French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

As expected, Rafael Nadal made mostly routine work of his relatively soft quarter at Roland Garros. That could change during championship weekend, when his path to the title begins with Juan Martin Del Potro and potentially ends with Dominic Thiem.

Nadal and Del Potro will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they clash in the French Open semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 9-5 in favor of the Spaniard, who has gone up against Del Potro only twice on clay and predictably won both of those meetings (7-5, 6-3, 6-2 at the 2007 French Open and 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6(0) with home-court advantage in the 2011 Davis Cup final). Del Potro had been on a two-match winning streak at Nadal’s expense before falling 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2017 U.S. Open semis.

The Argentine’s second appearance in the Roland Garros semis looked far from a sure thing prior to the beginning of this fortnight, and not just because clay a less favorable surface for him than a hard court. Following a brilliant hard-court stretch with titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells plus a semifinal showing in Miami, Del Potro retired from a Rome third-round match against David Goffin due to a groin injury.

Simply showing up in Paris was in doubt for the 2009 U.S. Open champion, and things did not look good when he dropped his opening set 6-1 to Nicolas Mahut. But it all turned around for Del Potro thereafter, as he made his way through the second section of the bracket by beating Mahut, Julien Benneteau, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, John Isner, and Marin Cilic.
The world No. 6 has dropped two sets (the other to Cilic on Thursday), while Nadal donated his first to Diego Schwartzman early in their quarterfinal on Wednesday. An overnight rain delay allowed the 10-time champion to regroup, and he did just that–roaring back for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 victory. Nadal preceded that results with wins over Simone Bolelli, Guido Pella, Richard Gasquet, and Maximilian Marterer while improving to 24-1 on clay in 2018 and 84-2 lifetime at the French Open.

“He’s lefty and [as I said] before my match against Ramos, a lefty player has advantage with me because he can find easily my backhand and he knows what my backhand is at the moment,” Del Potro explained. “But anyways, I will try to do my best–to play my best tennis and see if I can do a good match. I have nothing to lose tomorrow. We’ll see what can I do against the King of Clay.”

The fifth seed needed to play three full sets against Cilic on Thursday, so his his tank may not be completely on full for this one. At least for a while, though, that may not terrible thing for Del Potro because he will be forced to implement the correct strategy against Nadal: serve big, hit aggressive second-serve returns, and go for huge, high-risk shots early in rallies.

That may pay off briefly for a red-hot underdog, but a best-of-five situation on clay against Nadal is likely too tough of a task–especially with zero days off.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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28 Comments on French Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

  1. Want Rafa to keep up the tempo, not let Delpo back into match! He should not let Delpo lame duck posture deter his mission!

    • I like how Rafa can admit to being stressed or nervous. As Carlos Moya said after he was questioned about Rafa losing to Thiem – he’s human. As great as he is, he is still not immune to doubts or nerves. But he manages to overcome them.

      It is so good to see him playing this way.

    • Exactly, don’t understand why, and I’m pissed that he allowed Diego to boss him around. At least a Delpo or a Thiem kind of player who hits with power and has good to great serve could dictate play against Rafa but Diego?

      Even a Djoko couldn’t dictate play on clay against Rafa and Djoko is so much better than Diego even on clay. Diego did go five sets vs Djoko at last year’s FO but that Djoko was already a subpar Djoko with elbow injury.

      • Diego has continued to improve, and at his best can match Rafa from the baseline. His ground-strokes are probably as good and he may be faster than Nadal at this point.

        Where Nadal is better is on serve, return, and at the net. But from a neutral point in the rally, Diego has the tools to boss Nadal around a bit.

        • Just a bit. Ha ha at least you say a bit (that means not much) but Rafa can boss Diego around a lot! Just watch set three and four of the QF match.

          Diego may be fast but he doesn’t have Rafa’s power and precision especially when rushed. He’s still far away from Rafa, hence he’s losing all his clay court matches (plus HC matches) to Rafa.

  2. Rafa playing like this is a joy to watch for his fans. He should keep up this intensity and level right into the final!

    • I’m certain he knows alright but he has never taken it for granted. it’s one of the things his fans love about him.

  3. YEESSSS! Rafa won in straight!…Thank u thank u God for the amazing weather too today!…Thank u Rafa for chose to be SuperHuman today!!..And Thank u guys for being a very fabulous Rafans!!Wooooooohoooooo!!

    On to the UNBEL11EVABLE FINAL!!…YEEEAAAHHHHH!!

    Oh!…Wanna dedicated this win to Jim too for been a very hard worker again today on TG!

  4. Yes, Rafa is into his 11th final here at the FO! He ties Fed’s at Wimbledon 11 finals. So happy that Rafa despite his serving woes, is able to reach the final again. Hope he does one better and wins the title on Sunday. Vamos Rafa!

  5. Delpo is now world no.4, well done to him. The Italian guy is into TOP 50 if I’m not wrong, so congrats to him too. Hope he and Bolelli can continue to play good aggressive tennis and move up the rankings.

  6. Chapeau to the Gentle Giant for carrying on so sportingly. It was obvious he was struggling physically and I’m certain if it had not been the SF at RG he might well have withdrawn.

  7. I don’t think Rafa does know how good he is. But he knows how good he WANTS to be and he knows that he’s a champion. I think and hope that this year we’re seeing Rafa smelling the finish line. If so he becomes unstoppable!

  8. It’s not easy to handle Rafa’s shots on clay. He could give you different types of balls to look at on clay.

    If you watch Delpo vs Cilic, it’s like watching a HC match, not much varieties, just hard hitting and you can expect how each ball is coming (or going) at each other between the two of them.

    Rafa can absorb the pace, varies the topspin, and injects the pace to keep opponents guessing. His is not hard hitting tennis but it comes with power, precision plus varieties, no wonder Delpo couldn’t handle this Rafa on clay despite his hard hitting power tennis.

  9. delpo has said in his presser rafa is too strong, he has improved a lot, his bh has improved enormously and at 32 he keeps improving

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