As expected, Rafael Nadal made mostly routine work of his relatively soft quarter at Roland Garros. That could change during championship weekend, when his path to the title begins with Juan Martin Del Potro and potentially ends with Dominic Thiem.
Nadal and Del Potro will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they clash in the French Open semifinals on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 9-5 in favor of the Spaniard, who has gone up against Del Potro only twice on clay and predictably won both of those meetings (7-5, 6-3, 6-2 at the 2007 French Open and 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6(0) with home-court advantage in the 2011 Davis Cup final). Del Potro had been on a two-match winning streak at Nadal’s expense before falling 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2017 U.S. Open semis.
The Argentine’s second appearance in the Roland Garros semis looked far from a sure thing prior to the beginning of this fortnight, and not just because clay a less favorable surface for him than a hard court. Following a brilliant hard-court stretch with titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells plus a semifinal showing in Miami, Del Potro retired from a Rome third-round match against David Goffin due to a groin injury.
Simply showing up in Paris was in doubt for the 2009 U.S. Open champion, and things did not look good when he dropped his opening set 6-1 to Nicolas Mahut. But it all turned around for Del Potro thereafter, as he made his way through the second section of the bracket by beating Mahut, Julien Benneteau, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, John Isner, and Marin Cilic.
The world No. 6 has dropped two sets (the other to Cilic on Thursday), while Nadal donated his first to Diego Schwartzman early in their quarterfinal on Wednesday. An overnight rain delay allowed the 10-time champion to regroup, and he did just that–roaring back for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 victory. Nadal preceded that results with wins over Simone Bolelli, Guido Pella, Richard Gasquet, and Maximilian Marterer while improving to 24-1 on clay in 2018 and 84-2 lifetime at the French Open.
“He’s lefty and [as I said] before my match against Ramos, a lefty player has advantage with me because he can find easily my backhand and he knows what my backhand is at the moment,” Del Potro explained. “But anyways, I will try to do my best–to play my best tennis and see if I can do a good match. I have nothing to lose tomorrow. We’ll see what can I do against the King of Clay.”
The fifth seed needed to play three full sets against Cilic on Thursday, so his his tank may not be completely on full for this one. At least for a while, though, that may not terrible thing for Del Potro because he will be forced to implement the correct strategy against Nadal: serve big, hit aggressive second-serve returns, and go for huge, high-risk shots early in rallies.
That may pay off briefly for a red-hot underdog, but a best-of-five situation on clay against Nadal is likely too tough of a task–especially with zero days off.
Pick: Nadal in 4
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