Basel final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Federer XXXIV

Fed 2It will be the the 34th meeting between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal when two friendly rivals battle for the Basel title on Sunday. They have not faced each other at a tournament this small since Dubai in 2006.

On the day after Halloween, fans at the Swiss Indoors Basel will be getting an extra-special treat. After all, it is not every day that the tennis world witnesses Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal square off at a 500-point event.

In fact, the last time Federer and Nadal faced each other at a tournament of this level was way back in 2006 in the Dubai title match. That remains their only previous encounter to date outside of a Grand Slam, Masters 1000, or year-end championship.

Heading into Sunday’s showdown, the overall head-to-head series stands at 23-10 in favor of Nadal. The Spaniard has won five in a row dating back to the start of the 2013 season. Federer’s last victory over his nemesis came in 2012 Indian Wells semifinals via a 6-3, 6-4 decision. Even on hard courts, Nadal is 9-6 lifetime against the Swiss and he has won their last four such meetings. Federer does, however, have one edge in their past history: he is 4-1 at Nadal’s expense on indoor hard courts.

The 34-year-old not only has the benefit of playing indoors for this one, but also at home in the friendly confines of Switzerland. Federer is an awesome 60-9 lifetime at this tournament, has won it six times, and has now reached the title match in 10 consecutive appearances. The 17-time major champion has advanced so far this week by taking out Mikhail Kukushkin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, David Goffin, and Jack Sock–surrendering sets to Kohlschreiber and Goffin along the way.

Nadal has gone the distance three times already and came close to doing the same–if not losing altogether–in his semifinal versus Richard Gasquet. The third seed, who had previously outlasted Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic, recovered from a break down in the first set and survived an extremely close second to beat Gasquet 6-4, 7-6(7).
Nadal 3 Miami prac
“It’s been a very special week for me,” said Nadal, who added that he felt good after a brief knee-injury scare at 3-1 in the opening set on Saturday.

Nearing the end of what has been a disappointing year by his standards, Nadal is suddenly picking up the pace during what is traditionally by far his worst stretch of any season. The former world No. 1 reached the Beijing final and the Shanghai semis prior to this impressive Basel performance. Since blowing a two-set lead against Fabio Fognini at the U.S. Open, Nadal boasts a 12-2 record.

“It’s definitely a bit of a dream final,” Federer assured. “It’s never quite happened (in Basel). That it’s me against Rafa towards the back end of our careers is nice for the tournament, great for the Swiss fans–who’ve never seen this matchup on Swiss grounds.”

“I have played against Roger hundreds of times around the world,” Nadal commented. “I never played at his home (Switzerland), and tomorrow is a chance.”

It’s also a great opportunity for Federer, but at this point it his hard to like his chances in this particular matchup under any circumstances. This summer, of course, is when an on-fire Federer would have been a heavy favorite over Nadal. Fast forward a few months and Federer’s form–and perhaps motivation–has dipped considerably. He is no longer playing the kind of tennis that can blow his opponent of the court in two quick sets. Nadal, who would have an obvious mental edge in any long three-setter, should be able to capitalize.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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62 Comments on Basel final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Federer XXXIV

  1. Imagine how much a win over Fed here can add to Rafa’s confidence, that at least shows him he can beat a top 3 guy.

    Its still Rafa’s serve and his FH that can break down at crucial moments. The fighting spirit is there but not all parts of his game are working well. I think Rafa has to move up the court more often to make up for loss of speed and power. Hes hitting short balls that Fed could capitalize on.

    • I always say that!! He just LOVES camping out at the baseline!! Its just something he cant get out of. Rafa knows that too but its when he does not trust his game he plays so safe, it quite annoying!!!

  2. I was surprised to know that this was Rafa’s first and only final in Basel!! Disappointed that he lost but Rafa can only gain confidence and be encouraged by this match and his performance here in Basel. He knows how to fight and if he keeps ironing those kinks he will get there. He is ending this year on a positive note, never have done well during this time, so he should be proud. But like many said here, Rafa needs to iron some of those kinks if he wants to get on top of his game again. These matches are good for him so he can improve for the coming season. I cant wait! Congratulations to Fed and his fans!!

  3. The Basel Tournament website, Nov. 1, 2015 : €€ Nadal: the winner of hearts
    He fought, he worked, he sweated, Nadal did what he does best, but the Spaniard missed a few points in the final that he really should have scored. Rafael Nadal came up short against his long-time arch rival Roger Federer, losing 3:6 in the third set. Although he failed to clinch the title, this has been a successful Swiss Indoors for the world’s best clay-court player. β€œIt was a week full of positives for me. I would like to thank the Swiss fans for their support over the past seven days. Today it’s understandable that I didn’t receive quite as much applause as I have on previous occasions this week,” said the Spaniard. As always, the Majorcan was gracious, even in defeat. He is a true sportsman…
    What have we learned from Basel: Nadal is back. In the sun and heat of Australia at the Yara River in Melbourne, the Spaniard will be more effective and might even regain his invincibility on the red surface. He leaves St. Jakob as the proud winner of hearts. €€
    Read more in:
    http://www.swissindoorsbasel.ch/en-us/News/Tournament-News/ArtMID/6909/ArticleID/22678/Nadal-the-winner-of-hearts

  4. Dang. Possibly Rosol in R2? Rafa will be rooting for GGL that’s for sure. No way Rosol will lose now that he may play Rafa though lol.

  5. @ augusta08 says:
    November 1, 2015 at 6:00 pm

    I see. That’s why he played last year even though he was unwell. This year they got their money’s worth as he got to the final. I’m glad that everyone acknowledges that the match could have gone either way.

    Is Basel not mandatory then?

    • nadline10 ( at 6:38 pm),

      The ATP-500 tournaments are not mandatory events, but top 30 players (based on the year-end ATP Rankings) must play a minimum of four 500 level tournaments during the calendar year, including at least one event following the US Open (Monte Carlo Masters 1000 event will count towards the minimum of four and all penalties apply).
      [Source: ATP website]

  6. I dont remember the exact details but a few years back I recall there was some bad feeling between Rodger and the tournament director over his demand for a higher fee. He reckoned he had paid his dues and some by not demanding the going rate for his appearances for years and he felt he was being exploited.

  7. We all know that there are still parts of Rafa’s game that are not working well enough at this point in time. But I do not think that winning a 500 tournament would suddenly give Rafa tons of confidence and indicate that he is back to his best. A title is always good, but it’s not the be-all and end-all. At this stage of Rafa’s career, it’s all about the slams. That is what he is aiming for and working towards now.

    I would always prefer that Rafa win, that is a given. But this is a loss that I can live with and I think Rafa, too. The match turned on a few points and it could have gone either way. Rafa stayed in it and kept on fighting and managed to turn things around in that second set. He wasn’t able to do this earlier this year.

    This is still a good result. Rafa can move on to Paris and know that he is finally playing well, that he’s competing. I have confidence that he will address the issues in his game that still need work. He knows what has to be done.

    • Certainly better than losing. How many times Rafa came from behind to win this week? And if he could do it to Fed on Fed’s homeground, you think it wont boost his confidence for the coming tournaments? At least if he faces similar scenario in future, having beaten the no.2 or 3 player in such a manner may give him added confidence to overcome his opponents.

      He came close at Shanghai vs Tsonga and now vs Fed, still couldnt get over the finishing line. If he lost to Fed 6-3, 6-4, at least I could say that Fed was too good, just like Novak in Beijing. Its at crucial moments that he faltered and that really made the loss real bitter and hard to swallow. If they went to a tiebreak and Fed played brilliantly to win, I would say too good to Fed, but that’s not the case here.

      • understand your disappointment but the thing is, it is never easy to just play on the baseline or play aggressively with ‘colm’ in key moments when you have not done that in a long time. You got to have a lot of confidence in your ability to do that at the big stages. Rafa played a pretty good final. He missed a couple of forehands that he should definitely have made. I also think rafa could easily have broken in the last game! he had a forehand pass lined up at 15-15 but missed it as he attempted a DTL winner…then he set up a forehand and hit directly at fed on deuce , and fed put that away for a volley winner.

        Rafa started the match very positively! he dominated in his first two service games and that was encouraging. He also played a good point on 3-2 BP but fed hit an incredible CC forehand pass.

        I think, we should cut rafa some slack here. He will also be much more ready for this ultra aggressive fed. Fed made the mistake of not rushing the net more often in set 2 (only had 5 approaches)… he adjuted in set 3…. I also felt rafa was a bit confused about his ROS court positioning (esp on 2nd serves)… I loved the way he hit two return winners in the final game πŸ™‚

        I think this loss is MUCH better than a 6-3 6-4 type loss. The way rafa has been progressing, this week has been very positive. In my view, no reason to be too disappointed. Rafa will improve more by the time WTF is here.

        His second serve is the biggest concern for me though. Improvements have been too slow in that department. He just needs to look at Novak. Fed always had a great one but today served bigger than usual second serves.

      • agree with Ricky and Hawkeye..

        Rafa of 2010 and 2013 did not do anything special in indoor conditions so why expect the rafa of 2015 to defeat federer in a final! He did a pretty good job and his fighting skills almost won him the match. It was close!

        Rafa played a great match overall but he was just not 100% confident about his some of his abilities….

        We would probably have won this match on any other surface…. may be fed would have won on grass but outdoors is different….

      • lucky,

        I did not say that a win here over Fed would not have given Rafa confidence. If you read what I wrote, I said that it would not suddenly give Rafa tons of confidence. Of course, it would have helped him gain some confidence. But I said it’s not the be-all and end-all. I also said that I always want Rafa to win. Of course, I would have preferred that he won this final. That goes without saying. I want to be clear as to what I am saying and what I am not saying.

        I remember what I was saying earlier this year after those terrible losses in which Rafa just wasn’t able to even compete. I kept saying – it’s the way he’s losing, not the fact that he’s losing. Rafa is going to have his losses. He has said this is the sport. There are ups and downs, great victories and tough losses. But Rafa lost that will to win, that incredible mental strength that made him play his best when his back was against the wall. Now he is playing like that again, competing, finding solutions in matches, being aggressive and not giving up. That’s one of the keys to his greatness.

        This is why I say that I can live with this loss. Because Rafa gave it his best shot and the match turned on a few shots. I am not going to freak out and act like it’s the end of the world because he didn’t beat Fed here. How often do we hear the familiar refrain – if it’s indoor hard courts, then Rafa doesn’t stand a chance? Fed has the advantage over Rafa on indoor hard courts. So I take it as a positive that Rafa made this a tough match.

        If Rafa fell apart every time he had a loss, then he would have retired a long time ago. He’s smart enough to see the big picture. I do not agree at all about living with Rafa losing 6-3, 6-4 to Fed. Absolutely not! It would not necessarily mean that Fed was too good. It could also mean that Rafa wasn’t able to compete on a good enough level to make the match competitive.

        Rafa did not falter. He missed some shots here and there. So did Fed. But in the end Fed got the break of serve in that third set. However, even as he tried to serve it out, Rafa was still in there fighting. A missed forehand and he might well have broken Fed. He made him earn it. This loss I can live with and I believe Rafa can, too. He said it himself in his post-match presser – he was able to be competitive. For a guy who was losing to the likes of Fog, Raonic and Verdasco, that’s a sign of progress. The wins and titles will follow.

    • I dont understand why when playing on indoor quick HCs, Rafa was still taking a very defensive position behind the baseline. He had given all his opponents so much space to work with and they could just move forward and pushed Rafa even further behind the baseline. Rafa was returning short and hitting short balls as a result of his poor court position.

      If we talk about things he needs to improve, I think this is something he has to look into, if not he has to grind his body to dust playing three sets matches one after another tournament after tournament. Its surprising that Toni and Rafa failed to address this issue after so long.

      • He has to start between his ears.

        Everything else will take care of itself. (Except maybe for his serve and knees. He needs a serving coach. Or maybe his back is stopping him from serving like he did in 2013. I think that’s what caused his problems in AO 2014 vs Stan).

      • haha….it is no rocket science that he needs to be close to the baseline. he himself has said this is sometihng he intends to do for 2016 and his aggressive ROS positioning is for that. He made ajdustments against Rosol and Cilic to turn the tables and court positioning was one of those adjustments.

        However, it is simply not a on-off switch when it comes to employing a deep court positioning. It was due to roger’s ultra-aggressive game plan and littleee bit lack of conviction in rafa’s mind. Once he wins more matches with an offensive position, he will automatically stick to it more.

        @hawkeye, I wish he would get a serving coach. Oscar Borras did wonders to his serve but then rafa re-adopted some bad serving habits in 2011 :S i just cannot fathom that…he improved after 2011 but his serve is still not as good as it should be.

        Toni lacks the expertise in this area. You just need to look at rafa’s serving motion in 2005 RG to see how underdeveoped his motion was! Toni has done a good job to learn himself and then help rafa but in some areas, it would be better to get help.

        Fed has always got a wealth of ideas from so many great coaches.

        Rafa’s backhand slice is also a shot that frustrates me. almost stagnant progress

      • Because he is a defensive baseliner and will always be like I have always said. That is his bread and butter strategy and the only place it doesn’t work at all is Indoors which by some stroke of divine providence are at least somewhat of an advantage to the attacker, although not everywhere.

    • Well if Fed could beat Rafa the way Novak did at Beijing then there’s nothing Rafa could do because his opponents were simply too good. Did Rafa fall apart after losing 6-2,6-2 to Novak? He didnt because he knew he wasnt ready to beat Novak. Frankly, this wasnt the Fed of Cincy but an error prone and shanking Fed though still dangerous because its indoor HC.

      I dont think I said Rafa would be devastated about this loss. However, if this trend of coming close to winning but still couldnt win continues, will he be happy just being the runner up or being the semifinalist? He said hes preparing and getting ready for 2016 but there’re only two more tournaments left this year. Will he suddenly become better come Jan 2016 if he’s still not able to win matches like this?

  8. Found it. Inter web google is amaaaaaazing…..

    https://tenngrand.com/2015/09/08/u-s-open-qf-previews-and-picks-federer-vs-gasquet-wawrinka-vs-anderson/comment-page-3/#comment-214710

    Ricky can’t recall what he said six weeks ago…

    hawkeye63 says:
    September 10, 2015 at 2:38 pm
    No, I think Rafa will make WTF. He is already 7th in the race and he will be 6th next week/

    Ricky Dimon says:
    September 10, 2015 at 2:39 pm
    he will qualify. he just won’t play.

    hawkeye63 says:
    September 10, 2015 at 2:42 pm
    Right, even though it is his stated goal for the year.

  9. Thats the problem with Rafa these days – unable to stay calm. Its when he felt he had nothing to lose ie hes not going to win that he played freely , the way he did vs Novak. He was going for his shots and had Novak taking risks, hitting the lines in order to beat him. Its when Rafa wasnt playing freely (ie having some expectations and feeling nervous) that he started thinking too much that he faltered at crucial moments, like vs Tsonga at Shanghai and vs Fed now.

    The court positioning, its an ongoing issue and thats something frustrating. After his successful NAHC swing in 2013, he reverted to defensive court position during the Asian and Indoor swing that year and thereafter. The aggressive Rafa never appear again. Its like he did something to specifically win something (USO 2010 and 2013) and then didnt want to continue with those good things thereafter.

  10. There is one tricky thing though. Rafa thrives on pummeling fed’s backhand with heavy topspin and THAT is difficult to do when you are very close to the baseline. He usually needs a bit more time and generate loads of spin with his big racket swing. He has to strike a balance. Breaking fed’s backhand that way is a great tactic obviously but he needs to be careful. If he does not get good length, he is doomed because he has already lost so much court.

      • that is true….but he did make some progress in moving closer to the baseline during some matches this week. And, against Cilic, he was determined to take second serve returns on the rise but because that was not working, he reverted to a deeper position and that helped him in some moments.

        I think this is something really out of his comfort zone and he needs loads of confidence to do it. Slower surfaces will obviously help.

        Rafa did not play much close to the baseline in IW 2013 but somehow found a way to win , beating delpo in the final. He gained so much confidence that he was then able to play so aggressively in the NA hard court swing.

        Rafa has been talking a lot about staying close to the baseline. It’s not that he is defending his strategy to stay deep behind the baseline. he is also standing closer to the baseline in practice sessions! I think, with more victories, will gradually implement it.

        I know it can get very frustrating at times :/

    • vamosrafa,

      I think you make a good point about Rafa needing more time to go after Fed’s backhand. So he does have to try to strike a balance. It’s not just black or white.

      Regarding Rafa’s tendency to adapt a defensive position behind the baseline, this is his default mode. So that’s what he instinctively seems to do, especially when he’s lacking confidence. It’s not like Rafa is incapable of playing aggressive tennis or transitioning well from defense to offense. It’s between the ears. In that instance, I agree with hawkeye.

      Rafa lost his mental strength and confidence and played accordingly standing well behind the baseline. But now we see him moving forward into the court to take his shots earlier and also moving up to receive second serves. There are all things that he seems to be making a concerted effort to do now. It’s paying off. We just need to give him the time he needs for it to all come together.

  11. In 2010 Rafa only played one indoor event ie the WTF and he reached the final losing in three sets to an on fire Fed. In 2013 Rafa played two events on indoor HCs, reached the SF at Paris and final at WTF, not forgetting both years Rafa had won so much right up to the USO and not winning after the USO was still reasonable.

    In 2015, Rafa was picking up momentum from Beijing onwards and Fed wasnt on fire this Basel tournament, if not Rafa wont be close to beating him!

    To expect Rafa, during his best years of 2010 and 2013 to win from start to end of season was expecting too much. Novak in 2011 wasnt able to do that. In 2012, Novak lost at Paris Masters in his first match there; in both 2013/2014 Novak didnt do well at NAHC swing leading up to USO so he had the energy and desire to do well during the Asian and indoor swing. We shall see how well Novak would play at Paris and London this year.

    Fed during his best years 2005-2007 wasnt playing many events after the USO. Moreover hes the HC Goat so he doing well to win Basel and WTF during those times were understandable.

  12. I did not see the match , reading comments here, getting mixed views

    Few questions.

    How much would we rate Rafa out of 10?

    Is this win anyway going to shape things to come going forth for Fed vs Rafa?

    Did Fed use his net game a lot and did Rafa counter it? What about SABR?

    BTW people, on Feds fav surface in Dubai and Cincy..Fed dismantled Novak in straights and Novak is the best player this season and is not bad on fast courts ..Atleast Rafa took it to 3 on Feds fav surface and his worst. Some perspective?

    • Sanju,

      If you have been reading my comments, then you know my perspective on this match. I haven’t thought about rating Rafa in this match. He was not at his absolute best. But Rafa is still working to come back. After the kind of year he has had, I think pushing Fed in Basel to three sets and keeping it close, was a good result.

      Fed used the net game a lot, but Rafa did counter with passing shots. I think the SABR was a non factor in this match.

      We can choose to look at this result each in our own way. I would have been thrilled to see Rafa beat Fed at Basel. It would have been a wonderful moment for him. But I am not downhearted or discouraged about this loss at all. Considering how Rafa was playing some months ago, I think he’s made remarkable progress and will continue to do so.

  13. Fed saying ‘ This win was more important for me than him said it all.

    I am disappointed he lost but still happy that he took it to 3 and it was well fought.

  14. ..but Fed was playing better at Dubai and Cincy imo. Fed at Basel is more error prone, and its Rafa across the net regardless of whatever surface.

    Yes theres positive to take from this tournament for its his first indoor HC final since WTF2013. Still he came out short where it mattered just like at Shanghai. There’s still some way to go before he could get back on track and I’m not sure he could be in time for the AO.

  15. Re: the comment about Rafa being a defensive baseliner. Rafa wasnt defensive from day one. The way he beat Fed at Miami 2004 and they way he played against Gonzo and Hewitt back then hardly made him qualified as a defensive baseliner.

    Its the several years of grinding and winning on clay that make him a defensive baseliner now.

  16. I fear many of my responses in the past 36 hours are out of sequence, or have appeared so late as to be irrelevant.. I am having serious computer and broadband issues. Thank you for your patience everybody until normal service is resumed.

  17. this was the best opportunity for Fed to beat Rafa…we all know Rafa is work in progress and he is still fighting his own demons…more disadvantage caused by the indoor surface which has never been Rafa’s forte…

    I congratulate Fed’s fans! They are so lucky! I wish our Rafa would be wining titles at the age of 35…

    Rafa played a very good match…Fed implemented more varieties and it’s good for Rafa to gain experience from the improved version of Fed that has been developed according to Fed’s age…I hope Rafa learns from it and applies some of it in his own case…

    Rafa’s serve is his biggest weakness….he will have to work further on it and hiring someone new to help would mean volume…hope Uncle T. gets that…

    most of my friends who were neutral on this one said that Rafa is surely coming back…he is almost there and as I previously stated the most important thing is for Rafa to be healthy and ready to win the AO 2016…as far as I am concerned these are all worm-up tournaments and good opportunity to gain some points…

    I repeat: Rafa had nothing to prove there…he would have liked to have won the title but I bet he would trade this win anytime for a win over Fed at the WTF…and if this Rafa shows up in London with a bit more calm he sure will beat Fed…let’s wait and see…

    and the most encouraging that I am seeing from Rafa this fall is that Rafa’s desire for success becomes greater than his fear of failure! Amen to that! Welcome back Rafa!!!

    Vamos Rafa!

  18. God the negativity about Rafa here is killing me :-). Just give it a rest people. He ain’t that bad. He surpassed our expectations last 3 tournaments. Let us hope for more better outcomes.

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