Cincinnati Masters preview and predictions

Cincinnati had been on course to be the first tournament since Wimbledon in 2017 to feature every member of the Big 4—Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray. But that changed when Nadal withdrew in the wake of Sunday’s triumph in Toronto. Still, the field is loaded. Federer leads the way as the No. 2 seed, followed by Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, and defending champion Grigor Dimitrov.

Western & Southern Open

Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $5,669,360

Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Grigor Dimitrov

Draw analysis: Dimitrov could use all the luck he can get right now, not only because he is enduring a relative slump but also because he has 1000 points to defend this week in Cincinnati. At first glance, Nadal’s exit from the top quarter of the bracket looks like a stroke of good fortune for the Bulgarian. But he would have to reach the quarterfinals for the world No. 1’s absence to become a factor, and that is easier said than done. Dimitrov will open with either Damir Dzumhur or Mischa Zverev and he could meet Djokovic as early as the third round. Milos Raonic is likely to be the first beneficiary of Nadal’s withdrawal, while the door could also be open for the winner of an intriguing first-rounder between Denis Shapovalov and Frances Tiafoe.

The rest of the top half features plenty of big hitters, as Zverev, Marin Cilic, John Isner, and Sam Querrey appear poised to slug it out for a semifinal spot. Isner and Querrey have to go head-to-head in the first round, with the winner possibly to meet Toronto semifinalist Karen Khachanov (who ousted Isner to reach the quarters this past week). Richard Gasquet, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Toronto quarterfinalist Robin Haase are other unseeded floaters to watch in this section.

At the bottom of the draw, Federer should coast through his opener against either Joao Sousa or Peter Gojowyczk before things could get interesting. The second-ranked Swiss is on a collision course with Murray for the third round and potential quarterfinal foes include Dominic Thiem, Kei Nishikori, and Stan Wawrinka. With Thiem struggling and Wawrinka still up-and-down during his comeback, Nishikori may be the best bet.

Del Potro’s third quarter of the bracket is perhaps the most wide open. Kevin Anderson is the favorite based on form, but he could be challenged not only by the Argentine but also by David Goffin, Nick Kyrgios, Borna Coric, or Cincinnati runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas. The 20-year-old Greek, who opens with Goffin, has to be gassed. Del Potro and Kyrgios are both physical question marks and Goffin is not at his best right now, so a real opportunity may await Coric.

First-round upset alert: Sam Querrey over (9) John Isner. These two good friends and big-serving Americans used to play each other with frequency, but they have not gone head-to-head since week one of the 2016 season. Querrey is leading the head-to-head series 5-2, including 1-0 in Cincinnati after prevailing 6-3, 7-6(3) in 2015 (also in the opening round). Isner is just 1-2 in three matches since triumphing—as usual—on the hard courts of Atlanta.

Hot: Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, Kevin Anderson, John Isner, Novak Djokovic, Frances Tiafoe, Mackenzie McDonald, Marco Cecchinato, Damir Dzumhur, Robin Haase, Karen Khachanov, Stefanos Tsitsipas

Cold: Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem, David Ferrer, David Goffin, Pablo Carreno Busta, Nick Kyrgios, Lucas Pouille, Hyeon Chung, Jack Sock, Andrey Rublev, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Kyle Edmund, Alexander Zverev over Marin Cilic, Borna Coric over Kevin Anderson, and Roger Federer over Kei Nishikori

Semifinals: Zverev over Djokovic and Federer over Coric

Final: Zverev over Federer

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