(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (7) Andy Murray
Ricky: The good news for Murray is that he played Nadal tough in a recent Rome three-setter, he seems to be well past his back-surgery issues, and he is playing the best clay-court tennis of his career (this is just his second-ever French Open semifinal). Unfortunately, that standard was still barely good enough to survive five-setters against Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gael Monfils. Nadal is not at his dominant best, but he has plenty of momentum after pulverizing Ferrer in the last three sets of their four-set quarterfinal. Since Murray won their first Grand Slam semifinal at the 2008 U.S. Open, Nadal has won four such meetings in a row–and none of those four meetings were particularly competitive. Nadal is simply far better than Murray at this point in majors, especially at Roland Garros. Don’t be surprised if this is a beatdown of the highest order. Nadal 6-4, 6-4, 6-1.
Steen Kirby of Tennis East Coast: Nadal just beat Murray in Rome, but it took him three sets. The Spaniard has won all five previous meetings on clay and he leads the overall head-to-head series 14-5. Murray has a had a great fortnight to reach the semifinals and it’s clear he is finally improving from back-surgery recovery time, but this is Nadal on red clay at the French and a back issue of his own has seemed better the past two matches. Murray is coming off two five-set matches, so I think this is the end for him…and in routine fashion. Nadal 7-5, 6-4, 6-2.
Joey Hanf of The Tennis Nerds: At one point Wednesday, with the sun fading in Paris, it seemed like both Murray and Nadal might have play their respective quarterfinals over two days. However, both men finished their matches in time and they were both rather bizarre contests. Nadal faced his first test of the tournament against Ferrer and after dropping the first set, he quickly found his best form and lost only five games in the next three sets. Murray played one of the craziest matches of the year, winning the first two sets against Monfils before dropping the next two. He then bageled the Frenchman in the fifth. The Nadal-Murray “rivalry” isn’t exactly a rivalry, but Murray has had some big Grand Slam wins over Nadal. He has beaten Nadal at the Australian and U.S. Opens, but clearly the Spaniard is different animal at Roland Garros. I haven’t seen Murray hit his forehand as well as he is now since Wimbledon last year, so I think he will push the favorite. But greatest clay-courter of all time simply does not lose in the semifinals. Nadal 4-6, 6-2, 5-7, 6-4, 6-1.
Jared Pine of the Second Serb: Tennis fans had to wait almost three years for this rivalry to be renewed a couple weeks ago in Rome, and it was worth the wait. Nadal came back from a break down in the deciding set to win 7-5 in the third. Now the two are meeting in the semifinals, the same round in which 11 of their 19 previous meeting have taken place, including seven in a row. Both players struggled at times in their quarterfinals but finished strong to advance, and will be relatively well-rested for their semifinal. This has always been a bad matchup for Murray and it is only worse on clay. Nadal should have no real problem getting to his ninth French Open final. Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.
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(18) Ernests Gulbis vs. (2) Novak Djokovic
Ricky: This is going to be an intriguing battle between Gulbis’ offense and Djokovic’s defense. Djokovic, of course, is not a strictly defensive player, but Gulbis has never been more confident and he will come out swinging freely and will not let up regardless of the score. That tactic, combined with the fact that the Latvian is playing by far the best tennis of his life, will keep him competitive for a while. However, this is Gulbis’ first trip to a major semifinal. Djokovic, on the other hand, has slam semis for breakfast and he even has six Grand Slam titles. Experience will be factor, as will Djokovic’s superior ability to that of–say, Roger Federer, Tomas Berdych, and just about anyone–to make Gulbis hit extra balls to finish points. Djokovic 7-6, 6-3, 6-3.
Steen: Gulbis and Djokovic have not met in three years. Gulbis has never taken a set off the Serb in in his four losses to him, but he does have a lone win in 2009 on a hard court. Gulbis is on an amazing run and has enjoyed a fantastic past couple of weeks, having now made himself a Top 10 player. Djokovic, though, is also on a long winning streak and has dropped just one set in his five matches this fortnight. Gulbis thrashed Berdych in the quarters, but Djokovic is at a different level. Again, my pick is the higher seed and favorite in straight sets. Djokovic 7-6, 6-4, 6-1.
Joey: One of my favorite quotes of the year was Gulbis saying that he has chosen to go on the “gluten-full” diet. Of course, his semifinal opponent is famous for his gluten-free diet and if you think Gulbis’ statement was just a coincidence, think again. He was taking a little jab at Djokovic and it will be interesting to see how the match plays out. Gulbis has been serving very well all tournament and his movement has been Djokovic-like. However, the world No. 2’s motivation to complete the career Grand Slam may be greater than Gulbis’ motivation to be world No. 1, and that’s saying something. The Latvian always says nothing short of winning the tournament is a success, but I sensed a level of relief from him after his quarterfinal crushing of Berdych. The tipping shot in this match will be Djokovic’s backhand down the line, which will feed right into Gulbis’ weakness, the forehand. Gulbis will certainly not tank like some have in this tournament, but Djokovic will be too good in a best-of-five match. Djokovic 4-6, 7-5, 6-2, 7-6.
Jared: To say this is a dream semifinal would be a stretch since these two could have just as easily met in the first week in Paris. However, a match featuring two of the best two-handed backhands in the game right now is not the only thing that makes this a mouth-watering semifinal. This is a matchup of brute force and elastic defense between two friends, who even share a little bit of history at this event. Prior to this semifinal, Gulbis’ best result at a slam was the quarterfinals at Roland Garros in 2008, when he lost in three competitive sets to none other than the Serb. Djokovic has been a part of many thrilling semifinals at majors and this should be another one. Djokovic 4-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5.
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Doesn’t Ricky and his merry band pundits do a Finals prediction? After all, Vegas has changed its mind and has Rafa as a slight favourite now, has the Rickster changed his mind per chance??
^^merry band of pundits………..
Gosh, at least @nats has a good excuse for the typos and grammatical errors, her blooming phone has a mind of its own! For me its just me fat fingers……..sigh
Weather Bulletin
Impossible to say what it will be like 24hours from now. The official forecasts are going up and down like a blooming yo-yo. We’ve had one violent but short lived thunderstorm and are now in sunshine with hazy cloud in spite of the map showing continuous rain until midnight in my area. RG is still sunny.
#TakeYourPick
Watch ESPN change their minds
http://espn.go.com/tennis/french14/story/_/id/11041973/french-open-rafael-nadal-rolls-andy-murray-set-final-novak-djokovic
Fed will be kicking himself that he let Gulbis et away with that match he would have taken a half baked Nole out in the S. final.
fed couldn’t take out Gulbis.. how on earth was he going to get better of Nole. His level fluctuates too much in a best of 5.
I disagree…if Fed had beaten Gulbis he would have dealt with Nole easily…Nole was not playing well in the semis and Fed would have gotten the better of him…trust me on this…Nole and his fans still fear Fed the most…
well, I for once would accept that Nole is most tentative against Fed. But Fed’s game was hardly up to the scratch. He would have troubled Nole, but I think Nole would have won in 4 or 5 sets!
I also believe Fed would have dispatched the Novak of the semis. Fed handles different weather conditions very well and would have capitalized on Novak’s obvious discomfort.
I believe Rafa is going to win. I believe he has played Novak enough to know how to play him and this is the RG final, its his favourite place where he has grown in confidence. Rafa will be OK, except for a few hickups as usual, but he Will come out victorious!
By the way, Shriekova is taking so long to serve and is yet to be given a warning!
After losing the 2nd set Shrieki left the court for what seemed like an inordinately long bathroom break.
#Gameswomanship?
Which would seem to have worked. Simona promptly loses her opening service game.
Shrieki has nothing on this guy. See how the arm-wrist-hand bandage has suddenly made an appearance? And he takes a picture to publicise the fact?
https://twitter.com/DjokerNole/status/475300649266335744/photo/1
Ricky, un-moderate my Djoko pic. I want @ed251137 to see it…………
@ed251137, I posted the same pic on the new Finals thread, check it out…
done
rafaisthebest (at 3:45 pm),
Question is: what is THEIR next move???
Thanks Ricky!
@augusta, they have already made their move: try to lull Rafa into a false sense of security by sending out the signal that Djokovic is injured………….
Can he not see how transparent he is? Note Boris has been back for a top up hair transplant treatment and had the colour redone 😀
Look at how Djoko pointedly touches the bandage, just in case you miss it…………… 😉
Such posers!
Another move
https://twitter.com/LuisGatTWI/status/474969614183845888/photo/1
Don’t be so cynical ritb. Don’t you realise how strenuous it is on the arm moving chess pieces around the board.
Oh, alright @ed251137, how in heaven’s name is he going to wield a tennis racquet for at least 2 hours on his date with destiny? Poor mite……….. 😉
Sharapova!!! 🙂 What a player!!
Barry Glendenning of The Guardian was of the same opinion
“The deciding set has yet to begin, as Maria Sharapova has left the court for a break of some description.She’s been gone so long that Simona Halep has asked umpire Kader Nouni to send out a search party. She’s nothing if not crafty, Ms Sharapova – leaving her inexperienced opponent to stew in the Paris heat and think about what’s she’s done and how much she has left to do.”
God I hope Rafa just pays no attention to Novak at all and what hes upto. Just focus on yourself Rafa .
In the pic Djoko looks a bit off. Im sure he is putting on an act 🙂
Do you honestly believe that Rafa pays attention to Noble’s extra curricula activities? Who cares?!!
I clearly remember in AO 2012 final, Novak tricked him into believing that he was gassed and ran out of steam. Remember the falling flat on the ground after a monstrous rally?
Rafa won’t be fooled by any games from Novak. He’s far too smart for that! Nobody can get to Rafa in his house! I don’t think Rafa is paying any attention to what Novak is doing.
Rafa will be focusing on his preparation and nothing else. Our boy has got his head on straight! 🙂
I wanted Sharapova to win just so that motor mouth Rusedski would be proved wrong. And wrong he is.
I like Halep and I wanted her to win but unfortunately she was Tiggy’s pick, who also picked Novak so sorry, but am happy one of Tiggy’s picks lost! I hope this trend continues……………
She has the essential ability to raise her game when her back is against the wall. That’s why she is winner of multiple slams and has been No.1 and will be again.
But there needs to be a penalty for breaking the sound barrier and for taking like 5 minutes to serve.
How come she got just 1 time violation all match today?
One rule for the women. Another for the men. 🙁
ed251137 ( at 4:41 pm)
Because Federer was the president of the ATP Player Council, not WTA.
Federer called Djokerout so I’m sure everyone is aware of his gamesmanship. You can’t fool all of the people all of the time.
So, Sharapova is the Fed of the WTA: takes advantage of the favourite’s ouster to win at RG!
Tennis matches are impossible to call among equals so all these predictions are more to do with who people WANT to win as opposed to who they THINK will win. Everyone picks and chooses the stats and facts that back up what they want to happen.
Wilansky picked Djokovic in the ESP experts picks before RG began:
http://espn.go.com/sports/tennis/picks
He has changed his mind, he is now tipping Rafa:
Wilansky: My prediction: Nadal in four.
http://espn.go.com/tennis/french14/story/_/id/11046887/french-open-novak-djokovic-chances-rafael-nadal
Weather forecast for Paris in next 18 hours:
Sunny before 4 PM. Partly cloudy between 4 PM and 7 PM. Scattered Thunderstorm after 7 PM.
When does the Final begin in local time?
3 PM in Paris
Thanks Ricky. So it will be sunny when they start and partly cloudy for much of the match. Hopefully, it will be over before any thunderstorm arrives after 7PM. That’s a 4-hour window.
prob good for Rafa
Here is the forecast on weather.com. I have found its hourly forecast be very accurate:
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/Paris+FRXX0076:1:FR?pagenum=2&nextbeginIndex=6
JCK: Hourly forecasts are all well and good. But they are updated on an hourly basis so you have to recheck on an hourly basis.
weather.com’s hourly forecast has been pretty good. I rely on it on my photography outings. I just checked. The forecast hasn’t changed.
even the chances of rain at 7pm are 40% ! that’s as per weather.com
According to ACCU weather, it could rain ! 47% chances of rain at 3pm and 51% AT 4PM. I HOPE AND PRAY THERE IS NO RAIN .
http://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/paris/623/hourly-weather-forecast/623?hour=33
Thinking about the length of the delay before Novak turned up for the press conference (it seems a bit long, even after suffering some weakness, apparently, due to partial dehydration), and the statements he made to the press, the picture with the bandaged wrist and then practicing without the bandage…. it seems that Novak is really quite nervous about the final. In fact fairly publicly more nervous than usual. And Rafa probably nervous too up to a point but not unusually so.
It could be that Nole will start playing nervously (and Rafa too). It could be that Nole will start out with lots of fire, trying to get the first set and not look back. The one thing I don’t expect is for Nadal to be overly affected by nervousness etc. There will be nervous play for both, sure. But I expect Rafa’s usual prowess on this surface, out of 5, on Chartier to come through as they always do in the last matches at RG. I don’t expect Roger to cave in, even if Rafa plays a level higher for most of the games. A hard fought 4 set win for Rafa. Or a somewhat less hard fought 4 set win for Rafa.
Your summary matches my train of thought. The bottom line is Djokovic has MORE at stake than Rafa. Thus he has MORE stress to deal with. He has only managed to overcome this level of stress once before and that was Wimby 2011. On that occasion he was helped on his way by a Rafa struggling with a recurrence of a foot problem which had nearly put paid to his career in 2004.
Rafa has already proved he has conquered the demons that plagued him earlier in the clay season. He is fully aware that it’s Djokovic who faces the greater mental battle.
I don’t know what to make of that photo with the bandage around Novak’s arm. I also don’t know if anything should be made of him being late to his post match press conference. There are times when players can get a bit dehydrated in some warmer conditions. But that doesn’t mean that they won’t be fine after a day’s rest. That’s the key here. Players have a day off before they meet in the final.
Whether this is a sign that Novak is nervous, I guess it’s possible. I have never been able to read him. I think that being the favorite to win RG after he beat Rafa in Rome, might have put that pressure on him. It’s something that Rafa has had to deal with every year. But this time Novak got much more attention, with many so-called experts picking him to break through and beat Rafa for the title. That kind of attention does bring a price. We know that Rafa never liked being the favorite. He has always tried to deflect it in interviews at RG. I think Rafa’s ability to handle the unique pressure of someone who has an unmatchable record at RG. is another quality that makes him special.
It is true that Rafa has nothing to prove now at RG. His record here will probably never be equalled. It’s interesting that each time he is in a slam final, he’s chasing history. It makes me feel better to think that maybe this time Novak has more stress.
I meant to say I don’t expect Novak to cave in, (where I wrote Roger) late night fingers… 🙂