French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

Rafael Nadal is 97-2 lifetime at Roland Garros. Jannik Sinner had never played a match there prior to this fortnight.

It will be mismatch in terms of both resumes and playing styles when Nadal and Sinner collide in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. Given that the Italian has only been on the main tour for a little more than year, it comes as no surprise that this marks their first-ever head-to-head matchup.

Unfortunately for Sinner, this is not exactly the setting at which he would choose to face Nadal. The second-ranked Spaniard’s record at Roland Garros includes 12 titles and a current winning streak of 26 matches in a row. Although Nadal returned from the coronavirus hiatus with a loss to Diego Schwartzman in the Rome quarterfinals, he has picked up the pace in Paris with straight-set routs of Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, Stefano Travaglia, and Sebastian Korda.

“Obviously I’m playing against Rafa here in Roland Garros; it’s not the easiest thing, for sure,” Sinner said. “I mean, I think the record he has here…I think nobody can beat that. He is super confident here. So, you know, it’s going to be a difficult match for sure.

“(The goal is to) always to go on court with the right attitude, trying to play your best tennis–which I have to do if I want to play at the same level as he plays.”

Sinner’s own level has been outstanding, as he has surrendered just one set while producing the best result of his career. The 19-year-old disposed of David Goffin, Benjamin Bonzi, and Federico Coria in straight sets before ousting Alexander Zverev in four on Sunday. Sinner, who upset Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to the Rome third round last month, will break into the top 50 even if he loses on Tuesday.

“He’s improving every single week,” Nadal noted. “So he’s playing better and better and better. It will be a big challenge. It will be the first time playing against him on the tour. I practiced with him a couple of times; he has an amazing potential.”

Sinner has the kind of game that can give the second seed problems. He stands at 6’2”, hits big serves and even bigger forehands, and wields a rock-solid two-hander off the backhand side. And he also moves extremely well for his size. Of course, Korda has a similar style–and he won only four games! Sure, Sinner is much further along than Korda right now; but Nadal’s dominance so far this fortnight does not bode well for the youngster. Expect flashes of brilliance from Sinner, but little sustained success.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11 games or fewer

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35 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

  1. Phew!! Good to be a set up than a set down!! At least the soderling reference stopped. The commentators seem positively downcast after that set

  2. Sinner is still playing quite well.. good thing is rafa diego will be a day match if rafa gets thru.. but of course it will be moot if the roof is closed then

  3. Yeah Sinner losing badly in the TB shut then up. The sinner did okay first set playing Rafa. But it feels all Rafa now and I hope he makes it a swift, clean ending

    By now you are just chilling, right, amy?

  4. I tell you what, Rafa at his 85% plus would be winning handily against Sinner, even doling out some bakery products. This has been a subpar performance, he is down 1-3 now and I hope he can break back again.

  5. Rafa is really subpar, poor almost. Sinner obviously is not playing that well in the second set and Rafa let his chances of breaking slip away when he’s ahead in the game by playing some dumb shots to lose the game.

    Sinner’s BH is obviously his major weapon yet Rafa has to go there time and again! Rafa could have won the second set 6-2 by now instead of still trying to get back to 4-4!

  6. I think problem is Rafa’s BH. Its so short. And his DTL BH is also not crossing the high part of net. I think Rafa usually likes sun and hard clay to fire his BH well. Poor so far !

  7. Rafa is playing defensive tennis, just wanting Sinner to make errors. He has the habit of hitting the ball to the centre of the court when his opponent is there and then get caught without knowing which way his opponent is going to hit to. Djoko is fond of taking advantage of Rafa’s such bad habit.

  8. Wow, Rafa finally wins the second set not without struggles! Ok now plays with some confidence in the third set and finishes the job, it’s 50mins past midnight already local time.

    Sinner is a potentially great player on the clay court – moves well, hits big, serves well, knows how to move to the net, has good court craft imo. For a 19 year old, he truly has great potential, no wonder he won the Next Gen finals last year. His look – he looks a bit like Tomas Berdych.

  9. Has played the big points well. Set 2 was definitely better than set 1 I thought.

    He’ll get it done in 3 sets I think and that is what matters really.He can always raise his level and I am sure he will.

    • 76 64 61 maybe or a bagel 3rd set

      Nighty Nite amy!

      Congrats Rafa fans – I think Schwartzman can make it more interesting.

      No fun playing Rafa by the third set, says the quiet Italian teen.

      • I think he will play better against Diego jalep/ rc/ Elizabeth!
        He frequently has a match where he is very nervous and this was it…
        That’s why I was so nervous..!

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