Basel final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Federer XXXIV

Fed 2It will be the the 34th meeting between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal when two friendly rivals battle for the Basel title on Sunday. They have not faced each other at a tournament this small since Dubai in 2006.

On the day after Halloween, fans at the Swiss Indoors Basel will be getting an extra-special treat. After all, it is not every day that the tennis world witnesses Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal square off at a 500-point event.

In fact, the last time Federer and Nadal faced each other at a tournament of this level was way back in 2006 in the Dubai title match. That remains their only previous encounter to date outside of a Grand Slam, Masters 1000, or year-end championship.

Heading into Sunday’s showdown, the overall head-to-head series stands at 23-10 in favor of Nadal. The Spaniard has won five in a row dating back to the start of the 2013 season. Federer’s last victory over his nemesis came in 2012 Indian Wells semifinals via a 6-3, 6-4 decision. Even on hard courts, Nadal is 9-6 lifetime against the Swiss and he has won their last four such meetings. Federer does, however, have one edge in their past history: he is 4-1 at Nadal’s expense on indoor hard courts.

The 34-year-old not only has the benefit of playing indoors for this one, but also at home in the friendly confines of Switzerland. Federer is an awesome 60-9 lifetime at this tournament, has won it six times, and has now reached the title match in 10 consecutive appearances. The 17-time major champion has advanced so far this week by taking out Mikhail Kukushkin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, David Goffin, and Jack Sock–surrendering sets to Kohlschreiber and Goffin along the way.

Nadal has gone the distance three times already and came close to doing the same–if not losing altogether–in his semifinal versus Richard Gasquet. The third seed, who had previously outlasted Lukas Rosol, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic, recovered from a break down in the first set and survived an extremely close second to beat Gasquet 6-4, 7-6(7).
Nadal 3 Miami prac
“It’s been a very special week for me,” said Nadal, who added that he felt good after a brief knee-injury scare at 3-1 in the opening set on Saturday.

Nearing the end of what has been a disappointing year by his standards, Nadal is suddenly picking up the pace during what is traditionally by far his worst stretch of any season. The former world No. 1 reached the Beijing final and the Shanghai semis prior to this impressive Basel performance. Since blowing a two-set lead against Fabio Fognini at the U.S. Open, Nadal boasts a 12-2 record.

“It’s definitely a bit of a dream final,” Federer assured. “It’s never quite happened (in Basel). That it’s me against Rafa towards the back end of our careers is nice for the tournament, great for the Swiss fans–who’ve never seen this matchup on Swiss grounds.”

“I have played against Roger hundreds of times around the world,” Nadal commented. “I never played at his home (Switzerland), and tomorrow is a chance.”

It’s also a great opportunity for Federer, but at this point it his hard to like his chances in this particular matchup under any circumstances. This summer, of course, is when an on-fire Federer would have been a heavy favorite over Nadal. Fast forward a few months and Federer’s form–and perhaps motivation–has dipped considerably. He is no longer playing the kind of tennis that can blow his opponent of the court in two quick sets. Nadal, who would have an obvious mental edge in any long three-setter, should be able to capitalize.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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40 Comments on Basel final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Federer XXXIV

  1. It’s either gonna be Fed in straights or Rafa in three. If Rafa can get the 1st set he might pull it off in straights but to me that’s the most unlikely outcome.

  2. Hawkeye: Why are you only focussing on Rafa’s level of play (which I agree is neither consistent nor back to his absolute best) and completely ignoring the erractic performance by Federer this week?

    Are you suggesting he has been faking bad in order to give his loyal Baselites a collective orgasm by suddenly displaying the majestic TMF at his very best?

  3. People keep saying Roger is in great form, conveniently forgetting that as defending champion he lost in the 1st round in Shanghai to non other than Albert Ramos.

  4. Rafa inflicted really deep scar into Fed’s heart.
    His mentality will never be ready to fight Rafa
    He does not believe he can beat Rafa, this is irrecoverable.
    Playing Rafa for the first time in Basel, 10th final becomes another heavy mental burden.
    Should he lose in his first meeting with Rafa here, he would feel bad.
    He will come out shaky, and be broken in his first game.

    Fed just does not have enough weapon to play defender who can attack in Nole and Rafa. He had enough problem with Murray in the past, all three are defenders who can counter attack. With the rest of the fields, he faces minimum challenge…

    • Sure whatevs.

      I’m sure Roger would be undefeated against Rafa off clay if it weren’t for those mental scars.

      No, he was just better than Roger. Simple as that. But unlikely today indoors with Rafa not yet back to full form.

  5. When the draw came out, everyone acknowledged that Rafa had a tough draw and Roger had an easy draw. Now that Rafa has come through his tough draw and Fed has had a few hiccups on his way, all of a sudden, some are trying to convince us that Fed has been imperious and Rafa has struggled.

  6. I agree with those saying rafa cannot afford to lose serve cheaply in the early stages of sets. Fed is a great front runner, and with his serve, he is going to turbo charge his way to the finish line. The strategy from fed would be to play ultra aggressive and take time away. He will drive his backhand second serve returns a lot more instead of slicing/chipping it.. we all know the net approaches will be aplenty. Mind you, he is a lot better at the net now but his net rushing game will see a next level challenge today as it is rafa on the other side.

    Come on Rafa!

  7. vr, no one can afford to lose serve at anytime against anyone. Rafa has dropped his serve far too many times but the plus side is, he has been able to dig himself out time and time again so that’s good. But he can’t count of being able to it every time so I’m sure his team are working on it.

  8. If Rafa loses it will be because he had a bad knee. If Roger loses it will be because his back flared up. This will be boring. I’m off to Sunday Mass.

  9. Rafa received 500.000 $ just to show up at this event…the organizers must be thrilled! It paid off completely! Wisely invested money indeed… ?

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