Expert picks are back on Tuesday for the French Open quarterfinal clash between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. A three-team panel previews the highly-anticipated action and makes its predictions.
Ricky Dimon: Nadal is coming off a five-set slugfest against Felix Auger-Aliassime. I don’t think that’s the worst thing in the world because it means the Spaniard is battle tested and he also looked good physically throughout that match while also playing at a consistently high level. I actually think it could help him in the early stages against Djokovic. In the long run, though, Djokovic’s full tank should come in handy for what will surely be a physical fight. The Serb wore down Nadal in last year’s quarterfinals and I think he can do the same again. Nighttime conditions won’t help the 13-time champion, either. Nadal is too good in Paris and playing too well right now to get blown out, but pretty much all signs are pointing toward Djokovic. Djokovic in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-3.
Cheryl Murray: Djokovic and Nadal will meet for the 59th time on Tuesday. It’s absurd, really–absurd that the two GOATs are contemporaries, ridiculous that they have smashed into each other almost 60 times. But perhaps the most unbelievable aspect in the most prolific rivalry of all time is each man’s consistent ability to find their way to the business end of tournaments they enter. It’s not like they bump into each other in the third round. Nope. They have never met prior to the quarterfinals in a “regular” (not Davis Cup or year-end championship) tournament…. Not once…in 59 meetings. It’s just…yeah. I get a bit misty-eyed each time they run into each other. It goes beyond special. It is completely unique to them, a narrative told in intimate detail for 16 years, offering the world a first hand look at wild joy and bitter disappointment, elation and agony, brilliance and baffled frustration. They are warriors locked in a battle of attrition that goes one way, then the other, then back again. And each time they add a chapter to their story I wonder if I’m watching them for the last time.
Djokovic probably has the edge this time–even though it’s on clay and even though it’s at Roland Garros. Don’t get me wrong; I don’t doubt Nadal’s abilities or his will. I know well enough that he understands how to win in Paris better than any human ever has. But the injuries have been so disruptive, I just don’t think he’s match tough enough to get past Djokovic. He’ll give it everything he has, though; that you can be sure of. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4), 3-6, 7-5.
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Djokovic will be slightly fresher after making quick work of all four opponents so far, while Nadal had to go the distance in the previous round against Auger-Aliassime. In fact, the Serb has won 22 consecutive sets on clay–having corrected course after falling to Carlos Alcaraz in the Madrid semis and then rolling through the field at the Rome Masters. Nadal arrived in Paris without a clay title this year and in serious pain less than two weeks prior to the start of the French Open. Nonetheless, he has once again found a way to recover and excel on the terre battue to set up this clash. The Mallorcan will need to clean up his break-point conversion significantly from the 6-for-22 performance in the last round. Meanwhile, Djokovic is serving immaculately–hitting just two double-faults in four matches. Both sets of stats are in the past, however, and are rendered meaningless once the court is taken in this highly anticipated quarterfinal. Look for Nadal to win a few more of the bigger points in the match. Nadal in 5: 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-5, 5-7, 6-3.
WWW?
Too much uncertainty around Rafa’s level. If he brings the level he had in set 5 (maybe he ‘unlocked’ that level late in that set?), he takes it in 4 or 5. If his intensity keeps wavering (which is due to lack of match play recently), then Djokovic will take it. Djo isn’t playing the best tennis of his life but has won 22 consecutive sets so must be feeling very good to win the important points. This is what Rafa has been missing of late but well, this is RG and we might as well see another magical performance from him.
I do think Rafa will go for extra on his second serve (first time Novak faces his improved second serve)and take more chances with his backhand DTL. The most pivotal shot remains Rafa’s forehand. It is going to control the tempo of the match most often.
The odds may not be in his favor this time but I agree with my fellow Rafans here, he’s overcome very difficult situations and no reason he can’t overcome this one too.
VAMOS RAFA
I agree with vr that Rafa’sfh is the pivotal shot which will control the match especially as it is the barometer of his confidence. His fh was amazing against Zandschulp and if he hits it as he did then he will win because whatever Novax throws at him he will be able to break out of with the fhdtl.
Last year his fh was very erratic and that to me long before the match with Novax was a clear sign things were not as they should be. I do worry that he was again erratic against FAA. It was one thing to lose the first set. What worries me is that he had started controlling with his fh and had the match under control. Then he lost serve from up 40 love and his confidence just evaporated and he was mistiming everything. What I also don’t like is that at one point he did what he had to do – which is go for the fhdtl and he missed it narrowly and then he just stopped attempting the shot and played very predictable. He always gets into trouble when he plays like that. He had these problems all last RG plus he had all those dfs! Whenever he made a df he would lose serve. I really did start to worry in that fourth set and I understand why vr has been hesitant because if erratic Rafa is back then he will almost certainly lose. And erratic Rafa isn’t really to do with match play. Last year he beat Novak and won Rome but he was so erratic and to me super nervy that I didn’t believe he could win.
This year the only time I have got worried in the way I did all throughout RG last year was in the fourth set. So I hope that’s just a blip. Last year against Novax things partly went wrong because he abandoned the fhdtl. He has to play it even if he misses a few. In the third set he played almost all of it with his bh! Obviously Novak was going to win under those circumstances.
Hoping for some magic from Rafa tonight.
Like vr, am also hoping his second serve goes well.
Actually I disagree with Ricky: “Djokovic’s full tank should come in handy for what will surely be a physical fight. The Serb wore down Nadal in last year’s quarterfinals and I think he can do the same again”. Everybody said the same about this year’s AO final and we all know what happened. Rafa’s fitness should be better now and he only had one tough match, hardly enough to make a difference. Also, Novax wore down his opponent’s leg last year; although I agree that this might happen again. But how about Novak (really) gets injured this time around? He’s no youngster either.
A 2020-like outcome is entirely possible – unless Goran really improved the Serb’s clay court game in the past two years.
I don’t have any idea how match tough Rafa is at this point, but this year only injuries seemed to stop him. Sure, Novax has 22 consecutive sets won, but he lost his only real test before that. I don’t think that anything that happened last week really prepared him for what’s going to happen today.
Of course, it’s tough to pick Rafa against the Serb due to what happened in Rome. Hopefully Novax is equally (or more) confident that Rafa is not match tough and will get tired or even injured at some point.
Djokovic in 4 or 3.
As many have said in the past, my heart says Rafa, but my head says Joker….in 4. ….and Carlos in a hard fought four.
Ditto
Amy reading on Twitter rafa cancelled warm up session ..not sure if he changed the venue itself any details ?
Says who sanju? We had a needless scare before remember?!!
Genny said he is practising for an hour at 4.30.
Supposed to be on court 2.
Please stop with this business of cancelling practices! Enough! Every day we have to read this relentless pessimism and rumors about canceling practices. Can’t we just relax and wait for the match?
God someone is rude to the core.
Nny I will post what I want to, you don’t want to read it ,don’t read and don’t reply but stop telling me what I should post. I wrote that comment to Amy to check if it’s true , you need not have poked in. You are not the moderator of this forum . Over and out.
People don’t even have basic courtesy here with long timers on this forum .
Oh and this whole business of Amazon aka Jeff Bezos controlling the RG scheduling is appalling.
Very few people like the night matches. Very few players want to play them.
It shouldn’t be about ££££.
If the match tonight is very close and Novax dies win it then the difference between the 2 may very well come down to playing at night because of Amazon. That is all wrong.
And I don’t like this business of Novax lobbying for the night match. Haven’t heard of any other player lobbying to play the match at night. If he is so good then he should be able to beat Rafa during the day/ early evening which is when outdoor clay matches have always been played and are meant to be played.
I will admit I’m a bit nervous as I always am when Rafa plays bcoz I want him to win so baldly but recently it’s bcoz of his hibbie jibbies especially in set 3!! But I have to remember if Rafa is at least 80% fit he will give everything he has to win!!! I know we will want him to win the first set but even if he doesn’t he will fight tooth and nail to win the match! He can play, we saw him in his last match. He KNOWS what he has to do to beat Novak and he’ll do it!! Only injury will stop him, NOTHING else!!!! Not at RG!!! And to be clear, the pressure is on Novak to win not on Rafa, and Novak does not always do well under pressure, don’t care what anyone says!!
While Novak fans believe in their man so much Rafa fans have endless and endless reservations, sigh!!
Rafa, just do it!! I BELIEVE!! Vamos, Champ!!
I’m sick n done with this rafa last RG statement being made over n over again by his team. Just stop inviting it on yourself
https://mobile.twitter.com/josemorgado/status/1531624359336476672
N stop crying victim of having to play the night match rafas team ..focus on the match rafa..the schedule won’t change now
I agree Sanju!! Just play the cards ure dealt!! End of!!
And y is uncle Toni talking about Rafa, isn’t his charge out of the tourney?!! He best not be creating any controversies for Rafa here!! Choopz!
I can’t stand him Mona. He is hungry for attention and keeps talking. He is not rafas coach now ,so stop
I haven’t seen Toni’s comments but I too think he should shut up. Moya is Rafa’s coach now.
I haven’t liked how Toni has behaved the last few days
What’s wrong with saying that? This is to tell everyone that he may not be playing here anymore in future, so we have to be prepared for that. Nothing wrong with that, we should not take it for granted that he will be at the FO year after year, it will come a time when he has to say good bye to the FO.
I don’t like Toni Nadal talking about Rafa and his match scheduling. He’s no longer Rafa’s coach and Rafa doesn’t need him to speak on his behalf. Toni should instead concentrate on FAA, not Rafa.
Let Rafa say that about his future at RG! I don’t care to hear it from any one else!! No one knows Rafa”s sentiments better than him!!
Meanwhile, yes, Uncle Toni needs to stop talking!
Coco beat Sloane! Wow! Wasn’t expecting that but thrilled for Gauff.
Didn’t think Trevisan would beat Leylah. Really sorry to see her go out.
I hope Kasatkina wins tomorrow. Iga vs Daria would be awesome…
Yeah, Coco was awesome, played with a sense of purpose while Sloane was like “SloAnne”!!!!
Meanwhile Leyla had foot injury or blister. Sad I wanted her to win!
Uncle Toni needs to put a lid on it. He is not Rafa’s coach. Let Rafa speak for himself. Also stop with the whining about the night match. It is what it is. Rafa has to go out there and bring his best.
I also don’t know that I agree with the lack of match play. Since when does Rafa need a lot if matches? He needs wins. Before the AO how much did Rafa play? An exhibition and Melbourne? And facing a hard court slam? After being off for six months?
To me the issue is the rib injury. I think that messed with his momentum after having the best start in his career. He couldn’t even pick up a racket for weeks. Every time there is an injury it takes a psychological toll. Rafa lost out on playing at two of his best tournaments. He had to start at Madrid. Even he said this was not the ideal place to play his first tournament back.
Then the worst was having the foot flare up at Rome. I think Rafa lost confidence with these two injuries. That is why he is having these ups and downs.
Rafa will give it his best. As he always does. At least he is playing. Things looked pretty bad in Rome with the foot. That is something to be grateful for.
👍NNY!
Toni Nadal has never been good at keeping his mouth shut or being politically correct when provoked. The media is exploiting this to create agitation. I am sure that they are pestering him with questions, it’s not like he’s chasing them to make comments on his nephew.
Now, on Toni speaking “on behalf of Rafa”, that’s absurd. It’s like saying that I’m speaking on behalf of Rafa. Everybody knows that his nephew likes to play in sunny conditions, it’s not like he had Toni complaining about scheduling on his behalf, not to mention talking about plans for the future!
Anyway, let’s give Toni a break, he’s mostly being framed here.
Regarding complains about the night match, I suspect that these are mind games coming from Moya – let’s have everyone else think that Rafa dreads a night match against Djokovic.
Did Rafa say Nole is favourite in 2015 and this year? It means he is mentally conceding already
Yes he did say that but said he will fight and anything can happen. Novak always talks himself up which is more comforting ,rafa will always be cautious ..but here way too many statements were made on night match ,his legacy deserving day match, Novak is fav that surely don’t make us comfy. If you say certain things repeatedly, you start believing it. During AO, he never uttered a flat out underdog statement
True, also this Zverev-Alcarez match is dragging. It if goes to fifth set, other QF match will be further delayed.. Very cold weather at night.. stupid organizers.. wimby story all over.
Not just wimby but last year rg semi same happened. .the first semi dragged unnecessarily
Well Rafa just has to win in three then 🤣😂😂
U mean this is what we have to look forward too those long rallies!! Well no one’s sleeping tonight 🤣😂
Novak not serving well Rafa doing too much cross court, getting too predictable!! Vamos, Rafa!!