Federer vs. Nadal XXXI preview and pick

The 31st meeting between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will come on Friday in Cincinnati. The former No. 1 players in the world will be battling for a spot alongside either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych in the semifinals.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 31st time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Western & Southern Open on Friday night.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 20-10, but they have split their 12 previous hard-court encounters at six wins apiece. They have faced each other twice this season, with Nadal dominating both times–6-4, 6-2 in the Indian Wells quarterfinals and 6-1, 6-3 in the Rome title match. Federer last defeated the Spaniard one year ago in the Indian Wells semifinals with a 6-3, 6-4 victory.

Nadal presser
Current form, of course, gives a decided edge to Nadal. The world No. 3 is an amazing 50-3 for the season, including a perfect 12-0 on hard courts. He triumphed in Indian Wells, toppled Novak Djokovic en route to the Montreal title last week, and so far in Cincinnati he has dismissed Benjamin Becker and Grigor Dimitrov. Nadal showcased the same aggressiveness against Becker as he did in Montreal, but a far less polished performance on Thursday helped Dimitrov take a set in a 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 decision.

Federer’s Cincinnati campaign has been relatively similar. Going back to his old racket, the fifth-ranked Swiss took care of Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets before turning in a disastrous set and a half against Tommy Haas in the third round. Haas led by a set and a break only to see Federer storm back for a 1-6, 7-5, 6-3 win. The rest of Federer’s year, however, has been nothing like that of Nadal. The 17-time Grand Slam champion’s record stands at 32-10, with recent losses in the Wimbledon second round, Hamburg semifinals, and Gstaad second round.

Fed 1
“I want to make sure I start better and finish strong as well,” Federer noted. “It’s clearly going to be a difficult match because (Nadal) comes in with a lot of confidence. It’s a great season for him.”

While adorning Federer with his usual praise, Nadal also assured that facing his rival makes it different from just any other quarterfinal. “Always [to] play against Roger is a special feeling. We have a great history behind us in our confrontations.”

Speaking of history, Federer is a five-time champion of this event whereas Nadal has never won it–nor even been to the final. The hard-court surface helps Federer, as do the night conditions (by Nadal’s own admission). Still, this has clearly been a bad matchup for Federer and it has become even worse for him of late. Based on their respective levels of play this summer, it’s hard to imagine Federer turning the tide.

Pick: Nadal 6-2. 7-6(4)

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33 Comments on Federer vs. Nadal XXXI preview and pick

  1. I have never joined in the chorus when many people predicted Fed had the skids under him. I’d always maintained it was too early to write him off so his performance last night did not come as a complete surprise. Nothing wrong with his game but his nerves have been frayed by the run of losses.

    It was a classic case of Rafa winning a match that looked like a lost cause.

    After winning Montreal I’d been fully prepared Rafa might not even play Cincy so every win from now on a bonus.

  2. Not able to decide which match was better- The Fedal QF at Cincy or the Rafa Nole semi in Montreal..both were high high quality

  3. Nah Sanju, I didnt implied that Rafa got lucky. I just meant that he withstood one tide. The confidence that Fed can gain from this match can help him overcome Nole or Muzz against whom Fed doesnt have that mental aspect as he has against Rafa. Always gets tight in crucial moments & as soon as Rafa senses that he suddenly escalates his level. This has been the story throughout their rivalry, not just yesterday’s case.

    I’m just happy that he finally decided to show up and fight. Now it’s time to relax for a day or two and put the thought and work in streamline again for the open.

    • I hope either Nole or Muzz draw him now in QFs. Rafa and Fed have drawn each other thrice now this yeat at IW, Wimby, Cincinnati. Time now for Nole or Muzz to face the brunt , esp Nole who has been getting far too many cupcake draws this year(except RG and Montreal where he drew Rafa in his half)

  4. well in a lot of fedal matches nadal has the control from the beginning but fed having control for almost half the match was not at that customary in their rivalry…dubai 06 final was a similar contest though…

    Rafa is actually unmatched in this regard. Federer has never been able to solve the nadal puzzle.really. rafa, on the other hand, has actually overcome every kind of obstacle , the biggest one of which has been nole’s grip on him….rafa has solved the nole puzzle despite being hampered with all the injuries and lay offs .. this makes rafa an unmatched champion

    • it’s not about the control of match from its onset. Their many battles have been more than almost equal till a crucial juncture in each set they have played in those matches. I dont know why Fed always dropped his guard or Rafa escalating his level or a combination of both just while closing on to end of the set in most of their matches. Wimby’08, FO’06, ’07, 2011, AO ‘ 12, Madrid’11.. etc etc. Fed doesnt do these things against other top opponents. Rafa faltered in similar battles against Nole. But when it comes to Fedal, it usually turns out to be the same.

  5. True sanju ! federer at USO can be quite dangerous so I want either nole or andy to draw him… I want either delpo or fed to be drawn in nole’s quarter… I wont bet against nole reaching the final if he has fed/delpo in the qtr followed by murray in the semis -now this requires murray to be ranked no.3 though

    • Well vamosrafa..dont you think the fast Cincy court had something to do with Fed controlling for 1st set and part of 2nd. It was always known Fed is gonna give Rafa a very tough time on fast outdoor corts and grass and beat him almost all times on indoor.. I never understood all people who maade claims that Fed is gonna get thrashed, he never was going to, he has won this tourney 5 times for a good reason and he was playing here for his pride to protect his ranking..he had all the motvation to go for it

  6. and honestly, I do not think federer went away mentally in the 3rd set…if he were absent in the 3rd set, he would not have saved that tough game at 1-4 …then holding again at 2-5 and expending every ounce of energy at 3-5 saving four match points, it was clear he did not fade.. rafa absorbed everything, he has been flawless on hard courts this year :O

    with fed its funny, he always saves matches points only to lose the match …poor guy, saved 5 match pnts against murray in shanghai 2008 and lost eventually…saved 2 match points in wimb 2008 but still lost..saved 4 match points here but lost…. there have been other instances too

    • No he did not fade away mentally..he just couldnt keep up with Rafas relentlessness..But the disgust on his fce when he dropped serve in 3rd at beg said it all..he knew it was a tough mountain for him.

      BTW vamorafa..he saved the serve at 4 1 down more because of Rafas misjudgement of stopping play to challenge a call where the ball just clipped the line.

  7. it’s good to have abhirf, a devoted fed fan…. I hope other fed fans join ! danica, zare mriidula and other nole fans too…. I hope they are not scared by the excessive rafa population here haha, jk…

    • Haha there is no excess Rafa population here than what was on TT 🙂

      BTW you know wht abhi, Fed has almost nothing to defend from now till next years Cincy..he only won Halle..if he really wants to continue playing and has the motivation , he has zero pressure from now till next August and h can actually make a steep climb up the rankings.

      • Yeah. I know that part. I had a discussion about it with my brother too. Maybe this season’s failures will provide him enough motivation. I know he will make his point whenever people start doubting him. But, then, he has this race against time too. Let’s see where it takes him.

      • I think Fed has 360 (US) + 360 (Shanghai) + 300 (Basel) + 800 (WTF) = 1820 points to defend..which is not that much..compare that to Novak – 1200 (USO) + 1000(Shanghai ) + 1500 (WTF) = 3700 points or Andy ( also maybe upwards 3000-3500)

  8. Fed goes down to #7 on Monday so there is a lot of pressure on him to stay in the top 10. One saving grace is that Tsonga is out injured and I don’t see anyone else posing a threat to Fed in that direction.

  9. Just a stat

    Did u know that of Rafas 58 titles only 7 are 250’s. Of Feds 77, 25 are 250’s. All of Rafa’s titles r high calibre

  10. Federer played the best match I have ever seen him play against Rafa. And Rafa said it in his presser: Fed brought new tactics today and guess whose tactics Fed pillaged, Djokovic’s! Fed was peppering Rafa’s backhand in the first set with success, I think because Rafa was surprised and needed time to adjust, which he did mid second set. All through the first set, Rafa could not find Fed’s backhand because Fed was doing a good job of protecting it. Then, inexplicably, Fed reverted to serve and volley which was the turning point and suicidal for Fed because Rafa had found his range and was passing him at will.

    The take out for me from this match was that Fed changed his tactics against Rafa, something he had steadfastly refused to do all through his career. Fed had always arrogantly believed his best could do the job against Rafa, wrong. Begs the question: what if Fed had the humility to change tactics before, what would the H2H be? Instead, here he is, when it is almost too late, changing his tactics…………….

    • RIB..Key chnage in tactic was topping his backhand and hitting it rather than slicing it, notice he barely sliced hs BH all match and serve n volley was another tactic so that he does not get drawn into long baseline duels.

      I think Fed agtting Rafas BH, well he has been trying to do this since long, nothing new. On clay and slower HC, Rafa gets time to get into position or run around to hit his FH etc, on faster HC he doesnt .

  11. Just finished watching the highlights and I’m really disgusted. I mean why did Fed suddenly changed his gameplan to foray to the net when he was holding pretty well from the baseline. No reason he wanted to kick himself after losing that serve in the 3rd set. Never seen him so much disgusted after being broken. That even showed when the 2 met at the net after the match. This was not usual Fedal at the nets after completion of the match. The handshakes and their talks were conspicous by its absence.

    • Yes I commented on it before above too. The handshake at the net was cold and very uncustomary to Fedal. I think Fed was a bit disgusted (maybe more at himself)

  12. Sanju, I still think rafa played too passively in set 1.. his backhand was shaky even on neutral balls..the rafa of montreal SF would have taken this one in 1 sets…Federer was great though, rafa’s discomfort in set 1 also had a lot to do with how aggressive Fed was playing…

    And as far as USO speed is concerned in comparison to Montrea/ cincy…do no think we can make any deductions unless the players experience it in 2013 ! Everyone thought cincy plays quicker than montreal but rafa said montreal was quicker this year so court speeds may vary over time…I am not sure if the courts in Toronto are similar to those in montreal…. anyway, I have always heard that USO’s surface was closer to montreal/toronto as its slower than cincy but now montreal played quicker (according to rafa) :O I do not think it would make a difference… One think for sure is that USO court is medium-fast paced now… paris has the quickest conditions as far as masters 1000 are concerned ..

  13. watching the fedal match again..rafa’s biggest worry in set 1 was ROS…he started reading the fed serve much better in set 2 and finally was all over it in set 3

    • Rafas form has dropped a bit from Montreal to Cinci and he is not as aggressive in Cincy as he was in Montreal..hope he gets back to his super aggressive avtaar in USO

      Same happ in Rome and RG..he seemed to peak in Rome semis n finals and suddenly regressed several notches n RG initial rounds

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