Thursday best bets (2024 record: 148-147, -20.70 units; Weekly record: 2-2, -0.18 units)
Lorenzo Sonego over Dusan Lajovic (-110) – I’m not sure how Sonego vs. Lajovic is priced evenly, but I’m not complaining! This is at the Foro Italico and Sonego has won three is row against Lajovic, taking a 3-1 lead in the head-to-head series. Clay is arguably a bit more advantageous for Lajovic, but Sonego won their most recent encounter on the slow stuff in straight sets at the 2020 Rio de Janeiro event. At home in Italy, Sonego should once again take care of business.
Emma Navarro over Paula Badosa (-116) – Badosa is coming off a nice win over Mirra Andreeva, but the overall respective bodies of work for Badosa and Navarro cannot be compared. Badosa is 7-9; Navarro is 25-9. Clay doesn’t give Badosa any kind of real advantage, either; in fact, Navarro’s lifetime winning percentage on the surface with a 100-47 record is better than that of the Spaniard. There is no question that the American should be a bigger favorite in this matchup.
Angelique Kerber +3.5 games over Veronika Kudermetova (-110) – I would take Kerber to win this match outright, so getting her on a +3.5 spread is an absolute steal. The faced each other earlier this spring in Miami and Kerber cruised 6-4, 7-5. A move to clay shouldn’t change much; they have an almost identical lifetime record on this surface. Kudermetova’s struggles have continued since Miami, including a bad 6-4, 6-4 loss to Maria Lourdes Carle in Madrid. There is no reason to think she will turn the tide to a drastic extent against Kerber in Rome.
Best underdog value:
Muller (+165) over Fucsovics
Moreno de Alboran (+165) over Van de Zandschulp
Coric (+120) over Draper
Giron (+125) over Ruusuvuori
Nardi (+132) over Altmaier
Putintseva (+110) over Stephens
Best favorite value:
Sonego (-110) over Lajovic
Navarro (-116) over Badosa
Other top match picks
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WTA picks
Swiatek over Pera in 2
Vondrousova over Bogdan in 2
Navarro over Badosa in 2
Gauff over Frech in 2
Putintseva over Stephens in 2
Haddad Maia over Wang in 2
Fruhvirtova over Cirstea in 3
Cristian over Avanesyan in 2
Sramkova over Pedone in 2
Weekly WTA record: 19-10 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 12 out of 19)
Best weekly futures bets
– Iga Swiatek to win Rome (+140)
– Danielle Collins to win Rome (+1300)
– Jelena Ostapenko to win Rome (+4000)
– Casper Ruud to win Rome (+1200)
– Andrey Rublev to win Rome (+1600)
– Alexander Zverev to win Rome (+1100)
Futures betting: +28.55 units through May 5
– Grigor Dimitrov to win Brisbane (3 units at +600)
– Andrey Rublev to win Hong Kong (3 units at +260)
– Aryna Sabalenka to win Australian Open (3 units at +400)
– Jannik Sinner to win Australian Open (3 units at +700)
– Alexander Bublik to win Montpellier (1 unit at +550)
– Ugo Humbert to win Marseille (1 unit at +800)
– Tommy Paul to win Dallas (2 units at +450)
– Alex de Minaur to win Acapulco (3 units at +700)
– Iga Swiatek to win Indian Wells (3 units at +275)
– Jannik Sinner to win Miami (3 units at +300)
– Jan-Lennard Struff to win Munich (1 unit at +1600)
– Casper Ruud to win Barcelona (2 units at +550)
2024 WTA record: 437-283 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 253 out of 437)
2023 WTA record: 951-518 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 618 out of 951)
2022 WTA record: 1084-510 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 714 out of 1084)
2021 WTA record: 1543-765 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 1043 out of 1543)
2020 WTA record: 402-221 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 254 out of 402)
2023 Best Bets record: 275-267-12
2022 Best Bets record: 255-234-6
2021 Best Bets record: 403-391-12
2020 Best Bets record: 173-135-7
Got that way wrong – it was Swiatek that didn’t have a leg to stand on.
Friday best bet. I think Sophia kenin has the old look in her eyes. Has that confidence rising. Playing in Florida I can’t see her losing. Best dog, I like kudermentova
Brengle. Yes the most awkward looking female athlete will grab a set off kanepi who is on a 5 or 6 game losing streak. Love sophia kenin to add as a parlay builder.
Kenin over Begu is free $$$$
Kenin is NEVER free money
I would avoid that match like the plague
Hey Ricky, how you feel about fucsovich over tiafoe +2.5 games? He’s looking good on grass
dont feel good about it
We need picks for Thursday morning. Otte 2-1 +300???
I love the passion ossario sorrano is playing with. I hate when I’m a fan of her opponent cause I can’t pull the trigger. I’m going with thr over.
My best bet lock of the Day is zheng to win 2-1 over begu +300!!! Can protect wager with a 2 team parlay of zheng -225 and over 21.5 kostyuk -120 to make your money back if she wins 2-0. Good luck
Andreescu isn’t losing to Alexandria today. She is playing with a purpose. Linette takes pegula to 3 sets
I think that Pegula will win, but I don’t think it will be one sided
“You can’t pick against Sabalenka; not today and not at any point in this tournament” (Rybakina)
Why not Alcaraz to win 3-1 at +280? He is either gonna win 3-0 or 3-1. Instead of over 34.5 games I’m taking the +280 shot! Sabalenka just completed my 4 team parlay by winning 2-0. Baseball and tennis my two favorite sports for that pizza money!!!
No coco prediction? I hit shelton +625 at 3-1 in a 5 team parlay. Very nice return
Great call with ostapenko! I felt that one too. +1000 2-1 victory!!! I’m concerned with cramping today. Hot and Humid here in the Big 🍎. I’m taking Q over ons(asmatic) and Draper to win at least 2 sets.
Nice picks Ricky, though I would stay away from Thiem. Reminded me of old self vs Richard and Ben. But, vs Halys his level was so sad and painfull to watch. He varies from match to match within a day. If he is gonna play today the way he played vs Halys, it will be 2-0 Rune
Jarry over Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo? I don’t think so. Probably Tits in 2.
who says sebastian baez is the essence of a clay court specialist?, losing to a lucky loser in straight sets. Pathetic.
Fils has a shot today? Maybe I’ll just take the over. This clay courts season is all about the Dogs!
Forget Tara Daniel, Garfia looks invincible right now
Tsitsipas is playing at a very high level now so maybe that will be the difference.
Hey ricky any reason why you have been fading Griekspoor for the last 4 matches? I would say he’s been solid and has looked phenomenal in the last 3. Hard to see how he’ll lose to Thompson after beating ADM and Ruus fairly easily…
because Thompson is better at playing tennis than Griekspoor
especially on grass
Aged brilliantly…
😂😂👍
Potapova refuses to lose and korda beats norrie in straights. Just my opinion even though it’s in his backyard.
UNBELIEVABLE CALL ON THE STEVANOVIC HUGE DOG!!!! RICKY!!!
I had sabalenka in 3 and she choked it away. They both played well though. Rooting for the Lefty, but I don’t think she has the fortitude if it goes 3
Who got a three team parlay today on tennis?
Sabalenka in 3
Does Keys know the keys to winning?
Hoping to get more best bets for this upcoming Vienna and Basel season.
Oh noooo…. You get your analysis from pickwise. I just saw verbatim woukd they wrote for Tiafoe and aranaldi parlay.
I wrote that for Pickswise LOL
I thought Cobolli looked decent and good enough to win a set.