Cincinnati final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Djokovic

August 19, 2018 Ricky Match previews 254

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will be squaring off for the 46th time in their careers when they battle for the Western & Southern Open title on Sunday afternoon.

It could be all tied up 23-23 in the head-to-head series following the final, but Federer has some work to do if he wants that to happen. Although the 37-year-old Swiss trails Djokovic 23-22, he is a perfect 3-0 against the Serb in Cincinnati finals. Federer triumphed 6-1, 7-5 in 2009, 6-0, 7-6(7) in 2012, and 7-6(1), 6-3 in 2015. The latter result came at the peak of their rivalry, as the two all-time greats faced each other an incredible eight times that season. Djokovic is 6-2 in their last eight meetings after winning their most recent showdown 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 in the semis of the 2016 Australian Open.

Djokovic’s 0-3 mark against Federer in Cincinnati is part of a shocking 0-5 lifetime record in finals at this tournament. It is the only Masters 1000 event he has never won, but a resurgent former world No. 1 has once again given himself a chance. Djokovic’s comeback from 2017 was once slow-going, but he captured a fourth Wimbledon title and has bounced back from a Toronto loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas with victories this week over Steve Johnson, Adrian Mannarino, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, and Marin Cilic. The 10th seed has won each of his last four matches in three sets.

Federer’s workload was extensive on Friday, when he played twice in the span of about eight hours and picked up wins at the expense of Leonardo Mayer and Stan Wawrinka. The world No. 2 preceded those results by beating Peter Gojowyczk and he followed them up with a second-set retirement from David Goffin on Saturday night (Federer took the opener in a tiebreaker).

Federer is now 46-8 lifetime in Cincinnati and one win away from an eighth tile.

“It [is] the greatest challenge in Cincinnati, without a doubt–especially here–because he’s been dominating this tournament historically,” Djokovic said of a final against one of his biggest rivals. “He won against me several times in finals. Obviously he feels great in these conditions and this surface.”

Federer is also well-rested, additionally because he skipped Toronto last week, while Djokovic is coming off four straight three-setters. Based on current form and the setting, another Cincinnati should be in the cards for the Swiss–especially if Djokovic’s second serve is as weak as it was against Cilic.

Pick: Federer in 2

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102 Comments on Cincinnati final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Djokovic

      • Just handed his breaks, almost like intentionally. Is it age or his attitude? He was never into this game. Wasn’t confident at all. Nole just played decently. I think it’s mental. Fed doesn’t wouldn’ve played better against anyone else.

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        • Sorry for my mistakes. Will rewrite. I think Fed wouldn’t have played as bad against anyone else. His serve is insecure against Djoko. I can feel his lack of confidence when serving. And the return doesn’t get any worse by his standards. Anyway, let’s see what happens at the USO. Right now looks like Rafa and Novak are favourites.

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  4. Ohohohohohoho!!….Congrats to Nole & certainly to u RC!…God!I never thought he could outlasted Fed in just 2 sets!….And the HISTORY HE MADE!!URGH!!….This guy is truly ONE OF THE GOATS!!

    Enjoy this win RC!!

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      • I knew he will come to this moment RC!….Even when everyone’s write him off for the last 2 years…i never believed it!…He’s one of The Big 4 RC!…He’s special!Just like Rafa,Fed & Andy….

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        • I agree MA…it takes all 4 of them to make the Golden Era. But it will continue to be sad for me that Delpo was left out due to his many wrist surgeries. Also credit to Stan and Cilic – well you know for me, anyway. Stan upset me more than once but now I want him to soar! Andy too. And Delpo. And the new kids – you know who they are.

          I still miss Davydenko. In many ways I look to Goffin to fill that role but it’s not quite the same.

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          • It was his dimples. Yeah, and I like his wife, Marina. Davydenko was (maybe still is) an amazing athlete, Loved his abilities. He’s a father of I think 3 kids now! The first one is about the same age as Federer’s girls.

            Why are you suprised? 😀

          • Coz he’s BALD RC!!Hehehehe….Tho,i admit,he’s an amazing athlete…He looks small but God!…He strikes the ball like he’s 10 feet tall!..uhh!!…

          • Also James Blake. Am I right? Yes, I am. So without posting pictures and ruining this thread, I say au revoir. Time for me to give Mr. RC some attention – before my computer gets smashed. He hates tennis – except in the era of Sampras. I’m trying to get him to bond with the idea of Stefanos Tsitsipas but no luck yet.

          • Rafa is pretty bald, Mira. He’s trying to fight it but not really succeeding, imo. Don’t you think he’s sexy?

          • Yeah!James Blake a 1000 times more sexy than your Davy RC!!…Agree!….And enjoy your time with Mr.RC,RC!!

            Joe…Err…NO!…I don’t find Rafa’s bald is sexy…I loved his younger version’s more…His long hair & rugged look…Like a rock star!…And coupled with his ROCK celebration with his knee high & fist pumping!Like at Wimby 2008..Oh wow!!…THAT IS SEXY JOE!!…

          • In case it wasn’t clear: I think Nadal is very good looking. Fed, not so much. At least he plays beautiful tennis (though not today).

          • Beauty fades, Mira. Maybe Rafa isn’t as good looking as he was at 22. But compare him to his dad or uncle Toni. Most guys would love to look like Rafa.

          • Yeah Joe!…Beauty fades!..And Rafa still good looking & handsome…And i still love looking at him…And coupled with his amazing tennis..He’s a joy to watch Joe!..

            And Rog & Novak r good looking too…Their tennis & physics blending so beautifully together…We’re all feel blessed to have them all in this life Joe..What a treat!

    • He will be the ultimate Goat, so there won’t be any more dispute as to whether Fed or Rafa is the Goat.

      Somebody mentioned that Djoko is going to win the next five slams, if that happens then no question who’s the Goat. Let’s wait and see.

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      • Nah, people get carried away. I’m not sure he has the temperament to last that long competing to accumulate the # of GS titles Fedal have. Seems he needs to get furious too many times during matches to get his energy out of the flat range and into his best level. He thinks too much, hears too much, notices too much. Remember him getting upset in a Roger’s Cup because he could smell someone smoking Marijuana? He played the entire match annoyed. Nats said it best somewhere on this thread.

        I’m happy he’s back in the mix and can get fired up enough to have what it takes to win. But not sure how long he can take it.

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        • Agree, RC (didn’t know about the pot smokers; that’s funny). Main think holding Novak back now, though is simply his age. I don’t think we’ll see him dominate like he did before, even if he wins a few more slams. Enjoy it while it lasts.

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  7. Have to congrat Djoko for doing something Fedal couldn’t do – winning all the Masters plus WTF and winning slams four in a row. And, that’s why I said, he’s the ultimate Goat in the making!

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        • Yes, and he can be forgiven for his cursing outburst on losing his first service game in four years. Who wouldn’t feel that way.

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          • It wasn’t about that at all. I have it on good authority that he only swore because he was expecting a full breakfast this morning and there were only pastries and cheese.

          • Of course ,he can be forgiven! He is human just like the rest of us. What I have an issue with is the uber gentleman and suave status given to him by the media and the commentators. Nole’s racket smash was replayed so many times. Kyrgios’s outbursts are played on loop over and over again. But the god’s transgressions are buried and he even has been winning the sportsmanship award some 30 years in a row ! Sheeeeeesh

          • Well said vmk1 but I’m telling you it was all about the continental breakfast.

            That and English isn’t his first language so there’s that yeah.

          • Huh. I’d say it’s about time he lost his serve, lol! I think he was just frustrated over having a pretty bad night there. Disappointing match.

      • ESPN isn’t into showing Masters trophy ceremonies lately. They didn’t show Toronto either. So many sports, so little time, I guess.

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  8. Novak is the fav for uso is true but Novak may beat Rafa 7 in a row is taking it too far. Fed was very very bad today n his return game was horrible.

    Novak is the fav does not mean he will win uso. What if he draws Stan in first round ? The draw will be key but again that is immaterial. Fed was sure to reach wimby final given his draw but lost unexpectedly to Kevin. We will know in 3 weeks who will win. The draw will be key here …

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      • The draw is key to begin with on paper but then we have seen that draws just open up n don’t play as on paper is what I meant . So we need to wait n watch.

        Lucky Novak is still 4 slams short of Rafa n 7 of Fed. Long way to go still to be the ultimate GOAT..

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        • While draw is important obviously, I think the most important thing to notice is that nobody on field is very solid except Rafa. That’s more decisive than drae. But you never know…

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          • I don’t think Eugene Rafa is more solid than Novak as we speak. I would give Novak the slight edge on a hc n given their most recent 5 set battle at wimby

        • Two years! The way Djoko is able to retrieve any shot, and the way the rest of the field is so hopeless, and Fedal are aging and couldn’t stop Djoko anymore; Stan the man not the man he once was.

          Rafa stopped Djoko at the slams till 2014 FO, thereafter he couldn’t; Fed was worse, the last time he beat Djoko at the slams was Wimbledon 2012. Stan did beat Djoko thrice at the slams but Stan himself is also in his injury comeback. Murray too.

          I initially thought Djoko may take another four years at least (ie winning two slams a year) to get to 20 slams and be the ultimate Goat; but after watching how poor the field is, and how Fedal couldn’t stop Djoko despite Djoko not even at his best level, I think Djoko can win at a quicker pace.

          I also learn something, never underestimate Djoko, the ultimate grinder and fighter, he even outgrind Rafa and forces Rafa to become a more aggressive player to have a chance to get a win over Djoko.

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  10. If Djoko wins USO then he’s in contention for world no.1. I won’t be surprised that he really becomes no.1 this year as the remaining part of the season is where he does well usually.

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  14. Thanks to all for those of you who put up with my obvious antijinxings, especially Big Al.

    With that said, look for Federer to rebound and win his 21 slam in a few weeks in New York!!!

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      • It’s just a troll trying to get some attention. Cheryl’s reputation as a great blogger and someone who knows so much about this game, is there for everyone to see.

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    • Oh lovely a dig at Cheryl but not Ricky! From the misogynist himself! I wasn’t on tennistalk but already have a lot of respect for Cheryl (and Ricky of course).

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  16. Very impressive win for Novak. Well done, and very happy for his fans (of whom I count myself as one). That was probably the best I’ve seen him play since 2016. Fed, on the other hand, was just bad today. His lateral movement was especially bad, especially on the wide serve to the FH, and explains a lot of his errors. He also (I think) did not play smart tennis in failing to adjust a game plan that clearly wasn’t working. An obvious move is to take a step back on the ROS. Novak won over 80% of his second serves, and that just shouldn’t happen.

    In the end Djokovic was just better in all aspects, maybe even the serve, which really let Roger down at some key points. I’m not sure if this was just a bad day. At 37, you always have to be open to it just being part of a marked decline, which I think is closer to the truth, unfortunately. Still, a great win for Djokovic, taking nothing away from him.

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  17. As I said in my cincy draw prediction: Fed for the win over Nole IF Fed is in the mood! Fed was obviously not in the mood tonight and Nole deserves this great win! Nole isn’t playing at his very best but what’s scary is that even his “not 100%” is still better than Rafa at Wimby or Fed at Cincy! Not sure about USO though…we shall see!

    IMO Nole is not clear favorite for USO! His on court behavior and lack of anger management is a bit concerning! Fed was not himself tonight…not surprised though since he lost a set to Wawa and was clearly outplayed for set and a half…Unlike many here after watching Fed play I was not confident Fed would win tonight!

    Rafa should by all means make a clear favorite for USO: the cement in USO suits him best of all HCs and he is well rested and confident after winning Toronto..,but defending title on surface other than clay has always been an issue for Rafa…hope it changes this time!

    Vamos Champ!

    Reply

    • Yeah Nats, I like the way you put it about all three of them. And esp agree about how scary Djoko is, when he’s beating Rafa and Fed when not even playing his best tennis and when Fedal are no.1 and no.2 right now!

      Reply

    • nats,

      Thank you for mentioning Rafa as one of the clear favorites for the USO! I also think Ged is still among the contenders. We don’t know if it was just a bad day at the office or something more. It was a dreadful performance by Fed’s lofty standards at this event.

      It’s a great win for Nibsk, but I still do not think he is THE favorite.

      On ESPN they kept talking about the draw and where Novak will end up. I am certainly not about to write off Rafa at all. That Wimby semifinal was way too close.

      Reply

  18. Early pick -and definitely best odds at 33/1- for the USO: Wawrinka. He could have beaten Rafa in Montreal and should have beaten Fed in Cinci. He’s completely healed, getting better by the match, and will be ready to peak in NY. The slower HC suits him perfectly. Hopefully none of the top players draws him in R1.

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    • I agree that he was competitive against Rafa in Toronto, but I never felt as though Rafa was in danger of losing that match (I was there). Federer? Yes. And yeah, Stan is back on form and whoever gets him in their quarter is dang unlucky.

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      • He had a lead late in both sets, if I remember (maybe just triple break point in the 1st). Rafa was clutch in the big points and Stan choked a bit. I just feel, watching him, that if he can step it up a bit (which he usually does in slams), he can be the guy to beat. But definitely a dark horse pick.

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        • Stan wasn’t leading in the first set against Rafa, just having BPs but that didn’t mean he would win the set, as Rafa more often than not, was able to save many BPs.

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      • Cheryl,

        I agree with your take on that match,even though I was not lucky enough to see it in person. I absolutely never thought Stan would win. I think Stan is definitely back and it’s nice to see.

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        • Come to think of it, had Stan beaten Fed, he would’ve a good chance of reaching the final as Goffin had shoulder issue and had to retire in the SF.

          Stan would’ve played better than Fed did against Djoko in the final (my guess) and might even stop Djoko from winning the title, it’s not improbable.

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          • I feel sorry for Stan, he had a good chance of winning the title had he beaten Fed in the QF; and for most part of fhe match, he was the better player than Fed.

            The way Stan hits the ball, he would be a handful for Djoko in the final. I think Stan won’t shank as much as Fed, and he having beaten Djoko at slam finals would give him much confidence seeing Djoko across the net.

            In fact among the top guys, Stan seems the only one not having any mental burdens when playing against Djoko, unlike Fedal, Cilic, Delpo, Kei, Raonic and whoever.

  19. So the rankings and seedings for the USO is set, with Rafa, Fed, Delpo, Sasha the TOP four seeds; followed by fifth seed Anderson, and Djoko has risen to no.6 after this win, 7th seed Cilic and 8th seed Dimi.

    No.9 to 12 seeds are Thiem, Goffin, Isner and Schwartzman I believe; no.13-16 seeds are PCB, Foggy, Tsitsipas and Edmund if Im not wrong.

    I’m glad Isner and Schwartzman are seeded within the no.9 to 12 range, so Rafa will avoid them in R4.

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  20. Whoa, so Djoko has beaten the 2012, 2014, 2015 champion Fed, the 2016 champion Cilic and the 2017 champion Dimi to win his 2018 Cincy title! Very impressive!

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      • Most likely he would lose to the 2013 champ, who’s playing better tennis than anyone else playing at Cincy! The 2013 champ might get his second Cincy title beating the shanking Fed in the final!

        Fed is no longer hitting his BH the way he did in 2017, and Rafa would be playing better than Stan to beat Fed.

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        • Haven’t seen any of cincy or Montreal lucky!
          But saying he would have beaten the world number one in that dismissive fashion is a. incredibly patronising and b.rubbish as no one knows the outcome of a match between top players in advance

          Reply

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