French Open quarterfinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Expert picks are back on Tuesday for the French Open quarterfinal clash between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. A three-team panel previews the highly-anticipated action and makes its predictions.

Ricky Dimon: Nadal is coming off a five-set slugfest against Felix Auger-Aliassime. I don’t think that’s the worst thing in the world because it means the Spaniard is battle tested and he also looked good physically throughout that match while also playing at a consistently high level. I actually think it could help him in the early stages against Djokovic. In the long run, though, Djokovic’s full tank should come in handy for what will surely be a physical fight. The Serb wore down Nadal in last year’s quarterfinals and I think he can do the same again. Nighttime conditions won’t help the 13-time champion, either. Nadal is too good in Paris and playing too well right now to get blown out, but pretty much all signs are pointing toward Djokovic. Djokovic in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray: Djokovic and Nadal will meet for the 59th time on Tuesday. It’s absurd, really–absurd that the two GOATs are contemporaries, ridiculous that they have smashed into each other almost 60 times. But perhaps the most unbelievable aspect in the most prolific rivalry of all time is each man’s consistent ability to find their way to the business end of tournaments they enter. It’s not like they bump into each other in the third round. Nope. They have never met prior to the quarterfinals in a “regular” (not Davis Cup or year-end championship) tournament…. Not once…in 59 meetings. It’s just…yeah. I get a bit misty-eyed each time they run into each other. It goes beyond special. It is completely unique to them, a narrative told in intimate detail for 16 years, offering the world a first hand look at wild joy and bitter disappointment, elation and agony, brilliance and baffled frustration. They are warriors locked in a battle of attrition that goes one way, then the other, then back again. And each time they add a chapter to their story I wonder if I’m watching them for the last time. 

Djokovic probably has the edge this time–even though it’s on clay and even though it’s at Roland Garros. Don’t get me wrong; I don’t doubt Nadal’s abilities or his will. I know well enough that he understands how to win in Paris better than any human ever has. But the injuries have been so disruptive, I just don’t think he’s match tough enough to get past Djokovic. He’ll give it everything he has, though; that you can be sure of. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(4), 3-6, 7-5.

Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Djokovic will be slightly fresher after making quick work of all four opponents so far, while Nadal had to go the distance in the previous round against Auger-Aliassime. In fact, the Serb has won 22 consecutive sets on clay–having corrected course after falling to Carlos Alcaraz in the Madrid semis and then rolling through the field at the Rome Masters. Nadal arrived in Paris without a clay title this year and in serious pain less than two weeks prior to the start of the French Open. Nonetheless, he has once again found a way to recover and excel on the terre battue to set up this clash. The Mallorcan will need to clean up his break-point conversion significantly from the 6-for-22 performance in the last round. Meanwhile, Djokovic is serving immaculately–hitting just two double-faults in four matches. Both sets of stats are in the past, however, and are rendered meaningless once the court is taken in this highly anticipated quarterfinal. Look for Nadal to win a few more of the bigger points in the match. Nadal in 5: 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-5, 5-7, 6-3.