French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

The first nine days of the French Open could not gave gone any better for Rafael Nadal. He has faced only one seeded opponent (David Goffin) and has mostly dominated through four rounds, dropping just one set to Goffin along the way. Now he faces a player (Kei Nishikori) who is coming off consecutive five-setters and will have no days of rest after finishing off Benoit Paire 6-2, 6-7(8), 6-2, 6-7(8), 7-5 on Monday.

Nishikori also did extremely well to overcome a 4-0 fifth-set deficit against Laslo Djere in the the third round, but his reward for reaching the quarterfinals is unlikely to include more than a lot of ranking points and prize money. It is almost impossible to see him parlaying it into a semifinal berth.

In addition to obvious fatigue, the world No. 7 from Japan–who has never held up particularly well from a physical standpoint–is 2-10 lifetime against Nadal (0-4 on clay, 0-1 at Roland Garros). They most recently faced each other last spring in Monte-Carlo, where the Spaniard cruised 6-3, 6-2 to take the title.

Nadal is going for his 12th title at this tournament and his bid is off to a thoroughly routine start. The second seed preceded his defeat of Goffin by hammering qualifiers Yannick Hanfmann and Yannick Maden, and his fourth-rounder on Sunday resulted in a 6-2, 6-3, 6-3 victory over Juan Ignacio Londero.

“What happened here (11 titles)…something really unbelievable,” Nadal assured. “I don’t know what can happen in the future or not. I am trying my best to compete well and to give a chance to be where I am today. Now (I’m) gonna have tough match against Kei. So that’s my goal now. But of course, yeah, 11 here already is something really unbelievable.”

It may be too early to start thinking about No. 12, but even Nadal should be willing to look past Tuesday in anticipation of the semifinals–likely against Roger Federer. This one is going to be a rout.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 5-7 games

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37 Comments on French Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

    • Most weather forecasts have thunder storms and rain showers for a large part of tomorrow. Why are the men 2nd on Chatrier while they ie Fed and Stan start on Lenglen? That means Fed and Stan most likely finish their match while Rafa and Kei may very well not.
      Is this some tradition? I was surprised to see Fed and Stan on Lenglen mind you.

    • Thanks Nadline for that!!

      I was waiting bcos I have tickets for SL! So I won’t get to see Rafa, but Roger and Wawa should be a good match. After I can always watch Rafa on the big screen after Roger’s match!!

      Hope tomorrow is a better day than it is today, sigh! Monfils disappointed me, really!

      VAMOS Rafa!

      Shame I cannot get to see Sloane Stephens though!!

  1. Amy..qfs were always split between Chartier n lenglen ..but it’s TV..2 big names .so they will schedule it at different times for max viewership..

    The sfs will be played on chartier n one will play second .if the second match goes long .it’s disadvantage clearly .see how Rafa got short end of stick last wimby .had to play with roof closed because of earlier match .

    • That’s why he is on second sanju! Whichever court he is on because Fed gets to play first he is more likely to finish! The decision should have been the other way round ie Fed and Stan playing second on Chatrier.
      But that would mean they might not be on court for long so Stan would have time to recover and play most of it on Wednesday! They don’t want that! Bet you Fed’s agent insisted Fed played first!

      • It’s ok Amy..the SF is on Friday..even if match carries over to wednesday..there is a days gap..but I doubt it will..

        I rather Rafa get the court of his choice chartier though second than play first on lenglen..

      • I think Fed/Stan is likely to go longer than Rafa/Kei unless Stan is just completely worn out. Rafa should take care of Kei quickly unless the weather becomes a problem.

        I’m just kinda disgusted that Rafa could be in a witness protection program for all I’ve been able to see of him on TV!

  2. Stan will be happy playing on lenglen..he had more feel of the court than fed..Stan never played on chartier this year..

  3. This was the QF match-up I expected but wasn’t looking forward to: Niskikori, who even at full power could never beat Nadal on clay and in his present depleted state has no chance. I was so hoping that Paire would win that match. At least he would have injected some unpredictability into the proceedings. The only thing unpredictable about Nishikori here is whether he plays or withdraws; I’d put the odds at 50%.

    Nadal undoubtedly drew the easiest quarter in this tournament.

    • Actually the easiest quarter is Djoko’s! He has Foggy, who bows to him (he’s 8-0 against Foggy), and a Sasha who’s having problem with his game and in bad shape and form coming into the FO. He has a Struff who’s playing well on clay coming into the FO no doubt, but Struff was softened by Coric in a five sets battle before facing off with Djoko. There’re no other threats in his quarter who are good on clay.

      Rafa has Goffin, Pella, Medvedev, and a certain Laslo Djere (who won many matches on clay already), and an erratic Paire but who’s suddenly playing well on clay (won a title on clay I believe), if we think Kei isn’t a threat on clay to Rafa.

      • Well, Zverev hasn’t done any damage at slams, but it’s only a matter of time. He’s won masters and everyone expects him to start doing well in slams. He was #3 in the world until pretty recently, and it’s unlikely for the top seed to draw the #5 seed in the QF, imo.

        The players you mentioned are good, especially Medvedev, but except for Goffin they all peaked before RG. It’s really the QF where you expect to meet a top player, and I think Rafa couldn’t have asked for an easier one (for him) than Kei. Any of the others (Stan, Khachanov, Zverev) would present more problems for him.

        I was very surprised Struff beat Coric, who I think would have given Novak quite a test.

        • You talk about the quarter, not the QF opponent that the top four guys are likely to meet hence my response.

          And Sasha was in bad shape coming into the FO, who cares what he has done before or what he will achieve in the future? It’s not relevant to the current state that he’s in.

          And, before the FO starts, who knows which player has already peaked before the FO?? Anyway, like I said, none in Djoko’s quarter, except Foggy, Sasha if he picked up his game, Struff and maybe Coric are playing well on clay. Djoko has Coric to thank for, for softening Struff in a 4 hour match before they meet in R4, if not I expect Struff to at least take a set off Djoko. As for Coric, he has no chance against Djoko, for he’s the junior version of Djoko himself, lost to Djoko each time they played.

        • And, Laslo and Paire didn’t peak before the FO, they came in TOP form and both lost to Kei in five sets!

          Rafa was supposed to meet Pella in R3 and Medvedev in R4 but both lost early.

          • True about Pella and Medvedev, I had forgotten that they were on his side of the quarter. Yes, maybe he has just been lucky that his draw hasn’t been as tough as it could have been.

          • LOL, all the big three have been lucky their draw hasn’t been as tough as it could have been. I was hoping Paire would beat Kei but he went back to being Paire, or maybe he’s just tired. Winning a tournament the week before a slam is not ideal prep if you hope to go deep, but I suppose Paire didn’t. Also he played doubles for crying out loud.

            Kei gets hurt a lot but he’s no wimp. If he can stand he’ll at least start the match.

  4. I live in Brussels, which more or less has the same weather as Paris and it’s already raining here 🙁 (but at least it’s not cold)

  5. Rafa looking ok, playing well but not necessarily at his current best form yet; to me not at Rome level but that’s enough to have double breaks already against Kei.

  6. This is very frustrating. I don’t know why the tennis channel does this. They say to use tennis channel plus but that costs money. It’s a disgrace.

    The score may not tell the whole story. Nishi has to be gassed after another five set match.

    I appreciate lucky’s comments. At least someone can see it. It’s hard because Rafa has not been challenged. I thought Rafa played well enough to get the win against Londero. But he has to raise his level of play for the semis.

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