Basel final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Federer XXXIV

Fed 2It will be the the 34th meeting between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal when two friendly rivals battle for the Basel title on Sunday. They have not faced each other at a tournament this small since Dubai in 2006.

On the day after Halloween, fans at the Swiss Indoors Basel will be getting an extra-special treat. After all, it is not every day that the tennis world witnesses Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal square off at a 500-point event.

In fact, the last time Federer and Nadal faced each other at a tournament of this level was way back in 2006 in the Dubai title match. That remains their only previous encounter to date outside of a Grand Slam, Masters 1000, or year-end championship.

Heading into Sunday’s showdown, the overall head-to-head series stands at 23-10 in favor of Nadal. The Spaniard has won five in a row dating back to the start of the 2013 season. Federer’s last victory over his nemesis came in 2012 Indian Wells semifinals via a 6-3, 6-4 decision. Even on hard courts, Nadal is 9-6 lifetime against the Swiss and he has won their last four such meetings. Federer does, however, have one edge in their past history: he is 4-1 at Nadal’s expense on indoor hard courts.

The 34-year-old not only has the benefit of playing indoors for this one, but also at home in the friendly confines of Switzerland. Federer is an awesome 60-9 lifetime at this tournament, has won it six times, and has now reached the title match in 10 consecutive appearances. The 17-time major champion has advanced so far this week by taking out Mikhail Kukushkin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, David Goffin, and Jack Sock–surrendering sets to Kohlschreiber and Goffin along the way.

Nadal has gone the distance three times already and came close to doing the same–if not losing altogether–in his semifinal versus Richard Gasquet. The third seed, who had previously outlasted Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic, recovered from a break down in the first set and survived an extremely close second to beat Gasquet 6-4, 7-6(7).
Nadal 3 Miami prac
“It’s been a very special week for me,” said Nadal, who added that he felt good after a brief knee-injury scare at 3-1 in the opening set on Saturday.

Nearing the end of what has been a disappointing year by his standards, Nadal is suddenly picking up the pace during what is traditionally by far his worst stretch of any season. The former world No. 1 reached the Beijing final and the Shanghai semis prior to this impressive Basel performance. Since blowing a two-set lead against Fabio Fognini at the U.S. Open, Nadal boasts a 12-2 record.

“It’s definitely a bit of a dream final,” Federer assured. “It’s never quite happened (in Basel). That it’s me against Rafa towards the back end of our careers is nice for the tournament, great for the Swiss fans–who’ve never seen this matchup on Swiss grounds.”

“I have played against Roger hundreds of times around the world,” Nadal commented. “I never played at his home (Switzerland), and tomorrow is a chance.”

It’s also a great opportunity for Federer, but at this point it his hard to like his chances in this particular matchup under any circumstances. This summer, of course, is when an on-fire Federer would have been a heavy favorite over Nadal. Fast forward a few months and Federer’s form–and perhaps motivation–has dipped considerably. He is no longer playing the kind of tennis that can blow his opponent of the court in two quick sets. Nadal, who would have an obvious mental edge in any long three-setter, should be able to capitalize.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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105 Comments on Basel final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Federer XXXIV

  1. Definitely a postive week and performance πŸ™‚ Nothing to complain about. He took it to Roger on his favorite court. πŸ™‚

  2. Rafa was fighting right to the end. That shot he hit that was in to get him to deuce was really something. Now I can’t remember if it was a forehand or a backhand. I am thinking it was a cc backhand. That shot really came to life in this match.

    One break and that was it. Rafa has to work on that second serve! But he made a match of it and did very well. No shame in losing in three tough sets on this court in Fed’s home town.

    Rafa will be disappointed but will take some real positives out of this. He really showed something in coming back to win that second set.

  3. I hope people here also realize federer is not a joke! facing federer does not mean rafa’s won the title already. Fed’s the best indoors overall and only novak has gotten the better of him over the past few years. Rafa CAN beat him but he needs to be on top of his game…

    And these are the kind of matches that make me wish Rafa had at least hired a coach just to improve his serve. To be honest, uncle Toni does not know much about serving and stuff…. Rafa’s second serve should also be improved a lot!

    sighhh…. anyway, well done team rafa! the improvements are quite significant. Rafa and his team are on the right path….

    • The thing is this Fed is not exactly at the top of his game and Rafa has his chances but doesnt take them. I wonder when Rafa is going to win another indoor HC title and beating Fed to get it.

      I also know what Rafa is going to say….

      Anyway I think Rafa doesnt expect to win here, I have a feeling he doesnt expect himself to win anything indoors.

    • The thing is this Fed is not exactly at the top of his game and Rafa has his chances but doesnt take them. I wonder when Rafa is going to win another indoor HC title and beating Fed to get it.

      I also know what Rafa is going to say….

      Anyway I think Rafa doesnt expect to win here, I have a feeling he doesnt expect himself to win anything indoors.

    • Vamosrafa, my thoughts exactly. Toni had failed since day one to see the advantage of having a good to great serve and thus had never concentrated on helping Rafa to work on and developed his serve from young. He had failed to help Rafa realized his full potential imo, resulting in Rafa having to work so hard to hold serves at times, when the likes of Fed or Novak could just serve an ace to help them hold serve or at least got out of troubles.

      Yes, they should hire someone who could really help Rafa develop a great serve, at least for playing on grass and fast HCs, if Rafa finds it too burdensome on his shoulders to serve big the whole season.

  4. Really dont like the way Rafa plays this match. He has all the chances to break and yet he gets broken by playing a lousy service game.

    He’s still far from the top three players; still too defensive. What a missed opportunity to get an indoor HC title. Fed has made many errors in this match but too bad Rafa couldnt take advantage. Fast courts are really not Rafa’s forte, I think his only hope is on the slower surfaces.

    • lucky,

      This is one time when I have to disagree with you. I thought Rafa played very well, especially in coming back to win that second set. He was in this right to the end.

      • Whats the point of being close but still couldnt win a match when half the time you’re playing better than your opponent? If Rafa is playing poorly I can understand but hes playing well and went the distance and faltered in the end. I dont see anything to be happy about, unless Rafa has never dreamt of winnung this and is just happy to be in the final.

        • the guy has won 14 major titles. a 500 means nothing. all that matter was playing well, which he did (especially by his recent standards)

      • Two sides to a coin. Its a 500 yet he couldnt win, playing well and still couldnt win. I doubt he can have better results at Paris Masters and WTF.

      • Ricky,

        Again thanks! The voice of reason! Absolutely! Is a win in a 500 tournament going to mean something in the grand scheme of things? Is that what Rafa is really aiming for in his career now?

        He played consistently well on an indoor hard court tournament, reached the final after getting to the final in Beijing and semi of Shanghai. Since when does Rafa win titles in this part of the tennis year? He has pretty much matched his results from 2013 for this part of the year.

        Rafa showed that will to win, that fighting spirit in coming back in his matches against tough opponents who all had the game to give him trouble here. He played the best tennis of the year in this tournament. It’s a work in progress. It’s all about the big picture. Winning this title would not have meant that Rafa was back, at his best, on top of his game. This is all about being ready for 2016.

        If this was back in the summer, Fed would have cruised to any easy win. But it didn’t happen that way. Rafa was in this right to the end. Now it’s all about finishing up the year decently and working on his game for next year.

  5. Yes, that second serve has to be worked on for sure. Rafa is under too much pressure in key moments of matches and needs a second serve that he can rely on to hold his serve.

    Of course Fed is not a joke indoors. If you know anything about tennis, then you know that. But that’s why this was so satisfying in many ways. Fed had to fight for it right to the end.

    Rafa will know that he could have won this match. He was in it. So he can take all the good things and move forward.

    Rafa had his chances even in that last game when Fed was serving for the match. That’s all you can ask of him, giving it his all to the end.

  6. Should’ve been straight sets but given Roger’s play this week I’ll take it. Onto WTF. Bigger fish to fry. But before then, bring in the Pizza Party. πŸ™‚

      • Doesn’t matter. This is indoor hard and Roger was playing terrible all week. Considering his lack of focus and quite possibly some back niggles given his abbreviated service motion, I’ll take three sets. I hope he skips Paris now. Already played a lot this year.

      • Exactly and yet he blew it! Frankly this Fed is beatable and yet Rafa managed to lose it. I can see the disappointment on Rafa’s face.

      • At 34, he’s played a lot for the entirety of 2015. He still has WTF to go and then that useless exho that he really shouldn’t be participating in. *facepalm*

      • Exactly…At some point I posted but since I was at my summer house where internet is slow my post did not get through…
        I said that Fed had something to prove in this match and Rafa had nothing to prove…wining this title wouldn’t make a big difference…what matters is Rafa playing great match…he is getting there…
        Vamos!

      • @Ricky 3:56 Fed was much better than Nadal today. Just because you picked Nadal to win doesn’t mean he was playing better than Fed. Except the first few games Fed was better through out and should have won in straights but it went to 3 but I ‘m glad it went to 3 as otherwise everyone would have said had it would have went to 3 Nadal would have won as Fed would falter. Anyway it was Fed’s home town and indoor court, the only worrying fact was his lacklustre performance since US open but he won and that’s it

      • Fed was better in the second set and he was playing without fear, I didn’t see the complete statistics I only know they both had one break chance which Nadal took and Fed didn’t. And just one or two forehands would not decide the outcome and these errors you can just ignore as Unforced errors because like this Fed misses many easy backhand and forehand which if he doesn’t miss then nobody can defeat him.
        Errors comes with risk and you have to accept it

  7. Funnily enough, although he won in the end, I think it is Federer who has more to worry about than Rafa. He wont be feeling ecstatic about how close he was to messing up.

    You could almost hear Djokovic chortling to himself as that match unfolded.

  8. Uncle Toni ran over to Fed’s box and congragulated Fed’s uncle. Fed deserved this considering he conquered his mental demons against Rafa in this match. But Rafa has plenty to be happy out.

      • Fed’s had far more crushing losses than a Basel final and bounced back just fine. I haven’t seen anyone with the kind of optimism he exudes. At 34, I’m pretty sure hes really happy with his overall play no matter what. 23-24 losses at this point is the same thing, really. He’s not going to bridge that gap no matter what.

      • vmk: I agreet in terms of ranking points he’s so far ahead it’ll be a long time before he can be challenged but Djokovic is chasing the entries in the Record books rather than points as such. He is dreaming of Goatdom. The more records held by Federer and Rafa that he can smash the happier kid goat he will be.

      • @Ricky. It occurred to me during the match this was almost certainly the last time we’ll see them competing against each– apart from exhibitions.

  9. So some posters here think this was not an encouraging performance…will see it myself and share my perspective.

    Just looking at the results, I think it is a good win!

    and federer eventually had 44 winners to 32 UE…at least the stats are pretty good!

    • vamosrafa,

      I do not agree with those who think this was not a good performance. As you said, you can watch it for yourself and come to your own conclusions. I would be interested to hear them! However for myself, I am pleased with the way Rafa played. This could have been a straight sets loss, but Rafa fought back in that second set and took it to a third set. In Fed’s house, where he has won so many times.

      Ricky said it was two forehands that cost Rafa the match. That and his second serve. Rafa and Uncle Toni have to do something about that. You look at Novak and see that he has a strong second serve. Same with Fed. This has been a liability for Rafa. He has to address it. But this match came down to a few shots. Rafa could have easily been the winner and Fed knows it.

      Rafa had another slow start in that first set, something he’s been doing throughout this tournament. So it took him a set to get going. But as we have seen him do in his previous matches, he made adjustments and shifted the dynamic of the match. It’s a good thing.

      Of course, I would have been happier if Rafa had won. But he did himself proud.

  10. I agree with Ricky. Rafa wanted to win, but Fed needed to win. This is his home town where he’s dominated. Yet Rafa pushed him to the brink.

    Maybe Fed fans will see it differently, but I wouldn’t be gloating about Fed having to battle to beat Rafa on an indoor hard court. Fed got knocked out of Shanghai in his first match, losing to a qualifier, so he needed this one.

    Rafa now knows that he was competitive and took it to Fed on this surface. This match is going to give Rafa a lot of confidence, especially for the WTF. I continue to be amazed at how well Rafa has played in this part of the tennis year.

    Novak doesn’t have anything to fear from anyone right now. However, I do agree with ed about waiting until clay court season. If Rafa can continue this way, maybe even sooner! πŸ™‚

    • Whats the point of being competitive, even has the edge over your opponent and still couldnt win?

      Im disappointed because Rafa was playing well enough to win, though not playing ideal indoor HC tennis, had chances to break his opponent and then served for the match, yet he couldnt break (ok accepted given how Fed serves) and worse still, faltered in his own service game and got broken. This is the storyline this whole season and now it happened in a final.

      Yes its Fed on an indoor HC but Fed was making all kinds of errors when Rafa attacked his BHs and Rafa ended up being the one who blinked and lost.

      I dont care how Fed and his fans think, whats more important is how Rafa is going to win when it matters, ie title matches.

  11. Actually Fed did not have to win this one. He is 34 years old battling a player who has had his number throughout his prime. As some pointed out, Rafa is the favorite no matter where he plays Fed. So Fed is beating the odds everytime he beats Rafa especially in the twilight of his career

    • I don’t agree. This should have been an easy win for Fed. The fact that he has to struggle so hard to win doesn’t bode well for him. He got one against Rafa on his best surface in his home town. He did what he was supposed to do, only it was a lot harder than it should have been. Rafa is going to take a lot of good things out of this match.

  12. Why would Novak worry about Rafa? Novak just play his usual game, maybe with more focus and need not even get out of his comfort zone to beat Rafa. Rafa OTOH has to work so hard and still fail. To me Rafa is playing a wrong strategy vs Novak, you cant outhit Novak from the baseline, you have to beat him with varieties if you cant hit like Stan or Delpo from the baseline.

    Rafa ‘s disadvantage is still his serve. Fed ( and Novak) can rely on his/their serves to get out of troubles but Rafa couldnt and faltered in the end.

    • This wasn’t a bad week for Nadal but he was unconvincing in in most of his matches, he could have or should have lost to Rosol.

      • Could have and should have don’t mean anything. It’s the result that counts. The fact that Rafa won when he should have lost is what is important. It won’t say should have or could have on the record. That’s what Rafa has done throughout his career. He’s been unable to do it this year until now.

    • Nobody said that Novak is worrying about Rafa now. He’s not worrying about anybody. Rafa is working to get back to his best so that he can be competitive with Novak and beat him again. He’s managed to do it the past few years until this year.

      We all know that Rafa’s second serve is a liability. I have been saying that for a while now. It’s something that Rafa and Uncle Toni will have to address and work on.

      • That doesn’t mean that Rafa’s second serve isn’t a liability. Against someone like Novak with his superb ROS, Rafa doesn’t win enough second serve points. It’s happened to him quite a bit this year. I do think that he’s shown improvement overall with his serving recently. But I still believe that there is more work to do. Novak’s average second serve speed is over 100 mph, I believe. So if he doesn’t get his first serves in, he knows that he can rely on his second serves to get the job done.

        Rafa did well in this match against Fed, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have to work on his serve. I am sure he will want to continue to improve that aspect of his game, along with his forehand.

      • It’s not ‘improved’, he just knows how to handle the topspin peppering better. On mid-to-low level shots, Fed’s BH was never a liability. It’s the weight of the groundstrokes and crucially the height that put him at a natural liability.

      • I actually dont think so. Fed’s BH was very solid back in 2006-2007 and thats why he could beat Rafa so convincingly on indoor HCs.

        Fed’s BH may have more varieties now but not necessarily more solid. Rafa could handle Fed on indoor HCs better these days, of course thats because Rafa is a better HC player now and Fed is getting ‘old’ these days.

      • I am quite surprised you people thikn his backhand was better in 06-07! it is a much more effective shot now and I am referring only to the backhan drive /topspin backhand!

        Fed’s backhand was helpless against Rafa on so many occasions but they he went on a mission to improve it. make it more of a weapon in baseline rallies. He always had the timing but lacked power. Finding penetration was a challenge for him. Then, he started improving it big time. Instead of me going into details of how he has improved it, you guys can simply read what federer himself and what rafa have said about federer’s backhand!

        Fed punished rafa in WTF 2011 and his backhand was SO DEVASTATING … then, rafa played him in the AO SF in 2012 after a couple of months. Rafa started the match attacking roger’s backhand but he suffered! Roger was punishing him! roger hit an incredibly powerful CC backhand off a slice backhand by rafa and this barrage forced rafa to change tactics. he actually started going for fed’s forehand more and them took control of the match! Later, in the press conference, he explained that he is well aware of the danger roger’s backhand can now pose and he said it was a very improved shot over the years.

        At the end of 2011, this is what Fed had to say:

        “I used to have a weak backhand. But then everybody played to my backhand. So obviously I was always going to improve my backhand eventually. I think the same thing kind of happened to many different players. I don’t think Novak’s forehand used to be a strength. Today it’s a weapon. Rafa the same thing. He used to struggle if you hit hard into his forehand. Today it’s no problem for him anymore.”

      • Then, federer himself talked about his improved backhands. In 2013, he said

        β€œThankfully to all my opponents over the years who have played a million balls to my backhand, it’s actually gotten pretty good. I can really thank them in a big way for improving my backhand.”

        And recently, before shanghai, federer once again said that his rivals (novak and rafa), esp rafa, have really forced him to change his game!

        Also, the new racket has definitely made his backhand more powerful. His backhand is MUCH stronger and better than it was in 06-07!

      • I dont see Fed’s BH improvement when facing Rafa on clay. In the past Fed’s BH only had problem when facing Rafa on clay. On grass and HCs, not much issue. On indoor HCs Fed always won.

        Like I said, Fed’s BH back then was more solid, now more varieties. Fed beating Rafa on indoor HC was the norm from last time till now except in 2013 so its not Fed’s BH thats the concern. Fed still was losing to Rafa on clay in 2013 Rome Final, improved BH or not.

      • naaa.. it’s not like that in my view! if fed kept losing to rafa on clay, that does not mean his backhand did not improve! poor way of looking at it! you have not taken into account how much rafa’s forehand had evolved leading up to 2013. All these players made great improvements. also, 2013 is not a good period to judge federer…

        Fed’s backhand was lethal in 2011 RG! clearly more aggressive than it was in 05-07. He was doing a lot more damage. It has become a bigger weapon…it is obvious i think.

        He was winning matches in 2006-07 for other reasons. Not because his backhand was more solid than it is today! He HIMSELF has said it a gazilion times his backhand used to be weak and it has improved quite a lot. It is less about greater variety but rather more about becoming a more offensive shot. He has made it into a weapon…. Not only rafa but even novak was exploiting it. AO 2008 SF was the first time someone started doing it on a consistent basis….

        His timing was incredible in 06-07 and he was great at spreading the court.

        Fed’s backhand ROS has also become more offensive.

      • You see, Fed talked about his improved BH but improved can be in the form of hitting it with more varieties and yes more offensive but that doesnt mean it wont break down. Rafa was pummeling Fed’s BH in this match and was able to extract errors from Fed even on indoor HCs. Rafa wasnt able to do that to Fed in 2006/2007 at Shanghai TMC.

        I dont remember that in the past any other player could exploit Fed’s BH other than Rafa. Its only after 2008 or 2009 that other players started attacking Fed’s BH more but without much success. Not even Novak or Murray could do what Rafa did to Fed’s BH. In fact Novak is better at exploiting Fed’s FHs these days.

  13. I thought rafa was gonna win during the third set but fed fought hard and stayed with it. Like Ricky said just a few forehands in the 4-3 game cost him both players seemed kind of nervous and edgy imo. Rafa couldn’t really do as much as he should’ve on Feds serve though. I don’t think he was used to it at first since they haven’t played in a while cuz he was shanking lots of returns early on. I honestly think Rogers serve was maybe the most key part of the match for him. He was able to throw in aces and big serves when he needed to. Anyways it was a pretty high quality match overall in my opinion. ALLEZ Roger!!!! On to Paris.

    • vamosrafa,

      I agree with your take on the state of Fed’s backhand. I also think what Fed himself said is extremely important. He ought to know! I remember in the 2009 AO final how the commentators and pundits and everyone was talking about how Rafa used his backhand to brilliant effect. He also exposed Fed’s backhand as a weakness. Rafa was praised to the heavens for being smart enough to go after this weaker shot in Fed’s game. I think that’s why Fed gave credit to his opponents for forcing him to improve his backhand.

    • Congrats to you? Come on! You didn’t say that Fed would in 3 sets. You said it would be Fed in 2 sets. NID! So keep it real and own what you really said.

      This was not how you said it would be. Remember? You were not expecting Rafa to make a match out of it. Which he did.

  14. Rafa was unprepared for how good Roger was in the 1st set because Roger has been rubbish all week, if the truth be known. Roger served exceptionally well and didn’t make as many errors by his standards. Rafa could have played better, but it’s a process and he didn’t get blown off court. At the same time, it could have gone either way.

    Everyone agrees that indoor hard court is not the best place for Rafa’s game.

    #no need to cry over split milk

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