Davis Cup first round previews and predictions

If it feels like Great Britain just won the Davis Cup, well…it did. Andy Murray and company lifted the trophy in late November and will be back in action this weekend—in early March—as the battle begins in the 2016 World Group. Among the countries also contesting opening-round ties are Japan, the United States, Australia, the Czech Republic, Germany, Croatia, and Belgium.

United States vs. Australia

Where: Melbourne, Australia
Surface: Grass
United States: John Isner, Jack Sock, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
Australia: Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, John Peers, Lleyton Hewitt

Nick Kyrgios is out; Lleyton Hewitt is in. That’s right; the door is open for Hewitt to become a player-captain after Kyrgios was left off the team on Thursday because of both a back injury and a virus. Although the recently-retired Hewitt is now an official member of the Australian foursome, the more likely scenario is that Sam Groth will play both singles and doubles. No. 1 singles player Bernard Tomic is in fine form and generally loves grass, but he is making a quick turnaround following a runner-up performance on the hard courts of Acapulco.

Nobody on the American side is in particularly stellar form at the moment. Aside from a fourth-round performance at the Australian Open, John Isner has won only a single match in three tournaments. Jack Sock has not picked up a victory since the first round in Melbourne. Bob and Mike Bryan are without a title in four events this season and have lost their first match at two of the four. On an unfavorable surface away from home, Team USA could be in trouble.

Prediction: Australia 3, United States 1 (last rubber dead)

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Czech Republic vs. Germany

Where: Hannover, Germany
Surface: Indoor hard
Czech Republic: Tomas Berdych, Lukas Rosol, Radek Stepanek, Jiri Vesely
Germany: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Alexander Zverev, Dustin Brown, Philipp Petzschner

Both countries have all of their top players on board. Germany owns home-court advantage, but the Czech Republic boasts a clear edge in experience. This tie has a little bit of everything: a 37-year-old (Radek Stepanek), an 18-year-old (Alexander Zverev), a villain (Lukas Rosol), and an up-and-coming hero (Zverev). It also has Dustin Brown. The result should be an extremely entertaining and competitive tie—perhaps the all-around best of the weekend.
Dustin Brown
Berdych and Stepanek led their nation to the Davis Cup title in both 2012 and 2013, but it is Rosol who will be joining Berdych in singles duty this weekend. Rosol will be an underdog in each of his rubbers, so Berdych may have to contribute to all three points if the visitors want to win. The world No. 7 is 28-14 lifetime in Davis Cup singles and 20-2 in doubles. Zverev, on other hand, has never played a match in this event.

Prediction: Germany 3, Czech Republic 2

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Croatia vs. Belgium

Where: Liege, Belgium
Surface: Indoor clay
Serbia
: Marin Cilic, Borna Coric, Ivan Dodig, Franko Skugor
Belgium: David Goffin, Ruben Bemelmans, Kimmer Coppejans, Arthur De Greef

Like Great Britain in 2015, Belgium benefited from a whole host of home ties to reach the final last fall. The Belgians even enjoyed home-court advantage at the final hurdle, but Murray and the visiting Brits proved to be too tough. David Goffin and friends are back at home in the 2016 first round (as is Great Britain, for that matter), but they face a tough test in the form of Croatia.

The question is where will the home team pick up a point aside from Goffin’s two singles rubbers. Based on current form and the clay-court surface, Goffin should be able to beat both Borna Coric and Marin Cilic. Croatia, however, will be favored in doubles thanks mostly to Ivan Dodig—one of the best doubles players in the world. Can either Ruben Bemelmans or Kimmer Coppejans manage to score a singles victory if Belgium loses the doubles rubber? It’s possible, but not likely.

Prediction: Croatia 3, Belgium 2

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Japan vs. Great Britain

Where: Birmingham, Great Britain
Surface: Indoor hard
Japan: Andy Murray, Kyle Edmund, Jamie Murray, Dominic Inglot
Great Britain: Kei Nishikori, Yoshihito Nishioka, Taro Daniel, Yasutaka Uchiyama

“I’m just here for Andy Murray vs. Kei Nishikori.” That’s what many tennis fans will be saying or thinking as it pertains to interest in this tie. Day one should be straightforward when the defending Davis Cup champions host Japan. Murray will cruise past Taro Daniel in the opening rubber before Nishikori likely makes mincemeat out of Daniel Evans. Either the Murray brothers or Jamie Murray and Dominic Inglot can be expected to dominate Saturday’s doubles match to give the host nation a 2-1 lead.

Kei

That would set the stage for a Murray-Nishikori showdown on Sunday, with Murray having a chance to send GBR to the quarterfinals. The second-ranked Scot went an unbelievable 11-0 in total rubbers last season and he is 34-7 lifetime in Davis Cup—including 27-2 in singles. His match against Daniel on Friday will help Murray shake off the rust after taking paternity leave throughout the month of February.

Prediction: Great Britain 3, Japan 1

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In other ties, Serbia hosts Kazakhstan, Italy hosts Switzerland, Poland hosts Argentina, and France hosts Canada.

Predictions: Serbia 3, Kazakhstan 0 – Italy 3, Switzerland 0 – Argentina 3, Poland 2 – France 3, Canada 0

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

41 Comments on Davis Cup first round previews and predictions

  1. Great Britain 3-1
    Belgium v Croatia – where’s Darcis? 3-2 Croatia.
    Australia v USA – 3-2
    Germany v Czech Republic – 3-2 Germany

  2. GB over Japan 3-1
    Australia over USA 3-2
    Serbia over Kazakhstan 3-0
    Italy over Switzerland 3-1
    Poland over Argentina 3-1
    Germany over Czech Republic 3-2
    Croatia over Belgium 3-2
    I’ll do France vs Canada when they make official lineup.

  3. 00:00 Australia (31/20) V USA (2/3) BEST ODDS
    12:00 Czech Republic (1/2) V Germany (13/8) BEST ODDS
    13:00 Belgium (11/4) V Croatia (3/10) BEST ODDS
    13:00 Great Britain (1/4) V Japan (3/1) BEST ODDS
    13:00 Italy (1/20) V Switzerland (12/1) BEST ODDS
    13:00 Kazakhstan (9/1) V Serbia (1/16) BEST ODDS
    13:30 Argentina (1/3) V Poland (11/4) BEST ODDS
    15:00 Canada (10/1) V France (1/20)

    https://www.easyodds.com/online-betting/tennis/international/davis-cup-odds

    #YoureWelcome

    • Oh, you must have seen what I posted above already 🙂
      Pretty dumb if in reality I took Canada.

      But in our the virtual unit game…

  4. OK here’s the Davis Cup game:

    200 units. Have to put at least 10 on each tie. Whoever has the most units at the end of the weekend wins.

    Odds:

    USA (2 to 3) over Australia (3 to 2)
    Czech Republic (1 to 2) over Germany (13 to 8)
    Croatia (3 to 10) over Belgium (11 to 4)
    Great Britain (1 to 4) over Japan (3 to 1)
    Italy (1 to 20) over Switzerland (12 to 1)
    Serbia (1 to 16) over Kazakhstan (9 to 1)
    Argentina (1 to 3) over Poland (11 to 4)
    France (1 to 20) over Canada (10 to 1)

    My picks:

    10 France
    10 Argentina
    10 Serbia
    10 Italy
    10 Belgium
    80 Great Britain
    40 Germany
    30 Australia

  5. Wow. This will be tough. I’m not much for doubles tennis…
    Haven’t looked at all the match-ups yet but, seeing as Aussie gets under way any minute, I’ll make that one now.

    Aus 10 units.

  6. I am essentially banking on Tomic to win twice and then Groth to somehow beat Isner. If Isner wins tonight I’d say the Aussies are in trouble.
    As a side note, if anyone is actually a bettor, Isner/Groth o43.5 looks solid tonight.

  7. Waffling over how to divvy it up!
    25 units for Australia – since the they are scheduled to start in a few minutes. Losing confidence in them.

    • Could prove to be a very wise pick. Poor Groth.
      I want to pick Belgium but I don’t trust their doubles team or Kimmer Coppejans. Want to pick Poland too but can’t trust their singles nominee’s.

    • You could be right!
      John is much better than I expected. He’s looking good. John wins this and it will put pressure on Bernard next match – not sure how he’ll deal with that.

    • I’m watching, ed 🙂 Looks absolutely miserable out there. Tomic needs to break back in the next game if possible.

  8. Tomic being a touch complacent in the opening games of 3rd set. Sock has got Tomic on the back foot now.

    Nearly didn’t recognise Courier in casual wear!

  9. here goes…
    10 Great Britain
    10 Serbia
    10 Italy
    10 France
    10 Croatia
    10 Agentina (If Jerzy was there I’d pick Poland at home and on the strength of Kubot/Matkowski dubs — but Przysiezny is coming off injury and I have no clue who Hurkacz is)
    115 Germany
    25 Australia

    All in for Dreddy and Sascha

  10. Let’s go John!! He cruised. Groth hasn’t been playing well this season but with the home crowd I expected a better match. Looks like I could be right about Tomic an Isner getting wins so it’s all square after day one. Pretty surprised I’ve got a good shot at getting those picks right.

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