As expected, Rafael Nadal made mostly routine work of his relatively soft quarter at Roland Garros. That could change during championship weekend, when his path to the title begins with Juan Martin Del Potro and potentially ends with Dominic Thiem.
Nadal and Del Potro will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they clash in the French Open semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 9-5 in favor of the Spaniard, who has gone up against Del Potro only twice on clay and predictably won both of those meetings (7-5, 6-3, 6-2 at the 2007 French Open and 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6(0) with home-court advantage in the 2011 Davis Cup final). Del Potro had been on a two-match winning streak at Nadal’s expense before falling 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2017 U.S. Open semis.
The Argentine’s second appearance in the Roland Garros semis looked far from a sure thing prior to the beginning of this fortnight, and not just because clay a less favorable surface for him than a hard court. Following a brilliant hard-court stretch with titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells plus a semifinal showing in Miami, Del Potro retired from a Rome third-round match against David Goffin due to a groin injury.
Simply showing up in Paris was in doubt for the 2009 U.S. Open champion, and things did not look good when he dropped his opening set 6-1 to Nicolas Mahut. But it all turned around for Del Potro thereafter, as he made his way through the second section of the bracket by beating Mahut, Julien Benneteau, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, John Isner, and Marin Cilic.
The world No. 6 has dropped two sets (the other to Cilic on Thursday), while Nadal donated his first to Diego Schwartzman early in their quarterfinal on Wednesday. An overnight rain delay allowed the 10-time champion to regroup, and he did just that–roaring back for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 victory. Nadal preceded that results with wins over Simone Bolelli, Guido Pella, Richard Gasquet, and Maximilian Marterer while improving to 24-1 on clay in 2018 and 84-2 lifetime at the French Open.
“He’s lefty and [as I said] before my match against Ramos, a lefty player has advantage with me because he can find easily my backhand and he knows what my backhand is at the moment,” Del Potro explained. “But anyways, I will try to do my best–to play my best tennis and see if I can do a good match. I have nothing to lose tomorrow. We’ll see what can I do against the King of Clay.”
The fifth seed needed to play three full sets against Cilic on Thursday, so his his tank may not be completely on full for this one. At least for a while, though, that may not terrible thing for Del Potro because he will be forced to implement the correct strategy against Nadal: serve big, hit aggressive second-serve returns, and go for huge, high-risk shots early in rallies.
That may pay off briefly for a red-hot underdog, but a best-of-five situation on clay against Nadal is likely too tough of a task–especially with zero days off.
Pick: Nadal in 4
[polldaddy poll=10025190]
who ya got?
Nadal in five
Nadal as always for RG, 6 more sets to go for 11th crown. No competition.
how are you so confident Fg..if he could drop a set to Schwartz..what makes you think straight set vs both Thiem n Delpo 🙂 I dont care if he drops sets as long as he wins 🙂
there are only few certainties in life. One of the very few is watching Rafa victory on clay, it is kind on 99.999% certainties. The achievement would be impossible to duplicate by another millennium.
This will be close, I’m not seeing anything that says Del Potro can’t win it. I’m sure del Potro was taking notes as his great countryman exposed a chink in Nadal’s armour for a set and a half before being robbed by uncontrollable events. I get the feeling Del Potro would like to make amends for that piece of injustice. You beat an Argentinian once but you dont beat them twice will be Del Potro’s mindset going into this.
Del Potro has backed up many times before in much worse circumstances and has only dropped 2 sets all tournament so he’s had a realitively easy tounament. If anything, the match against Cilic will have prepared him well for this semi, he wont get caught off guard.
I get the feeling Del Potro feels at home in Europe this year as well and we all know what he’s like when he feels comfortable in front of a crowd, and a crowd favorite he is, they love him. He lifts to a level not many other players can stay with. Del potro has been one of the best players all year and Im sure he’d love an RG title to add to his collection so it will be no surpise to see him put a end to Nadal’s dominance at this tournament.
Del Potro in 4.
I want del potro to win, but at this stage, Nadal is better and more fit. So too bad for potro. Potro prob takes a set to tie breaker at best.
If this were Wimbledon or a lower-bouncing Hard court, I would at least consider picking Del Po. But, alas, this is Roland Garros, and you simply DO NOT pick against Rafa at Roland Garros when he’s in his typical form. End of story. I’m with Ricky- Rafa in 4.
I will say, however, that Del Po does have a shot, as he always does against the Big 4. I just don’t think it’s a big enough shot for me to realistically think the upset will happen. Good on Del Po for getting this far at RG again, though!
Del Potro is tall also and will handle Nadal’s high bouncing forehand to his backhand on this surface similar to Soderling. Isner handled it quite well also when he went 5 against Nadal many years ago as well.
If del Potro serves well, handles Nadal’s forehand to his backhand and steps around on the forehand and goes for his shots when the opportunity presents itself, he should be able to put Nadal under pressure on his servicde games. Del Potro should have the advantage on his serve so the formula is quite simple.
Don’t forget del potro considered not even participating in Roland garros due to groin injury. If that injury was to flare up, I think this is the match that it will be a factor.
Rafa in 3…JDP may be tired, and Rafa just too strong.
Potro [is] tired and Rafa [is] too strong.
Rafa..play your best..don’t be nervous..you know when you aggressive the extent of damage you can do and you showed that to Delpo in semis of USO on a court more favorable to him.. Please dont start slow and stay being baseline else Delpo will boss you around totally..dont underestimate Delpo..he is not injured..
Delpo had problem vs Cilic, it’s more like Cilic faltered and allowed Delpo back to win the sets and the match; he will have more problems vs Rafa.
What does a man have to do to earn some respect from bookies and tipsters? Cecchinato is playing like the number one clay courter in the world and has just thrashed 3 top 10 claycourters in a row including a previous RG champion.
I think some people need to jump on youtube and watch the replay because im not seeing any reason he cant do to Theim (who has never won a major) what he’s done to everyone else this tournament.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSQxYi67EJs
Cecchinato in 4
Lol don’t know about #1. But the odds shouldn’t be -1000 for thiem. If it was up to me it should be like -350 to 400.
Wish rafa Delpo was the final! I love Delpo and he has a huge heart so this will be a big test for rafa. Please rafa come out playing aggressive. He said in his presser how he was feeling the nerves yesterday and the pressure on him is so enormous…
Vamos!!!
Rafa in 3, losing way fewer than 13 games.
I’ll just drop this here ;))
Madrid 2018 3R: Nadal def. Schwartzman 6-3 6-4
Madrid 2018 QF: Thiem def. Nadal 7-5 6-3
AO 2018 4R: Nadal def. Schwartzman 6-3 (4)6-7 6-3 6-3
AO 2018 QF: Cilic def. Nadal 3-6 6-3 (5)6-7 6-2 2-0 (ret)
USO 2015 2R: Nadal def. Schwartzman 7-6(5) 6-3 7-5
USO 2015 3R: Fognini def. Nadal 3-6 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4
I’ll drop this here ;))
Monte-Carlo 2017 QF: Nadal def. Schwartzman 6-4 6-4
Monte-Carlo 2017 SF: Nadal def. Goffin 6-3 6-1
Monte-Carlo 2017 Final: Nadal def. ARV 6-1 6-3 to win his
10th Monte-Carlo title!
This article is terrifying for us nadal fans.
http://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/970804/Rafael-Nadal-injury-denial-Diego-Schwartzman-French-Open-Catherine-Whitaker/amp
I am very afraid if this article is true.
So you believe that both wrists got injured simultaneously? That must be a first. Rafa was asked about it at his PM press conference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=EHee5Ns5E1I
That article is nonsense. They said that Rafa had wrist surgery! Since when!
Rafa explained what happened and it should be left at that.
Rafa rules – nope, we aren’t terrified. Rafa explained the situation, and it’s highly unlikely that he injured both wrists.
Nadal in 3. Never understand how a player can tell “I’ll try my best, I’ll see what I can do..” before playing a match. He already lost this game
I’m pretty sure he would express things a bit differently in Spanish. del Potro isn’t injured, and he’s relatively fresh from not having played much of the clay season. And his backhand is a lot better than it was a couple years ago when it was pretty much just slice. I think he’ll be fine.
To gain the advantage in the rallies, del Potro must stretch Nadal to his FH side and (obviously) hit the ball hard. That will mean a lot of inside out and DTL forehands. But Rafa’s lateral movement to his FH is not as good as to his BH, and he needs more time to prepare the FH. Going mainly to his BH crosscourt is not a good strategy, imo, because he’s just too quick and strong, being able to use the extra hand. Nadal’s BH is also much improved on what it was a couple years ago.
Saw a comment on the Guardian which pretty much sums up my view: ‘If it’s hot and dry, Rafa’s your guy. If it’s wet, he may drop a set’.
Delpo’s a great guy, probably one of the most likeable on tour, so I hope for his sake he can make it competitive. It’s going to be difficult though, given Nadal will be able to exploit his BH side a lot on clay, and he’s unlikely to be able to physically go the distance with Rafa if it somehow comes down to that.
It will be sunny today, and Rafa will probably win the match. But I think he might still drop a set. No shame in this against Delpo.
‘If it’s hot and dry, Rafa’s your guy. If it’s wet, he may drop a set’.
Ha, ha, I like that, a lot!!!
Del Potro V Nadal is sold out, whereas theres plenty of tickets for Theim Checch There’s plenty expecting Del Potro to give Nadal a belting today.
When have tickets for Nadal vs A N Other not sold out?
Think people are a bit sick of watching Cecch give a belting to overwhelming favorites. Its getting boring watching pedictors look stupid.
Yeah, the people who only watch tennis in order to plan their betting strategy, and still get it wrong, would be pissed off. How much have you lost so far during this RG?
#Stick to the gee-gees
Delpo will have more supporters in stands in Europe for sure ..his fans are loud too as has been seen in past matches…however rafa will have his share too.
when has lack of support troubled rafa? Fed always had more supporters in stands but it did not affect Rafa in beating him all those multiple times pre 2017 in key matches
http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/moya-takeaways-qf-roland-garros-2018-thursday
Moyas take after the QF match..plainspeak and say it as it is..I am surprised that he said Rafa had some doubts going into Diego match..wonder why..he also says rain bailed him out and he cannot bank on rain to save him 🙂
And that’s the problem with Rafa – lacking in confidence! The whole world knows that Rafa needs to start being aggressive from the get go, only Rafa himself doesn’t know!
I mean Diego is no Djoko, why’s Rafa so worried? Perhaps he’s worried about the match having to drag on and lots of grinding to be done! His past experiences playing Diego might have caused him to worry, unnecessarily imo.
Diego’s weakness is still his serve as he’s limited by his height. He’s also not that good when at the net. His strength is his speed around the court, his fighting spirit, his ability to change directions at will, and his ability to hang in tough in long rallies.
But, Rafa is more powerful, more skillful and more crafty; his aggression when it’s on, is very hard to counter even for his fellow big four members. Rafa seems to worry too much, think too much. He just has to go out there, plays his aggressive game from the get go, just like it’s proven in set three and four in the match, which he’s more than capable of doing so often.
If Rafa continues to worry like that, he’ll keep playing crappy tennis and has to work very hard to come from behind to win his matches. What an insecure human being he is; in the past I don’t believe that but now it’s getting more and more obvious he’s feeling insecure, about his own abilities and doubting that his game is not good enough to keep winning.
I think that the notion that Rafa has been frequently bailed out of precarious situations by a timely onset of rain is wrong. There are many examples where rain has been a set back. And he would’ve played quite differently against Diego if there hadn’t been any rain in the first place, lol!
The truth may be that Rafa is simply able to deal better with a rain delay or a set back than most other players. Maybe, this is ultimately rooted in his early childhood belief that Uncle Toni could make it rain if Rafa would encounter problems during a match.
Well what Moya meant was Rafa needs to go on offense from the start so that he does not need these breaks to sit and analyse what went wrong..thats what he meant by saying he cant bank on rain to save him and reboot him..its now happened twice in 3 weeks..zverev in rome and diego here..both matches he went passive and got bossed for a set
Exactly! And that’s precisely we his fans kept saying all along! Only Rafa refuses to listen and worries about the earth, the whole world is working against him!!
Just went out there and hammered Diego right left and centre! If the weather conditions didn’t favor him, all the more he should stay aggressive and finished the match ASAP instead of letting it dragged on! Why showed Diego so much respect and allowed Diego to boss him, the king of clay around, on the king’s Favorite court at RG?? It’s very embarrassing for the king of clay, and it pissed me off!!
The way he played the first set, it’s just like his Madrid match vs Thiem, when everything went wrong,but, Diego is not Thiem, he doesn’t have Thiem’s power; and, Madrid is not RG!!
Moya, please drill the message deep into Rafa’s Head – just go out there to play aggressively no matter what!
Toni in an interview once, said Rafa overthinks his matches. He thinks too much. I will agree with that.