Federer vs. Nadal XXXI preview and pick

The 31st meeting between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will come on Friday in Cincinnati. The former No. 1 players in the world will be battling for a spot alongside either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych in the semifinals.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 31st time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open on Friday night.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 20-10, but they have split their 12 previous hard-court encounters at six wins apiece. They have faced each other twice this season, with Nadal dominating both times–6-4, 6-2 in the Indian Wells quarterfinals and 6-1, 6-3 in the Rome title match. Federer last defeated the Spaniard one year ago in the Indian Wells semifinals with a 6-3, 6-4 victory.

Nadal presser
Current form, of course, gives a decided edge to Nadal. The world No. 3 is an amazing 50-3 for the season, including a perfect 12-0 on hard courts. He triumphed in Indian Wells, toppled Novak Djokovic en route to the Montreal title last week, and so far in Cincinnati he has dismissed Benjamin Becker and Grigor Dimitrov. Nadal showcased the same aggressiveness against Becker as he did in Montreal, but a far less polished performance on Thursday helped Dimitrov take a set in a 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 decision.

Federer’s Cincinnati campaign has been relatively similar. Going back to his old racket, the fifth-ranked Swiss took care of Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets before turning in a disastrous set and a half against Tommy Haas in the third round. Haas led by a set and a break only to see Federer storm back for a 1-6, 7-5, 6-3 win. The rest of Federer’s year, however, has been nothing like that of Nadal. The 17-time Grand Slam champion’s record stands at 32-10, with recent losses in the Wimbledon second round, Hamburg semifinals, and Gstaad second round.

Fed 1
“I want to make sure I start better and finish strong as well,” Federer noted. “It’s clearly going to be a difficult match because (Nadal) comes in with a lot of confidence. It’s a great season for him.”

While adorning Federer with his usual praise, Nadal also assured that facing his rival makes it different from just any other quarterfinal. “Always [to] play against Roger is a special feeling. We have a great history behind us in our confrontations.”

Speaking of history, Federer is a five-time champion of this event whereas Nadal has never won it–nor even been to the final. The hard-court surface helps Federer, as do the night conditions (by Nadal’s own admission). Still, this has clearly been a bad matchup for Federer and it has become even worse for him of late. Based on their respective levels of play this summer, it’s hard to imagine Federer turning the tide.

Pick: Nadal 6-2. 7-6(4)

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36 Comments on Federer vs. Nadal XXXI preview and pick

    • So confident vamosrafa
      Rafa looks like didn’t play too well today as he dropped a close 2 nd set

      This is feds home too

      Vamosrafa how was Rafa game today wat worked n wat didnt

  1. —While adorning Federer with his usual praise, Nadal—

    Rafa knows what pro-Fed journalists/writers want to hear and he delights them. The journalists have kept asking and Rafa keeps answering the same. The journalists get every time very excited (billions of times!) about that. Isn’t it funny?

  2. @sanju, he was just not comfortable overall…he won set 1 6-2 but it was nothing special…he served well though…dimitrov sprayed too many errors… set 2, rafa was a up a break and he started missing sooo many easy forehands…he was dumping them into the net and forehand DTL was way off too…it was natural for him to lose confidence so the backhand started lacking aggressiveness even more…the ROS was just not there the entire match..not getting good enough strikes back… He was also standing much deeper in the court for ROS and not playing inside the baseline like his previous match.

    Set was better but nowhere near vintage rafa…I hope it was just an off day..he looked disgruntled and frustrated too…. However, I am confident he’l be back to playing some great ball tomorrow

    • And how was Fed vaamosrafa? was he also equally bad or was his match against Haas better?

      I wonder why Rafa suddenly stopped being aggressive today and did not play close to the baseline or inside the baseline . With confidence there should be no frustration or disgruntlement.

      How long was the Rafa match vamosrafa?

      • Federer was terrible for a set and a half. seriously BAD. But he was pretty good the rest of the time. Still nowhere near Rafa’s level.

      • Thanks Ricky. So looks like both played BAD today. God knows how both will turn out tomorrow? Rafa has already said its a night match and night conditions will favour Fed.

      • Sanju,

        Fed was awful for a set and a half. I mean really dreadful stuff. I thought that Haas let him back into that match and then he started playing better. Also Haas didn’t really keep it together.

        I am now watching the tape delayed broadcase of Rafa/Dimitrov. They are starting the second set. I want to see what happened and how Rafa lost that second set. I was not happy about that. All the other guys, including Fed, are taking it easy and Rafa plays last and then has to go three sets.

        I don’t know what was going on with Rafa tonight but he let that second set get away and that’s something he hasn’t been doing except against Djoker.

        I am not that sure it will be a straight set win for Rafa against Fed. It depends on how he plays. I expect Fed to come out playing much better than he did against Haas. He is the one defending 1000 points and desperately needing a win to turn around a disastrous year. Rafa will have to find his aggressive game again.

  3. Sanju,

    I am sorry to cause you concern. Someone on vb said that a person who was at Rafa’s practice said he was limping. I could seriously strangle people who relate stuff like that. Then there was this hoax tweeted by a Fed fan who was at Rafa’s practice, to the effect that Rafa was ill with the flu or stomach poisoning. That proved to be totally false.

    I did not see Rafa do that little half squat thing for the rest of the match. I know that someone on vb said that he does this in practice. I think it might have been a little tightness or niggle, but wasn’t anything to be concerned about. Rafa moved well in the match. He had a brain cramp and made some mistakes in the last few games of the second set. I wanted him to get out of there in two sets.

    Ricky,

    How do you know that the knee is not an issue. Did you ask Rafa? πŸ™‚

    I am superstitious when it comes to matches with Fed. I know that Rafa had that big h2h advantage but I don’t like to get overconfident. As long as Rafa plays better than he did tonight, he should get the win. There is no way that Fed can come out and play as awful as he did against Haas in that first set and a half .Not against Rafa. He will know that.

    It’s just that Fed has a lot on the line here. He will drop a huge chunk of points and could go down further in the rankings. I just want Rafa to come out playing his aggressive game. I hope this was just one off night for him.

    • So NNY..looks like you think it can go either way? Me too I think it can go either way as the court is fast, night condtons and Fed will be very motivated for this as he knows he will go down to No 6 if he loses this as he will lose 820 points.

      • Sanju,

        I think this one will go three sets. I do think the fast court and night conditions will help Fed. I agree that he will be very motivated to get this win. However, he will be playing one of the most formidable competitors ever. We know Rafa’s mental strength and will to win. That’s why I think this one will go the distance.

        If Rafa plays his aggressive game and serves well, then I think he will get the win. But I am not taking anything for granted. Ricky seems so sure. I always get a little nervous.

  4. People viewing Rafa limping with microscopic detail now is actually getting irritating.And it just sends panic across like wild fire.

    Oh Rafa..your famous knes give your fans too much stress (:-

    • Rafas forehand topspin bounces higher during day and Fed is very uncomfy with that high topspin to his BH. At night the forehand topspin has lesser pop

  5. “Rafa since he’s come back has been the best player in the world, no question about it,” Djokovic told ESPN after his third round victory at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati.

    The World No. 1 said he sees improvements in Nadal’s game since the Spaniard missed seven months last year with a knee injury. “I think he’s more aggressive,” said Djokovic, pointing to their semi-final match in Montreal last week, which was won by Nadal in three sets. “He was very aggressive, stepping in, variety in the game — but it was still a very close match,” the Serb added.

  6. I am not nervous to be honest…I am confident about rafa winning this one. Do I think rafa’s knees were a cause of concern yesterday? No. Am i scared about his knees being potentially damaged before USO? yeah to some extent :/ I am just worried about the prospect of rafa having to play 3 consecutive 3 setters against fed muzz nole…Plz keep this one to two sets rafa …He will be better today I am sure πŸ™‚

  7. Rafa was asked about his knees after the match against B. Becker. He has pain sometimes, but he can move normally.
    —-Q. Rafa, you played a lot of matches this year, but not a lot of matches in a row on hard courts. So how much of a test is this tournament for your knees as well as your tennis, back‑to‑back hard court events?
    RAFAEL NADAL: No, I think it’s not a big test for me. My knee is healed, is working well for the moment. On the court, I felt more trouble was on grass because the movements are less stable and I need to play lower than in the rest of the surfaces.
    In the rest of the surfaces I will not say I am 100% perfect, but the way that my knee works today is not limiting my game in no way. So I’m very happy for that.
    I have pain sometimes, yes. That’s why I say I’m not 100% perfect. But I’m 100% perfect to compete at 100% today.—-

    The full interview with Rafa after his match against B. Becker. August 14, 2013.
    http://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/08/16/an-interview-with-rafael-nadal-august-14-2013/

  8. Rafa after his yesterday’s match: —“I played a good level in the first set. Then his serve was working well in the beginning of the second. I was having trouble, so just wait for my moment,” said Nadal. “I started the third set trying to go another time inside the court and trying to have the control of the point from there, and I think I played a good third set in general.”—
    I think, Rafa will make adjustments during today’s match also, if necessary.

  9. thanks augusta08 πŸ™‚ your contributions are much appreciated. So ‘ my knee is healed’ removes all my concerns πŸ™‚

  10. I just hope it turns out to be a competitive match. It’s Rafa’s match to lose. Though Fed can surprise just like he did at IW last year.
    Fed needs to be aggresseve on his serve and return game and should try to convert every BP opportunity he gets. The most frustating part is when he simply nets the opponents serves on BP’s. Just hoping that he turns out in the mood. Win or lose is a different matter right now.

  11. Fed is going to get pummeled from the baseline today. That isn’t a question. There is nothing he can do about. His chance is to have an awesome day on serve (has to serve at 70 percent, at least) and to be extremely aggressive with returns. He is not going to break serve unless he hits outright winners with returns and/or takes control of rallies starting with the first shot.

  12. This is a bad version of Federer vs a Good version of Nadal. I think is going to be a quick match (maybe less than 80 minutes). I think there is a good chance that Federer will be number 7 in ranking at the end of the day. I dont see Federer winning
    more than 3 o 4 games
    Prediction: 6-2 6-2

  13. Ricky, I do acknowledge your statement but it’s not like that Fed doesnt know how to play from the baseline. The guy is probably in his worst form of his career but it takes just a spirited performance or a great day to turn things up. I acknowledge that the probablity of such a scenario taking place given the present situation is very little. But it is there.
    I will root for him no matter what, even knowing he fact that he will lose in almost all probability.

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