Federer vs. Nadal XXXI preview and pick

The 31st meeting between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will come on Friday in Cincinnati. The former No. 1 players in the world will be battling for a spot alongside either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych in the semifinals.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 31st time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open on Friday night.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 20-10, but they have split their 12 previous hard-court encounters at six wins apiece. They have faced each other twice this season, with Nadal dominating both times–6-4, 6-2 in the Indian Wells quarterfinals and 6-1, 6-3 in the Rome title match. Federer last defeated the Spaniard one year ago in the Indian Wells semifinals with a 6-3, 6-4 victory.

Nadal presser
Current form, of course, gives a decided edge to Nadal. The world No. 3 is an amazing 50-3 for the season, including a perfect 12-0 on hard courts. He triumphed in Indian Wells, toppled Novak Djokovic en route to the Montreal title last week, and so far in Cincinnati he has dismissed Benjamin Becker and Grigor Dimitrov. Nadal showcased the same aggressiveness against Becker as he did in Montreal, but a far less polished performance on Thursday helped Dimitrov take a set in a 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 decision.

Federer’s Cincinnati campaign has been relatively similar. Going back to his old racket, the fifth-ranked Swiss took care of Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets before turning in a disastrous set and a half against Tommy Haas in the third round. Haas led by a set and a break only to see Federer storm back for a 1-6, 7-5, 6-3 win. The rest of Federer’s year, however, has been nothing like that of Nadal. The 17-time Grand Slam champion’s record stands at 32-10, with recent losses in the Wimbledon second round, Hamburg semifinals, and Gstaad second round.

Fed 1
“I want to make sure I start better and finish strong as well,” Federer noted. “It’s clearly going to be a difficult match because (Nadal) comes in with a lot of confidence. It’s a great season for him.”

While adorning Federer with his usual praise, Nadal also assured that facing his rival makes it different from just any other quarterfinal. “Always [to] play against Roger is a special feeling. We have a great history behind us in our confrontations.”

Speaking of history, Federer is a five-time champion of this event whereas Nadal has never won it–nor even been to the final. The hard-court surface helps Federer, as do the night conditions (by Nadal’s own admission). Still, this has clearly been a bad matchup for Federer and it has become even worse for him of late. Based on their respective levels of play this summer, it’s hard to imagine Federer turning the tide.

Pick: Nadal 6-2. 7-6(4)

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37 Comments on Federer vs. Nadal XXXI preview and pick

  1. Boy o boy, Rafa, ypu did not do my heart good…………………..but I still love you! I must say, Fed player very well, Rafa always brings out the best in Fed. I felt he played quite well and for a long while there I thought Fed would pull it out!!!

    Congrats Rafa!! But you will have to play much better with Berdych tomorrow, the Bird is on fire!!!!!

      • Are we trying to say had Fed challenged Fed would have won the match..please..it would have only been back to deuce..1 point makes no difference in the match..Rafa deserved this win as he beat Fed on Feds strongest surface

  2. Abhirf,
    take heart: we got more than the few good points you hoped for. And Federer came determined and did execute the best possible tactics against Rafa and he did that for the first two sets. He played better than in most of his matches in a while now.

    He did have the advantage of a night match and one of Rafa’s ‘worst’ hardcourt surfaces. At the same time Rafa did reach a better level of play in the middle of the second set and then was just too hard to defeat. I kept thinking that this is how Roger should have approached all his matches against Rafa all these years. (And he did on occasion). Today he executed that very well until Rafa reached his better level.

    I loved that improvised scoop up lob Rafa found and turned into a winner.

    After all this having to play at this level I hope Rafa can close our the tournament, no matter who he needs to play now.

  3. My nerves are shot. I guess Fed should have challenged that call. Three match points and still didn’t close it out. I thought that I would faint!

    Then my Mom calls me long distance from Florida and I’m screaming Rafa has match point, now it’s deuce. She thought I was out of my mind. She doesn’t understand or watch tennis at all. So I am trying to talk to her and watch the end of the match. Then I am screaming- the ball was out. So she is asking me, does that mean Rafa doesn’t win? So then I was trying to explain how the score works in tennis and the challenge system.

    She saw a little of the match and said that Rafa looks so mad! I told her that’s how he is when he plays.

    Oh I am just a wreck now!

    Rafa will not have much time to recuperate. The match will start at 2:30 pm tomorrow.

  4. 17 winners to 16 U.E for federer in set 1 as far as i remember… 9 winners to 5 U.E for rafa in set 2…dont know abt set 3…

    rafa is now 51-3 in 2013, 13-0 on courts…3-0 against fed, 2-1 against djokovic… 8 titles…9th one coming? beating berdych is a safe bet..delpo would be the toughest one..rafa stuck among giants !!

    get the world no.2 rafa !! If rafa wins cincy, he’l end 2013 as no.1 in my opinion

  5. oh okay, I did not remember them correctly then…

    Rafa started solving the roger puzzle at 4-4 15-30, arguably the most important rally of the match featuring big hitting from both

  6. thanks sana…. @rafaelo, yea rafa had many break points….

    on another note, i found djokovic’s press conference comments disgraceful…

    “I just played a very bad match overall,” Djokovic said. “Terrible match. From beginning to end, except the start of the second set. I was just a different player totally. Today I wasn’t able to capitalize on my opportunities and serves. You know, in some important moments some double faults, and that’s the way it is.”

    now that’s a perfect definition of taking credit away from your opponent… we know you were not playing great, novak…no need to magnify it so much in the presser..

    anyway, djokovic is in a poor state of mind right now..i have been saying this since montreal and it has some evidence too now…he is wilting under pressure and there is negativity and pessimism and a sense of vulnerability not only in his game but also his comments.

    #rafaClearFavouriteforUSO

  7. Guys hghlights of Rafa – Fed match already up in Youtube. good quality..20 minutes of highlights.

    Check id Rafapedia

    Good winners from both..great lobs.. Feds handshake at end was cold this time though..he did not even smile properly at Rafa..I mean gotta excuse him as he must be pissed off with himself that he lost here to Rafa on one of his fav courts n Rafas worst.

  8. And now enough of this drawing Fed n Rafa in same qtr..happened 3 times already this year..Why is Djokovic n Murray not drawing Fed at all in their qtrs or why did they not draw Rafa in thir qtrs yet when Rafa was No 5. I think the fact that Fed Rafa match means guaranteed crowds, viewershp means tourneys want them to play now whichever round it may be.

    BTW is Fed going to drop down to No 7 ..reading some comments around it.. not that it matters for a slam..5-8 all the same for a slam

  9. Nadal says he felt slow and didn’t have the right return position early b/c Roger played so aggressively

    RF: “I think Rafa’s confidence & the way he’s playing at the moment got him thru. For me, I think it was a good step in the right direction”

    Rafa says it was difficult to read Fed’s serve in the 1st set: “I have to play my best against him. He’s a great champion

    Tennis Facts ‏@TennisFacts 2h Nadal has improved his H2H against Federer on surfaces other than clay to 8-8 (7-6 on hard, 1-2 on grass).

    Tennis Facts ‏@TennisFacts 2h Nadal and Federer have met on non-clay surfaces more than on clay.

    Federer: “Wasn’t a bad performance, so I can definitely take more things away from this week than I could for the last 3 months.”

    #rafaelnadal says his intensity helped him win tonight

    @andyroddick Nothing in tennis like the matchup w Fed and Nadal …. This match is an insanely high level of tennis right now….

  10. I got the numbers for first and second set:

    Set 1: Winners Federer 17-7 Nadal unforced errors: Federer 16 – 12 Nadal
    Set 2: Winners Federer 14-9 Nadal unforced errors: Federer 12 – 5 Nadal

    btw, Nadal has improved his record in hard outdoor to 7-2

  11. Sanju,

    You asked about whether Rafa was up and down in this match like he was with Dimitrov. He did not play well in that first set and Fed played extremely well. Better than he has against Rafa in quite some time. You have posted some of Rafa’s comments to explain what was going on.

    We were concerned because Rafa seemed to revert to his defensive tennis in that first set. He was standing too far back behind the baseline. He also seemed kind of flat. We are not used to Fed winning the first set against Rafa anymore! 🙂

    But he picked it up in the second set and only got better as the match went on. He was really firing on all cylinders in that third set. Getting the break at the end of the second set to win it really seemed to get Rafa going. He found his aggressive game again.

    Remember I said that it would be a much more competitive match this time. I had a few reasons for saying it, plus this strong gut feeling that I get after watching a lifetime of tennis. I voted Rafa in three sets in the poll. I definitely thought it would go three sets. I think Fed had a lot on the line, had a come from behind win against Haas and came in with a game plan.

    But Rafa is the great problem solver out there on the court. He never gives up and is always thinking out there. No one is better at making adjustments in a match.

    My only concern about the semi with Berdy is the short turnaround time that Rafa has before the day match tomorrow afternoon. This will also be his first match played in the day. We will see what he has left. But I have to admit that it would be amazing to see him win this title and get the #2 ranking before the USO.

    • Yes Berdy i the real test not bcoz of who Berdy is but because Rafa has like only 15 hours recovery time and has played back to back 3 setters. I think day conditios suit him, nothing much to worry. Also lets not forget Berdy played only in Grandstand, not in show court, so he would not have felt this court too.

      I am watching the match on TV now and yes Fed is super aggressive in 1st set. I knew this one will not be straightforward and will be very competitive and hence was nervous. Fed is not a 5 time champion here for nothing.

  12. Federer took the battle to Nadal from the outset and his backhand was significantly more effective against the lefty than in their past three meetings, in which the Swiss won an average of just six games a match. His decision to come over his backhand return on Nadal’s serve rather than slice was a signature tactic of the match. And his dazzling crosscourt backhand winner (play Hot Shot above) to take the first set was one of the best he’s ever hit against Nadal.

    “I’m not totally unhappy about the match. I could have played a bit better, but I think I was playing well and tactics were working. Of course, I always have to adjust to faster courts, slower courts when I play Rafa. Plus it is him; it’s the type of game I don’t see very often…

    “I’m happy with my progress along the way. Could have won tonight. Should have won tonight, who knows? But at the end, I think Rafa’s confidence and the way he’s playing at the moment got him through. So for me, I think it was a good step in the right direction.”

    “My mind’s already totally geared into what I’m going to do tomorrow, next day, and the following day, and looking ahead at the US Open. So I’m excited about the next sort of 10 days.”

    So Fed came with a proper game plan and actually took Rafa offguard in 1st. Apart from being very aggressive , I think he using the ‘topping backhand’ or ‘coming over’ backhand rather than the slice one was key change of tactic. I am happy Rafa played him , he will be better prepared now for Fed. Rem after WTF 2011 when Rafa lost 6-3, 6-0, how he changed his game vs Rafa in 2012 AO, he basically said Roger had improved his BH a lot and hence he was attacking ogers both wings rather than just BH .

  13. Watching the delayed telecast on TV. The rally in which Fed broke Rafa reminded me of TMC’06 SF. Peppering FH’s by Roger. For the 1st time this season Fed’s movement around the court looks like what it should be.
    1st set Fed 7-5.
    If Fed can carry this to USO, then a probable Qf upset is definitely on cards. Rafa managed to escape. But probably Nole or Muzz wouldn’t.

    Look what Rogie’s done. Suddenly got me too excited for the Open. 😉

    • Agree..watcing it too on TenSports now..good match..but abhi..whether he can over 3 sets against Nole or Murray is the question..

      And Abhi..cmon you gotta be fair..Rafa played and won..he did not manage to escape..if you say he escaped, it almost implies he got lucky ..he made aadjustments..played the big points in 2nd n 3rd far better

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