French Open final picks: Nadal vs. Djokovic

A three-team panel previews and picks the men’s championship on Sunday at Roland Garros. Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the undisputed two best players in the world, will face each other in a Grand Slam final for the seventh time in their careers.

The matchup could not be better and the stakes could not be higher. Whoever comes out on top of the 42nd installment of the current best rivalry in tennis will be No. 1 in the world on Monday. If Rafael Nadal wins, he ties Pete Sampras at second on the all-time list with 14 career major titles. If Novak Djokovic prevails, he captures both his first French Open title and the career Grand Slam.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Ricky: I had Nadal triumphing this fortnight from the start–over Djokovic in five in the final–and see no reason to back down now. He handed out a thorough beatdown to Andy Murray in the semis while Djokovic dropped a set to Ernests Gulbis in a less impressive performance. In his last six sets against two of the best players in the world, David Ferrer and Murray, Nadal lost 11 games. Eleven. That’s an average score of 6-1.8 for those counting. Djokovic just beat Nadal in Rome, but facing Nadal in a best-of-three on clay is basically a different sport than facing him in a best-of-five on the red stuff (Ferrer upset Nadal in Monte-Carlo then look what happened to him on Wednesday). The latter may be the most difficult task in sports, right up there with a horse attempting to finish off the last leg of the Triple Crown (we’ll see in the span of 18 hours this weekend which one is tougher). Nadal is 65-1 lifetime at Roland Garros. With a ridiculous record like that, until he actually loses fair and square at this event (the one blemish was injury-plagued), I don’t see how you can expect him to do so in any particular match. The top-ranked Spaniard is 5-0 lifetime against Djokovic at the French Open and 14-3 in total sets. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3.

Steen Kirby of Tennis East Coast: The final I and almost everyone else predicted has come to fruition as Djokovic will face Nadal to decide the world No. 1 ranking along with the French Open title. Djokovic is looking for his first Roland Garros title, having lost one previous final in 2009, while Nadal is looking for his ninth triumph at this event. All that being said, though, the present favors Djokovic even if history clearly favors Nadal. The  Serb beat Nadal in Rome in their only clay meeting this year and he also won the other 2014 head-to-head meeting in Miami. They have both more or less blown through all comers en route to the final, without needing a decisive fifth set in six matches apiece. Djokovic has been the better player this year and throughout this clay season. It’s time for him to earn his No. 1 ranking back and I just feel for once this isn’t Nadal’s year to win the French. Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3.

Joey Hanf of The Tennis Nerds: As the fortnight progressed, it almost seemed inevitable that we would get the final that everyone wanted. Neither Nadal nor Djokovic was ever really pushed in the tournament, with each player losing no more than one set in any of his matches. But we did learn things about their respective levels of play, confidence, and fitness. Before the French Open started, I firmly believed Djokovic was the smart pick. However, Nadal–especially in his last two matches–has looked scary good. Like…as good as I’ve ever seen him play. Although Murray played a lackluster match, Nadal made him look like an average player. Any questions about the Spaniard’s back should be gone, because it’s just fine. Meanwhile, Djokovic looked very strong for his first five matches but he showed signs of physical and mental vulnerability against Gulbis in the semifinals. The forecast is for rain starting around 6 p.m. Paris time and Djokovic should be praying that it comes earlier, because I really don’t see Nadal getting beat if it’s hot and sunny. Nadal 6-3, 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-4.

Jared Pine of the Second Serb: The two best tennis players in the world right now are colliding in the Roland Garros final. The pair met just three weeks ago for the 41st time, with Djokovic beating Nadal on the court that–of the major clay events–most closely resembles the clay in Paris. It was a match that Djokovic won fairly comfortably to snag the Rome title despite not producing his best tennis. The world No. 2 let leads in several games slip away but still won 92 points compared to 73 for his opponent. The forecast on Sunday is for damp and heavy conditions, which will favor Djokovic. If this were a match of purely X’s and O’s, Nadal wouldn’t have a shot. But the pressure on Djokovic to complete the career Grand Slam and Nadal’s record at Roland Garros are going to be factors. Djokovic has admitted to struggling in big moments lately. He can’t let that be the case on Sunday. Djokovic 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-2.

Hasan Murad: Djokovic comes into this final as only the sixth man in the Open Era to reach multiple finals of all Grand Slams. The Serb is now becoming the epitome of consistency in Grand Slam play, but the challenge awaiting him on Sunday is incomparable to any other. Nadal grows a foot taller as he enters the French Open. This year’s performance has not been any different so far. The Spaniard has converted 65 percent of break points, which is about 20 percent better than his career average. Historically, he has saved his best tennis for the final stages, and the fact that he has saved 75 percent of break points in eight Roland Garros finals speaks volume about his resistance. Djokovic was awfully close to beating Nadal in last year’s semifinal, so he clearly knows the winning patterns. Defending his second serve against the world’s best returner is perhaps the King of Clay’s biggest challenge, and winning only 43 percent of second-serve points in the Rome final is the latest evidence of that. In the wake of four successive wins over Nadal, Djokovic has the momentum in their rivalry. But Nadal has the advantage of better form, as he ramped up all aspects of his game in his semifinal masterclass. The fickle weather will be the ‘X-factor,’ and Nadal’s ruthless dismissal of Murray leaves no doubts as to which man will benefit from dry conditions. The world No. 2 will be playing his 10th major final since the start of 2011 (13th overall), while the world No. 1 will be contesting his 20th overall. Djokovic always raises his level against Nadal, but in a French Open final it’s the case of ‘until-proven-otherwise’…. Nadal 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5.

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32 Comments on French Open final picks: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Hehehe! Did anyone else see this: apparently they gave Novak the wrong plate and then asked for it back!

    http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/06/novak-djokovic-french-open-trophy

    Novak Djokovic was given the wrong trophy at the French Open

    “As if Novak Djokovic’s Sunday wasn’t going bad enough.

    After the world No. 2 was halted in his quest to earn a career Grand Slam (in a match in which he teasingly won the first set, vomited on the court and double-faulted on match point after some fool in the crowd loudly shouted), Djokovic was accidentally handed the wrong runner-up trophy in a post-match presentation.

    As noted by L’Equipe, Djokovic was called to the podium during the celebration and awarded a circular plate. Djokovic held onto the plate while Nadal was presented with the winner’s trophy Djokovic truly wanted.

    But at some point during the presentation, Djokovic was approached and asked to exchange his dish for a platter.

    The platter had been handed to Maria, the chair umpire, prior to Djokovic getting his award. It seems that Maria got Djokovic’s award and Djokovic was given Maria’s.

    It’s bad enough that losing tennis players are forced to stay on the court and accept an award they don’t want after losing a Grand Slam final. But politely tapping a loser on the shoulder and saying, “uh, Novak, we accidentally gave the trophy you’re probably going to throw away to a guy who sat in a chair for the three-and-a-half-hour match,” is just adding insult to injury.”

  2. Just want to point out that an earlier comment about the innappropietness of tallying slams whilst the dust still hadn’t cleared off the court was solely an expressed frustration at reading all the headlines, especially form the Spanish press, and not any sort of accusation as to how anybody is allowed to express their happiness on this site.

  3. @Shireling,

    I appreciate the clarification. I was just not sure to whom you were addresing that comment. I didn’t know anything about the headlines or the Spanish press. I expressed my wish for Rafa to win Wimbledon again. It doesn’t have to be this year, maybe next year. I want him to keep on winning and enjoy his tennis and stay healthy.

    I was just confused by what you wrote. There’s no problem whatsoever.

    Thanks! 🙂

    • ^^^^^ Shirling: poor NNY still has a bad hangover from the TT days when she was mauled on a regular bases. She is still looking over her shoulder and under the bed for marauders creeping up to launch an attack on her,

  4. Dear rafans and others,
    Imagine something that is easy to imagine for it was far more likely to have happened than what did. Which is that Rafa had not suffered a bad back at the worst time at the final in AO. Perhaps in good part if he had not inadvertantly broken open that blister on his hand and then had to change his grip. At any rate, if there had been no bad back in that final or the subsequent weeks…

    We KNOW who would have won the match with Wawa. And Rafa would not be plagued by concerns for his back, less training before tournaments and lowered confidence in the following months.

    But for that bad luck with the back (blister?) he would have had a double career slam, 15 slams, more claycourt titles (more at this point already than Vilas), much more confidence at the RG that just ended and more confidence to complete the Rafa slam with one more slam in a row.

    OK. That’s off my chest now :-).

    All the same, it IS fantastic that he completed a Ninth RG, no matter the circumstances. In the long run perhaps even more valuable than the double career slam, which may still happen. I know, GREEDY I am.

    The way these last months played out was that they were, again, not boring, and that Rafa delivered more inspiration in how to cope with everything that is thrown at you.

    I think I will remember this RG final more than most of his RG fnals. Including the sound their rackets were making.

    • The reason Rafa feels so much more emotional about every win at RG than any other tournament is quite simple. It was where it all began for him in 2005. He had missed most of the clay season the year before following a stress fracture in his left ankle. A genetic malformation of the foot was discovered and for some months there was doubt whether he would be able to play tennis at a professional level. He described this period as the darkest moment in his life.

      He emerged from that crisis and his meteoric rise to the top of the game truly began when he lifted his first Slam trophy at Roland Garros two days after his 19th birthday.

      Every year since then we have seen him fight tooth and nail – with a greater level of intensity and often in severe pain – to repeat that performance.

      • A wise old lady once advised me “It’s not the stupid things you do in life that you’ll live to regret: it will be the things you didn’t do when you had the opportunity.”

        I wish now I had remortgaged my house to buy tickets for the SF and Final but, as someone said, the sheer enormity of what Rafa achieved is only just dawning on us.

        #20/20Hindsight

    • Chloro says: June 10, 2014 at 2:36 am

      Oh my God, there are so many Slams “that got away” that if we totted them up, Rafa would have surpassed Fed by now and then some. But the same applies to his rivals as well.

      Rafa’s Slams have all been hard fought, none came easy. The only one I could maybe put in the easy column (no disrespect to Berdy) was his 2nd Wimby. This makes each and every Slam special and makes Rafa’s legend even bigger.

      My hope for him now is:
      1. To manage his body better, so he can at least play at a high level with minimum pain;
      2. To focus on the Slams, even at the expense of the #1 ranking.

      • To your list I want to add Rio de Janeiro!
        I need hardly add – and to see him bite on the Gold.
        It’s not an impossible dream but that’s being greedy, no?

  5. Rafa already philosophical to the core..already predicting generation shift. Cmon Rafa, not till you complete your double career slam.

    This year is emotional for different reasons,” said Nadal after his record-setting fifth consecutive French Open title.

    “I am 28, it’s not forever. I want to enjoy the moment because I have worked so hard to be here. I will have a few more opportunities but you don’t know if I will ever win it again.”

    Nadal’s introspection was an echo of his feelings after his second round win over Austrian hot-shot Dominic Thiem, the 20-year-old widely expected to be a title threat in Paris in 12 months’ time.

    “Our generation is on the way out. We have all been here for a long while. It’s normal. A generation is walking away and others will replace us. It will not come overnight, but it will come,” said Nadal.

    He admitted that fatigue was a huge factor in Sunday’s French Open final where he beat Djokovic 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4.

    If he had not won the second set, he felt that “I don’t know if I would have this trophy with me now”.

    Even Toni Nadal, his uncle and coach since boyhood, believes lifting a 10th French Open may be beyond even the famed super powers of his nephew.

    “What I hope now for him is to win it for a 10th time,” said Toni. “But I know that it will be more and more difficult, even almost impossible. Each year the chances of victory are reduced. Next year, we will arrive with the fear of losing, telling ourselves it’ll be really hard.”

    • “What I hope now for him is to win it for a 10th time,” said Toni.

      I am so glad Uncle Toni said this. Team Rafa is not resting on its laurels, they want more, so do we his fans!

      I am reminded of that line in the Godfather II when Michael Corleone’s sister says to him, “Now they will fear you”. Regardless of Rafa’s performance leading up to RG 2015 you can be sure of one thing, when he arrives at RG in 2015, they will fear him.

      Vamos Team Rafa!

  6. @Sanju 5:53am
    Therein lies the greatest difference between Rafa and his rivals. Federer and Djokovic exude an air of entitlement each time they step onto court and then look slightly aggrieved when they have lost. Rafa comes out knowing he could lose to anybody, is thrilled if he wins but is philosophical if he loses.

    • ^^^

      “……………is thrilled if he wins but is philosophical if he loses.”

      This is why, to me, when Rafa loses and he says,” it is what it is”, it is genuine because he held out the possibility of losing right from the get go. On Sunday, I found Djoker’s, “it is what it is” contrived and hard to believe as I know he never contemplated losing, especially with everybody telling him he was the favourite!

    • It’s a shame the schedule does not allow Rafa to truly celebrate his historic achievement. Rafa already surpassed Federer last year when he won his 8th RG (compared to 7 Wimbies for Fed) but it is only this year, when he has snagged his 9th, that people are truly realizing what he has done.

      I am so hoping, praying his knees do not betray him this grass season, the draw pits him against Muzza…………………oh I can dream!!

    • Will a men’s event follow do you think?
      I have this mental image of a distinguished white-haired Rafa presenting the prizes and then taking part in the veterans’ matches 🙂

  7. Nadal’s doctor [Eduardo Anitua] : “Nadal is physically ok”

    Rafa Nadal passed physical examination after the titanic effort Sunday in the final of Roland Garros against Djokovic. Eduardo Anitua, personal friend and physician [?] tennis, visited him. Anitua was the CREATOR of plasma, that comes infiltrating on Nadal’s knees.

    The doctor has spoken about the current physical and mental state of Nadal, saying that the main reason why Nadal mantain an optimal mental and physical level, is the family.
    “An athlete of elite as Nadal, need a clear balance between body and mind. The people see a final of Roland Garros as a physical fatigue, but many people don’t see the mental aspect, not only for the final, but even for the previous round. Rafa, as many athletes, lives permanently in competition. If he would not a trained and structured mind, he would lead to exhaustion. For me, the most important thing is that Rafa is not an example only when he wins, but a person who faces the difficult times with no bad gestures, even on the court. I think Rafa is a landmark, because his behavior is exemplary, in the victory and in the defeat. Rafa has won on Sunday not only for his tennis, but even for his behavior. I guess Nadal will play for a long time, but the most important thing is that when he’ll retire, will still be present as an example to emulate.”

    Nadal’ll play in Halle this week. “I’ve not said to him if play or not in Halle. The only recommendation I can give is to enjoy and enjoy, always. Rafa has spoken with his team, and then has decided to play there.” ¤¤
    http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1s236nh

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