French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

Rafael Nadal is 97-2 lifetime at Roland Garros. Jannik Sinner had never played a match there prior to this fortnight.

It will be mismatch in terms of both resumes and playing styles when Nadal and Sinner collide in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. Given that the Italian has only been on the main tour for a little more than year, it comes as no surprise that this marks their first-ever head-to-head matchup.

Unfortunately for Sinner, this is not exactly the setting at which he would choose to face Nadal. The second-ranked Spaniard’s record at Roland Garros includes 12 titles and a current winning streak of 26 matches in a row. Although Nadal returned from the coronavirus hiatus with a loss to Diego Schwartzman in the Rome quarterfinals, he has picked up the pace in Paris with straight-set routs of Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, Stefano Travaglia, and Sebastian Korda.

“Obviously I’m playing against Rafa here in Roland Garros; it’s not the easiest thing, for sure,” Sinner said. “I mean, I think the record he has here…I think nobody can beat that. He is super confident here. So, you know, it’s going to be a difficult match for sure.

“(The goal is to) always to go on court with the right attitude, trying to play your best tennis–which I have to do if I want to play at the same level as he plays.”

Sinner’s own level has been outstanding, as he has surrendered just one set while producing the best result of his career. The 19-year-old disposed of David Goffin, Benjamin Bonzi, and Federico Coria in straight sets before ousting Alexander Zverev in four on Sunday. Sinner, who upset Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to the Rome third round last month, will break into the top 50 even if he loses on Tuesday.

“He’s improving every single week,” Nadal noted. “So he’s playing better and better and better. It will be a big challenge. It will be the first time playing against him on the tour. I practiced with him a couple of times; he has an amazing potential.”

Sinner has the kind of game that can give the second seed problems. He stands at 6’2”, hits big serves and even bigger forehands, and wields a rock-solid two-hander off the backhand side. And he also moves extremely well for his size. Of course, Korda has a similar style–and he won only four games! Sure, Sinner is much further along than Korda right now; but Nadal’s dominance so far this fortnight does not bode well for the youngster. Expect flashes of brilliance from Sinner, but little sustained success.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11 games or fewer

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31 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

  1. True, but Sinner was playing better in set one. I think after the MTO, he wasn’t playing that well in set two, and Rafa was a bit too relaxed after winning set one, and hence let slipped chances of breaking serves.

  2. I cant believe what Im reading from you guys!! Sinner is getting more props than Rafa but he is the one down 2 sets to love and love 3 down in third set. Are you guys kidding me?! Rafa did only what he needed to to win. He is 34 year old and he has the prospect of playing 2 freaking 5 setters to win the cup! Give him a damn break!! He’s winning!!! What more do you want?

      • Sinner played quite well in the first set and we all know Rafa is a slow starter.

        I think Rafa did pretty well to win in 3!!! Considering how everyone and their dog thought it would go to five or Rafa even losing! Sigh!!

  3. It’s the lack of match play. That gives Rafa confidence, rhythm and timing on his shots and mental toughness.

    Sinner playing Zverev was the first time I’ve seen him. He has potential, but there is still work to do. Rafa played better in the second set and is taking control in the third set. Considering that sone people predicted Rafa winning in four sets, Rafa has done well to do it in three.

    • Rafa needed to be pushed a bit. So far he’s been cruising. Conditions must have been against him? Starting the match after midnight, it’s cold, windy (well, that probably troubled Sinner more – Rafa does not like to play in the “windy” but he’s very good at it. Btw I hope “the windy” is one bit of Spanglish he never corrects.)

  4. Rafa is playing just his second tournament in what? 8 months? He is just not sharp enough, Moya himself said that his best tennis needs to be brought out of him.
    Nadal is not happy about his form, not happy about horrible court conditions, horrible scheduling and so on.

    This is an outdoor clay tournament on paper, but the conditions are far from normal. The ball doesn’t bounce and this is why Sinner got so far in the tournament and this game. This is also why natural clay courters are struggling; the second best (Thiem) is out already. BTW don’t compare Sinner with other Italians as he has a different set of genes and most likely very different background.

    Sinner looks like he doesn’t believe that he can win anymore so hopefully this ordeal is over soon.

    SF against Diego will be a totally different affair. Schwartzman cannot hit anywear near as hard as Sinner but will probably reach even more balls. Hopefully Rafa will enjoy that game much more than this one.

  5. Yeeesssss!!! Show ’em how it’s DONE, Rafa!!

    Phew, soooo glad Rafa got it done in 3 and grats to all of you who predicted that. (I opted for a conservative hopeful 4. So happy to have been wrong!)

  6. I was so nervous at the end of the first set. I couldn’t even post. Rafa pulled it out.

    What I really liked is that Rafa finished strong! He really dominated in the third set. He was feeling it.

    He is going to be in a battle with Diego. He got pushed enough by Sinner to raise his level of play. Rafa has two days off abd hopefully he will be ready to rumble on Friday!

    Rafa in the semis! 😍

  7. Sinner played well. Reminds me a bit of Soderling. Solid flat hitter and seems calm in the chaos at court.

    Rafa was Rafa , Found a way in the first set and then powered through with authority.

    The conditions look pretty bad out there though. Super wierd with the chilly temperatures and low bounce

    Go Rafa 🙂

  8. What never ceases to amaze me is that throughout Nadal’s career he’s always been second-guessed.
    I believe this hasn’t happened with any other great champion.
    Had sinner been playing Fed or Novak, do you think the press would be talking about a possible upset? I don’t think so.
    This match-up was just another example, some were even predicting an upset, that a 19 year old, no matter how good, would beat the 12 time RG champion in a best out of 5 match ….
    I’m reading things like, if Sinner hadn’t been nervous he would have won the first two sets, if , if, blabla.

  9. “Sinner is a very, very young talent with a lot of power, great shots,” said Nadal. “The conditions here were a little bit difficult because he was hitting every ball very hard, for me it was difficult. The ball, with this court, the spin is not there. For me, it was difficult to pull him out of the position.

    “I think in the third set, I did it much better and I finished being much more aggressive. That’s the only way. So, I’m just very happy to be in the semi-finals again in Roland Garros. No doubt it’s the most important place and, for me, the most beautiful place.

    Afterwards, Nadal was asked about the late finish. He said that the cold, windy conditions were particularly hazardous.

    “Of course, it is not an ideal finish, a match at 1.30 in the morning. But the problem is the weather … Honestly, it is very, very cold to play tennis, no? I know football players play under these conditions, but it is a little bit different. They are all the time moving. We stop, we come back, we stop on the changeovers. It is a sport that you are stopped in a lot of moments, no? I think it is a little bit dangerous for the body to play with these very heavy conditions.”

    http://www.theguardian.com

    • “Sinner is a very, very young talent” Sigh. Makes me miss the days when Rafa was a “very, very young talent”. One that makes Sinner pale in comparison. Maybe Sinner will be a great player one day. He’s got a lot of power, for sure and quick hands. We’ll have to see how he develops. I agree that if he’d met the real RG Rafa it would not have been as close as it was. I’m very happy that Rafa was pushed though. He needed that. And even happier it was over in 3 sets. Rafa did NOT need any extra sets!

      Anyway, who cares what anyone else thinks. Look at Rafa in the on court interview after the match. He was pumped! And very pleased with himself. Love to see him glowing.

  10. Sinner winning the first two sets? Thing is if not for the late start and conditions not suiting Rafa, Rafa would’ve won comfortably! Maybe giving out bagels or breadsticks!

    Rafa tends to make hard work out of his matches, when he has to play an opponent for the first time. It’s nothing new, we all know it and that’s why the worry. But, tbh, I predicted a straight sets win by Rafa, though each set might not be as easy as his first few rounds. But, Rafa was really subpar in set one, and so he lost his serve (but as usual, he managed to break back, esp against young and inexperienced opponents).

    I’ll never predict Rafa losing on clay to a young and inexperienced player, esp at RG where he’s the defending champion.

  11. They cant seem to resist bringing up Soderling beating Rafa, year after year, yet always fail to mention that he beat the exact same player in the final the following year *ROLLS EYES *, in straight sets, i always feel my teeth grinding grr ….

    • 😀😀 yeah and also uncanny how they stop short of insinuating who benefited the most from the soderling loss🤨.. the elephant in the room

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