French Open QF previews and predictions: Cilic vs. Del Potro, Nadal vs. Schwartzman

It will be a big-hitting affair when Marin Cilic and Juan Martin Del Potro battle for the likely right to meet Rafael Nadal in the French Open semifinals. Nadal, meanwhile, has a quarterfinal contest on his hands against Diego Schwartzman.

(3) Marin Cilic vs. (5) Juan Martin Del Potro

Cilic and Del Potro will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers and for the second time at the French Open when they clash in the quarterfinals on Wednesday. Del Potro is dominating the head-to-head series 10-2, including 4-0 on clay after prevailing 6-3, 7-6(7), 6-1 at Roland Garros in 2012. They have since faced each other three times on hard courts, with Del Potro sweeping all three of those encounters to extend his winning streak against Cilic to seven matches.

Although he is ranked two spots better than the Argentine at No. 4 in the world, Cilic may be hard-pressed to turn the tide on Wednesday. Del Potro is an outstanding 27-7 this season with titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells. The 29-year-old is now through to his third French Open quarterfinal–despite missing the tournament in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016–following mostly routine victories over Nicolas Mahut, Julien Benneteau, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and John Isner. Cilic cruised past James Duckworth, Hubert Hurkacz, and Steve Johnson before getting tested by Fabio Fognini, whom he held off 6-4, 6-1, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-3 in the fourth round. The Croat started off slow on clay earlier this spring, but he paved the way for a solid Roland Garros performance by reaching the Rome semifinals. This likely where Cilic’s run comes to an end, as a red-hot Del Potro has his opponent’s number and is simply in superior form at the moment.

Pick: Del Potro in 4

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(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Diego Schwartzman

Simone Bolelli and Maxmilian Marterer probably could not have brought any better tennis to the table in their respective French Open efforts against Nadal. Still, the 10-time champion did not lose a single set en route to another quarterfinal appearance. In between a 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(9) victory over Bolelli and a 6-3, 6-2, 7-6(4) defeat of Marterer, Nadal trounced Guido Pella and Richard Gasquet while dropping a total of 11 games. The top-ranked Spaniard is now 23-1 on clay in 2018 with titles in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome.

Up next for Nadal on Wednesday is a sixth career contest against Schwartzman, who trails the head-to-head series 5-0 and 12-1 in total sets. Unsurprisingly, both of their previous clay-court encounters went the way of the 16-time Grand Slam champion in routine fashion; 6-4, 6-4 last spring in Monte-Carlo and 6-3, 6-4 this past month in Madrid. Schwartzman has twice been competitive on hard courts, falling 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-5 at the 2015 U.S. Open prior to a 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3 setback at this year’s Australian Open. Schwartzman is 11-2 in his last 13 matches at majors, which is almost as shocking as his Monday win over Kevin Anderson. Although it was just about an even matchup on paper, the 12th-ranked Argentine trailed by two sets and by a break in the third, and he also watched Anderson serve for the match twice before mounting a 1-6, 2-6, 7-5, 7-6(0), 6-2 comeback. As if Schwartzman needed any more odds to be a stacked against him, having spent almost four hours on the court will not help his slim hopes of putting a dent in Nadal’s Paris armor.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games

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21 Comments on French Open QF previews and predictions: Cilic vs. Del Potro, Nadal vs. Schwartzman

  1. Schwartz potentially winning RG if there was no rain delay..haha..did I just read this? How hilarious is that..So rain delays now decide slam winners ..wow..and rafa has incredible power to summon rain gods..or maybe God loves him more than others 🙂 If he has both those powers good for him 🙂

    • No, it’s good ol’ Uncle Toni who can control the rain, lol! Vamos Il Magio!

      Very relieved to see Rafa finish the match in style!

      I’d like to see Delpo in the semis. Don’t like Cilic and Delpo needs a break.

  2. Sanju… as much as I can understand your need to say something
    I wouldn’t bother..
    You’re just adding more wood to the bonfire

  3. Oh boy… I PRAY that the Rafa-Del Po semi is as epic as it has the potential to be! I hope both guys are healthy and that it’s not a straight sets rout. I know all you Rafanatics on here would prefer a routine straight sets win for Rafa (which is very well could be). 🙂 But these guys have had so many great battles, and I hope we get another.

    Del Po came DANGEROUSLY close to making the RG final in 2009, and I probably would have favored him over Soderling in the final. But Fed was just far and away the 2nd best clay courted at that time, so he wasn’t about to miss out on the opportunity to face someone not named Nadal in the final.

    As a side note, I actually realized the other day that that RG title did not come as easily as you would think that year… I had totally forgotten that he was actually on the brink of going out in the 4th round just like Rafa! Haas had him on the ropes and was 2 sets to love up on him! Was he even up a break in the 3rd set or something? I don’t know. But then Fed was on the brink of losing to Del Po in the semis. And only a few months later Del Po became the first guy to beat Fed AND Rafa in the same major en route to the title. If I recall correctly, I think Del Po actually started struggling physically in the 4th or 5th set of that semifinal match? I barely remember watching that match, but I know I watched it.

    I’m not saying that Del Po would have won had he not had physical issues that day, but he certainly would have had a shot. But physical conditioning/fitness/health is such a key part of clay court tennis, especially in Bo5. Fed played quite well, though, and you could see he was desperate to get to the Final again.

    Anyway, even if Rafa destroys Del Po tomorrow, my hope is that Del Po at least doesn’t get affected by physical issues mid-match like in 2009. Whoever loses tomorrow, I hope it’s strictly because they were outplayed by the other guy, and not because of injury or physical issues.

  4. As of now, it looks like there’s no rain in the forecast at least until 4 pm tomorrow in Paris. But there is a little lightning logo next to “Friday”, so I’m confused… Naybe the storms aren’t starting until the evening? I can only see until 4 pm on my app right now… But it looks like there are going to be thunderstorms all weekend long. This could be a year where they have to do a Monday final!

    • The thunderstorm isn’t for a whole day so tennis can still be played. For Fri the forecast is mostly cloudy with a bit of sun and thunderstorm at 7pm; temperatures about 75-78 degrees with humidity at 60+%.

      I hope Thiem’s match doesn’t drag too long so that Rafa/Delpo can start on time or only may be half an hour delay.

  5. Play starts at 1pm

    Marco CECCHINATO (ITA) vs Dominic THIEM (AUT)[7]

    Not before 3.30pm
    Rafael NADAL (ESP) [1] vs Juan Martin DEL POTRO (ARG) [5]

  6. Cloudy skies during the morning hours followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High around 80F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

  7. Again a stupid schedule. Schedule which should have been changed given the weather forecast. French Open is a medieval era Grand Slam.

  8. “After the first rain delay, the match changed a lot because I played more aggressively with high intensity and things were more on my side,” Nadal said.

    “Before it, I was not opening the court with the backhand. I was playing too behind the baseline. He was taking the ball earlier than me.

    “I had the feeling he had control of the point too many times to have the chance to be successful.”

    “I was playing poorly, and my opponent was playing better. You can’t always find the excuses or positive things about the external things,” he said.

    “You have to find causes within yourself. The changes were not the sun or the rain.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/44398392

    • Exactly. The causes were within himself, he’s certainly not going to blame the weather for that as he couldn’t control the weather; unlike some people blaming the rain and the delay for Rafa to get lucky and turned the match around.

  9. Just finished watching Rafa-Diego. Obviously Nadal came out a different player today, and Diego came out flat. So it was a bit of role reversal, and 3rd set was all Rafa. In that last game I thought Diego started to find his groove, and there was some great tennis. Had he been able to break I think it would have given him some confidence that he could actually win. But although he had several chances into the next set, Nadal played the break points against him brilliantly, and almost always came up with a great point. Diego’s miss on the easy overhead was the nail in the coffin, imo. That, and improved Nadal serving, was the difference in the last set. Otherwise they were pretty even from the baseline. Congrats to him on a convincing win against a very tough opponent.

    I thought Nadal was playing great except for his serve, which still is a question mark. He is still the favourite but he is beatable by either Delpo or Theim (haven’t seen enough of Cecchinato to judge).

      • Beatable? Have you watched Delpo vs Cilic? Delpo almost lost sets that might cost him the match had Cilic not choked while serving for the third set. Cilic was also leading in the fourth but got broken back by Delpo when he played some lose points. The way Delpo played, and if he continues to play like that, he’s going to lose to Rafa in straight sets! I would say this Delpo is beatable.

        Diego had his chances at BPs but Rafa was always brilliant saving BPs, even during set one (if not he would’ve lost the set 6-1!). Rafa was brilliant at the net and Diego had no answer even when he got to those drop shots. Rafa simply has a well rounded game, it’s only his serve that’s lagging behind the other parts of his game, but his second serve is still good enough hence he’s still winning his service games more often then not.

        • You said you felt Rafa may lose to Schwartzman early on in the match. Now Rafa is going up against Del Po and you say he isn’t beatable at all? Seems like it just simply irks you for a Fed fan to doubt whether Rafa will win next round (that being said, I believe he wins in five)

          • Benny, the way Rafa played that first set, if he continued playing that way he would lose. Did he continue to play that way? NO, and that’s why he won in the end!

            It has nothing to do with Fed fan or not, even a Rafa fan saying that I would respond in the same way. Please don’t think so highly of you all as Fed fans!

            Do you believe that Rafa playing like the way he did in set three and four of his QF match would lose to Delpo? Have you all not watched Delpo’s match vs Cilic? I watched that match concurrently with the Rafa/Diego match; Delpo was fortunate not to lose the third set; Cilic wasn’t even on fire to start with.

  10. by: STEVE FLINK | June 07, 2018

    “Given that reprieve, drawing on all of his big match experience, remembering who he was and what he has accomplished, today we saw once more the essential Nadal. We witnessed the sport’s all-time-best clay-court player back, much closer to his zenith. He rediscovered his spark. He no longer allowed Schwartzman to be the player who ruled the rallies. He found his range. His shots crackled. His incomparable forehand was on song. His serve—so vulnerable the day before—was delivered with much more impressive power and precision.

    Add it all up, and under the circumstances, there could have been no other result: Nadal surged past a resolute Schwartzman, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, and into the semifinals…………

    “At the beginning yesterday, there were no options to open up the court to win points. Today I moved forward and I had a better backhand. I was able to open the court on his forehand. Yesterday I was not able to do so and I was not gaining ground. When I was able to do that, I was able to win the match.”

    This is not a man with a muddled mind. Nadal’s tactical acuity and intelligence is as extraordinary as his shotmaking skills. His capacity to think his way through difficult matches, to keep probing until he finds solutions, to consider any option, is second to none in this sport.”

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2018/06/rafael-nadal-diego-schwartzman-french-open-2018-quarterfinals/74487/

    • Good article from Steve Flink who is one of my favorite tennis analysts.
      He pointed out something very important: Rafa’s ability to analyse a situation and find solutions may be second to none. Therefore it’s hardly surprising that he comes back stronger when he had some time to think it over.
      Then there is also the question of stamina. While Rafa is still extremely fit, at the age of 32, a break could be an advantage when he plays against younger guys like Zverev or Thiem.

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