Davis Cup first round previews and predictions

If it feels like Great Britain just won the Davis Cup, well…it did. Andy Murray and company lifted the trophy in late November and will be back in action this weekend—in early March—as the battle begins in the 2016 World Group. Among the countries also contesting opening-round ties are Japan, the United States, Australia, the Czech Republic, Germany, Croatia, and Belgium.

United States vs. Australia

Where: Melbourne, Australia
Surface: Grass
United States: John Isner, Jack Sock, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
Australia: Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, John Peers, Lleyton Hewitt

Nick Kyrgios is out; Lleyton Hewitt is in. That’s right; the door is open for Hewitt to become a player-captain after Kyrgios was left off the team on Thursday because of both a back injury and a virus. Although the recently-retired Hewitt is now an official member of the Australian foursome, the more likely scenario is that Sam Groth will play both singles and doubles. No. 1 singles player Bernard Tomic is in fine form and generally loves grass, but he is making a quick turnaround following a runner-up performance on the hard courts of Acapulco.

Nobody on the American side is in particularly stellar form at the moment. Aside from a fourth-round performance at the Australian Open, John Isner has won only a single match in three tournaments. Jack Sock has not picked up a victory since the first round in Melbourne. Bob and Mike Bryan are without a title in four events this season and have lost their first match at two of the four. On an unfavorable surface away from home, Team USA could be in trouble.

Prediction: Australia 3, United States 1 (last rubber dead)

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Czech Republic vs. Germany

Where: Hannover, Germany
Surface: Indoor hard
Czech Republic: Tomas Berdych, Lukas Rosol, Radek Stepanek, Jiri Vesely
Germany: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Alexander Zverev, Dustin Brown, Philipp Petzschner

Both countries have all of their top players on board. Germany owns home-court advantage, but the Czech Republic boasts a clear edge in experience. This tie has a little bit of everything: a 37-year-old (Radek Stepanek), an 18-year-old (Alexander Zverev), a villain (Lukas Rosol), and an up-and-coming hero (Zverev). It also has Dustin Brown. The result should be an extremely entertaining and competitive tie—perhaps the all-around best of the weekend.
Dustin Brown
Berdych and Stepanek led their nation to the Davis Cup title in both 2012 and 2013, but it is Rosol who will be joining Berdych in singles duty this weekend. Rosol will be an underdog in each of his rubbers, so Berdych may have to contribute to all three points if the visitors want to win. The world No. 7 is 28-14 lifetime in Davis Cup singles and 20-2 in doubles. Zverev, on other hand, has never played a match in this event.

Prediction: Germany 3, Czech Republic 2

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Croatia vs. Belgium

Where: Liege, Belgium
Surface: Indoor clay
Serbia
: Marin Cilic, Borna Coric, Ivan Dodig, Franko Skugor
Belgium: David Goffin, Ruben Bemelmans, Kimmer Coppejans, Arthur De Greef

Like Great Britain in 2015, Belgium benefited from a whole host of home ties to reach the final last fall. The Belgians even enjoyed home-court advantage at the final hurdle, but Murray and the visiting Brits proved to be too tough. David Goffin and friends are back at home in the 2016 first round (as is Great Britain, for that matter), but they face a tough test in the form of Croatia.

The question is where will the home team pick up a point aside from Goffin’s two singles rubbers. Based on current form and the clay-court surface, Goffin should be able to beat both Borna Coric and Marin Cilic. Croatia, however, will be favored in doubles thanks mostly to Ivan Dodig—one of the best doubles players in the world. Can either Ruben Bemelmans or Kimmer Coppejans manage to score a singles victory if Belgium loses the doubles rubber? It’s possible, but not likely.

Prediction: Croatia 3, Belgium 2

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Japan vs. Great Britain

Where: Birmingham, Great Britain
Surface: Indoor hard
Japan: Andy Murray, Kyle Edmund, Jamie Murray, Dominic Inglot
Great Britain: Kei Nishikori, Yoshihito Nishioka, Taro Daniel, Yasutaka Uchiyama

“I’m just here for Andy Murray vs. Kei Nishikori.” That’s what many tennis fans will be saying or thinking as it pertains to interest in this tie. Day one should be straightforward when the defending Davis Cup champions host Japan. Murray will cruise past Taro Daniel in the opening rubber before Nishikori likely makes mincemeat out of Daniel Evans. Either the Murray brothers or Jamie Murray and Dominic Inglot can be expected to dominate Saturday’s doubles match to give the host nation a 2-1 lead.

Kei

That would set the stage for a Murray-Nishikori showdown on Sunday, with Murray having a chance to send GBR to the quarterfinals. The second-ranked Scot went an unbelievable 11-0 in total rubbers last season and he is 34-7 lifetime in Davis Cup—including 27-2 in singles. His match against Daniel on Friday will help Murray shake off the rust after taking paternity leave throughout the month of February.

Prediction: Great Britain 3, Japan 1

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In other ties, Serbia hosts Kazakhstan, Italy hosts Switzerland, Poland hosts Argentina, and France hosts Canada.

Predictions: Serbia 3, Kazakhstan 0 – Italy 3, Switzerland 0 – Argentina 3, Poland 2 – France 3, Canada 0

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

36 Comments on Davis Cup first round previews and predictions

  1. Murray has switched over to the reserve fuel tank and he is calling on the bloody minded Scotsman he is at heart.

  2. Finally Andy crawls across the line. Nishi put up an amazing fight to the bitter end and truth to tell came very close to pulling off the upset.

  3. I couldn’t watch it. Can’t watch Kei lose to anyone, not even Nole.

    Never thought Andy would lose. Congrats Great Britian. And Serbia. Nole toughed it out v Kukushkin in 5 sets!

    • Djokovic may have toughed out but he hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory this weekend. He has Troicki to thank for saving the day,

      Intrigued to see Goffin got the better of Cilic. Another deciding fifth rubber coming up.

      • It’s over. Borna-gain over Coppejans in straights. 🙁

        I didn’t exactly see anything but live score since I refuse to watch Kei lose and Tennis Channel was focused on that match. Tried to watch a little of Kohls v Berdych and some of Rosol v Sascha – but I lost a laptop streaming that way and if too many messages pop up, I shut it down quick.

        Doesn’t surprise me too much that someone like Kukushkin would swing freely and go for broke, if that’s what happened. But I don’t know what happened. Have not read any first-hand accounts yet. Prefer it if Nole didn’t play at all but guessing that wasn’t an option.

    • Kukushkin was playing Stan-like tennis and had Djokovic on the ropes for quite some time. Nobody expected a 5-set win

  4. I admit to not following the DC matches. But it’s quite surprising to come here and see that it took Novak five sets to beat the likes of Kukushkin!

    • Troicki has won 2 sets and is up a break in the 3rd; it appears he will beat Nedovyesov. But I’ll believe it when I see it on live score. It’s dangerous to be too certain with Victor at the end stage of a match.

  5. For those who are wondering how Kukushkin pushed Nole to five, Mikhail played great but Nole hit 96 unforced errors. The Simon match all over again.

    • Wow, Benny, thanks. Dodged a bullet then. I should look at the stats but have been watching Troiki’s score. Serbia made it through. Not sure that’s the greatest thing for Nole’s summer schedule!

      • I’ve been pondering that also.
        The July–September schedule spanning Wimbledo. Davis Cup, Olympics and USO is so tightly packed there’s barely time to get from one venue to another.

        • Something has to give, ed. I keep falling back on what Nole said about FO and Olympics being his priorities. Also, I keep in mind that like last year, if the first doesn’t work out, the goal posts will get moved. With Andy, I don’t know. But they are still the top 2 and the strongest, as we saw at AO.

          Kei can be such a mentally strong opponent. That’s one of the reasons I love Gilles Simon, too. And respect to Mikhail Kukushkin for being aggressive and going after Nole.

          I’m not expecting the IW – Miami double this year after his bad luck in Dubai with his eyes and now this. Only hoping for him to pace himself well, stay healthy and go as deep as he can at both tournaments. This season is going to be a long one.

          • IW-Miami double very possible though. Would not be surprising to see him do it again. I hope he doesn’t but he’s the big favorite at both of course. Can’t wait for those tournies.

          • It applies to all the teams with star players. To make matters worse the ITF introduced an iniquitous new rule designed to force players to take part in DC in the Olympic year – if asked. The only way to protect them from being suspended from the Olympic team for non compliance is for the team captain not to ask them to play DC in the first place. The ITF are only interested in pursuing their own agenda – the welfare of their most valuable asset i.e. the players is the least of their concerns.

          • ed251137 (AT 10:52 PM),

            The rule is:
            ¤¤ 1. ELIGIBILITY TO COMPETE AND CONDITIONS OF COMPETING [at Rio 2016]
            …[A player] is part of the final nominated Davis/Fed Cup team at the time of the Draw, and is present at the tie, on a minimum of three (3) occasions in the 4-year Olympic cycle (from the conclusion of the 2012 Olympic Tennis Event until the beginning of the 2016 Olympic Tennis Event), provided that one of those occasions is in either 2015 or 2016. ¤¤
            http://www.itftennis.com/media/198113/198113.pdf

    • Benny,

      Thanks for the update on how Kukushkin pushed Novak to five sets! Wow! Another ugly error fest like Simon! Who would have thought it could happen again.

        • hahaha BigELEVENWatto 😀

          Do you think there’s any chance (a wager on it?) that Ricky will have time for us? As in, we get a virtual unit game for Indian Wells? Or, will he be too tied up at IN and OUT Burger?
          do you?
          don’t you?

          • No, I don’t.

            I suspect the latter based on his first two pool finishes.

            haha!

            Mmmmm, In and Out Burger, I’ve never had the privilege sadly but have heard good things. Steak’n’Shake is pretty good though.

          • Only had the experience once when visiting in San Jose, Ca. It wasn’t anything great but Ricky’s not the only one I’ve heard say they love it.

            I’ll send my drone down there to keep an eye on things.
            Found the in and mostly OUT Burger in La Quinta – close proximity to Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
            ? ?

            TC live – Maria’s is speaking now. She failed a drug test at the AO…no kidding. Meldonium? Used for 10 years using legally. She’s taking full responsibility for it but did not know it was banned. That’s a brave, honest admission. Kudos to Maria.

            Have to look up Meldonium (sp) Meldronot? Not approved by FDA or ITF. Banned by WDA January 1.

            She lists reasons why she was taking it but it’s still unclear exactly what the drug is. Going to go search for it.

            Pardon me for being on the wrong thread with this. I’m watching it live…

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