French Open QF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Schwartzman

Dominic Thiem is back in the French Open quarterfinals for a fifth consecutive time. But it hasn’t been easy. Or at least it wasn’t on Sunday.

From two sets up, Thiem found himself in a fifth set against little-known French wild card Hugo Gaston before surviving 6-4, 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-3. The U.S. Open champion had previously routed Marin Cilic, Jack Sock, and Jack Sock, but those performances hardly mean anything given his struggles against Gaston. Although it was a high-quality match for the most part, it was not what Thiem needed heading into the business end of the tournament.

“Obviously (the) last weeks were tough,” the world No. 3 admitted. “I’m not running on a full tank anymore; that’s for sure. So I’m trying to do everything to have a great recovery, to have a good day off tomorrow, and then go out on Tuesday as fit as possible. If I’m able to do that, it’s going to be an exciting match.”

That match will come against one of Thiem’s best friends on tour, Diego Schwartzman. The head-to-head series stands at 6-2 in favor of the Austrian, who has won three of their four previous clay-court encounters. They faced each other twice on the slow stuff last season, when Schwartzman prevailed 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) in Buenos Aires before Thiem cruised 6-3, 5-3 in Barcelona.

Schwartzman returned from the coronavirus hiatus with a trio of disappointing results, but he is suddenly playing the best tennis of his career. The 14th-ranked Argentine finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Rome, stunning Rafael Nadal in the process, and is now through to the Roland Garros quarterfinals for the second time. So far this fortnight Schwartzman has taken out Miomir Kecmanovic, Lorenzo Giustino, Norbert Gombos, and Lorenzo Sonego all in straight sets.

“After [Thiem’s match] I was on the bike stretching,” the 28-year-old said. “After that, Domi arrived and we were kidding, ‘Okay, this is the last time we talk each other until Tuesday.’ He was [motioning] like he was going to hit me in my legs.”

It is Thiem’s legs that could be the issue on Tuesday. With the recent Grand Slam champ running on fumes both mentally and physically, and Schwartzman on fire, an upset could be in the cards.

Pick: Schwartzman in 5

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40 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Schwartzman

    • Sorry but none of these guys are beating Rafa!!! Theim esp does not look particularly convincing, and these long grueling rallies will be his own undoing!!

      • From your moth to God’s ears mona! It’s sinner he has to beat today! At this rate he won’t be on court until.10 Paris time.

          • Rafa has played under all conditions in this tourney and it has not hampered his results yet! He’ll adapt! That’s what he does! Have no fear Amy. lol!

          • Rafa has played under all conditions in this tourney and it has not hampered his results yet! He’ll adapt! That’s what he does! Have no fear Amy, lol!

          • Agree with MonaLisa. Neither of these two is beating Rafa, at this rate.

            Amy, Rafa’s match is on at the right time for me to be home. Hope you are here. I must go now tho! Just wanted to see how these two were looking.

    • Did Thiem ever test positive for COVID at some point earlier this year?

      Not seeing Thiem’s sharpness today. Needs to serve this game out with 2 aces right now – if possible.

  1. Rafa has adapted really well. I don’t think he’s losing to Sinner or Thiem/Diego. THe only problem is Djokovic is that match does take place.

      • You never know Sanju. PCB will give him a fight but the only one with a realistic chance is Tsitsipas if he continues to raise his level.

    • Thanks, VR! We need the encouragement.

      Has this tournament been kind of depressing? Maybe it’s just that I don’t like fall RG!! Or covid tennis. I don’t even want to watch it.

  2. I do think Thiem tends to respond well when things get really bad lately, anyway. He’s always pretty much collapsed against Nadal.

    Courier pointing out that Thiem’s hit a lot more sliced backhands today vs his topspin bh. Says it’s to save energy. Odd choice since the slice is mainly effective against tall and/or powerful players and Schwartzman isn’t either of those.

  3. Diego is like a pit bull. He is just getting back everything Thiem throws at him. Nobody can win this game. It’s crucial because if Thiem breaks he can serve for the set.

  4. Thiem is playing awfully today. Hit a heap of bad drop shots (against Diego, of all people) and keeps using that godawful BH slice time and time again.

  5. According to the commentators this match is an amazing level and bewilderingly brilliant!!
    It’s certainly bewildering with the hyperbole..

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