French Open SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Wawrinka

Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will be facing each other for the 18th time in their careers and for the second straight year in the French Open semifinals when they meet again on Friday.

Murray is leading the head-to-head series 10-7 after beating Wawrinka twice in 2016, including at Roland Garros via a 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 decision. The top-ranked Scot also cruised 6-4, 6-2 at the World Tour Finals en route to the title there and the year-end No. 1 ranking.

This season has been a considerably different story for Murray, but he remains comfortably atop the rankings thanks in part to Novak Djokovic’s slump. Although the three-time Grand Slam champion is a mediocre 21-7 in 2017, he is picking up the pace this fortnight. Murray booked a spot in the semis for the fifth time in his last six appearances with wins over Andrey Kuznetsov, Martin Klizan, Juan Martin Del Potro, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori.

“As you get through the matches, you gain in confidence,” the No. 1 seed explained after beating Nishikori. “I didn’t feel like I played great tennis today. It’s a huge step in the right direction for me. Anyone can win matches when they are playing well; it’s winning when you’re not playing your best (that) is more impressive. So I’m happy about that.”

“I think he’s struggling a little bit since the beginning of the year,” Wawrinka said of Murray, “but he’s in the semifinal. So a champion like him, when they find a way to win matches, he’s playing better and better. So I expect him to play his best tennis…. It’s going to be interesting match, for sure. Last year I was playing really well. I was confident. He was playing better than me I remember on that court. In the semifinal, he was really aggressive in his game. He was pushing me all the time, so (it) was tough for me to find any solution last year.

“But again, it’s a different year.”

Wawrinka has what Murray still lacks–a Coupe des Mousquetaires. The third-ranked Swiss triumphed at this tournament in 2015 and made a return trip to the semis last spring before falling to Murray. Wawrinka has not been at his absolute best in 2017, but he is heating up at just the right time. His nine-match winning streak includes a title in Geneva and victories this fortnight over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic. Like Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem on the other side of the draw, Wawrinka has not dropped a single set.

It is no surprise that Murray got away with rather pedestrian performances against Nishikori and in his first two matches. That will not cut it against Wawrinka, who always plays better in majors than he does at other events and is 17-1 in his last 18 matches at Roland Garros.

Pick: Wawrinka in 4

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36 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Wawrinka

  1. What a TB! That TB itself was a microcosm of set 1 with the momentum swinging one way and the other and a mix of winners and UFEs

  2. How many fuckin times is Wawrinka gonna miss one of Murray’s godforsaken lobs. That 5-3 game made me want to vomit. Stan hit like 25 unforced errors and still should’ve won the set. Honestly Stan blew that. He’s either losing or winning points. I think eventually Murray’s defensive armor will crack and Stanimal will find his range and start unleashing more winners.

      • It’s not his serve it’s his fantastic tendency to just fuck off on random shots and miss balls thirty feet out or in the net. Sorry I just don’t want to see Rafa beating Murray easy in the final I at least want a good final and no offense to Murray but right now I don’t see Murray even testing Rafa in a French Open final. That would be the shock of the century for me if Murray won this then won against Rafa in the final. I’d be genuinely blown away.

  3. Andy’s defensive skills are simply amazing! If Murray continues serving well Wawa will be sent packing sooner than later…

  4. Wawrinka just needs to play his measured clay court game and he wins. If he gets sucked into Murray’s tactics and starts rushing abs making poor errors on critical points, he will lose. Simple as that

  5. Murray’s tactical genius defeating Wawrinka. Even though I enjoy stan’s brand of tennis but it is always a joy to see tactical play defeating raw power. Stan has more to his game than raw power but it is predominantly dependant on raw power .

    Murray is in Stan’s head at the moment I believe.

    • VR, while I enjoy tactical play, I feel Murray is too defensive for my liking; I still prefer Rafa’s with more offensive fire power, even though I may be biased.

      I prefer Rafa’s and Fed’s game over all others’ TBH. The two of them are just so good! Djoko when in ‘god’ mode was a pleasure to watch – AO 2016 SF and F for egs; if not he may fall into Murray’s category when he’s not playing well and turns defensive.

      I like Davydenko’s game too, after Fedal’s. Goffin and Kei play a bit like him but still no where near imo.

  6. Murray wrote a column for BBC yesterday and he seemed confident heading into this match. He also expressed respect for Stan but there was one interesting bit.

    He said that stan played really well at last year’s USO to win and he was really good in his FO 2015 run as well and he respects that. NOTE that he did not mention the AO 2014 final… I was glad to read because some people have totally dismissed how rafa was barely playing and say stan was too good in that final. So, it was good to read.

  7. How tough are these top players. They have written each of the big 4 off at different stages and they come back with a vengeance. It is amazing how Murray has managed to come back at the least favorite of his slams especially after the sort of year he has had. He could again be near his best on the grass if he keeps this up. Murray seems pumped up for this. No self berating!

    • I am happy about Murray. People were mocking him and the guy was in shambles. I was kind of feeling bad for him…. I am happy he is back playing well

  8. Shirley that 5th game of the second set is as good as GSM Murray! Will break Stan nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww…….

  9. Andy’s or should I say Ivan’s strategy works well against this Wawa! Andy needs to be patient and Wawa will self destruct..unless Wawa decided to shorten points and refused to get sucked into Murray’s marathon dance on the court…

  10. Stan starts the third set hitting very well and very aggressive; I think Murray will have troubles countering that.

  11. Stan is more locked in now. A lot more muted and focused. I almost feel like he was sort of going for everything in set one and being way too overconfident. Now he has realized he just has to play his normal clay court bully ball game and stay solid with his game plan.

    • I see that Murray won the first set and Stan won the second. But now it looks like Stan has turned it up a notch to go up 3-0.

      At least it’s going to four sets. Murray needs to get it together.

      • Yes the pressure will be on Stan in the 4th set. Andy’s chance to sneak out a win in the 4th…then blitz Stan in the 5th, maybe.

  12. Yeah, Wawa being more agressive at this point, going to the net is doing a lot of damage to Andy’s long points strategy… and he is also assisted by numerous Andy’s UEs…this combination is a death sentence for Murray…

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