Thursday best bets (2024 record: 148-147, -20.70 units; Weekly record: 2-2, -0.18 units)
Lorenzo Sonego over Dusan Lajovic (-110) – I’m not sure how Sonego vs. Lajovic is priced evenly, but I’m not complaining! This is at the Foro Italico and Sonego has won three is row against Lajovic, taking a 3-1 lead in the head-to-head series. Clay is arguably a bit more advantageous for Lajovic, but Sonego won their most recent encounter on the slow stuff in straight sets at the 2020 Rio de Janeiro event. At home in Italy, Sonego should once again take care of business.
Emma Navarro over Paula Badosa (-116) – Badosa is coming off a nice win over Mirra Andreeva, but the overall respective bodies of work for Badosa and Navarro cannot be compared. Badosa is 7-9; Navarro is 25-9. Clay doesn’t give Badosa any kind of real advantage, either; in fact, Navarro’s lifetime winning percentage on the surface with a 100-47 record is better than that of the Spaniard. There is no question that the American should be a bigger favorite in this matchup.
Angelique Kerber +3.5 games over Veronika Kudermetova (-110) – I would take Kerber to win this match outright, so getting her on a +3.5 spread is an absolute steal. The faced each other earlier this spring in Miami and Kerber cruised 6-4, 7-5. A move to clay shouldn’t change much; they have an almost identical lifetime record on this surface. Kudermetova’s struggles have continued since Miami, including a bad 6-4, 6-4 loss to Maria Lourdes Carle in Madrid. There is no reason to think she will turn the tide to a drastic extent against Kerber in Rome.
Best underdog value:
Muller (+165) over Fucsovics
Moreno de Alboran (+165) over Van de Zandschulp
Coric (+120) over Draper
Giron (+125) over Ruusuvuori
Nardi (+132) over Altmaier
Putintseva (+110) over Stephens
Best favorite value:
Sonego (-110) over Lajovic
Navarro (-116) over Badosa
Other top match picks
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WTA picks
Swiatek over Pera in 2
Vondrousova over Bogdan in 2
Navarro over Badosa in 2
Gauff over Frech in 2
Putintseva over Stephens in 2
Haddad Maia over Wang in 2
Fruhvirtova over Cirstea in 3
Cristian over Avanesyan in 2
Sramkova over Pedone in 2
Weekly WTA record: 19-10 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 12 out of 19)
Best weekly futures bets
– Iga Swiatek to win Rome (+140)
– Danielle Collins to win Rome (+1300)
– Jelena Ostapenko to win Rome (+4000)
– Casper Ruud to win Rome (+1200)
– Andrey Rublev to win Rome (+1600)
– Alexander Zverev to win Rome (+1100)
Futures betting: +28.55 units through May 5
– Grigor Dimitrov to win Brisbane (3 units at +600)
– Andrey Rublev to win Hong Kong (3 units at +260)
– Aryna Sabalenka to win Australian Open (3 units at +400)
– Jannik Sinner to win Australian Open (3 units at +700)
– Alexander Bublik to win Montpellier (1 unit at +550)
– Ugo Humbert to win Marseille (1 unit at +800)
– Tommy Paul to win Dallas (2 units at +450)
– Alex de Minaur to win Acapulco (3 units at +700)
– Iga Swiatek to win Indian Wells (3 units at +275)
– Jannik Sinner to win Miami (3 units at +300)
– Jan-Lennard Struff to win Munich (1 unit at +1600)
– Casper Ruud to win Barcelona (2 units at +550)
2024 WTA record: 437-283 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 253 out of 437)
2023 WTA record: 951-518 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 618 out of 951)
2022 WTA record: 1084-510 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 714 out of 1084)
2021 WTA record: 1543-765 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 1043 out of 1543)
2020 WTA record: 402-221 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 254 out of 402)
2023 Best Bets record: 275-267-12
2022 Best Bets record: 255-234-6
2021 Best Bets record: 403-391-12
2020 Best Bets record: 173-135-7
who does everyone like on Tuesday?
Bedene, Vesely, Poille, Nishioaka -1.5
No way! I have Sabalenka taking out Gauff and her lame forehand.
Told you. That was an ass whooping
How about you?
Be careful with Iga today. She has a cold. Source:women tennis forum. I never comment, but today I have the need because if she does not get well today she may lose to Krejickova. In Ostrava she also had a cold and Krejickova won. Just telling ya this cause it’s potentialy important info.
Spot on, Dragy. She had tissues in her bag, and at every opportunity, she was blowing her nose. Even without a cold, Krejickova is a player to take a set off of her. Barbora belongs in the top 5.
The 2 finals were miserable yesterday. Alvarez is an absolute BEAST. I HATE when Medvedev gives up and doesn’t even go for balls.
I wish I had known that!
Hurkacz-Paul over 22
Murray-Draper, over 21
Badosa-Rybakina over 20
Pera over Cirstea, don’t agree with you on this. Pera had harder opponent. Samsonova was way harder task than Cirstea’s previous round. Gracheva +1,5 set and Rune Warinka over 19,5 games or 20. Those are the best bets of the day in my opinion.
Nice picks Dragy
Ricky was right for Cirstea though, congrats
There is one value bet (WTA): Rybakina over 12,5 (@1,90) games vs Muchova. I don’t think there will be a set without 5 all or tie-break here. Ryba usually drops her level for a half of a set (if not the whole set. I really like her, but she tends to do that), plus if Muchy is healthy (the fact she beat Markéta Vondroušová suggest she is okay), she should keep this close. P.S. I am staying away from overall victory Fritz-Sinner, Sinner is rock solid from the baseline and it’s difficult to beat him. I am picking over 21,5 here @1,60
I think Kenin wins 2-0 not loses 2-0. She is so close to break8ng out of her slump. I see her coming out with a purpose. Another dog is Niemierer. She is fue.
Kenin match will be straight-set beatdown one way or the other. Just not sure which one will be on the winning end.
who ya like on Wednesday?
Pella leads 2-1 h2h but both matches he won were on clay and grass not on a hard court. Cilic has the edge in my opinion because this match is on a hard court.
grass is far worse for Pella vs. Cilic than a hard court.
Liking Roanic tomorrow in straight sets
good pick
Thursday posted
Friday posted
Saturday posted
Sunday posted
It’s Adelaide, not Auckland in Opelka’s pick
terrible sunday with 0-4. Bad selections and bad luck on par
Monday posted
Tuesday posted
Hi Ricky,
Just a note, on the Daily Picks page there is a spelling mistake in the sentence just above the voting boxes, where it says “WTA Adelaide and Hobart picks on the BeTS Bets of the Day page”.
oops thanks!
Wednesday posted
Thursday Week 2 posted
Disaster best bets…
Friday posted. Sorry for delay…traveling to Australia!
maybe just give up betting against Benoit Paire at this point…you’re killing me smalls
I’m on the bandwagon for Saturday!
This is too funny Ricky. I knew to take the opposite of what you predicted on Paire and it paid off. Some players you should just stay away from betting wise especially “best bet of the day” Paire couldn’t be more unpredictable no matter his opponent. I can’t believe you’re putting him in your “best parlay”…so many other huge favorites you could parlay and get an even payout like Thiem, Zverev, Goffin, Anderson, Fritz etc. I appreciate you doing this website but SHEESH
Saturday Week 2 posted.
AO Day 1 posted. Here we go!!!