French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

Rafael Nadal has been perfect en route to the French Open semifinals.

The only reason why he is not perfect during this entire clay-court swing is because of the man who will oppose him on the other side of the net on Friday.

Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers and for the seventh time on clay when they collide again in the Roland Garros semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-2 in favor of the Spaniard, who has won two of their three encounters in 2017–all of which have come this spring. Nadal triumphed in straight sets during finals in Barcelona and Madrid before Thiem got revenge with a 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Rome quarterfinals.

That is Nadal’s lone blemish on the red stuff this season, as he lifted trophies in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid to go along with wins this fortnight over Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta–the latter via second-set retirement on Wednesday. The nine-time French Open champion has not surrendered a set and has not even been pushed past 6-4 in any set. He has lost a grand total of 22 games in five matches.

“I am in semifinals; that’s all,” Nadal said after getting the virtual free pass from Carreno Busta. “I am in semifinals and with a very positive feelings. I played well all the matches here. Until 5-2 (when Carreno Busta got hurt), I think I was playing well today. So positive feelings and playing well.”

Thiem has been the undisputed second best player on clay this year, with a 22-4 record on the surface and a title in Rio de Janeiro. The Austrian avenged a blowout loss to Novak Djokovic in Rome by upsetting the world No. 2 and defending champion 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarterfinals. Thiem preceded that result by rolling over Bernard Tomic, Simone Bolelli, Steve Johnson, and Horacio Zeballos. Like Nadal, the 23-year-old is perfect in total sets.

“So far I have always played way worse match the following day if I beat a top guy,” admitted Thiem, who got clobbered by Djokovic after toppling Nadal in Rome. “So I hope I can improve that. I mean, it’s a joke how tough it is to win a slam. Because obviously now I beat Novak; on Friday (it) is Nadal. In the finals there is another top star. That’s why it’s a slam–because it’s such a tough achievement.”

Nadal, though, has almost made French Open titles look simple. He is a ridiculous 77-2 lifetime at this event and remains the clear favorite to win No. 10 having taken his last seven completed sets 6-0, 6-1, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, and 6-2. Thiem, of course, represents much stiffer competition. At the same time, however, it has to be said that for Thiem, going from Djokovic to Nadal right now is also a massive step up.

The world No. 7 has never been to a Grand Slam final and with Nadal back in peak form, the wait may be one more year.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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33 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  1. One thing to have the ability to generate topspin but a totally different thing to be able to use it! Rafa is the master of both.

  2. Them just overhits too many forehand rally balls, let alone potential winners. Not sure what his strategy is today.

  3. TOLD YOU, he is not going to get floaters today to punish!! He is getting heavier, deeper shots and it is NOT possible to play this type of tennis then. He is using the same ‘tactics’ he did in Rome but obviously Rafa is controlling the match more than he could in Rome. Honestly, so far this is playing out close to what I had thought.

    Btw, Rafa is still winning 71% of second serves. This is UNBELIEVABLE how consistent he has been defending his second serve this RG.

    • Yeah, I noticed Thiem is not getting up to a few rare short balls – and when he gets a chance he does the usual, over hit/can’t capitalize. There aren’t many chances but there have been some. Bam Bam must have a broken spirit at this point.

    • don’t worry vmk… Rafa will respond if Thiem gets ‘hot’.

      Rafa will win his 10th RG without losing a set. Yes, that’s my prediction..

  4. I have NEVER heard any commentator talk about how much more aggressive Nadal’s backhand counterpunching gets at RG as compared to tournaments like Rome (esp.when he loses there )!! I find it strange. It is such an important factor.

  5. Rafa is not playing close to his best because of underplay. At least he gets to spend 2 hours on the court and he should be ready for warm Sunday . He should be lot more in touch for Sunday

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