French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic will battle an inspired Stefanos Tsitsipas on Friday, with a spot in the French Open final the reward for the winner.

Until his quarterfinal match on Wednesday against Pablo Carreno Busta, top seed Novak Djokovic looked like he might just make it through the 2020 season without losing…at least not at the hands of another player. He had been fierce throughout the fortnight in Paris and he obviously went into it as the prohibitive favorite over the Spaniard.

But then a neck injury in the warmup left the Serb in trouble in the opening set, and he was seen by the trainer. Carreno Busta snagged the first set but ended up losing in four.

After the match, Djokovic said, “Well, I definitely didn’t feel great coming into the court today…. Few things happened in the warmup. I had to deal with those physical issues coming onto the court.”

The extent of the injury and whether it will affect his semifinal against Stefanos Tsitsipas remains to be seen. But injury or not, Tsitsipas is no joke of an opponent. The Greek, into his first French Open semifinal, has played himself into impressive form in Paris.

Tsitsipas came into Paris directly off a run to the final in Hamburg, where he was just edged out by Andrey Rublev. The world No. 6 had a tough opener against Jaume Munar, but he has been nearly flawless since, downing each opponent–including Rublev and No. 18 seed Grigor Dimitrov–in straight sets.

Djokovic and Tsitsipas are not strangers. This will be their sixth meeting in just over two years. Djokovic has a 3-2 winning record, a slim margin that gives no hint that Tsitsipas is particularly intimidated by the world No. 1.

If Djokovic is at all hampered by the neck/shoulder injury he sustained on Wednesday, we may well see an upset in the top half of the draw. In fact, even if Djokovic is 100 percent Tsitsipas is capable of the upset. Still, with the way Djokovic has played all year, it’s hard to pick against him.

Cheryl pick: Djokovic in 5

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 5

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116 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Tsitsi in five is my gut feeling , its as if Djoko is now the bad boy and karma will come back to bite him
    But I still cant pick against Djoko if he’s fit , him in five.

  2. Tsitsipas was very impressive against Rublev and he would’ve gained a lot of confidence from that straight sets victory.

    This match will be close.

  3. Tsitsipas in four. He has the tools to beat this Djoko (whom I think is not at his best). Tsitsipas is playing like he’s at WTF 2019, I think only a Rafa in the final can stop him. Of course if Djoko suddenly comes alive and plays like he’s in 2015/2016 then it’ll be a different story.

  4. Novak in 4 sets. Tsitsipas backhand and weaker return of serve will be exploited by Djokovic. Stefanos is a much more streaky player who won’t frustrate Djokovic like the steady PCB and Agut.

    Maybe Tsitsipas could pull it off on a faster court or if Djokovic is injured. Otherwise Djokovic defends aggressively better than any other player in the history of the game.

    The only person who could stop Novak is maybe Nadal. But in these conditions even Nadal won’t start out as the favorite against Djokovic.

    • It’s windy conditions out there, that’s why Djoko struggled to put away PCB.

      PCB wasn’t playing all that well, going CC all the time, didn’t even move well, and yet Djoko struggled against him. Imagine a Schwarzman playing against this Djoko, he would have won the match, but not PCB.

  5. Djokovic largely relies on his defense and that his opponent will eventually choke and miss. Tsitsipas doesn’t choke and plays with a lot of margin for error so this is a very tough match for Djokovic on Tsitsipas’s favorite surface.

    • “Tsitsipas doesn’t choke” did you watch the USO? or the Hamburg final? he definitely chokes. and Djokovic will come in hyper-focused. Djokovic in 3 or 4.

    • It’s Tsitsipas’s best surface – reached Barcelona and Madrid finals. His game is suitable for all surfaces but clay is great for his game, because he plays a thinking game.

      In quicker surfaces, he may lose to players who are very aggressive, like Shapo for example. Tsitsipas may be an attacking player but he’s not that aggressive unlike Shapo, or those big servers plus hard hitters (Rublev comes to mind).

        • Fed may be his idol, but Tsitsipas doesn’t play exactly like Fed. His stroke production may be similar but his mindset is different.

          He plays a bit further from the baseline, doesn’t play first strike tennis often, prefers to work his way into the point, hence his game suits the clay surface. However he can serve well so he’s still good on quicker surfaces. To me, he’s a hybrid of Fed and Rafa, not a counterpuncher but also not too aggressive an attacking player.

          Imo, Shapo is the one in the mould of Fed, prefers first strike tennis, very aggressive but he has to learn not to go for broke all the time, Youzhny is helping him in that area.

  6. It would be interesting to see if Djokovic turns up with the plaster on his neck today as PCB actually accused him of gamesmanship after the match. If Djoker is not 100% fit then I’d say 100% Tsitsipas; if not, I’m not sure who will prevail but Tsitsipas is not starstruck like many young players and believes he can beat them all so he won’t be bothered about who is on the other side of the net. Tsits wouldn’t want to miss his chance of making a GS final as he may not have another opportunity waiting round the corner so he’ll give it his all.

  7. Actually Tsitsipas favourite surface is clay and he has grown up as player on this surface. Good show of his ability on clay was last year when he beat Rafa on Madrid masters SF (and then lost to Djokovic as was exhausted from Rafa). This time he is fresher than Djokovic and fitness can be a factor only for Djokovic.. Stefanos in 4.

  8. Btw what’s this MTO thing that PCB was complaining about?

    PCB himself wasn’t playing well so whether Djoko was injured or not it didn’t make any difference imo. PCB was just one dimensional, no DTL shots, so predictable that a Djoko not playing well could still beat him by just staying in the point long enough for PCB to make an error.

    A Schwarzman for example, who could attack from both wings and all directions, CC or DTL, would offer more challenges to Djoko and might even win the match.

    • NOVAK ADDRESSES INJURY CONCERNS; PCB ASKED TO WEIGH IN

      In the first set of his eventual quarterfinal win over Pablo Carreno Busta, Novak Djokovic had two visible health questions: his neck, taped ahead of his on-court arrival, and his left arm, which appeared to flare up after play began. He and Carreno Busta spoke about it in their post-match virtual press conferences.

      Djokovic: “[A] few things happened in the warmup. I had to deal with those physical issues coming onto the court. As the match went on, I felt better, didn’t feel as much pain. I don’t want to take away anything from his good performance. Especially for set and a half he was the better player, dictating the play. I was very neutral.”

      “I had some neck issues and some shoulder issues. I’ll just say that. I mean, I don’t want to get really too much into it. Obviously I’m still in the tournament, so I don’t want to reveal too much. I’m feeling okay. I think, as I said, as the match progressed, I warmed up by body, and the pain kind of faded away. It allowed me to play better and better and feel better.”

      Carreno Busta: “Probably the last years he’s always doing this when he has problems on court. I don’t know, maybe it’s the pressure or something that he needs to do it. But, I mean, he continues playing normal, no? I don’t know if he’s [in] pain really or [is] mental. Ask him.”

      “At the beginning of the match I think that I play good. I take advantage of the opportunities returning. Then in the beginning of the second set, I have it again but didn’t take advantage. That was when he start[ed] to play better.”

      https://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2020/10/roland-garros-notebook-passport-day-11-djokovic-pcb-kenin-collins-tsitsipas-rublev-kvitova-siegemund/91281/

    • I agree that PCB didn’t play well because he had many chances to go up 2 sets to love but failed to take them. I was, however, impressed with the way he played against Altmaier in the QF so I honestly believed he could beat Djokovic. PCB just seemed to go into his shell, defending against Djokovic, which is manna from heaven for Djokovic, but against Altmaier he was more proactive.

      Altmaier is another up and coming young player to watch.

  9. Im surprised by Ricky’s bold prediction here! However, I was quite impressed with Tsisti;s performance against Rublev! He was aggressive and sharp, going for the angles, overflowing with confidence. He does stand a chancre for sure. But the thing with Novak is u can’t bet against him esp at a GS! Theim dud beat him last year, not many expected it. So, will the final elude him again in 2020?!!

    Anyway, just hoping for a good match!

    • Its already over i’m afraid! If you think Rafa was nervous, just watch Tsisipas.

      By the way, good to c Novak wearing no tape today!

  10. And ppl complain y r the top guys winning all the slams? This is y!!

    Stephanos played so so so much better against Rublev! At least with Diego its probably wear and tear, but what is Tsistipas’ excuse? Steups!!!

    • Tsitsipas is playing really well out there.. djoko like rafa is doing just enough to defend the barrage till the opponents level goes down

  11. It could’ve been 4-4 should Tsitsipas break serve in Djoko’s first service game, Tsitsipas takes a set to warm up, doesn’t do himself any favour.

  12. Tsitsipas could only beat Djoko when Djoko is subpar, not when he’s game on at 100%. Tsitsipas’s court craft is not good enough.

  13. Tsitsipas relies too much on his BH when he has a very good FH. He staying at the baseline is not going to help him with those drop shots coming from Djoko.

  14. Nole looking ruthless and clutch. But he has faced quite a few break points which another opponent could well have capitalised on.

    • Amy..I don’t think rafa wins against this novak ..rafa losing a french final to novak to deny him his 20th n give novak career slam 2 will be painful (:-

      • Sanju I think Rafa can win. If he plays like he did for the first 2 sets against Diego he can do it. Because if he is playing at that level he can raise his game still further.
        But I am dumbstruck by how he went walkabout mentally in the third set. He was leaking errors at the net. This normally never happens. Unless there is a physical explanation it can only be nerves and his mad Diego complex which is very concerning.
        Which Rafa will turn up on Sunday?! God knows.

        • Did rafa say anything in presser ? He went walkabout in uso 19 final too in fourth suddenly making shocking errors .I saw highlights of today..those errors at net n with fh were glaring ..did not seem to be injury ..just a lapse

          • I haven’t read his presser. I am pretty sure it was mental. It was very odd because he was in total control and hitting his forehand well.
            He made errors at net early on against Sinner as well. It’s very strange because he is so good at net. He has to be able to win points there to beat Novak.

  15. Tsitsipas has lost all the belief, not made of a champion’s mindset. He must be feeling frustrated, being badly beaten in both his SFs at the slams. He’s just not good enough, time to rethink what’s wrong with his game and also his mindset.

    Djoko seems to have recovered from his whatever injuries, playing like the Djoko of old.

  16. Djoko has to be given a lot of credit too.. he came back from 0-40 twice to break Tsitsi.. also unlike rafa he is rock solid on his serve.. the only way rafa wins on sunday is through his famed grit and even that may not be enough since the other guy is super gritty too

  17. The spectators look quite bored out there, no competition at all! It’s like a beat down, Tsitsipas looks like he is giving up fighting.

  18. Cant believe djokovic was not broken once in the match… for the people looking for signs rafa beat tsitsi handily at ao2019 and we know how the final turned out

  19. Uncanny resemblance to the rafa match in the third set.. only difference is while the commentators there were hoping for the match to go into 4 sets.. here they are saying if tsitsi is just delaying the inevitable

  20. See, why always go CC to Djoko? When Tsitsipas goes DTL, he wins the point! That’s the way to play, don’t be predictable!

    Tsitsipas must move forward, if not inside the court, at least close to the baseline, so that he can get to the drop shots, and slices the ball so that Djoko may mis-hit into the net. If he goes into baseline rallies with Djoko, then he’s not going to have any chances.

  21. Stefanos has had so many bp chances. Rafa is a better returner than Stefanos and has a far superior rate of bp conversion. This fact alone should give Rafa fans hope.
    Not a done deal.that he plays Novak right now. Stefanos is outplaying him right now.

      • He certainly seemed to tighten up, but at least half of that equation was that Diego played a lot better. I never expected it to go past 3 sets though. Rafa wasn’t ever going to lose that match.

        • So you think he can beat Novak Cheryl? Assuming Novak wins. My worry isn’t really about Rafa’s game, it’s about his nerves..

          • I think he CAN beat Djokovic…the problem is that he doesn’t do it very often anymore.

            I guess I would say this. I have a hard time picking against Nadal in Paris. He knows what to do and how to do it and he’s never lost to Djokovic in the final there.

          • Thanks Cheryl. Wise words from you!
            How clutch has Stefanos become suddenly! Didn’t think he could hold Nole off like this.

        • Exactly, I thought the same too, that Rafa would win in three sets, but never expected the third set could turn so complicated.

  22. Tsitsi looks the more gassed of the two though.. good thing is he is serving first in the fourth.. they have already exchanged breaks

  23. I’m really surprised and pleased with how Tsitsi has been playing since Novak’s match point. It’s like a Greek God switched on inside himself :😄

    • LOL! I haven’t been watching, assumed it was long over then took a look. My, my. Expect Djoko to win, he has his little ways, but thanks, Tsitsi, for extending him to 5! Well done!

  24. Tsitsi at least showed that novak is vulnerable… this is what flummoxes me.. he came down like a house when he went a break down to pcb at the uso.. here when there were actually grounds for doing that or at the wimbledon final he was uber calm and is going to cross the line

  25. What’s the point of fighting so hard to push it to the fifth set and then loses so meekly? Tsitsipas can never overcome his five setters blues, losing them so often. Why is his fitness so poor, poorer than a 33 year old!

  26. Rafa especially in the 3rd set did some errors uncharacteristic to him. He invited Schwartz back into the game for a while. The Argentine was spent and totally lacking the spark he had vs Thiem. But he deserves to be given credit for having played a lot of tennis recently.
    At this point it’s a mental game between Djoko vs Rafa. Both have chances.

  27. Well I hope he “doesn’t it” on Sunday😀😀
    The more doesn’t ing he does on Sunday the better as far as I am concerned. 😀

  28. Stephanos was completely gassed at the end! Now they will appreciate more what Rafa continues to accomplish here!

    Good luck Rafa on ure #13!!

  29. Did you all just see Rafa ‘s presser? I found it reassuring. Rafa said he knew he had to raise his game to play Nole but he seemed very positive and composed.
    Surely Moya has lots of ideas having watched what Stefanos did today…Rafa is a better returner than Stefanos but he had better serve well…

  30. Tough match the final. 50/50 I reckon, just depends on how they execute in the day on the critical points.

    Bookies have instilled Nadal as favourite, probably due to his clay record, record at Roland Garros, the fact that he hasn’t dropped a set and the fitness edge.

    I say Nadal wins in 5 (maybe 4) if he had a blinder.

  31. Some of the bookies opened with Djokovic as favorite. Since then there has been a big swing in favor of Nadal. Now 1.65.

  32. I hope Nadal loses but I’m in doubt.

    Nadal is too good on clay and likes this tournament hopefully Nadal loses.

    Novak must be exhausted but he is a true champion after the disqualification in New York he ain’t joking with anyone he is coming for Nadal and all you rafans 😂😂😂.

    Rafans better wear diapers in the finals you will need it 😅

  33. After watching how Djoko messed up in the match with Stefanos, the bookies now are giving Rafa some chances of winning.

    Stefanos or Tsitsipas had plenty of chances with BPs in the first two sets but as usual, he often didn’t play well to take them. He’s slow to start and took time to warm up, that’s the problem with him; it’s only when he’s about to lose in straight sets that he woke up, changed his strategy, going DTL more often than just going CC all the time and that caught Djoko by surprise.

    Had Tsitsipas woken up earlier in set one or two, things might have been different for him (given that he had >10 BP chances in the first two sets. Tsitsipas had himself to blame for losing, Djoko had made enough errors to offer him so many BP chances, so Tsitsipas was obviously not good enough a player to be in a slam final.

  34. Well, I honestly didn’t think this tournament would be played this year, but given that it was going to be, it was hard to bet against this being the final. This is as close to a toss-up as a match can be, imo. On the one hand, it seems insane to bet against Nadal at this tournament. On the other, it is undeniable that Djokovic has had his number lately. Unlike Fed, he has actually beaten Rafa here, even if it was a reduced version of him. I also suspect Novak may have a little extra motivation from missing out at the USO.

    Most likely Novak in a tight five sets, with a very small chance of a much easier victory if Rafa gets nervous/doesn’t show up.

  35. Nadal hasn’t had any real lapses winning all his matches in straight sets and is carrying more weight which suggests he should be solid for the duration of the match.

    I hope he gives Djokovic the spanking he deserves.

    • Yes plenty, and that’s why he offered Tsitsipas 15 BP chances, most of them were during set one and two. Strange thing is Djoko won that two sets; he didn’t offer many BP chances in the third and fourth sets yet he lost both sets.

      While Tsitsipas raised his level in set three and four, Djoko started making more errors and Tsitsipas was hitting and attacking using his DTL shots more often, making Djoko guessing which way Tsitsipas’s shots were coming from.

      In the first two sets, despite all the BPs faced, Djoko was serving well to save them but come the third and fourth sets, Djoko couldn’t sustain his high level so he’s making more errors which Tsitsipas took advantage of. Tsitsipas ran out of steam in the fifth set hence Djoko won the set quite comfortably.

      Djoko made use of the drop shots wisely, catching Tsitsipas so often; time and again, Tsitsipas couldn’t get to the drop shots. Tsitsipas otoh threw in some dumb drop shots of his own but mostly not very successful ones, because he was hitting them CC so often to the side where Djoko was; had he hit the drop shots DTL like the way Djoko did, making Djoko ran a bit more, perhaps he could have more successes.

      • Lucky ..what do you think is final prediction ?

        I desp want rafa to win this ..but I feel the lack of match play ,conditions ,djoko in his head may tilt this towards Djokovic..I hope rafa n moya have seen novak using these droppers a lot n have a counter plan…rafas serve is vulnerable …I fear rafa is not tested enough n has not played that well in both qf n sf

        • I’ve posted something in that Rafa vs Schwarzman thread. My opinion is Rafa is playing better tennis than Djoko here, I think Rafa will win this one, probably in four sets.

          I even think that had Tsitsipas changed his game plan after losing the first set, he might end up winning the match in four sets. Djoko obviously couldn’t handle Tsitsipas’s varieties in set three and four, so if Tsitsipas played that way starting from set two, he would have enough energy to win the three sets to win the match. It took him too long to change things, hence he ran out of energy in the end.

          • Tsitsipas’s coach really has to help him to understand, that you can’t afford to waste time and energy sticking to a game plan that couldn’t work.

            Everyone knows that if you stick with your usual game, you’re not going to beat the TOP two guys, because usually your game is not good enough (that’s why they’re ranked TOP two ahead of everyone else). So, in order to have any chances against the TOP two, you need to move out of your comfort zone, take more risk, willing to attack them at all cost.

            Tsitsipas was so comfortable going CC all the time, even after losing the first set, he still played the same way and expected a different outcome in set two. Those players who beat the TOP two, eg Schwartzman at Rome vs Rafa, or Khachanov at Paris Masters in 2018 vs Djoko, they both went all out to attack, almost relentlessly, and that’s why they won their matches. Had they stick with their usual game, they would have lost.

  36. The extra benefit of the drop shot is it drains the opponent. Maybe a contributor to Tsits going away in the 5th. I expect a very tight final. It’s Nadals home but Djoko will give it every thing and has the recent H2H/mental edge.

  37. Just seeing n hearing opinions from fed fans..90 percent want rafa to win this .they r ok with rafa tying fed as they feel the respect between rafa n fed is enormous ..they feel if novak wins .fed no 1 weeks is surely gone .if not someone can take out novak at ao..n snatch the no 1 back from him

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