French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

It may be the “other” semifinal on Friday, but no one should be surprised if Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem turns out to be the better of the two matches–in terms of both quality and competitiveness.

Neither one of their first two French Open matches lived up to the hype, but it was not only Djokovic who engineered a beatdown. After the Serb cruised 6-2, 6-1, 6-4 in the 2016 semifinals, Thiem returned the favor one year later by dominating 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-0 in the quarters.

Overall, Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 6-2–including 3-2 on clay. They just faced each other last month in Madrid, where the world No. 1 prevailed 7-6(2), 7-6(4) on his eventual way to the title. Thiem’s other victory came at the 2018 Monte-Carlo Masters via a 6-7(2), 6-2, 6-3 decision.

Although Thiem looked vulnerable earlier this fortnight, he is now looking like a future (and maybe even present, come Sunday afternoon) champion at Roland Garros that many in the tennis world tip him to become. After scraping past Tommy Paul, Alexander Bublik, and Pablo Cuevas all in four tough sets, the fourth-ranked Austrian destroyed both Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov without losing more than four games in any set.

“I think every match [I’ve gotten] better and better,” Thiem assessed. “(The) first two opponents were very tough because they also didn’t give (me) any rhythm and they didn’t have anything to lose. So these were two very tough matches. From the third round on, it got a lot better.”

Djokovic is perfect through five rounds, having made routine work of Hubert Hurkacz, Henri Laaksonen, Salvatore Caruso, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Alexander Zverev. The top seed and 2016 French Open winner is 13-1 in his last 14 clay-court matches, with a loss only to Rafael Nadal in the Rome final.

Thus the stage is set for a blockbuster semifinal lineup, which also includes Nadal vs. Roger Federer. Thiem may be the outsider among the four in terms of major title-winning experience, but it’s obvious from both past French Open success and current form that he is the only other player who truly belongs on semifinal Friday.

“Dominic is deservedly where he is–one of the top four guys, especially on clay,” Djokovic explained. “That’s where he’s playing his best tennis. He’s got that tremendous power in his game, especially with forehand and serve. I think (his) backhand also has improved a lot in the last couple of years.

“(It) seems like his relationship with (new coach Nicolas) Massu has helped him a lot…also mentally, I think, in big matches; seems like it has been working really well. If he continues playing this way, not just on clay but in general, I think we will probably be seeing him more often on different surfaces in the final stages of the tournament.”

Will we see Thiem in the final? We did last year, and he has been no less impressive on the slow stuff in 2019. His recent exploits are highlighted by a title in Barcelona, where he defeated Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in the semis.

Beating Djokovic at Roland Garros may be even more difficult, but it is a feat Thiem has already accomplished once. And as well as the 15-time slam winner is playing right now, he still does not appear to be at his Australian Open best.

Pick: Thiem in 5

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63 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Thiem

  1. Yes finally!! See, it’s your FH that wins you the match!

    Phew! What a match after the rain delay, at least some good tennis at last. Thiem really needs to learn how to solve problems on court, he has missed so many chances to end the match earlier.

    At least he has now beaten a world no.1 in a slam, it’s a step forward on the right path; just don’t beat Rafa on Sunday!

      • @NNY Yeah, I noticed that. But I think it was the effort, not the achievement, that did him in last time. Maybe he paced himself better this time, focusing mainly on the slams, which would explain why he performed relatively poorly in the masters events. I think Djokovic is desperate for achievements to separate himself from Fed/Rafa.

  2. Although Thiem will likely be a much easier opponent for Nadal I’m glad he won, just felt like he deserved it. In spite of all the chokes, he had momentum stopped multiple times by rain delays and still kept going hard.

    This year I think Thiem may be good enough to win a set, but we’ll see how he pulls up from this one.

  3. At least now we don’t need to listen to all the hype about Djoko’s double non calendar slams and also his double career slams!

    With this win Thiem gets to retain his no.4 ranking, had he lost in the SF, he would drop to no.6, just below Tsitsipas at no.5. I feel it’s about right Thiem is no.4, as Sasha isn’t playing all that well at the moment to become no.4 again.

  4. Am so glad Thiem did it. As good as Thiem can be, I was more scared of Djokovic. he is a different animal when he faces Nadal these days. I am not against him but the whole narrative with him being greater than Nadal and Federer puts me off.

    And more so, now this is a great chance for Nadal to get to his 18th and stretch away from Djokovic inching closer to Fed. Its all about numbers now. I will be ok with them three ending up their careers with a tie.

    Good luck to Nadal and all of us Rafans for tomorrow!

      • oh I know. This is a good bunch. Or else I wouldnt be writing on a non Nadal thread 🙂

        Was surprised with Amy tho. Why was she rooting for Djokovic.. Beats me

          • Ah ok Amy. Understood. Longer or not, I am just glad it was over and its not Djokovic on the other side on Sunday.

            Should we have more belief in our boy. Either we want an exhausted opponent or just dont want him at all. Would be a nice thing to see Rafa beat Djokovic in their prime and both at their best. I would have a heartattack for sure. 😀

  5. Thiem into another FO final has proven that his 2018 run was no fluke. I think he’s reaching his peak now at 25 almost 26. I wish for him to have a better career than that Dimi guy, who is such a disappointment after his 2017.

  6. Ricky’s predictions spot on ! Theim was the better player from baseline. But I am still not convinced that Theim is an easier opponent in comparison to Nole for Rafa. Theim will recover quickly and I think he can trouble Rafa with his FH CC hurrying Rafa on FH CC side.

    But Rafa should be prepared. Theim is having lapses of concentration in between and thats why he has lost 5 sets so far.

  7. Thiem in final… Atleast I can sleep well tonight…I hope rafa wins but if he does not,I am okay with thiem winning. Very nice guy and he deserves it as much .

    And ricky is just Nostradamus this tourney. He is predicting right sets ss well as the schedule of matches 🙂

    • I agree. I wont feel as bad if Thiem wins as against Djokovic and he certainly deserves it. But ofcourse I want Nadal to lift his 12th. Its like a less pressure scenario for him. and then onto Wimbledon. I would never stop wanting more for Rafa. I do feel he has had a lot of missed opportunities and he deserves to go out at the top.

  8. PK i dont post here often, but i will say Amys a Rafa fan, but also has alot of respect for the other all time greats too, i think she probably wanted to see if Rafa could return the favour and beat Novak on his own territory after what happened at the AO final lol, anyway im just second guessing here, she can speak for herself, Amys a great objective tennis fan first and foremost, my two cents 🙂

    • I would think so too. For a long time I was so proud Rafa’s final record was against his best rival(s) Fed and Djok. unlike Fed who in a way I do think had a weaker era substantially before these two came along ( without taking away the least for a guy thats showing phenomenal tennis and passion at 37. Cant dislike that guy anymore) .

      But I dont care anymore if Rafa wins returns the favour or not. I just want him to rack up some more GS titles. He sure deserves atleast one more wimbledon and oh certainly one more Aussie for sure. He was the first for a while to be as close to a double career slam and he has been missing it for too long now.

      Also as to Djokovic. I loved when he changed his mindset when he started mentioning Fed and Nadal as his rivals instead of the usual “Oh its an honour to play against them”. Thats what turned the tables for him and a perfect example for belief. But I cant stand it when someone says he is greater and he is the best.. Could as well be that he has the most rounded game but you dont put down champions just because they start losing. That said, all three deserve equal respect from each of their fans.

    • Thanks Alison dear! I wasn’t really rooting for either player but it’s true I did want Rafa to play and beat Nole! Also I am very fond of rc/Elizabeth and I don’t want her to feel like she can’t come here as there is a lot of anti Nole feeling. I do also worry that people are underestimating Dom. Thanks again Alison!!☺☺☺

  9. I apologize to all Novak fans in advance but I have to make a point and I will.

    Karma is the biggest b!tch and it showed up today for Novak. Remember mr djokovic how during wimby 2018 semi you refused to allow the roof to be opened on the second day n insisted match played under roof ? You could have agrees to keep the roof open as it’s outdoor tourney and subscribing to fair play but uou did not and you robbed rafa a slam he wanted . Guess what..you wanted this slam even more, you were going for 4 in a row and double career slam n mother nature gave it right back to you with harder ferocity at exactly the same stage. Hope you learn and take lessons from it mr djokovic . The way you just stormed off the court yesterday n left Thiem at sea was so disrespectful too n smelt of arrogance. You are a nice guy and it is okay to want to win but some acts and behaviour of yours are so repulsive and it is the only reason you are not a loved champion like the other 2- something you always grudge.

    • Interesting, Sanju. I don’t really believe in karma…but Djokovic DOES! Oddly, though, the weather breaks in this semi actually helped him and hurt Theim, I felt. Theim needs a little time to get rolling – Djokovic needed time to get his head together.

      • It’s not the breaks I am talking about…it’s the wind .external circumstances ..he got an environment not conducive to his playing style just like rafa did not in wimby semi.

    • I actually agree with this. I believe in karma. I also know that a good deal of the blame was on the Wimbledon tournament organizers. But Novak decided he wanted that roof open, despite the fact that it was sunny. In a close match that was decided on a few points, that made the difference. I wanted Rafa to get another Wimbledon title after not being able to play due to injuries for a few years. People forgot just how good he is on grass. He should have lifted his third Wimbledon trophy.

  10. Regarding last year’s Wimbledon SF, I too feel that Rafa was robbed a chance to hold that trophy again with all the wrong decisions made by the organisers in particular. And, worse still, it ended up costing Rafa his fifth YE no. 1. By my calculation, as long as Rafa reached the Wimbledon final (that means Djoko lost in the SF), Rafa would retain his no. 1 ranking and be the YE no. 1, too bad he didn’t!

      • If Rafa just reached the final at Wimbledon, he would have 7960(7480+1200-720) points, and Djoko losing in the SF to Rafa would mean he ended the year with 7765 points (9045-2000+720),so Rafa despite not playing anything after the USO, would ended up being the YE no. 1 had he reached the Wimbledon final (he didn’t even need to win it to retain his no. 1 ranking).

    • I agree Lucky, but I wouldnt think it was roof as much as it was Rafa’s own undoing. He should have won that match indoors or not. Had enough opportunities. Set points in the third, a little more angle on the approach at 15-40 in the fifth. It was much like the sitter he missed in the Aus 2012 to go up 4-2.

      But tennis is a cruel sport, the thinnest of margins. At the end of the day, some moments go your way and some dont. But to see him come back everytime and come back strong is a pleasure.

      • You see PK, by starting the match indoors, it’s already a disadvantage to Rafa – Rafa mentioned that he couldn’t see the ball clearly in the first set under the light, so he lost the first set rather quickly. When you’re one set down so quickly, you’re already at a disadvantage.

        Rafa was already doing well on grass, considering he had a tough five setter vs Delpo in the previous round, whilst Djoko didn’t have a difficult match before the SF.

        I blame the organisers for not getting the second SF on court early enough to avoid having it played over two days. It would not be under the roof had it started earlier.

      • Yes rafa could have won the match indoors too but all I am saying is imagine would the match have gone 5 had it been outdoors…the rule said the roof can be opened if both players agree and nole did not. It’s an outdoor tourney n the otgsniZers should not leave it to the players discretion. By default every outdoor tourney should be played outdoors on a new day

        • I absolutely agree Sanju. It made zero sense the roof would be closed on a perfectly sunny day. If a match can be played outdoors and then have the roof closed for the rest of it, it can as well make sense the roof be opened on the next day for what was played indoor for a reason. (for an outdoor tournament for God’s sakes).

          I think tennis has become exceedingly competetive along with three simultaneous all time greats, Organizers get confused on what makes sense. It did expose Novak a bit on he would do anything for a win. and I totally agree with your Karma comment. For the most part, I do think Novak was wrong even if the rules were in his favour.

          • At least Wimbly has learned from their HUGE mistake — spectators were as unhappy as Rafa was with that closed roof — and changed the rule so that the next day’s play WILL be outdoors if weather is suitable.

  11. Im just glad Theim did t, but for a long while there I really didn’t think he would have the bottle, and so did Novak! But he did! Good for him!

    Vamos, Rafa!!!

  12. Hope you aren’t too upset Elizabeth?! Nole couldn’t handle the wind and resorted to some crazy tactics serving into it as he got so anxious. Hoping for a rafole final at wimby!!

    • Anyway xxx to both you and Alison! Very glad you both defected from a certain site which we won’t mention and post here. ☺☺☺

    • Fedal at wimby will be better Amy in final. Imagine what hype it will create..it has not happened since 08. Rafaole match happ last year.

  13. I hate going on about the past, but i will say to this day i have no idea as to why they thought the roof needed closing , on a boiling hot sunny day , had it been raining fair enough, Wimbledon is supposed to be an outdoor tournament, end of story ….

    • Alison, your point is perfectly logical, and Wimbledon obviously agrees with you because they changed he rules to that starting this year. As I’ve said before, though, as someone who had no dog in that fight, that is is also a solid argument for that match to finished as it was started. I’m not saying it’s the right or wrong argument, but to me it’s a logical argument that the fair thing to do would be to have the whole match played in the same conditions. Let’s be honest that a big reason for disagreement in this topic is that Novak fans wanted the roof to remain closed because Novak happens to play well under a roof, and Rafa fans wanted it to open because Rafa does not play as well under a roof. But when it comes down to it, both arguments make logical sense. Because they both make sense, I wouldn’t have cared what Wimbledon decided. But their decision to change the rule having the roof open no matter how the match was played the previous day makes sense. I do see the argument for the most fair thing being to keep the conditions to same through the whole match, but it’s not quite a better argument than only having the roof closed when it needs to be. My only qualm with all of this is when people tried to claim like there was no logical sense in anyone wanting the match to played for the last two sets as it was for the first 3.

      The truth, though, as you stated, is that it’s in the past. Sure, Rafa plays better without a roof. But we can’t just pretend like Novak somehow isn’t as good without a roof as he is with it. There’s so much hair-splitting involved with this one that there is absolutely no way anyone could claim that the roof was definitively what made the difference.

      • Well said Kevin. Both sides of the argument stick. I was just saying how half a match gets played outdoors and the rest of it with the roof because of rain should be applied vice versa too.

        But yes its just an argument. Would it have mattered if Rafa won. Heck no! 🙂

      • Kevin, if the match was played within the same day, then yes I agree, that conditions should remain the same whether the rain stopped or started again, so once the roof was closed because of the rain, then let it remained close even though there might be sunshine afterwards.

        However, it’s quite hypocritical to say that let the conditions remained unchanged when the match was played over two days, when the players’ conditions (their physical conditions) would have changed after the night’s rest!.

        In this particular case, the roof was closed not because of rain, but because of impending darkness as the match went on (in order to have the lights on, they needed to close the roof), but when play resumed the next day, there’s bright sunshine so why they needed the roof and the artificial lights on?

        • And most importantly Wimby is an outdoor event to begin with! There is no argument to support changing the event into an indoor just because they wanted to keep the same conditions! That’s a plain stupid rule and it is wise decision to alter it!

      • Agree totally, and why should roof closed make such a difference? And nearly a year later, some people are still nitpicking this.
        This years RG surely called for a roof, which might have affected the results , but who’s going to complain about that?

          • Big Al, that’s because RG has no roof yet! We won’t complain if RG’s PC court has a roof and it’s closed to keep out the rain. Next year we’ll see the roof at PC court and I’m sure we won’t be complaining if it’s closed for the rain!

            We are fine with the roof closed for the rain, but Wimbledon closed the roof not for the rain but for impending darkness. They started the second SF at about 6pm when there’s still natural light. Again, starting the second SF at 6pm knowing that the match between two greats would probably not going to end so soon, didnt they think it’s unfair to the players that they might have to complete the match in two days? And, they didn’t even want to postpone the final to Monday for the sake of being fair to the players.

            It’s the same here at RG, the final should be on Monday to be fair to Thiem, but they said the weather on Monday may be even worse than Sunday’s.

            I think next year with the new roof, it’ll be possible to postpone the final to Monday if similar scenarios like this year’s occurs. They’re having a roof over the PC court only, I’m not sure there won’t be rain delays as matches played on the other courts would still be stopped or delayed by rain.

          • And, I’m sure the spectators there at the Wimbledon SFs last year were getting irritated with the Isner/Anderson match when it had gone on like forever. They paid high prices for the tickets because they wanted to see the marquee match between two greats (if they didn’t have Fedal, at least they had Rafa/Djoko match!), but they were made to wait and then had to come back the next day again!

            I think the Wimbledon organiser should put the marquee match first, for the sake of the spectators, and if the marquee match had gone more than three sets, then had the second SF played in the second show court so that the SF could be completed within the day.

          • I agree with all that,the semi should never have been started at 6pm knowing they had a rule about stopping at 11pm.And the final should have been on Monday,as at RG this year.
            But,if you were a Nole fan,you,’d feel equally aggrieved if he went on to lose if the roof had been opened.
            A big question mark about why Thiem-Nole were taken off on Friday,rain was sort of forecast but it never came.

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