French Open quarterfinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Expert picks are back on Tuesday for the French Open quarterfinal clash between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. A three-team panel previews the highly-anticipated action and makes its predictions.

Ricky Dimon: Nadal is coming off a five-set slugfest against Felix Auger-Aliassime. I don’t think that’s the worst thing in the world because it means the Spaniard is battle tested and he also looked good physically throughout that match while also playing at a consistently high level. I actually think it could help him in the early stages against Djokovic. In the long run, though, Djokovic’s full tank should come in handy for what will surely be a physical fight. The Serb wore down Nadal in last year’s quarterfinals and I think he can do the same again. Nighttime conditions won’t help the 13-time champion, either. Nadal is too good in Paris and playing too well right now to get blown out, but pretty much all signs are pointing toward Djokovic. Djokovic in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray: Djokovic and Nadal will meet for the 59th time on Tuesday. It’s absurd, really–absurd that the two GOATs are contemporaries, ridiculous that they have smashed into each other almost 60 times. But perhaps the most unbelievable aspect in the most prolific rivalry of all time is each man’s consistent ability to find their way to the business end of tournaments they enter. It’s not like they bump into each other in the third round. Nope. They have never met prior to the quarterfinals in a “regular” (not Davis Cup or year-end championship) tournament…. Not once…in 59 meetings. It’s just…yeah. I get a bit misty-eyed each time they run into each other. It goes beyond special. It is completely unique to them, a narrative told in intimate detail for 16 years, offering the world a first hand look at wild joy and bitter disappointment, elation and agony, brilliance and baffled frustration. They are warriors locked in a battle of attrition that goes one way, then the other, then back again. And each time they add a chapter to their story I wonder if I’m watching them for the last time. 

Djokovic probably has the edge this time–even though it’s on clay and even though it’s at Roland Garros. Don’t get me wrong; I don’t doubt Nadal’s abilities or his will. I know well enough that he understands how to win in Paris better than any human ever has. But the injuries have been so disruptive, I just don’t think he’s match tough enough to get past Djokovic. He’ll give it everything he has, though; that you can be sure of. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4), 3-6, 7-5.

Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Djokovic will be slightly fresher after making quick work of all four opponents so far, while Nadal had to go the distance in the previous round against Auger-Aliassime. In fact, the Serb has won 22 consecutive sets on clay–having corrected course after falling to Carlos Alcaraz in the Madrid semis and then rolling through the field at the Rome Masters. Nadal arrived in Paris without a clay title this year and in serious pain less than two weeks prior to the start of the French Open. Nonetheless, he has once again found a way to recover and excel on the terre battue to set up this clash. The Mallorcan will need to clean up his break-point conversion significantly from the 6-for-22 performance in the last round. Meanwhile, Djokovic is serving immaculately–hitting just two double-faults in four matches. Both sets of stats are in the past, however, and are rendered meaningless once the court is taken in this highly anticipated quarterfinal. Look for Nadal to win a few more of the bigger points in the match. Nadal in 5: 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-5, 5-7, 6-3.

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WWW: Djokovic vs. Nadal?

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WWW: Zverev vs. Alcaraz?

67 Comments on French Open quarterfinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. Rafa wins, and the crowd here really loves Rafa! I feel happy for him, that they love and support him finally after all these years!

    I hope Rafa can raise his level in the SF, and how I wish Zverev won’t be on fire in the SF, unlike in the QF today. As a Rafa fan, of course I wish for Rafa to do well here without a doubt.

    Vamos Rafa! Take care, get some well deserved rest and then plays well in the SF!

  2. May be cold weather made them play poor with lots of errors. Organizers should move night session few hours earlier.

    • I agree! Absolutely! They are older now and may not be able to produce the quality of tennis. But they are still here and playing! They are still competing for slams.

      But I think the cold weather conditions at night probably did not help. Let’s give them a break. They should schedule the night session earlier for sure.

  3. He did it! I can’t stop crying!

    Ramara said if Novak wins will he gift wrap the title? Well his about Novak gift wrapping the title for Rafa?

    ❤️❤️❤️❤️💝🥇

  4. 2 days should stand him good stead. I thought Rafa played really well. Well done but not surprised. This is RG and one can never feel surprised with the level he brings.

    Only blip in the second set. Reminded me of 2013 match where Rafa had chances in each set and still went to 5.

    I thought this was a statement. Lets see how match with Zverev pans out. I believe it will be a day match.

    • Yes! I was thinking back to the 2013 RG semifinal.I remembered that Rafa had his chance to win it in 4 sets but Novak won the fourth set. So they went to a fifth set and Rafa won it.

      Never underestimate Rafa!

  5. Well done Rafa, but as expected really at RG. Forget all the mind games about the foot and loaded top draw , Rafas last year , night match etc etc .
    I didnt see the fourth set but for a match like this, should really have been a fifth .
    Oh , and on the subject of preferential treatment, it goes for Rafa too, matches on Chatrier.

    • Rafa gets Chatrier because he’s a HUGE draw. Btw, Novak gets it too, except for ONE match per year when the top seeds play on Lenglen. EACH of the top seeds. Unless, of course, there’s a Frenchie in the quarters or later, in which case the Frenchie gets Chatrier. And yes, I’ve seen it happen. Rafa has never complained about that, just says “Lenglen is a good court.” Which it is.

      Where the hell else would you put a match of that magnitude? No, Rafa wasn’t happy about playing at night, never has been. He sucked it up.

      • OK. Ill not say anything about accusations about preferential treatment of Roger or Novak at other Slams- I think we know day, night , roof etc doesnt make that big a difference if the player is just better on the surface.

    • Yes! I can die happy now that I have seen a French crowd cheering for Rafa as though he was their own!

  6. RAFAAAAA!!! Amazing!! All I could bear to watch was the tb from 6-1 up! And that was stressful! (LOL at me. My commies (Courier and Goodall) were grinning ear to ear after that match!)

  7. It’s almost as if Rafa knew he couldn’t lose. I was hoping Djokovic would win the 4th set on his serve so that Rafa could start the 5th set on his serve to get scoreboard advantage but Rafa had other ideas. He didn’t want a 5th set and he did it in 4.

    Vamos!

    • I said the same thing Nadline bcoz I was so sure he’d lose that set!! But like u said he had other ideas! I’m so happy this QF is over and now I can relax a bit going forth bcoz even if Rafa doesn’t win the slam at least he didn’t get beaten by Novak!!! Vamos!! Now can’t wait to hear what the Novak fans have to say now! The silence might be pretty loud!!!

      @Ramara, me too! A friend from the US sent me a WhatsApp message saying “Rafa” and I thought, what, did he win? Then I checked the score and saw Rafa was 6:1 up in tb 😱😱😱!!! That when I watched till the end!! This has been an amazing day!! When will we learn to never count Rafa out!!!

      • Don’t say that Mona please..he can’t lose now after both Carlos and Novak out ..anyone can get upset but still no ,can’t be so close n let it slip

          • They were thrashed by rafas willpower n spirit hehe n I am so happy

            Why just astrologers ,even all bookies that put Novak n carlos as 1 n 2 in betting odds as well as all tennis analysts who predicted Novak.. all have to eat humble pie today.

        • I agree with Sanju. Rafa has to win this!

          Yes, Rafa’s willpower thrashed the astrology predictions! Yes!

          Yes and all the others who said Rafa could not win!

          Humble pie for all of them!

      • I’m telling you what they saying .they are saying this was 40 pc Novak n rafa had to do nothing exceptional, Novak just did not turn up…n of ourselves they saying he still has mental wounds from Australia that has affected his fighting spirit.

  8. I dont care if Rafa wins french or not. This was the match. I so badly wanted him to win..this is for legacy. This is sweet vindication. This is revenge..Rib injury, Foot concerns, no build up for Roland garros, called underdog and 3-4 sets loss prediction, he comes and beats his biggest rival and also the rival who had all the momentum, physicality and form. Might I add, night session against his wish and still protected his turf. Ghosts of 2021 exorcised tonight.
    2021 was an anamoly. it was a perfect storm against Nadal.
    Vamos Champ..never understimate the king on clay and at Roland Garros..
    Honestly dont care what happens after this..But he wont let this one go me thinks..Get the well deserved rest Vamos Rafa..Vamos..Just Vamos

    • Beautifully said! I have nothing to add.

      Bravo to you. I think you spoke for a lot of us. All the crap we had to hear. So-called experts picking Novak and Alcaraz as favorites? The Novak fan trolls were already showing up here as they anticipated a Novak victory. Now they are nowhere to be found!

      Just happy Rafa fans!

  9. Well I’m happy with the result but all the stupid hype about Alcaraz and Novak I can’t even really seem to enjoy this victory!! From now on I will consistently go with my heart when it comes to Rafa!! The commies and these tennis analysts are quite rubbish!! They should ALL be fired!!! Have no regard for them!! Now I wonder how the humble pie tastes and how the egg in the face feels!

    • What do you mean? People are allowed to make predictions that your favourite player will lose. They’re also allowed to be wrong. I think it’s best to savour a win instead of looking back at things like that.

      • Look, a lot of the predictions are biased and based on wishful thinking rather than actual analysis!! Every GS Rafa is seemed to be the underdog and even lately at RG!! Everybody is capable of taking Rafa out somehow but it’s never the same narrative when it comes to Novak or Roger!! They were even giving Alcaraz the nod over Rafa at RG!! It’s nonsensical!!! So yes, someone needs to call them out on it and as a Rafa fan I’m sick of it!!!

        • Hi Monalisa predictions are based on AI and rafa has proved AI and Bookies can go wrong twice. once in Australia and once here again today. i was really scared to watch today’s match. it always gives me anxiety watching rafa vs novak. but lets enjoy his win and wish him good luck for next 2

    • No one can predict a tennis match outcome! But I will say that betting against Rafa at RG is a really bad idea! 🙂

      I can’t believe Rafa won that match! I know his skill and his heart, but I’m getting too well acquainted with his left foot these days and Rafa keeps saying every match at RG could be his last. I was willing to settle for a good match even if he lost it, but Rafa had other ideas. Good for him! 🙂

      • 😂😂🤣🤣🤣 indeed!!! I hope the whole match will be downloaded on YouTube so I can sit up with my popcorn and watch it in its entirety!!

        • Just think.. all bookies ,analysts, astrologers..all were thrashed..both the predictions wrong ..

          Now rafa needs to focus hard .the zverev match will not be easy …he was playing very well today

    • I agree, after all the crap talked . Rafas last match at RG? I never thought for one second, or Djoko to win that match once he lost the first set.

    • Ha ha, at least my predictions are not rubbish! I predicted that Rafa and Zverev would win their respective QFs.

      I have faith in Rafa but is upset by the quality of the match, and also Rafa’s service games. The second set was the worst, he broke serves twice but was broken three times to lose the set! It’s like 2015 MC and Barcelona all over again!

    • Uhmmmmm! Rafa never complained about his foot during this tournament. He only talks about it when it is mentioned so I don’t understand where that is coming from. And besides, y would Novak come into the match expecting Rafa to play like he has foot injury?!! That’s just stupid!!

  10. I always write here Rafa is going to have 23 to 24 slams in his career, while Nole would reach 26 to 27.

    Let’s see from here, I believe Rafa would get his 22nd here.

  11. Vamos Rafa!

    Count the king out at your own peril.

    Also Boo RG and their super late night match schedules. It’s 5 30 AM in India and i have not slept.

    No more very late night matches for Rafa please.

    • Vrael where in India are u..

      I did not watch yet could not sleep at all n was walking all throughout the house …now the adrenaline is high..can’t sleep lol

      • Vreal and Sanju I feel for you! For the past week I’ve had to wake up at about 4:30am to watch the matches in St. Lucia so I’ve been feeling like a zombie most days. Alt least now as the matches start later I can have a good night sleep, especially tonight!

        Anyway good night everyone, see u guys in the semis!! 😄 Vamos!!!!

    • Y do I feel like I just watched a final match? And To think Rafa might have two more matches to go!!!! Sigh!!!

  12. Rafa said after The Match that having his doctor with him is a big help for the foot, that his doc can “do some things”. Ruiz-Cotorro must be part magician!

  13. Hi Sanju

    I am from Lucknow.

    Hi monalisa , yes the timing of the matches can be a bummer,but we rafans are habituated to suffering haha.

    On to semis we go where zverev will be another big challenge.

    Vamos rafa.

    • Sanju,

      Don’t trouble yourself. Let it go for now. Just try to enjoy his wins. Let’s hope that he can win no. 14 and 22nd slam.

      He won’t say anything now. So put it on the back burner and enjoy the moment.

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