French Open final preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

June 9, 2017 Ricky Match previews 490

Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 19th time in their careers when they collide in the French Open final on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 15-3, including 6-1 on clay and 1-0 at Roland Garros. Wawrinka, however, has won three of their last six meetings and he got the best of their only previous Grand Slam title match via a 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 decision at the 2014 Australian Open. The two veterans have not faced each other since last spring, when Nadal cruised through a Monte-Carlo quarterfinal encounter 6-1, 6-4.

The fourth-ranked Spaniard triumphed at Monte-Carlo two months ago for his 10th title there, accomplished the same feat in Barcelona, and he is now bidding for No. 10 on the red clay of Paris. He also triumphed in Madrid. All of that has a resulted in a 23-1 clay-court record in 2017, with his lone blemish coming against Dominic Thiem in the Rome quarterfinals. Nadal avenged that defeat without any trouble on Friday, clobbering the 23-year-old Austrian 6-3, 6-4, 6-0. He preceded that victory by taking out Benoit Paire, Robin Haase, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Pablo Carreno Busta all without dropping a single set.

Three of the four semifinalists were perfect in total sets this fortnight prior to Friday: Nadal, Thiem, and Wawrinka. The third-ranked Swiss rolled over Jozef Kovalik, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Fabio Fognini, Gael Monfils, and Marin Cilic before running into serious trouble against Andy Murray. Wawrinka came within four points of a four-set defeat but eventually survived the longest match of the tournament to date 6-7(6), 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-1 in four hours and 34 minutes. Less than three weeks ago he was just 16-8 overall in 2017, but he is now in the midst of a 10-match winning streak that also includes a clay-court title in Geneva.

“Stan won the last event in Geneva and now he’s in the final here,” Nadal commented. “So he’s [on] a good run. He’s in the final. So it’s the toughest opponent possible here.”

“I think to play Rafa on clay in French Open in a final is probably the biggest challenge you can have in tennis,” Wawrinka countered. “He’s the best player ever on clay. It’s for sure gonna be really difficult. But [at] the end of the day, it’s the final; the pressure is on both players. No one goes on the court thinking he has no pressure. We both want to win the title.”

The 32-year-old has apparently never felt such pressure, as he as a perfect 3-0 lifetime in major finals (2014 Australian Open, 2015 French Open, 2016 U.S. Open). But Nadal also has plenty of numbers going for him: he is 78-2 lifetime at the French Open with nine titles.

“Nine actually is my favorite number,” Nadal admitted after the semis. “But don’t get me wrong–I would prefer 10 over nine, no doubt.”

His preference will likely become reality on Sunday. The former world No. 1 bas been dominant at Roland Garros for more than a decade, has dominated this entire clay-court swing aside from one energy-deprived loss, and is extremely well-rested have lost a mere 29 games this whole tournament.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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54 Comments on French Open final preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nadal

    • It’s been a long road back. But it’s been worth it to have this moment!

      What words can I say about Rafa? He is my hero! What courage and guts to keep in fighting through the darkness into the light!

      Rafa, this is your time! Enjoy it!

      Reply

    • Yeah VR, never in doubt for the 15th Slam and 10th at RG. It’s just amazing come to think of it, what an amazing journey we have together with Rafa!

      I’m so glad that Rafa is 10 for 10 in FO finals, and 1-1 vs Stan in slam finals, and stops Stan’s perfect records in slam finals!

      Reply

      • Haha, I wasn’t being sarcastic, Hawks! I was paying homage to you by using the #NID tag. 🙂 I’m psyched for you, man!

        Reply

        • I know Kevin. No worries!

          There is always some doubt where sport is concerned.

          Picking Fed to win Wimby. Might even place another strategic wager LOL.

          Reply

          • Haha, do it! Yeah, I think that at this point I would bet on Federer to win Wimbledon if I had to make a bet. Although I think it’s too early to truly declare him as THE favorite because he hasn’t played in a while. That is the one downside to his break, which I’m sure he’s aware of- that he runs the risk of losing the momentum that he carried from AO through Miami. He could show up in Stuttgart and Halle and run the table like he used to. OR he could potentially be flat and turn out to have lost that aggressive edge he had. We shall see! Personally, I would love to see Federer conquer Novak again at Wimbledon. I’ve seen Fed kick Murray’s ass at Wimbledon enough. If I had my way, I would have Novak come back to form at Wimbledon, face Fed in the final, and have Fed exact revenge over him in another 5-set epic. After this year’s AO, I decided that I wanted 3 things- 1.) For Rafa to win RG 2.) For Fed to win Wimbledon 3.) To get another Fedal final in the US Open. 1 down, 2 to go!

      • You’re so very welcome, MA! I know that you all had been suffering for three years, just like the Federer fans had been suffering for four and a half years, so I am so happy for you and your fellow Rafa fans. 🙂

        Reply

        • Awww Kev!!…You’re so sweet!Thank u thank u thank u!…It means so much to hear that from u Kev!!…I’m happy too when Rog win AO last January…always admire his greatness,no matter what people said about him…

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        • Tell me about it Kevin!!! I not only suffered, I have been heart-broken!! This is sweet, indeed, but the AO still haunts me to this day!!

          I was hoping they would have given Rafa an honourary trophy together with his Coup for this mind blowing achievement, and mention for sure that they will be building a new stadium in his name!! They should have done a lot more! And yes, I am that ungrateful!!

          Next year, there are two questions that may needed to be asked: who is going to play Rafa in the final, and two, how many games you think he can win? lol!! But i wish Rafa would focus more on the other slams now…..10 is more than enough!!

          Vamos!!!!

          Reply

  7. Congrats my fellow Rafans! This is great and emotional moment for all of us!

    So proud of our Rafa! Love you ❤️

    Reply

  8. This year for the ATP still can’t get much better. Fed and Nadal are the winners of the first two slams and Djokovic is number 4 now. And Stan playing well too. And my man Muller won a title and at a career high too. Only thing that could be better is Murray not being number one. Not a huge fan. I prefer him over Novak though.

    Reply

    • I agree with you, Benny. Having Federer and Nadal dominate the whole first half of the season like the old days is definitely great for the ATP and the fans. I would guess that of all the people around the world who are fans of one specific player, probably 2/3 of them are Fed or Rafa fans, so that means there’s a lot of happy people out there haha! Unless Federer has some sort of catastrophic injury/collapse in the second half of the season, I don’t see any way possible right now for Fedal to not finish the season in the top 2 spots… The main question is how long can it continue? Fed approaching 36 makes it seem unlikely that he could continue his form for too much longer. Rafa is only 31, so I can see him dominating more for a while, unless Novak miraculously finds his way back to 2015/2011 form.

      As far as Fed getting to #1 is concerned, Wimbledon is onviously very important, but his post-Wimbledon results are going to be so key because he is defending 0 points in what has traditionally been his strongest chunk of the season.

      As for Rafa, I know that people have low expectations of him at Wimbledon, but I’m thinking differently… I think that this clay season is going to give him so much confidence going forward that he could potentially surprise people at Wimbledon. I don’t necessarily believe that will happen, but I think he could be more of a threat there than we think. I think that the US series is going to AWESOME! The US Open is the one tournament where all of the Big 4+Stan are legitimate contenders to win it. I can’t wait for that…

      Reply

      • I think we are gonna get some big results from guys like Raonic and Kyrgios during the grass and US hard courts swing. Rafa will probably not have too much grass success but who knows. Roger is my pick for Wimby and I probably can’t make a pick for US Open til I see how everyone is playing. Don’t see why Roger or Rafa can’t win that one either. Would be epic if this year’s slams all went to Fedal. I’m still bullish on Stan winning a slam per year though ? So maybe he defends the US Open crown?

        Reply

        • Also I expect some big runs from Americans and I think Thiem will have a similar situation to last season where he had an amazing clay season but was subpar on hard and grass courts. Zverev I think will have some solid results but probably no masters titles again. I could see Kyrgios taking a hard court masters sometime this season. Perhaps Paris indoors. Seems like a surface he would thrive on. Also Opelka is going to win at least a match at Wimbledon I’m calling it now. I have a feeling about him. I feel he is gonna be much better than Isner. He is probably the young American I am most excited about. Fritz has meanwhile gone 0-2 already this grass season, losing to Whittington round one at the Surbition challenger this week then losing first round of qualifying in Stuttgart (where he took Fed to three last year) with a loss to Chiudinelli. Why in the world did that guy get married and have a kid? Such a moron.

          Reply

      • Could someone remind my why Rafa has been so awful at Wimby again, esp when he had made consecutive finals there for years! I just cannot understand it. And AO, dont know what kind of voodoo magic is it with Rafa and this tournament! He has made more finals there than at the US Open and has won less titles!! Its just incomprehensible!!! Choops!!

        Reply

        • Monalisa…Rafa has been so awful at Wimby these last 4,5 years because of his knees…the ball will bounce so low on grass that he can’t bend his wobble knees to get it…especially in the 1st week when the grass is still thick and full..that’s why many pundits predict that if he can survive the 1st week,he maybe has a chance to go deep..maybe to SF or Final…

          Also Rafa rarely can drive a car because he have to bend his knees and it makes his knees hurt so bad…

          Reply

          • ‘Also Rafa rarely can drive a car because he have to bend his knees and it makes his knees hurt so bad…’are you serious?!!

            Anyway, thanks for responding. I just hope he continues with good health and that he gets to the finals at Wimby, at least this year!!

  9. Ruthless and clinical Nadal, I feel for Stan but there’s nothing he could have done today.
    Legendary is the word.

    Congratulations to all Rafans

    Reply

  10. I’m so glad about Rafa! Greatest champion ever! 🙂
    This year in tennis is just great. I want Nadal – Federer final in Wimbledon again!! That would be huge! 😀

    Reply

  12. I think there’s more to come from Nadal. He’s proved all doubters wrong that said he’s playing style won’t hold up into his 30s, that be would burn out etc.

    He’ll be around for as long as Fed is around.

    Reply

    • Whoaaaa!!! Congrats to our dear Rafa and all the Rafans. Condolences to those who bet big against him. As for the naysayers…:)

      Reply

  17. God damn, how crazy would it be if Fedal went to on win every slam for the next couple years between them and both ended up with 20+ majors haha? I know it’s like a one-in-a-million chance, but who knows?? 🙂

    Reply

    • Another record for Rafa. He has won slams in his teens, 20’s and 30’s! Only the third ma to do it, along with Ken Rosewall and Pete Sampras!

      Reply

  18. I seriously believe that Rafa can end his career with 12+ RG titles… I really think that they should consider changing the name of the surface from “clay court” to “Nadal court”! Instead of saying, “So-and-so is really great on clay”, it should be, “So-and-so is really great on Nadal-dust”… 🙂

    Reply

  19. Guess I couldnt have been anymore wrong. Atleast it wouldnt have made any difference if I went big on Wawrinka to take minimum 1 set, which I would have done anyways if I didnt go for the jackpot. Congrats to Nadal.

    Reply

  20. Some joker was saying Wawrinka would win. When I and be were saying it would be a straight set. Wawrinka has power but only when he is allowed play.

    Never in doubt

    Reply

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