French Open SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Wawrinka

Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will be facing each other for the 18th time in their careers and for the second straight year in the French Open semifinals when they meet again on Friday.

Murray is leading the head-to-head series 10-7 after beating Wawrinka twice in 2016, including at Roland Garros via a 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 decision. The top-ranked Scot also cruised 6-4, 6-2 at the World Tour Finals en route to the title there and the year-end No. 1 ranking.

This season has been a considerably different story for Murray, but he remains comfortably atop the rankings thanks in part to Novak Djokovic’s slump. Although the three-time Grand Slam champion is a mediocre 21-7 in 2017, he is picking up the pace this fortnight. Murray booked a spot in the semis for the fifth time in his last six appearances with wins over Andrey Kuznetsov, Martin Klizan, Juan Martin Del Potro, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori.

“As you get through the matches, you gain in confidence,” the No. 1 seed explained after beating Nishikori. “I didn’t feel like I played great tennis today. It’s a huge step in the right direction for me. Anyone can win matches when they are playing well; it’s winning when you’re not playing your best (that) is more impressive. So I’m happy about that.”

“I think he’s struggling a little bit since the beginning of the year,” Wawrinka said of Murray, “but he’s in the semifinal. So a champion like him, when they find a way to win matches, he’s playing better and better. So I expect him to play his best tennis…. It’s going to be interesting match, for sure. Last year I was playing really well. I was confident. He was playing better than me I remember on that court. In the semifinal, he was really aggressive in his game. He was pushing me all the time, so (it) was tough for me to find any solution last year.

“But again, it’s a different year.”

Wawrinka has what Murray still lacks–a Coupe des Mousquetaires. The third-ranked Swiss triumphed at this tournament in 2015 and made a return trip to the semis last spring before falling to Murray. Wawrinka has not been at his absolute best in 2017, but he is heating up at just the right time. His nine-match winning streak includes a title in Geneva and victories this fortnight over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic. Like Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem on the other side of the draw, Wawrinka has not dropped a single set.

It is no surprise that Murray got away with rather pedestrian performances against Nishikori and in his first two matches. That will not cut it against Wawrinka, who always plays better in majors than he does at other events and is 17-1 in his last 18 matches at Roland Garros.

Pick: Wawrinka in 4

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23 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Murray vs. Wawrinka

  1. Murray is finding his game again. I’m hoping he can find his level on clay from last year where he was second only to Djokovic on clay going 18-3 with losses to only Nole (2) and Rafa, winning Rome and making FO final along the way.

    (and beating CryBaby in four at RG along the way I might add.)

  2. Andy over Stan in 5. Andy has had such bad luck this year, dang it. And though he’s not playing his best, I think he’ll seize the moment and leave it all out there to post his best performance so far in 2017 – if he’s feeling good, he’ll fight like hell. Go Andy!

  3. Andy has done well to get this far. But he will need to play better than he did against Nishi. He has made it further than I thought he would. I said that I would not pick him anymore until he showed me something. It’s been ugly at times, but he’s in the semis.

    Stan is playing better now. He seems to be the obvious pick. But I am thinking that If Murray can raise his level of play, then he could have a shot at winning this match. I do think he will go out there and give it his best. Stan is tough when he gets going.

  4. @Benny B
    ^^Murray in 3 is no doubt the least likely result in my mind.^^
    That is exactly why I’m expecting Andy to prevail in 5 roller coaster sets. He will summon up that cussed Scottish stubbornness that carried him to No.1.

  5. Stan struggling to find the range early on, but he’s not missing by much and still basically controlling play. The FH is an absolute monster. Murray serving and playing well and hanging in there. Some lovely drop shots to keep Stan guessing.

  6. Incredible defence by Murray to break back. Stan has to be careful not to get frustrated and go for too much. He has to get his 1st serve % up over 50%.

  7. Wawrinka is the tentative one. Not playing relaxed like he did 2 years ago. Murray’s defense and tenacity makes him uncomfortable.

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