French Open SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Wawrinka

Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will be facing each other for the 18th time in their careers and for the second straight year in the French Open semifinals when they meet again on Friday.

Murray is leading the head-to-head series 10-7 after beating Wawrinka twice in 2016, including at Roland Garros via a 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 decision. The top-ranked Scot also cruised 6-4, 6-2 at the World Tour Finals en route to the title there and the year-end No. 1 ranking.

This season has been a considerably different story for Murray, but he remains comfortably atop the rankings thanks in part to Novak Djokovic’s slump. Although the three-time Grand Slam champion is a mediocre 21-7 in 2017, he is picking up the pace this fortnight. Murray booked a spot in the semis for the fifth time in his last six appearances with wins over Andrey Kuznetsov, Martin Klizan, Juan Martin Del Potro, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori.

“As you get through the matches, you gain in confidence,” the No. 1 seed explained after beating Nishikori. “I didn’t feel like I played great tennis today. It’s a huge step in the right direction for me. Anyone can win matches when they are playing well; it’s winning when you’re not playing your best (that) is more impressive. So I’m happy about that.”

“I think he’s struggling a little bit since the beginning of the year,” Wawrinka said of Murray, “but he’s in the semifinal. So a champion like him, when they find a way to win matches, he’s playing better and better. So I expect him to play his best tennis…. It’s going to be interesting match, for sure. Last year I was playing really well. I was confident. He was playing better than me I remember on that court. In the semifinal, he was really aggressive in his game. He was pushing me all the time, so (it) was tough for me to find any solution last year.

“But again, it’s a different year.”

Wawrinka has what Murray still lacks–a Coupe des Mousquetaires. The third-ranked Swiss triumphed at this tournament in 2015 and made a return trip to the semis last spring before falling to Murray. Wawrinka has not been at his absolute best in 2017, but he is heating up at just the right time. His nine-match winning streak includes a title in Geneva and victories this fortnight over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic. Like Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem on the other side of the draw, Wawrinka has not dropped a single set.

It is no surprise that Murray got away with rather pedestrian performances against Nishikori and in his first two matches. That will not cut it against Wawrinka, who always plays better in majors than he does at other events and is 17-1 in his last 18 matches at Roland Garros.

Pick: Wawrinka in 4

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41 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Wawrinka

  1. Forgot to mention AND win the match. Although that means the prospect of my No.1 favourite against my No.2 favourite in the final.

    • Mira, this may go five sets and Rafa may have his match spread over two days; that’s why I wasn’t cheering for Murray to win the third set, I was cheering for Stan when he was leading 3-1. I can’t stand Murray’s matches, they always went on like forever!

      • Hahaha..I understand Lucky!..but,what if i cheer for Stan and he win?…We don’t want his dangerous BH anywhere near our Rafa right?

        • Mira, Stan’s SHBH won’t be lethal vs Rafa’s lefty topspin FH. Murray playing like this is more dangerous, and he’ll drag you into a war of attrition, and that’s why deep down, I don’t wish to see Murray in the final.

  2. Wawa is not having his best day out there, but it has a lot to do with Andy’s defensive game. As others have said, it’s really frustrating Stan. This match actually reminds me a bit of the Wawa v Monfils match, where Monfils was able to stifle Stan repeatedly by retrieving well and tracking down just about anything. The problem was, Monfils was not nearly as good at finishing off points, especially the big ones. He probably should’ve had at least one set in that match, but went home empty-handed, despite troubling Stan on serve for like 2/3 of the match.

    • Good observation, Duke. I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many overheads returned. Murray was a defensive beast in this match, and it definitely frustrated Stan. OTOH, I don’t think he was hitting with as much conviction as he should have on some of those overheads/short balls.

    • Maybe, but Murray’s usually pretty average in finals, and this would probably be against Nadal on clay. In the somewhat less likely event of Thiem/Murray, yeah that could be quite interesting.

  3. Stan looks spent physically; Murray just grinding Stan down to get the win. If this goes five sets, it’ll favor Murray the fitter of the two.

  4. Stan is so not sharp, not alert and he’s losing those cat and mouse points to Murray. Murray has better court craft than Stan, no wonder he’s doing better in his career than Stan even though Stan has bigger weapons.

  5. Stupid organizers for arranging the match so late!Why couldn’t they start this match a little earlier??Say at 11 or 12?What if Rafa’s match can’t be finish today??Urgh!!

      • If there’s a fifth set and, knowing Murray, and there’s no TB in the fifth set, the match will go on forever!

      • Of course rc!..and this match goes to 5th sets…and Rafa maybe will go on court at 6:30/7?…and his match maybe will drag to 3 hours or so?And certainly at that time the official will postpone the match right?Like what happened to Sascha’s?And cold condition also not favour Rafa…

    • Even if this goes to five and the last set takes 1hr, there will still probably be a good 3 1/2 hrs for Rafa’s match to be played, and those two guys will be playing shorter, aggressive tennis I think.

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