Queen’s Club and Halle previews and predictions

When the entire grass-court season lasts four weeks, including just two prior to Wimbledon, there is no time for rest—not even after a Grand Slam. Among those getting right back in action following the French Open are Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray. Nadal and Federer headline the Gerry Weber Open as the top two seeds, while Murray is looking to defend his Aegon Championships title at Queen’s Club.

AEGON Championships

Where: London, England
Surface: Grass
Prize money: 711,010 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Stanislas Wawrinka
Defending champion: Andy Murray

Draw analysis:As usual, Queen’s Club is one of the most loaded 250-point events of the season. The bracket is tough up and down the line, but Murray may have found himself in a slightly more difficult half. It’s a half that also plays host to Roland Garros quarterfinalist Tomas Berdych and semifinalist Ernests Gulbis, although Murray could only face one or the other—not both, as Berdych and Gulbis are in the same quarter. Gulbis, who destroyed the Czech to reach the last four in Paris, may first have to get past either Feliciano Lopez or Lleyton Hewitt. Murray’s path to the semis is likely to include Paul-Henri Mathieu, Radek Stepanek, and either Kevin Anderson or Jurgen Melzer.

Australian Open champion Stanislas Wawrinka is the No. 1 seed, but he has cooled off dramatically since a scorching-hot start to the season. Wawrinka is never at his best on grass, so there is reason to think he will not right the ship until the U.S. Open Series. If that’s the case, guys in his quarter like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marin Cilic, and Jeremy Chardy may be able to capitalize. Don’t count Tsonga out of digging his way out of a slump of his own by keeping points short on grass, while Cilic has been to the final of this event each of the past two years (won famously by David Nalbandian default in 2012, then lost to Murray in 2013). The second quarter of the bracket may be the weakest. Look for either Grigor Dimitrov or Dmitry Tursunov to take advantage, although Nicolas Mahut cannot be discounted on grass and Alexandr Dolgopolov has been known to produce hot streaks from out of nowhere.

First-round upset alert: Sam Querrey over (14) Jeremy Chardy. It probably won’t happen, but Querrey will at least have a chance on grass. The 6’6’’ American has played this event six straight years and has not lost prior to the third round since his 2008 debut. He won the title in 2010 and reached the semis in 2012. Querrey also reached the last 16 at Wimbledon in 2010 and beat Milos Raonic at the All-England Club in 2012 before losing a five-set marathon in the third round to Cilic. Still, current form suggests Chardy should be able to hold him off.

Hot: Ernests Gulbis, Dominic Thiem, Blaz Rola

Cold: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Vasek Pospisil, Marcos Baghdatis, Matthew Ebden, Benoit Paire, Bernard Tomic, Somdev Devvarman

Quarterfinal predictions: Marin Cilic over Jeremy Chardy, Grigor Dimitrov over Dmitry Tursunov, Andy Murray over Jurgen Melzer, and Tomas Berdych over Feliciano Lopez

Semifinals: Cilic over Dimitrov and Murray over Berdych

Final: Murray over Cilic

[polldaddy poll=8108070]

Gerry Weber Open

Where: Halle, Germany
Surface: Grass
Prize money: 711,010 Euros
Points:250

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis:Nadal won the Queen’s Club title in 2008 but otherwise has never made it past the quarterfinals in six additional appearances in the week following the French Open (Halle and Queen’s Club combined). His lifetime match record in Halle is a mere 1-2 and if he wants to end the trend of unsuccessful post-Roland Garros tournaments, the draw certainly did not help him out in those efforts. Raonic, as opposed to fellow top four seed Kei Nishikori, is in Nadal’s half. Philipp Kohlschreiber, who ousted Nadal in the 2012 Halle quarterfinals, is once again in Nadal’s quarter. So, too, is Jerzy Janowicz. The Pole showed signs of life at the French Open and is far better on grass, having reached the Wimbledon semis last summer. It’s almost more difficult to see Raonic losing prior to the semis, because his nearest seed is a less-than-100 percent Richard Gasquet.

Unlike Nadal, Federer has thrived at what is basically a home event for him. The 32-year-old Swiss is 43-5 lifetime in Halle with six titles, including last season. He has not lost prior to the final in any of his last eight appearances. His chances of reaching another title match improved when Raonic landed on the other side of the bracket, but another final berth is not a foregone conclusion. Potential quarterfinal opponents include Mikhail Youzhny (in what would be a rematch of last year’s final) and Ivo Karlovic, who is always dangerous—especially on grass. If Federer reaches the semis, his adversary will come from the most wide open section of the draw. Nishikori and Tommy Haas are injury question marks and Gael Monfils, also no stranger to physical problems, is coming off a roller-coaster of a Roland Garros campaign.

First-round upset alert: Robin Haase over (5) Richard Gasquet. Karlovic over Youzhny is obviously a distinct possibility, but based on surface and current form that cannot even be considered an upset. Because of a back injury, Gasquet said he would not have played last fortnight if it had not been a Grand Slam. The Frenchman persevered through two matches before getting blown out by Fernando Verdasco. If Haase wins, it will likely have almost everything to do with Gasquet not yet being ready for primetime. The Dutchman, who generally fares better on clay and hard courts, has not done anything on grass since reaching the Wimbledon third round in 2011.

Hot: Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Ivo Karlovic, Jan-Lennard Struff

Cold: Richard Gasquet, Tommy Haas, Jerzy Janowicz, Alejandro Falla

Quarterfinal predictions: Philipp Kohlschreiber over Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic over Richard Gasquet, Kei Nishikori over Tommy Haas, and Roger Federer over Ivo Karlovic

Semifinals: Raonic over Kohlschreiber and Federer over Nishikori

Final: Federer over Raonic

[polldaddy poll=8108068]

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!