand how Joe can’t see it!
Of course Rafa could move forward to attack, did you see how he played vs Thiem at Barcelona and Madrid, and how Rafa broke Thiem’s serve to win the sets and the match?
Why should Rafa stay at the baseline to rally all day long with Thiem, when that’s Thiem’s strength? Rafa is a tactical player, he’ll not attack his opppnents’ strength but their weaknesses and that’s what a good tactician or counterpuncher should do.
Thiem definitely has a chance. That is no laughing matter. But he is not going to win if Nadal plays well.
Nadal is 77-0 at the French Open when he plays well. It’s not that complicated.
Nadal had a physical advantage in prior years which was considerable and that’s largely where he derived that 77:0 record. I don’t think Nadal has this advantage this year against a future world no.1 that’s at the prime age for his first grand slam win.
Unlike Murray, Theim is an attacking player thst isn’t tentative o the forehand or any of this ground strokes his breakthrough win should come much sooner.
Djokovic was the defending champion and looked like a broken man out there that had no answer to what Theim was delivering.
Jim, are you comparing the current Djoko with Rafa now?? Are you joking? Djoko looked a broken man out there, still he pushed Thiem to the limit in the first set before relenting.
Rafa is a better all round player now then in the past and he need not be staying at the baseline to hit powerful relentless topspin shots all the time to win his matches. I’ll look forward to him neutralizing Thiem’s power using his strategies and his court craft.
Agree Ricky!!…May i add?Rafa never lost at RG[TO ANYONE] when he is in this form…
Also,when Thiem defeated Novak..he automatically ‘invited’ pressure and attention to himself…when he’s going out on court tomorrow…every eyes and expectations will squarely landing heavily on his shoulder…they’re all eager to see how he’s going to fare against the legend of the game..9 times champion..it’s not going to help when this is the first time that he will play on PC…the monstrosity of the circumstances maybe won’t hit him yet…when he hit the PC tomorrow and realize what will awaits him?..that’s when the things will get exciting….In Rome,he dissolved easily when he met with Novak after beating Rafa convincingly…and that is only a Master’s and played in much smaller venue….Let’s see tomorrow what will happen shall we?
I think Ricky makes a good point about the match when he says it’s not that complicated. I think he got right to the heart of it.
One cannot just dismiss Thiem out of hand. He’s been second best to Rafa in this clay court season. He does have a chance.
However, I believe this match is on Rafa’s racket. If he plays well then he wins the match. His record is unmatched and not a fluke. It is probably something we will not see again.
Nadal in 4. Nadal is too experienced and his form is too good at the moment. I have no doubt Thiem will win RG one day, perhaps next year.
Nadal will beat Murray in the final and La Decima will be a fact.
If Murray makes it to the final (don’t think he will) it’ll be great for Rafa fans, but the match will surely be a rout.
I agree, Rafa in four. Like I said in the Djoko/Thiem thread, Rafa has been in much better form this tournament than Novak has, this will surely be a much sterner test. First set will obviously be key, as it’ll be hard for Thiem to recover mentally if he’s facing an uphill battle against the King of Clay. IF Thiem can somehow get that set, I just don’t see Rafa going away like Novak did, if anything it’s more likely he’ll raise his game. Whatever happens, it should be an exciting match of heavy-hitting, aggressive tennis.
4.55 for Theim is massive overs IMO, should b
Nadal 1.60
Theim 2.20
People who are hoping Thiem will blow Rafa off the court just like he did in Rome, I am sorry to burst your bubble.
Thiem is actually playing even better now BUT, Rafa was farrr from his best level in Rome. O watched the match again and it just affirmed my belief.
Rafa’s forehand was average, his backhand lacked the depth and penetration it has had this season and he waa making Thiem look so much better by giving floater balls. Rafa was also shanking a lot of forehands which due to lack of focus caused by fatigue.
Rafa’s forehand will push Thiem back much more than Djoko could.
I have never seen Rafa’s backhand not firing in the semi/final of RG. Thiem will find it tough to draw short balls often enough.
For Rafa, he MUST serve well as Thiem’s return is vastly improved now. He must not overattack thiem’s backhand as well.
VR, I think the Rafa serve is a big factor. Despite all the talk about how good his winning pct. is off his 2nd serve lately, he has to hit a higher pct. of first serves, because I think Thiem will do a lot more damage to the Nadal 2nd serve than others have done so far.
I agree. Thiem’s forehand is going to hurt Nadal on second serves. Dominic has a monster forehand!
Rafa must also throw in the occasional serve and volley and approach the net.
VR, I bet Rafa will be serving to Thiem’s BH instead of to his FH. Of course it all depends on the quality of Rafa’s serves; if the ball bounces high to Thiem’s BH, Thiem would suffer.
Thiem returns from further behind the baseline to cater for his bigger swing off his FH, so it will be wise for Rafa to move forward to attack Thiem’s returns from way behind the baseline. Throws in some one two punch, using his FHDTL, some aces down the T, and some body serves.
OTOH, Rafa has to handle Thiem’s big serves; since Rafa returns from way behind the baseline, chances of short returns would be high and Thiem would surely move forward to attack the short returns; Rafa has to find a way to overcome that, perhaps returning some big bombs from Thiem by hitting DTL (more difficult to do) instead of going CC all the time, or varying his return positions to keep Thiem guessing. If Rafa could handle Raonic’s big serves on clay, or Sock’s with high topspin, I think he could think of ways to handle Thiem’s.
Lucky, I don’t think Thiem’s going to stay too far back to return tomorrow. This is an area he has improved vastly this year and he can now take returns early if needed. I think he will step in and mix it up.
I agree with the rest.
I saw how Thiem varied his return positions against Djoko, sometimes moving forward and sometimes staying a bit further back. I guess he’s trying to keep Djoko guessing.
I must say Djoko was playing poorly – serving poorly, hitting his ground strokes poorly – and so it’s not difficult for Thiem to return his serves, and, he’s simply being overpowered by Thiem! TBH, Djoko was really serving poorly the whole match, gone were the days when he could serve an ace or two to get himself out of troubles (his Wimbledon match vs Delpo in2013 and vs Fed in 2014/2015 came to mind).
I’m sure Rafa will not serve or play the way Djoko played against
Thiem. In fact, I even think that Rafa has a better serve than Djoko’s now!
IMO Thiem is the one more likely to fall into the trap of overplaying. The majority of his UEs yesterday were due to making that mistake. It’s still a great puzzle to me why Djokovic threw in the towel the way he did after going two sets down.
Not a puzzle at all IMO. He’s lost confidence and belief similar to what happened to Rafa.
As a Rafan, I am very critical of his game when he loses and it becomes obvious that he hits the ball short setting up his opponent.
So I went back and watched Nole and he was doing the same thing setting Thiem up. Just like Rafa during his slump, when Nole went for depth, he became inconsistent and hit many unforced errors.
I will be very surprised if Thiem can follow up his win over Nole.
Thiem’s going to be a very good player and win multiple slams I believe.
But he is not a jedi yet. And he’ll never reach the level of the Big Three IMO. I doubt he will get 10 slams in his career. The Big Three have spoiled us and it will only become painfully obvious when they are gone.
What I saw against Djokovic was jedi-like. When was the last time Djokovic lost 3:0 and got bagelled in a set? Wow.
But you did not see Novak anywhere near his best. That was not the player who has dominated the game for the last four years and won 12 slams. There is no question about that.
Novak didn’t play badly in the 1st set. Not his best, of course, but he played a lot of good tennis and easily could have taken that set. After that he declined, and the 3rd set was a shocker.
Wasn’t Djokovic. Only shell. He’s lost at sea. AWOL. Missing in action. Been through this already.
But to each his own.
My hope is that his mind was elsewhere. And when he gets on a surface at the right place and time. His full attention and confidence will be there. Could happen facing Federer on grass, maybe. I think Nole would really fight for it. But I could be wrong, of course. There’s probably more complexity to his present inability to fully back and engaged in the sport.
The real Djokovic would have won the first set and it would not have even been close. I really think he’s just no longer fit and did not believe that he could do five sets, which is why he gave up the ghost when he lost the first two.
I don’t think it’s the same thing that happened to Rafa. Rafa was afraid on court; not fear of anything, as far as he could tell. Just fear. His doctor and physio believe it was caused by all those injuries. Rafa did not have a problem with motivation; he rarely did. I think that’s Djokovic’s problem now. How bad does he want it? And how much is he willing to give up to get it? I think a break would do him a world of good. Give him time to decompress and sort out his head. Take a lesson from Fed and Rafa.
I do agree its motivation problem for Djoko, and that had led to he not wanting to train hard and hence he’s so unfit, so lack of power, and lack of precision and sharpness. He’s playing like a second tier player now but occasionally could still play brilliantly or grind out a win.
It may take him a while to get back to his usual good or great level even if he finds his motivation. I think he really needs to train hard and works on his game for he won’t get back his precision and sharpness overnight. The perplexing thing is, why did he fire his whole team when all he needs is getting a new coach to replace Becker?
Perhaps, he should take a break from the tour and works on his game, before any further losses dampen his spirit and his confidence even further, or worse still, kills whatever is left of his motivation.
Ramara says AT 4:32 PM: “Rafa was afraid on court; not fear of anything, as far as he could tell. Just fear. His doctor and physio believe it was caused by all those injuries.”
.
U.Toni has explained in his interviews that Rafa lacked confidence during 2015 due to the injuries he suffered in 2014.
U.Toni in his interview with COP, a radio network in Spain, in Dec.2015: “Getting injured in the AO 2014 final was a big blow. When he recovered [therapies helped him temporarily during the year*], the wrist issue happened [July 2014] and then appendicitis [Oct-Nov. 2014] when he was trying to come back. All this caused him a huge stress and lack of confidence in his body [in the 2015 season]. He was going on court [in 2015] without knowing/trusting what his body would do.”
*At the end of 2014, he underwent stem cell theraphy for his back, which helped him more than other treatments he had received during the year.
ed,
That is the question I came away with after watching the match. Especially that third set. To see Novak just give it up like that and not fight if only for his own pride, was just shocking.
Roland-Garros: Friday OOP, Chatrier
12:45pm start
Murray vs Wawrinka
Not before 3:30pm
Nadal vs Thiem
https://twitter.com/rolandgarros/status/872760258913079296
And don’t forget this is the first time ever Thiem’s going to play on PC! The dimensions are different and so is Rafa’s presence.
The weather forecast looks good too. All signs point to a Nadal win in my opinion. I would be surprised if he loses.
I see Rafa winning in straight sets with at least 1 tie-breaker.
Rafa could lose as many games as he has lost in the first 5 matches. Still, expecting him to win. Theim certainly a future champ, maybe multiple RG winner.