French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

Rafael Nadal is 97-2 lifetime at Roland Garros. Jannik Sinner had never played a match there prior to this fortnight.

It will be mismatch in terms of both resumes and playing styles when Nadal and Sinner collide in the French Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. Given that the Italian has only been on the main tour for a little more than year, it comes as no surprise that this marks their first-ever head-to-head matchup.

Unfortunately for Sinner, this is not exactly the setting at which he would choose to face Nadal. The second-ranked Spaniard’s record at Roland Garros includes 12 titles and a current winning streak of 26 matches in a row. Although Nadal returned from the coronavirus hiatus with a loss to Diego Schwartzman in the Rome quarterfinals, he has picked up the pace in Paris with straight-set routs of Egor Gerasimov, Mackenzie McDonald, Stefano Travaglia, and Sebastian Korda.

“Obviously I’m playing against Rafa here in Roland Garros; it’s not the easiest thing, for sure,” Sinner said. “I mean, I think the record he has here…I think nobody can beat that. He is super confident here. So, you know, it’s going to be a difficult match for sure.

“(The goal is to) always to go on court with the right attitude, trying to play your best tennis–which I have to do if I want to play at the same level as he plays.”

Sinner’s own level has been outstanding, as he has surrendered just one set while producing the best result of his career. The 19-year-old disposed of David Goffin, Benjamin Bonzi, and Federico Coria in straight sets before ousting Alexander Zverev in four on Sunday. Sinner, who upset Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to the Rome third round last month, will break into the top 50 even if he loses on Tuesday.

“He’s improving every single week,” Nadal noted. “So he’s playing better and better and better. It will be a big challenge. It will be the first time playing against him on the tour. I practiced with him a couple of times; he has an amazing potential.”

Sinner has the kind of game that can give the second seed problems. He stands at 6’2”, hits big serves and even bigger forehands, and wields a rock-solid two-hander off the backhand side. And he also moves extremely well for his size. Of course, Korda has a similar style–and he won only four games! Sure, Sinner is much further along than Korda right now; but Nadal’s dominance so far this fortnight does not bode well for the youngster. Expect flashes of brilliance from Sinner, but little sustained success.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11 games or fewer

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47 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Sinner

  1. Tough one to call since Rafa has crushed non-opponents thus far, he hasn’t even been challenged. So there’s not a whole lot to go on.

    I was very impressed with Sinner against Zverev, I think he can take a set here. The first one will probably be his best chance. I do wonder how he’ll deal with the high bounce, whether it’ll make it much harder than usual to hit those big groundstrokes flat. Also not sure if he would actually be able to go the distance if necessary. I feel like he’s mentally very steady for a 19 y/o, but physically? Zverev was able to wear him down a little bit, it’s pretty damn hard to consistently hit big off both wings for 4-5 sets.

  2. I hope some of you will be on site for tomorrow. It was really nice to have Mona to talk to for the Korda match! Hoping she and others will.be around as I am always super nervous when Rafa plays.
    I swear if he played a ball boy I would still have the heebie jeebies..
    It would help if we knew what time he was playing mind you…!

    • They’ve released the oop. Rafa is playing last with 4 matches before! So that could be on very late. Not sure if that affects anything…

  3. Haha! Mark Petchey has just said that if they meet in the semis Stefanos has no real chance of beating Nole. MP says Stefanos is too aggressive so will make too many ues and his first serve isn’t good enough!!!

    • Hello amy 😀 I am a big Sinner fan and he seems to be solid and improving by leaps and bounds, but I doubt he’ll get a set off of Rafa 😀
      I hope the young sinner man can hold his own for enough time to make me proud, but he won’t beat Rafa!! No worries, sister.

      About Nole vs PBC – that match-up worries me. Pablo has given Nole problems in the past. If Nole succeeds in making quick work of Pablo, I give him a good chance vs Tsitsipas. Oh… wait, I see Stefanos has to play Rublev first!! That one could be very good. Rublev is on a roll. There are no assurances on that side of the draw. Should be two exciting quarterfinals!!

      • I don’t give Busta any chance against Nole Elizabeth. Seriously! The only.thing I can see getting to Nole is if it is a dry and windy day. He does lose concentration in the wind but even so Busta won’t beat him.

      • What do you mean, Big Al? (hello, nice to read you, btw)

        Do you think Rublev is better on clay than Tsitsipas?

        If so, I agree. Always thought once Rubles grew up and got over his early injury issues he would be great on clay. He certainly is the best on clay of the Russian lot, I daresay.

        • Hi RC, I’m edging towards Rublev on that one . Just think he’ll be a bit tougher mentally .
          Not sure about who would be a tougher opponent for Nole.

          • I think the reason I picked Rublev as tougher opponent for Nole was that in slow conditions Tsitsi would find it hard to attack the net and make too many errors. But I’m not sure.Must check the H2Hs

      • I’m not sure about that. I mean, what does Rublev do better than Djokovic? It’s hard to think of anything. Whereas at least Tsitsipas is a bit more aggressive, he can come in behind his serve and use the angles to work Djokovic off the court. It seems unlikely that either would beat Djokovic, but I think Tsitsipas is probably the more dangerous opponent.

        • You might be right, about Tsitsipas, thinwhiteduke. I just watched more of Rublev recently and have been impressed.

          Actually, I think PCB is the toughest test of the three for Nole.

  4. Sinner will not live up to his name here and cause a huge upset.And PCB will not either .

    So,having jinxed it,anything is possible 😉

    As long as Nole keeps winning,Im happy

  5. Ive gone Nadal in 4 but I was actually worried I might be underestimating Sinner. Best prospect since Djokovic started on the tour IMO. Anything is possible.

  6. I think Tsitsipas has better chances Vs Djoko than Rublev does. Rublev is more one dimensional, and he struggled to put his opponent away in the fourth round. He could have lost another set had his opponent not being indecisive when having SP against Rublev.

    Rublev seems better on the hard courts as he could be aggressive charging to the net (and that’s how he beat Fed) but on clay he tends to stay at the baseline playing hard hitting tennis.

    Tsitsipas’ problem is that his level tends to fluctuate from set to set, so he tends to spend more energy on court than necessary. I think if he serves well and charges the net often to take time away from Djoko, he can beat Djoko.

    • That might be true but I think Rublev will beat Tsitsipas in 4 sets. Fucsovics was in super sharp form and Tsitisipas gave Dimitrov too many opportunities and was framing a lot of shots. That amount of opportunities will get eaten up by someone of Rublev’s quality right now.

      • Dimi was playing well by his current standard. Tsitsipas didn’t give Dimi much chances to beat him. Rublev otoh was giving his opponent many chances to win two sets, it’s his opponent who played poorly when having SPs and couldn’t convert them.

        • Oh Lucky, I missed the Tsitsipas/ Dimi match. And respect what you say. There is a good chance Rublev has gone past his best with his 4 and 5 set matches this tournament. Still, a pretty good showing for him this tournament.

          Either way, whoever wins, this should be a good QF!

    • Yes, Rublev doesn’t fluctuate as much as Tsitsi. Rublev has a steelier focus and will. But god, he did win hard-fought battles to get to this quarterfinal spot. They both are young enough to have fast recovery times: Stefanos and Andrey. Andrey’s clay-court positioning is improving nicely. He knows where he wants to be and had a lot of practice at it vs young Spaniard, Fokina Davidovich (4) sets, Sam Querrey (5) sets, and Fucsovics (4) sets. Forgetting who else he played, atm.

    • Lucky .I think tsitsipas will come very focussed if he has to meet djoko..he will try to make a statement just like he did against fed ao 19

  7. Worst possible match up in the worst of circumstances today.. night session against a player with dhbh and quick oon the court.. this match should be a clear indicator of rafas level.. vamos

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