It will be the the 34th meeting between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal when two friendly rivals battle for the Basel title on Sunday. They have not faced each other at a tournament this small since Dubai in 2006.
On the day after Halloween, fans at the Swiss Indoors Basel will be getting an extra-special treat. After all, it is not every day that the tennis world witnesses Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal square off at a 500-point event.
In fact, the last time Federer and Nadal faced each other at a tournament of this level was way back in 2006 in the Dubai title match. That remains their only previous encounter to date outside of a Grand Slam, Masters 1000, or year-end championship.
Heading into Sunday’s showdown, the overall head-to-head series stands at 23-10 in favor of Nadal. The Spaniard has won five in a row dating back to the start of the 2013 season. Federer’s last victory over his nemesis came in 2012 Indian Wells semifinals via a 6-3, 6-4 decision. Even on hard courts, Nadal is 9-6 lifetime against the Swiss and he has won their last four such meetings. Federer does, however, have one edge in their past history: he is 4-1 at Nadal’s expense on indoor hard courts.
The 34-year-old not only has the benefit of playing indoors for this one, but also at home in the friendly confines of Switzerland. Federer is an awesome 60-9 lifetime at this tournament, has won it six times, and has now reached the title match in 10 consecutive appearances. The 17-time major champion has advanced so far this week by taking out Mikhail Kukushkin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, David Goffin, and Jack Sock–surrendering sets to Kohlschreiber and Goffin along the way.
Nadal has gone the distance three times already and came close to doing the same–if not losing altogether–in his semifinal versus Richard Gasquet. The third seed, who had previously outlasted Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic, recovered from a break down in the first set and survived an extremely close second to beat Gasquet 6-4, 7-6(7).
“It’s been a very special week for me,” said Nadal, who added that he felt good after a brief knee-injury scare at 3-1 in the opening set on Saturday.
Nearing the end of what has been a disappointing year by his standards, Nadal is suddenly picking up the pace during what is traditionally by far his worst stretch of any season. The former world No. 1 reached the Beijing final and the Shanghai semis prior to this impressive Basel performance. Since blowing a two-set lead against Fabio Fognini at the U.S. Open, Nadal boasts a 12-2 record.
“It’s definitely a bit of a dream final,” Federer assured. “It’s never quite happened (in Basel). That it’s me against Rafa towards the back end of our careers is nice for the tournament, great for the Swiss fans–who’ve never seen this matchup on Swiss grounds.”
“I have played against Roger hundreds of times around the world,” Nadal commented. “I never played at his home (Switzerland), and tomorrow is a chance.”
It’s also a great opportunity for Federer, but at this point it his hard to like his chances in this particular matchup under any circumstances. This summer, of course, is when an on-fire Federer would have been a heavy favorite over Nadal. Fast forward a few months and Federer’s form–and perhaps motivation–has dipped considerably. He is no longer playing the kind of tennis that can blow his opponent of the court in two quick sets. Nadal, who would have an obvious mental edge in any long three-setter, should be able to capitalize.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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discuss
i like federer more as a fan but i can not turn down +250 on Nadal especially 1) Federer is in lower than usual form, 2) Nadal won their last 5 meetings, 3) Nadal i think is more hungry for a title than Federer. +250 FTW
however the only thing that scares me is Nadals possible knee problem. I know he seems like he is fine in the gasquet match but these sports injuries can cause problems hours after they occur. I had a separated shoulder that didnt affect me until 3 hours later and then i was like a handicap in pain not able to use my arm.
anyone who is betting real money should avoid this match like THE PLAGUE
+250 is amazing value
No.
+250 is unavoidable
Yep
Whatever happened in the preceding rounds to the final is irrelevant to the match. They were playing very different players. Rafa will need to serve well and Roger will need to shank less.
lol!!!! I think Rafa has been serving quite well…..his return game is better than I can remember although on important points he seems too impatient, but otherwise based on where Rafa has come from in almost two years he is making great progress, and for the first time in more months i can remember, I think this match is Rafa’s to lose. I dont think Fed and his fans are happy to be playing Rafa at all but I think Rafa and his fans are quite looking forward to it!! Vamos Rafa, you can sooooooooooooo do this!!! This trophy is YOURS!!!!
Rafa’s level to beat Roger in the 23 matches he has won has been much higher than it is today.
Rafa is 1-4 indoors with his lone win in 2013 when Rafa was at his best and Fed was at a career low.
Unfortunately, that is not the case at the moment.
If Federer loses under these circumstances, it will be a massive surprise.
Sure Ricky even emphatically said they wouldn’t even meet, so you can’t go by what he thinks.
This one is all too easy to call.
So far Rafa has been playing mental minions that choke under the slightest pressure (I refer you to Gasket’s two double faults when serving for the second set as Exhibit A).
He won’t be able to rely on that against Federer.
Too many unforced errors (counted or not) will be Rafa’s undoing.
This is Rafa’s to lose I agree. And he will. Between the ears.
Fed in two.
#NID
Rafa hasn’t been playing mental minions! Since when? Oh and who has Fed played so far? Rafa has had the kind of draw that would be considered a nightmare under any circumstances. Remember, he was slated to meet Stan until he lost to Karlovic. Rosol, Dimi and Cilic have all been tough match ups for Rafa even when he was playing well because they have the kind of game to present a challenge. This court only gives them that more of an advantage. Rafa did quite well to beat all of them and show some of his best tennis this year.
Now that may not be saying much considering how Rafa has played all year, but it’s still an indication that he’s on the way back and showing signs of his old self. He’s shown a good deal of resilience, but most important of all to me is that his will to win has returned. This is Rafa’s greatest strength, the reason why he has won matches that on paper, he should have lost. That is something that Fed has never been able to counter successfully because Rafa has a way of imposing himself in their matches.
It’s true that this is Basel where Fed has been King in his home town. Also, Fed would have the advantage on this surface. But that doesn’t mean he is a sure bet to win.
I cannot see any way that Rafa will lose this in straight sets. He’s been fighting too hard this week. He won’t go away easily. Not this time.
Amen to that, brother!!!
@NNY,
The point regarding rafa’s will to win , is very important here. A new kind of energy seems to be driving rafa now. He was so subdued throughout 2015 but now he is fighting like a lion. I hope this can be the deciding factor tomorrow!
Gasket and Dimitwit are known for choking. Cilic and Rosol have a combined tennis IQ of an overclocked tennis ball machine.
I agree with absolutely everything except for your first and third last sentence.
So that’s not too bad for sure, no?
For once I agree with hawkeye. Must be Halloween or something.
“third last”?
do you struggle with doing the English?
Who was the third last player to be No. 1?
Besides aren’t you the one who wrote they wouldn’t meet in the final?
Sounds like you’re the one struggling with the English to me.
“third last” is not a correct phrase, so I have no idea what sentence you are talking about
Ricky under your site rules, you broke Rule I so you should state that you are exempt.
While third last may not be a correct phrase, you are being disingenuous when you claim not to know what sentence I am talking about.
i assume you mean the last sentence for the third paragraph from the bottom. Not sure how you can disagree with that (or any other sentence in the preview–seeing as it is not a blog and I did not express any opinions that were up for debate until the actual pick).
All this over a missed hyphen. But now at least I know what got you all hot and bothered.
I trust the CBC and Ottawa Citizen (and myself) over a tennis blogger when it comes to the English language:
“They replaced the two-person desks with longer desks shared by five to seven MPs. In the second-last row, to save space, the regular seats were replaced by drop-down theatre seating.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-house-of-commons-seating-1.3272354
From a raucous hockey arena in southern Ontario to an oceanside Nunavut lookout, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau spent the second-last week of the campaign staying carefully within the lines of his upbeat strategy.
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/justin-trudeau-rides-sunny-strategy-in-second-last-week-of-campaign
a hyphen would be in incorrect too haha
“i assume you mean the last sentence for the third paragraph from the bottom.”
No, for that I would have said “the last sentence in the third-last paragraph. ”
But you already knew that.
Ricky Dimon says:
October 28, 2015 at 11:31 pm
he wont play Fed
Not sure what “wont” means in this context. In the English language, it usually means become accustomed.
In hindsight, I’m now guessing you meant “will”. Ok good.
Alright enough of this before I’m banned again.
And I wasn’t referring to your blog. Your blog was flawlessly perfect as usual.
I was responding to nny’s response to mine.
Nope. A hyphen is correct.
Hyphen? We talkin’ ’bout hyphen. Hyphen.
Tiebreaker would be incorrect too haha.
Rafa has a number of firsts and record, but i have to say, that for someone with so many accomplishments and a H2H with the top 30 players than no player in history can even dream of, he is certainly ALWAYS the underdog in ANY match that he plays!!! Smh….Rafa for the win in three!!! Lets hope Mr Shankalot can stop peeing himself when Rafa starts to pile on the pressure!!
Rafa had quite a few shanklings himself today ICYMI.
4th-last sentence LOL. Specifically,
“I cannot see any way that Rafa will lose this in straight sets.”
I can.
I can 2
Rafa in two sets. No surprise and expected, that Roger will have 30 to 40 UE in the match.
this
No. There is no precident indoors against an out of form Rafa.
Rafa is not out of form now. In 2013 an in form Rafa made the final of Beijing, SF of Shanghai, lost poorly to Novak and Delpo respectively. Rafa in 2015 has not done any worse than in 2013 at both places. He reaches an indoor HC final now, when was the last time he did that? Its still 2013, at WTF, and thats one of his best years.
The last few times Fed beat Rafa on indoor HCs (all at YEC or WTF) Fed was in top form and playing baseline tennis, and the last time he won was in 2011! This is the first time a net rushing Fed is meeting Rafa on indoor courts and Fed isnt in top form unlike in the past. I dont see Fed having any advantage over Rafa, its 50-50 imo.
I stopped after your first sentence as I completely disagree with your premise.
An in form Rafa wouldn’t have lost 62 62 in any final to Djokovic.
Its OK to disagree. If you think an out of form Rafa could reach three SFs including two finals on the HCs, by all means think so …
Seems like a passive aggressive echo.
Its ok that you disagree; if you think an out of form Rafa could reach two finals and one SF on the HCs during this part of the season, then by all means think so.
Phew that’s a relief. I was worried I wouldn’t get your permission.
Also, if hawkeye thinks an in form Roger can lose to Albert Ramos that’s his privilege.
Straw man argument. You’re welcome.
There’s no need for sarcasm, hawkeye.
But yet there’s need for passive aggression like giving me permission. Epic.
If you want to view it as giving you permission then I’ve nothing to say.
I said Rafa is not out of form but that doesnt mean he’s in top form. He’s not the all conquering Nadal of old but he still can play well and clutch enough to beat his opponents, except one Novak.
There is always a middle ground, just like Novak during 2012-2014 for example, not all conquering like in 2011 and 2015, but good enough to beat most others to win a slam a year; not top form but good enough form to win some and remain as no.1
It’s precedent!
beatdown city!
Guys, i even if you’ve already seen this, it is still worth watching again……send chills down my spine……..just great STUFF!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plGC4-9FmmA
Great stuff. Breathtaking. However just makes you miss that Rafa all the more . Where has he gone?
One of the most welcome sights in the past few weeks has been watching an exhuberant Rafa celebrating his winners in his inimitable way. This more than anything is a barometer of his return to thriving on the thrill of the competition. Something which has been missing for far to long.. In fact I don’t think he was doing it so much even in 2013.
So the dream final is here!
Rafa’s form is recovering quite nicely and he is in so much better control of his nerves now. Falling behind in the scoreline is no longer affecting him the way it was a few months ago. Rafa had a brutal draw and he was done a fantastic job so far. Not many were expecting him to reach the final but he is progressing so nicely.
Rafa would be in a good state mentally. He is 23-10 against Fed and also won their last match indoors. While he would be wary of roger’s brilliance on indoor courts, he would be confident of winning the title as long as he is able to play at a high level.
I am quite interested in seeing how this match will play out. The last time these two played was in january 2014 and I must say Federer’s game has evolved A LOT since then. He is more aggressive now. He covers the net much better and is more mindful at the net now. Roger would probably be thinking that he is 4-1 indoors agains rafa and the one he lost in 2013 was when he was playing bad tennis.
The conditions, the surface, all favor roger. I am also interested in seeing what would rafa’s ROS positioning be. He made it clear he would stand on the baseline to return serve from now on and this is something he needs to do to prepare for 2016. However, he varied his position against Cilic and on occasions against Gasquet. Returning from deep behind the baseline has worked well against Federer but the current Federer is poised to make rafa pay for weak returns from deep in the court. S&V on second serves is also a good option for roger.
Also, don’t forget that on these quick indoor courts, roger’s backhand can handle rafa’s CC forehand a bit better. In their previous indoor matches, roger found it relatively easy to spread the court with his backhand and then attack with his forehand. Bounce is lower so roger can time his backhands better. He won’t stay deep behind the baseline like Gasquet did.
Rafa MUST serve well and lost lose good court positioning. This one is difficult to call ! Very very eager to see how the changes in roger’s game will hold up against the ultimate test.
Great post VR but come on man.
Make. A. Pick. 🙂
Jason Goodall actually said before today’s match that Rafa had a slim chance of winning the title.
Unreal.
I mean sure I’m saying it but I’m just having a laugh. I think he has a 30% chance but that’s more than a slim chance.
haha….
I am not too clear about a few things but I think, rafa’s fighting spirit may well give him the edge! Only rafa knows how fresh his legs are. I hope he will have plenty of energy.
I pick rafa in 3 tough sets.
On the other hand, if roger wins in 2, i will not at all be shocked or something This match will be a good indication of how confident about his improvements rafa is at the moment .
I agree with that. If Rafa is confident and played 95% of his best, he will win.
But that’s a massive “if”.
yeah…I agree that there are a few questions marks surrounding rafa…. he is doing a very good job but has he improved enough? Tomorrow’s final will have all the answers.
Let’s see what Fedberg can do against Rafa 🙂
Beautiful.
Hope we get a whiff of a new version of this before Rafa hangs his racket.
A good way to start would be to put Fed in his place tomorrow (even though he already is)
Who ya got Shireling??
Rafa is not at 95% of his best now. So if that is the criteria for this match, then he would inevitably lose. However, I do not accept that criteria. It’s going to take more time for Rafa to get that close to his best. This was never going to happen overnight or even over a few months. But the key is that Rafa has improved quite a bit, especially with his mental strength. That was the key component that was missing. That is what Rafa needs because with that quality back now, it’s not always about him playing his best.
I am expecting this to go three sets unless something is wrong with Rafa. If I am wrong, then so be it. Tomorrow will be a good indicator of where Rafa is at because taking on Fed on this court is not a gimme. But I am looking forward to it.
Any news on Rafas knee? Concerned about that. He may have played a lot after that in the match but at times, pain resurfaces later.
he said it is totally fine…
Sanju (at 2:36 am).
It’s night in Basel…
fed’s form has not been too great this week. But tomorrow, he will likely be a lot more focused because it is rafa on the other side.
Come on rafa, show no mercy! 24-10 is what we want
Reblogged this on Tennis Abides.
I am expecting Fed to come out playing better than he has in his last few matches. He will bring it because there’s a title on the line, because it’s in his home town and because he’s playing Rafa.
We will have to see what Rafa brings to this match. My one caveat is that Rafa cannot afford to be broken in his first service game.
Rafa has gotten broken early in all his sets and then gotten the break back. He cannot afford to do that here given it is Feds fav surface and Feds serving. That will determine outcome of this match.
Federer’s serve: if he serves the way he did in two out of the three sets in his last two matches Rafa would win in straight sets.
But this is the final. Roger will bring his best serve today. Not so sure he can take care of the UFs however.
The same applies to Rafa. As far as his knee is concerned it is not a problem unless it severely restricts his movement – his pain threshold during a match is legion.
I agree this is Rafa’s match to lose so I’m steeling myself not to be too disappointed if he does but I’m plumping for Rafa in 3
#HopeSpringsEternal
Keep your mind focused and sharp like a laser beam, stay calm and be strong like steel, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CStslpRXIAA-F2M.png:medium
augusta, I miss seeing your cheering gif here.
Rafa has played 2 players with OHBH leading up to this, he has also seen off a determined Rosol, Baby Fed – who is trying desperately to move up the rankings and Cilic who many thought was the overwhelming favourite against Rafa. He knows Roger’s game well enough and as for SABR, I doubt that Rafa will be bothered by that. As Roger says, playing Rafa is totally different to playing anyone else.